Here’s a little glimpse into the life of yours truly; see if you can imagine it: At my desk sits my computer (I have a HP Pavilion Laptop for those of you who were wondering). On the left of my laptop sits a stack of old ESPN and Sports Illustrated Magazines which date back to the stone age and on the right of my laptop sits my phone, some old take out food, and a heart. This heart is the best kind of heart: It’s filled with chocolate from Valentine’s Day. As I reached into the box to grab another chocolate, I began to think. Fantasy Baseball is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re going to get.

Please excuse the terrible cliché, but the sentiment rings true. Therefore, today, I thought I would take a look back at the top 25 ranked players from pre-season 2007. There are a number of things we can learn from this list.


The players within the top 25 haven’t actually changed that dramatically. However, placement within the top 25 has moved pretty significantly which is to be expected. Baseball is not an exact science; fluctuation is bound to occur. Let’s take a look at those who moved the most and try to understand why they were valued so much higher last year.

Albert Pujols is the first person to pop out. He was the unanimous first selection last year and there was almost no risk in selecting him. Then, he had a down year which was marked by an injury. Recently, even more negative news has come out about his injury which has led to a sharp drop in his value. Fantasy owners tend to overreact. This was the case with Alex Rodriguez last year and Carlos Beltran a few years ago. Nevertheless, when it comes to an injury, you can never be too certain. The first couple rounds of the draft are about minimizing the risk, so you can make riskier picks later on. Drafting an injury prone star is not a good way to start.

Alfonso Soriano was extremely highly touted last season after his superb 2006 campaign. He could have almost lived up to the hype too, if he hadn’t been injured. Expect a nice rebound season from Soriano. I wouldn’t put 40 stolen bases and 35 homeruns out of the realm of possibility.

Perhaps the biggest lesson fantasy owners learned last year was not to overvalue starting pitching. Johan Santana takes a dive in this year’s top 25 because owners now realize how easy it is to fill out your roster with later round pitching and still succeed. Perhaps fantasy owners also learned, from Chris Carpenter, how risky it can be to draft a pitcher in the early rounds. Pitchers are extremely injury prone, more so than a batter, which makes them risky anytime before the mid-rounds of the draft.

One might think that fantasy owners would have learned from Alex Rodriguez not to get down on a stud after one “off year.” However, this doesn’t appear to be the case. Travis Hafner has dropped very significantly in the rankings this year due to his bad year last year. If you can snag Hafner around his ADP, you have yourself a very nice value.

Derek Jeter being drafted so high last year was a result of overestimating the value of consistency. Jeter’s consistency makes for a low risk pick in the beginning of the draft, but you also sacrifice a significant amount of upside. Jeter’s skill set just simply doesn’t play in the top 25 and he has been downgraded accordingly this year.

Overall, we can learn a number of things from last year’s top 25. Perhaps most important is that drafting pitchers and high upside/high risk players in the first couple rounds is just simply a bad idea. Take this exercise one step further and analyze your leagues draft from last year. What trends can you find? What can you learn? The results can really help you make the draft a much more efficient experience.