Twins Get Robbed
Well, there was finally something worth talking about this week in baseball. The Johan Santana deal finally went down. No he didn’t end up with the Yankees or the Red Sox, Johan will play next season as a Metropolitan. After the Yankees and Sox back off of their previous offers the Mets swoop in and steal the man widely considered the best pitcher on the planet. The deal landed the Twins four prospects. Centerfielder Carlos Gomez was the center piece of the deal, surrounded by three pitching prospects, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. With the Twins having one of the worst farm systems in the league prior to this trade, it is likely that one of the main goals in trading Santana was to get a quantity of prospects in return. It was widely speculated that the Twins were holding out for Mets prospect Fernando Martinez, and not Carlos Gomez, however after the Yankees and Red Sox backed off their offers, it is likely that the Twins settled for what they could get.
As far as evaluation of the trade, I’d say that Twins were robbed. In my opinion you can’t trade the best pitcher in the league and not get one elite prospect. Don’t get me wrong, they got a good quality of four prospects, but for me, I’d rather take one less prospect and get the elite guy I wanted. If all four of these guys reach their ceilings than yea it might turn out to be a steal for the Twins. However, since it is often the case with prospects that they don’t reach their full potential, or that in general most prospects never even make it to the show, it is likely that this is a bad deal for the Twins.
Johan Santana should get a boost, it is hard to believe that the best pitcher in baseball could gain value, but he does. He will move to the weaker division, where he will get to face a pitcher 2 or 3 times a game. Also he is going to be given a much better offensive lineup in New York. I mean his normal cy young type numbers might be a conservative projection this year.
Carlos Gomez is going to get a shot to be the starter in center field for the Twins going into the season. The guy has the talent to be a very solid everyday player in his prime. I personally do not think he is ready, but we will see in spring training. I think they would benefit from giving him at least a half a season in the minors before giving him the full time job. However, the Twins still feel like they might be able to compete, which may force them to give him the starting gig. He will play great defense but I do not think he is ready offensively. If he wins the job to start the year id say he could end up with around 12 home runs, and steal about 25 bases. He probably wont hit better than .260 though.
I’ve heard that Humber might have a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation this year. If that is the case, than the Twins are not going to be too good. He has been given some shots before and just didn’t look too good. He still has a decent ceiling, and maybe he figures it out with a change in scenery. I say that the Twins already have enough starting pitchers that are major league ready that Humber does not win a job to start the season. However, he will get a shot at some point during the year, and still has a middle to back end of a rotation type ceiling.
Deolis Guerra is really the cherry to this deal. He is a very young pitcher, but he has the ceiling of a front of the rotation starter. There is still a long ways for him to go, as he didn’t perform statistically as well as you’d want a guy with his stuff to. If the Twins can be patient with him and let him develop, this guy could end up being the prize. He has zero fantasy impact for the up coming season.
Kevin Mulvey is a guy who scouts often say has a #3 type ceiling. I don’t really see anything to like, I generally lower him to a #4 type guy. He projects as an inning eater who could fill out the back end of a rotation nicely. This is another guy who could end up getting a shot sometime during the season. If other starters do not do well or injuries overcome the big league club, Mulvey will get a shot this year. Other than that he will compete for a job in 2009. His fantasy value this season is not likely to be worth taking a shot on.
Other Notes:
The Erik Bedard to Seattle deal is all but complete, with rumors swirling that Adam Jones and George Sherrill have gone to Baltimore for physicals. I will discuss the entire deal next week assuming that the deal is actually completed. What do you think Mr. Angelos?
As far as evaluation of the trade, I’d say that Twins were robbed. In my opinion you can’t trade the best pitcher in the league and not get one elite prospect. Don’t get me wrong, they got a good quality of four prospects, but for me, I’d rather take one less prospect and get the elite guy I wanted. If all four of these guys reach their ceilings than yea it might turn out to be a steal for the Twins. However, since it is often the case with prospects that they don’t reach their full potential, or that in general most prospects never even make it to the show, it is likely that this is a bad deal for the Twins.
Johan Santana should get a boost, it is hard to believe that the best pitcher in baseball could gain value, but he does. He will move to the weaker division, where he will get to face a pitcher 2 or 3 times a game. Also he is going to be given a much better offensive lineup in New York. I mean his normal cy young type numbers might be a conservative projection this year.
Carlos Gomez is going to get a shot to be the starter in center field for the Twins going into the season. The guy has the talent to be a very solid everyday player in his prime. I personally do not think he is ready, but we will see in spring training. I think they would benefit from giving him at least a half a season in the minors before giving him the full time job. However, the Twins still feel like they might be able to compete, which may force them to give him the starting gig. He will play great defense but I do not think he is ready offensively. If he wins the job to start the year id say he could end up with around 12 home runs, and steal about 25 bases. He probably wont hit better than .260 though.
I’ve heard that Humber might have a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation this year. If that is the case, than the Twins are not going to be too good. He has been given some shots before and just didn’t look too good. He still has a decent ceiling, and maybe he figures it out with a change in scenery. I say that the Twins already have enough starting pitchers that are major league ready that Humber does not win a job to start the season. However, he will get a shot at some point during the year, and still has a middle to back end of a rotation type ceiling.
Deolis Guerra is really the cherry to this deal. He is a very young pitcher, but he has the ceiling of a front of the rotation starter. There is still a long ways for him to go, as he didn’t perform statistically as well as you’d want a guy with his stuff to. If the Twins can be patient with him and let him develop, this guy could end up being the prize. He has zero fantasy impact for the up coming season.
Kevin Mulvey is a guy who scouts often say has a #3 type ceiling. I don’t really see anything to like, I generally lower him to a #4 type guy. He projects as an inning eater who could fill out the back end of a rotation nicely. This is another guy who could end up getting a shot sometime during the season. If other starters do not do well or injuries overcome the big league club, Mulvey will get a shot this year. Other than that he will compete for a job in 2009. His fantasy value this season is not likely to be worth taking a shot on.
Other Notes:
The Erik Bedard to Seattle deal is all but complete, with rumors swirling that Adam Jones and George Sherrill have gone to Baltimore for physicals. I will discuss the entire deal next week assuming that the deal is actually completed. What do you think Mr. Angelos?
