SP Effectiveness System: The Fantasy Application
Last week I finished my database and turned all of my research, explanations, and statistics on evaluating Starting Pitchers into an 83-page register that Brad Stewart was gracious enough to post here at MLB Front Office. The register holds career and seasonal statistics dating all the way back to 2000 and can greatly aid your fantasy team. The lone problem I foresee with how it may be able to help you is that, unless you understand how and why the system works, the register can be pretty intimidating.
My whole goal in sabermetrics has always been to provide my readers with accurate and poignant research and explanations while breaking everything down so that even the least stat-savvy person can understand what I am discussing. Due to this, I felt compelled to explain the register a bit and how you can apply it to your fantasy baseball strategy in order to build an extremely solid starting rotation.
The register can be found here at MLB Front Office as well as my homepage, www.ericjseidman.com.
I have to thank Jeffrey Panehal, a loyal reader of mine, for bringing this topic up. Jeff sparked the idea of parsing the data to find those who are steadily improving to aid him with his fantasy team, the Fort Wayne Newtons.
Applying the SP Effectiveness System
Since my system takes into account a wide array of statistics (most of which are counted in fantasy baseball leagues) those who earn the highest number of SP Effectiveness Points are generally the best starting pitchers to have in a given year. Now, the system is not truly tailored to work during the season yet, but in this article I am going to provide you with results from 2005-2007 based on some observational tendencies I made.
I am not, by any means, going to tell you who to draft or when to draft him but I am going to break down the starting pitchers into different categories based on the findings in my database from the last three years.
Different SP Categories
Not every starting pitcher is going to find himself in one of these categories. Those not included, simply put, showed no upward or downward trend. For instance, Jason Marquis posted a +34 in my system in 2005, a –2 in 2006, and a +19 in 2007. There really is no trend or tendency there. He was as effective as a high-end #3 starter in 2005, ineffective in 2006, and a #4 starter in 2007. I’m not saying that he is a bad pitcher or one that you should completely avoid but he will not be included in this article (other than right now) because he has shown no sign of consistency (positive or negative) since 2005.
That being said, I am breaking the SP’s into six different categories: Steady #1’s, Steady #2’s, Total Pts Increasers, Tot/Gm Increasers, Total Pts Decreasers, and Tot/Gm Decreasers. The last four categories refer to those who have seen their numbers in the titled statistic increase or decrease during all three seasons (or both seasons if they only pitched in 2006 and 2007).
The Steady #1’s category refers to only those who have posted an NL +50 or higher or an AL +47 or higher in their seasons during that span. The Steady #2’s category refers to those who have posted an NL +36 to +49, or better, or an AL +34 to +46, or better.
I have also included a few pitchers in this category that posted two #1 or #2-caliber seasons from 2005-2007. As long as the non #1 or #2 season came in 2006, and was sandwiched by two better seasons, they qualify for this category. The major example is Mark Buehrle.
Buehrle has posted a +45 or higher in every season of his career except 2006. In 2005 he posted a +56, in 2006 he went all the way down to a +18, and in 2007 he shot back up to a +59. The fact that he has been so consistently good in his career and jumped all the way up to such a high score in 2007 tells me 2006 was most likely a fluke, thereby qualifying him for this category.
Another thing to keep in mind is that guys with very high scores are not included in the “decrease” statistics. Johan and Halladay have decreased from 2005 to 2007 but their scores have been so high that this statistically proves what people have said – that a down year from one of these guys is still better than an up year for most others.
The positive categories (everything that does not have the word “decrease” in it) consist of players you may want to look out for. I highly suggest you download my register and refer to the Effectiveness Points each year for those who have increased. Some will increase but still be at a low total. IE – Daniel Cabrera has actually increased his Eff. Pts and Eff. Pts/Gm in 2005, 2006, and 2007, but his total SP Effectiveness Score is still relatively low despite the improvement. The SP Effectiveness Scores will be shown progressing from 2005 to 2007.
Total Pts Increasers
Keep in mind that these players increased from 2005 to 2006 AND 2006 to 2007, or if they only pitched two years, increased from year one to year two. I did not include players who decreased from year one to year two but increased from year two to year three.
Tot/GM Increasers
The same rule from the previous category applies – must increase every year.
Total Pts Decreasers
The same rule from the previous category applies – must decrease every year.
Tot/GM Decreasers
The same rule from the previous category applies – must decrease every year.
If you want to use these results to find the players that are showing the most positive upward trends, find the highest total on the Total Pts Increasers who is the highest on the Tot/GM Increasers. In this case, Cole Hamels would fit that bill. Hamels increased his total score by +48 points and his Tot/GM by 1.58. Gil Meche, CC Sabathia, and James Shields would come next. Again, this is not a suggestion as to who the best pitchers in the league are, as those would be in the Steady #1’s or Steady #2’s but these Increasers and Decreasers categories show us which pitchers are steadily improving or declining.
To determine which players to stay away from refer to the register to see their year by year scores. The reason I suggest that is because some players show decline in their effectiveness due to having such a good 2005. Dontrelle had such an effective 2005 that it was very hard to improve upon and so his decline, while vast, has to be partly attributed to how good his 2005 turned out.
There you have it. This is the best way to apply my register to fantasy. You could also just look at improvements from 2006 to 2007 to help filter results. The register is vast and contains a ton of statistics and data.
Another way to utilize it would be to examine which pitchers are consistently unlucky (better than barometers) or lucky (worse than their barometers) as a way of predicting improvement.
My whole goal in sabermetrics has always been to provide my readers with accurate and poignant research and explanations while breaking everything down so that even the least stat-savvy person can understand what I am discussing. Due to this, I felt compelled to explain the register a bit and how you can apply it to your fantasy baseball strategy in order to build an extremely solid starting rotation.
The register can be found here at MLB Front Office as well as my homepage, www.ericjseidman.com.
I have to thank Jeffrey Panehal, a loyal reader of mine, for bringing this topic up. Jeff sparked the idea of parsing the data to find those who are steadily improving to aid him with his fantasy team, the Fort Wayne Newtons.
Since my system takes into account a wide array of statistics (most of which are counted in fantasy baseball leagues) those who earn the highest number of SP Effectiveness Points are generally the best starting pitchers to have in a given year. Now, the system is not truly tailored to work during the season yet, but in this article I am going to provide you with results from 2005-2007 based on some observational tendencies I made.
I am not, by any means, going to tell you who to draft or when to draft him but I am going to break down the starting pitchers into different categories based on the findings in my database from the last three years.
Not every starting pitcher is going to find himself in one of these categories. Those not included, simply put, showed no upward or downward trend. For instance, Jason Marquis posted a +34 in my system in 2005, a –2 in 2006, and a +19 in 2007. There really is no trend or tendency there. He was as effective as a high-end #3 starter in 2005, ineffective in 2006, and a #4 starter in 2007. I’m not saying that he is a bad pitcher or one that you should completely avoid but he will not be included in this article (other than right now) because he has shown no sign of consistency (positive or negative) since 2005.
That being said, I am breaking the SP’s into six different categories: Steady #1’s, Steady #2’s, Total Pts Increasers, Tot/Gm Increasers, Total Pts Decreasers, and Tot/Gm Decreasers. The last four categories refer to those who have seen their numbers in the titled statistic increase or decrease during all three seasons (or both seasons if they only pitched in 2006 and 2007).
The Steady #1’s category refers to only those who have posted an NL +50 or higher or an AL +47 or higher in their seasons during that span. The Steady #2’s category refers to those who have posted an NL +36 to +49, or better, or an AL +34 to +46, or better.
I have also included a few pitchers in this category that posted two #1 or #2-caliber seasons from 2005-2007. As long as the non #1 or #2 season came in 2006, and was sandwiched by two better seasons, they qualify for this category. The major example is Mark Buehrle.
Buehrle has posted a +45 or higher in every season of his career except 2006. In 2005 he posted a +56, in 2006 he went all the way down to a +18, and in 2007 he shot back up to a +59. The fact that he has been so consistently good in his career and jumped all the way up to such a high score in 2007 tells me 2006 was most likely a fluke, thereby qualifying him for this category.
Another thing to keep in mind is that guys with very high scores are not included in the “decrease” statistics. Johan and Halladay have decreased from 2005 to 2007 but their scores have been so high that this statistically proves what people have said – that a down year from one of these guys is still better than an up year for most others.
The positive categories (everything that does not have the word “decrease” in it) consist of players you may want to look out for. I highly suggest you download my register and refer to the Effectiveness Points each year for those who have increased. Some will increase but still be at a low total. IE – Daniel Cabrera has actually increased his Eff. Pts and Eff. Pts/Gm in 2005, 2006, and 2007, but his total SP Effectiveness Score is still relatively low despite the improvement. The SP Effectiveness Scores will be shown progressing from 2005 to 2007.
Keep in mind that these players increased from 2005 to 2006 AND 2006 to 2007, or if they only pitched two years, increased from year one to year two. I did not include players who decreased from year one to year two but increased from year two to year three.
The same rule from the previous category applies – must increase every year.
The same rule from the previous category applies – must decrease every year.
The same rule from the previous category applies – must decrease every year.
If you want to use these results to find the players that are showing the most positive upward trends, find the highest total on the Total Pts Increasers who is the highest on the Tot/GM Increasers. In this case, Cole Hamels would fit that bill. Hamels increased his total score by +48 points and his Tot/GM by 1.58. Gil Meche, CC Sabathia, and James Shields would come next. Again, this is not a suggestion as to who the best pitchers in the league are, as those would be in the Steady #1’s or Steady #2’s but these Increasers and Decreasers categories show us which pitchers are steadily improving or declining.
To determine which players to stay away from refer to the register to see their year by year scores. The reason I suggest that is because some players show decline in their effectiveness due to having such a good 2005. Dontrelle had such an effective 2005 that it was very hard to improve upon and so his decline, while vast, has to be partly attributed to how good his 2005 turned out.
There you have it. This is the best way to apply my register to fantasy. You could also just look at improvements from 2006 to 2007 to help filter results. The register is vast and contains a ton of statistics and data.
Another way to utilize it would be to examine which pitchers are consistently unlucky (better than barometers) or lucky (worse than their barometers) as a way of predicting improvement.
