The Day in Review

Opening Day, and let me point out, possibly the best day of the year after a full offseason of preparation. Even as a Cubs fan, the loss was at least exciting--Fukudome looked good and could be the real deal. But on to the news...

Injury Front

• Chad Cordero gets a cortisone shot, and while the Nationals aren't mentioning a DL stint, I think it could happen. Either way, you just hold tight, and grab Rauch.
• Victor Martinez injured his hamstring and now has absolutely no chance of out-stealing Russell Martin. More seriously, it looked like the Indians catcher might have to spend some time on the DL.
• Zambrano looks to be okay after a finger scare that Rotoworld described with the phrase, "would have been a disaster". This one is worth monitoring, but I'm optimistic that Big Z will get by with the forearm cramps--pitching in the North in April ain't friendly.
• Jeff Kent, who some suspected would find the DL, hit a homer today. Pujols did the same, so both should earn a little relaxation from their fantasy owners.

Performance Notes

• I'm not going to go crazy about guys who have had one good game, but Nick Johnson has had two. The guy was an OPS stud a few years back and leagues that count that stat could do worse in their utility spot. The way that offense looked the past two games, Johnson might be worth grabbing even now.
• Lastings Milledge homered today, and I'm a believer. Kosuke Fukudome also looked great. I newly consider both third-outfielders in mixed leagues.

Hopefully your team did well, but if not, we have 161 more games for you. Check ESPN for an article about not stressing with early play, and good luck. That's what you need to know about the day.

The Walk Years, Part Two

Early in March, I posted about my favorite topic: players in walk years. Year in and year out, players with the big money contracts on the table seem to outperform every projection. Although this is not a foolproof formula (Andruw Jones, despite being a walk years, was awful last year), it is in my opinion a very consistent measure of guys to target. Here are five more players in walk years that I think could be big surprises in 2008:

Bobby Abreu, RF, New York Yankees: Abreu has been one of baseball's most consistent outfielders over the past ten years, producing in all five categories and playing outstanding defense. This spring, he's been hitting the ball at a .462 clip - you think he's ready for his last payday at age 34? I certainly do. 100/100 are minimums, 30 steals is probable, and he ought to keep the batting average close to .300 (Abreu is even more valuable if your league happens to consider OPS). 20 HR may be a stretch these days, but even 15 with his other production makes him a valuable outfielder. He's old but not yet over the hill, and I expect big things from Abreu in 2008.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Rangers: How does .300/29/90/89 sound from your third base spot? How about .276/32/110/107? How about if you can get these numbers in Round 15? Round 20? Those are Blalock's lines from 2003 and 2004, before he was bit by the injury bug. He's a 27 year old free-agent to be with a ton of upside in 2008. Things to like: He's batting cleanup behind Michael Young and Josh Hamilton. He's been so hot this spring, hitting .377 and mashing the ball. His home park is the Ballpark at Arlington, a notorious hitter's paradise. He can be had in drafts for dirt cheap right now. I know injury risks aren't always the best options, but I like Blalock to enter the prime of his career looking to get paid. CBS says .300/30/100/100 is a possibility - I think that's a stretch but maybe not a huge one. If you're busy grabbing middle infielders or outfielders early on, take a flier on Blalock late and you could be handsomely rewarded. 

Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He may not be having the monster spring of the previous two players, but Dunn is a free-agent-to-be with plenty of upside. He has mashed 40 HR exactly in three straight years, which has ensured him 100/100 numbers. It's difficult to find clocks that consistent. He also managed a bonus 9 SBs last season. In his walk year (age 28), I think it's reasonable to expect him to produce at his 2004 pace: .266/46/102/105/6. The Reds have been working with him on cutting down on the strikeouts, and I think the batting average will be no problem for his value this year. I like to target him as a solid source of power with a high ceiling heading into 2008. 

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Here is one of Zach's favorite players, and I can't disagree. In 16 spring games, he has hit .327 with 11 runs, 5 triples, 11 RBI and two steals. He's no longer plagued of the ankle injury that robbed him of his speed in 2007, and he's free to hit at the top of a fairly potent Dodger batting order. I expect him to be circling the basepaths consistently, to the tune of an easy 40 steals. Hopefully he can add the pop that will make him a very valuable fantasy commodity this year.

Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Los Angeles Angels: Big Vlad has been one of my favorite baseball players to watch for many years, because he's never afraid to hit any pitch coming his way. He's been consistently good at hitting both good pitches and bad, too, even without any protection in the lineup. My expectations for him this season: with the plethora of outfielders, he should get enough random days off so that his nagging elbow and knee problems will not flare up. He's a four category producer now - he won't give you any steals anymore, but .330/30/125/100 could very well happen. He's been good for a long time and there's no question in my mind he'll be keeping it up throughout 2008.

To update my previous post: Joe Nathan was signed to a four-year deal. This takes him out of the walk year formula but to me increases his value, because it ensures that he will close for the entire season (barring injury). It also increases K-Rod's value slightly, because the market has been set for him. He is younger than Nathan and will look to get more dollars than him this off-season. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. I'll have five more names I'd like to discuss later in the week, so be sure to check back. It's probably too late to draft these guys, but look to trade for them in your early season maneuvering.

The Day in Review

I just finished watching the Braves Nationals game and let me say... wow. As a Ryan Zimmerman owner and overrater, I'm glad that my faith for now rests firm. It was just a great game to open the season here in the U.S. (As a side note, the crowd didn't seem to pleased when good ole' G.W. threw out that opening pitch. Imagine all the Sandlot-derived humor if Hillary had the honor)

Injury Watch

• Chad Cordero wasn't in there to witness poor defensive play by Paul Lo Duca, as he was out with arm stiffness. If you have a roster spot, grab Jon Rauch. I expect Cordero to be back quickly but Rauch is a decent pitcher with a speck of upside now.
• Good news on Smoltz, Beckett, and Kazmir today. Expect Smoltz back in the first week, Beckett optimistically by the second, and Kazmir optimistically in the late third. Either way, they have all progressed accordingly.
• Andy Pettitte and Randy Johnson both found themselves officially on the DL today. If you have the spot for them, throw them on it (I didn't so dropped Pettitte). If you have an open DL spot, what are you thinking? Pick someone up, with Johnson being a prime candidate.

Demotions/Promotions

• Juan Pierre is riding the pine, so I can like the Dodgers again. Andre Ethier is worth grabbing in deeper leagues or 5 OF leagues, as he's been hot this Spring. Also, this sets Furcal up to lead off, just another reason to love the SS.
• Kershaw is back to the minors, but he's only 20 so this is reasonable. His LA counterpart Nick Adenhart also went back to the minors, though this decision was easier due to his performance. Dustin Moseley isn't really worth grabbing, but Joe Saunders doesn't get any hype despite a great spring.
  

For those of you who watched the game, you'll agree that Tim Hudson looked dominant. I don't care who you're playing, that sort of sinking action is going to be effective. I had Hudson pegged as unlikely to repeat last season but he does have a good degree of upside. That's what you need to know about the day.

ESPN Keeper League

Hey everybody! As promised, here is my team from a recent draft in a league with some friends through ESPN. I like my team a lot - I felt I had the best two keepers in A-Rod and Jimmy Rollins, and my team turned out great overall. 

Lineup: 

• C Russell Martin (4)
• 1B Mark Teixeira (3, technically my first selection)
• 2B Brian Roberts (5)
• SS Jimmy Rollins (Keeper)
• 3B Alex Rodriguez (Keeper)
• OF Adam Dunn (6)
• OF Jason Bay (8)
• OF Josh Hamilton (10)
• UTIL Andruw Jones (11)

Pitching:

• Brett Myers (9)
• Dustin McGowan (12)
• Jered Weaver (14)
• Chad Billingsley (15)
• Greg Maddux (17)
• Jon Garland (19)
• Jon Lester (21)
• Chris Carpenter (20) (DL)

Closers:

• Billy Wagner (7)
• Manny Corpas (11)
• Kerry Wood (16)
• Brandon Lyon (18)

Okay, the pitching staff is really bad. Nonetheless, I am highly optimistic about this team. Here's why:

I have a disgusting infield. I'll have no problem with power or stolen bases. I don't think Dunn and Jones will combine to hit .250, and I think my whole infield could hit above .300, so my team average won't be that bad. I have four closers, and should have no trouble accumulating saves.

My major flaws: 

Closers can and do lose their jobs, so those could soon be worthless commodities. I'm actually trying to grab one of Nathan, Papelbon, Putz, or Webb from the player who has all four - a stud would make this pitching staff look much better. 

That team average could be weak. We'll see how Jones adjusts to Dodger Stadium, and we'll see if Bay or Hamilton can truly perform.

Pitching was going early in this draft, and I drafted against it. Look at every guy - they are going a round or more below their projected position. For better or worse, I felt like every pick I made was a steal (until I realized I had no pitching). Still, Chris Carpenter in the second-to-last round, could come around mid-season and be a big help. You never know. Thoughts on my team? Do I need to move Jones or Dunn to salvage my team average?

Bonus points if you can tell me something fun about Adam Hyzdu, the player for whom my team is named. 

Sunk Costs are Sunk

One of the posters brought up Manny Ramirez last year, and it definitely deserves a post of its own. The phrase "sunk costs are sunk" is a catch-phrase of economics. Borrowing an example from freakonomics (albeit paraphrased and slightly amended)...

Say, you've purchased movie tickets ahead of time to a theater downtown. However, the night of the movie you are worn out and there's a Seinfeld marathon all night. Now, many would feel obligated to attend the theater, having already spent the recusant dough. The economist would argue that the greatest satisfaction at that point is independent of the cost of the movie tickets, since such costs are "sunk."

Now, let's say you drafted Manny Ramirez in the second round of last year's draft, and he's failing (flailing?) miserably at the plate. Do you bench him, drop him, trade him, or just start him every night with blind faith in the Red Sox. Well, unless you are from Boston, we can count that last one out. Regardless of how much you invested in the player, such investment is a sunk cost, and like an MLB team not named the Dodgers you should play the outfielder who will help you the most.

Now, what about the other options? I would recommend not dropping him by the following logic. While the cost of you using a roster spot is tangible, it is lower than the risk of someone else picking him up and the player returning to form. Last year alone I picked up Alex Rios and Paul Konerko, and should have won the league.

Finally, to the question of trading him. If it is early in the year, and he still has value for being drafted in the so-and-so round, do it. If you are getting what you put into him, and there's a risk he will be a bust, trades like that should help you over the course of a season. If it is late, and the player doesn't look like they will perform, trade them for above-marginal value. Otherwise, you might as well have dropped them, an action which will hurt you.

Ask the Experts: Texas Rangers

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to post five questions to Texas Rangers beat writer Evan Grant. Evan writes for the Dallas Morning News. There are a lot of questions concerning this ball club for the 2008 season, so lets see what he has to say.

• Josh Hamilton had a tremendous return to baseball last season (.292, 19 HR). Do you see his position in the batting order affecting the way he follows up on that performance?
  
• Evan Grant: I think he will start out in the No. 2 spot, but by the end of the year, he could be this team’s cleanup guy. I don’t think where he hits will have any impact on his batting average or power numbers, but obviously he may not have as many run-producing opps in the No. 2 spot. If he plays a full season, he’s going to hit about 30 homers and his batting average will probably sit right about where it was last year, maybe even a bit higher.
  

How do you see Jarrod Saltalamacchia performing in his first full season in the major leagues?
Evan Gant: Not sure this will be his first full season in the big leagues. Rangers aren’t opposed to sending him to Oklahoma if he does not win starting catcher’s job. If club thinks he is better served by playing every day at Triple-A, they will start the year with Gerald Laird behind the plate and possibly take Adam Melhuse as backup. Hard to make a prediction on Salty given all the uncertainty. Last year, he was called up, changed positions regularly and then changed leagues. I think if he goes to OKC, works on defense a bit, and comes up around the trading deadline, he’ll be much more suited to being the long-term catcher.

• Who do you see opening the season as the team’s closer? Do you see Kazuo Fukumori eventually taking over the role?
  
• Evan Grant: CJ Wilson is the closer to start the year if he’s healthy. Currently he’s dealing with biceps tendinitis. If Wilson flops or is on the DL, I think Eddie Guardado would get first shot at the closer’s role. The Rangers want Fukumori to be one of their setup men. But he’s been pretty good so far in spring and he impressed the Rangers by working out of a jam the defense made for him last week. Guardado is no lock to be closer, either. You know, the club never thought Aki Otsuka would end up being their closer, but he was and he did a good job. Fukumori, like Otsuka, doesn’t really have closer stuff, but his lack of fear and willingness to throw strikes may make for the lack of raw stuff. 

Even with the questions surrounding Hank Blalock’s health, it would appear that the team should get solid offense from their infielders. Who do you see producing the best season of the four (Broussard, Kinlser, Young and Blalock)?
Evan Grant: Going to be hard to beat Michael Young since you can almost certainly put him down for a .300 season and 200 hits and last year was a DOWN year for him. But Kinsler is a rising star and I could see him going 30-30 this year with an average in the .280 range and a .350 OBP. I think this is the year he establishes himself as a star. Does it mean he has a bigger year than Young overall? Not sure. But he’s going to be productive.

• Is Milton Bradley expected to be ready for Opening Day and how do you see him producing this season?
  
• Evan Grant: Bradley expects to be able to DH by opening day, but I don’t think the Rangers will put him in the outfield until sometime into April. For me, the question about Bradley is not how he produces, but if he can stay on the field. Only one season with more than 101 games. Bradley has really nice numbers in the cleanup spot and with Kinsler, Hamilton and Young ahead of him, he should get plenty of run-producing chances. The year he played 140 games, he hit .267 with 19 homers and 67 RBIs. I’m comfortable saying that he’ll have closer to 25 homers and 100 RBIs if he plays 140 games for the Rangers this season.
  

The Day in Review

All has been Quiet on the Fantasy Front... I've been searching for a story but can't find too much. Escobar is gone, probably for the season. Chris Capuano has declined surgery, but this doesn't really matter because he won't be owned except in the deepest of leagues. Doug Davis has thyroid cancer - terrible news, but the prognosis is good because he is healthy and they caught it early. Hopefully he will have a speedy recovery.

The Nationals open their new stadium on Sunday. I'm so ready for actual baseball to start. Look for me to post my keeper team and a little discussion tomorrow.

That's all you need to know for today.

Ask the Experts: Anaheim Angel

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to Bill Plunkett, a beat writer who follows the Los Angeles Angels for the Orange County Register. He provided us with some in depth answers about a team that I feel has a lot more question marks than most analysts care to admit.

• Do you think that Torii Hunter will provide the protection the Angel have been seeking for Vladimir Guerrero or do you think the team is still in need of another big hitter?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I don’t think Vlad needs protection. He does fine on his own. However, I still think there is a big gap between the offensive firepower they have in Detroit and Boston and New York and Cleveland, too, I guess. I don’t think Torii Hunter alone bridges that gap. Torii Hunter plus a healthy Garret Anderson (a highly unlikely pipe dream at this point in his career) plus a full season from Howie Kendrick plus continued development by Casey Kotchman? Maybe that gives the lineup enough depth to be a sufficient complement to elite-level pitching (if they get “elite-level” pitching). The Angels were in the top 5 in runs scored last season even with all their problems/deficiencies and I suspect they will be right there again during the 2008 season. It’s in the playoff where the Angels’ brand of offense hasn’t worked in the past few years and I don’t see those matchups working out any more in their favor now, Hunter or no Hunter.
  

The rotation appears to be very deep, but injuries already seem like they could be a problem. Do you have any update on the condition of Kelvim Escobar and how do you see the Angels filling out the back-end of its rotation in the interim?
Bill Plunkett: Escobar has been the invisible man this spring. Almost all of the rehab and physical therapy he is doing for the sore shoulder is done off site, away from Tempe Diablo Stadium. We’ve only seen him in the clubhouse a couple times all spring. That means the only updates we get are through Angels manager Mike Scioscia — and those second-hand interpretations of how Escobar is doing are not terribly informative. Scioscia originally told us Escobar would start a throwing program in the “second or third week of March.” Well, here we are — and still no sign of Escobar. By my math, it would take a minimum of six weeks to go from the start of a throwing program to rejoining the Angels’ rotation — four weeks to go from flat ground throwing to long toss to throwing off a mound to throwing to hitters, then another two weeks to make a minimum of three rehab game appearances. That’s an optimistic estimate which, as of today, puts Escobar’s return somewhere in early to mid-May. And I would have my concerns about a recurrence of this problem at some point later in the season. Remember — he had this problem last September and it persisted through the winter. That means the rotation for at least the first month of the season will be Lackey, Garland, Weaver, Santana, Saunders. I think Lackey’s spring elbow problem will be forgotten quickly. Garland will be a solid No. 2 and Weaver could be the linchpin — how he does could push the Angels in one direction or the other. He has looked terrific so far this spring. Can’t say the same for Santana.

• Who do you ultimately see filling the shortstop role, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood?
  
• Bill Plunkett: Aybar. And Izturis. Then Aybar again and Izturis some more. I don’t see either player emerging as the every-day guy. I think it will be a time-share arrangement much like the Mathis-Napoli combo at catcher. Whether it’s Aybar or Izturis from day-to-day will depend on how each is going and what the team’s needs (defensively and offensively) are on a given day against a given opponent. As for Wood, his time is coming — but it’s not here yet. He still needs a lot of work on pitch recognition — like so many young power hitters, he chases way too many breaking pitches out of the strike zone.
  

How do you see the Angels rotating Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera between the left field and designated hitter spots?
Bill Plunkett: I think that will take care of itself for much of the season based on which players are healthy. I don’t see much playing time for Willits other than as a late-inning defensive replacement on the corners. But I do see Rivera forcing his way into a bigger role, much as he did in 2006. If I had to put numbers to it at this point in the spring I would guess the DH starts would break down this way — 60-65 for Anderson, 40-45 for Guerrero, 10-15 for Matthews, 30-40 for Rivera, a handful for Hunter. But I could see Rivera’s share going up.

• The Angels have some young players filling some key line-up spots in Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli. Who do you see having the better offensive season in ‘08?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I think Kendrick is going to have a breakout season. People forget he has already hit .306 in his first 160 big-league games including .322 with a .450 slugging percentage between the two hand injuries last season. Those were just fluke injuries and not something you can look at as a sign of future trouble. This guy is a hitter and I could see him developing into an All-Star in a couple seasons. He and Kotchman hold the key to the Angels’ offense this season – if they continue to develop into the kind of hitters the Angels think they can be, that lineup suddenly becomes seven deep. I don’t think the Angels are going to get much in the way of offense from either catcher. But Scioscia doesn’t ask for that from his catchers.
  

ESPN Keeper League

Well, I know many of you enjoyed the "Expert Draft" series, but I'm not going to lie to you--this league here is mostly high school friends. Many of the players didn't attend the draft, while those that were there made a couple questionable picks between generally good drafts. Here's my team (I kept Alfonso Soriano and Hanley Ramirez from last year - forcing me to drop Carl Crawford so it was a close call).

• C - Geovany Soto (I have him in every league I'm in, and that worries me more than his Spring)
  
• 1B - Derrek Lee (2nd)
  
• 2B - B.J. Upton (1st)
  
• 3B - Alex Gordon / Hank Blalock
  
• SS - Hanley Ramirez
  
• OF - Alfonso Soriano
  
• OF - Alex Rios (5th pick, I'll explain soon)
  
• OF - Shane Victorino
  
• Util - Billy Butler

• SPs: Scott Kazmir (5th), Felix Hernandez (6th), Rich Hill (7th), Javier Javquez (8th), Pedro Martinez, Matt Garza
  
• RPs: Rafael Soriano, Joakim Soria, Jeremy Accardo, Joba Chamberlain, Brian Fuentes
  

Comments...

The league drafted pitchers much more quickly than any league I've been in before, and I think Rios was the product of not jumping on the bandwagon. My 5th-8th picks were all pitchers to try to establish a core, and I'm pretty happy with it. Of course, I had to ditch a big-name bullpen, though some of these guys are good bets when it comes to peripherals (more helpful in H2H leagues like this in my opinion).

I missed out on Atkins because the team with Wright took him with their 2nd pick. I thought he'd round the corner where the two owners had Wright and Cabrera, but I learned a lesson. I'd still advise betting on team managers to focus on roster needs, though if you won't recover from the loss you should probably grab the guy you want.

Pete will soon post his team so you guys can have a good time comparing. We have probably the best two teams in the league, in small part to having either A-Rod or H-Ram. So what are your thoughts?

Closers: Part II

So, hopefully I've convinced you that a team's record isn't a crucial factor when considering a closer. While closer is the only position that will get you saves, the pitchers will contribute to every category, so peripherals must be considered. Also, a good closer will contribute to wins and strikeouts. For instance, Francisco Rodriguez had 46 more strikeouts than Trevor Hoffman, while J.J. Putz had 6 wins to Todd Jones's 1. A difference of this magnitude among starting pitchers regarding either category would be considered substantial, but fantasy analysts tend to ignore them when they look at closers.

What factors should you consider? Well, peripherals are very important, along with durability and bullpen competition. Since it doesn't hurt to consider, winningness of the team can at least separate two close competitors. Lets look at these categories, using Zips and PECOTA for statistics, to find some possible steals.

Peripherals: B.J. Ryan (ERA 2.08, WHIP 1.03), Joakim Soria (ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.07), Huston Street (ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.03), George Sherrill (ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.18)

• Soria and Street are bargains, while the other two will come up later. The big four all have a projected ERA under 3.00 - which guys don't? Valverde and Cordero to name a couple. Check fangraphs for the data.

Durability: Every year, roughly fifteen closers lose their job due to injury or breakdowns. Some guys to be aware of this year as injury risks are Percival (age), Borowski (age), Rivera (age), Hoffman (age), Saito (age), Papelbon (showed fatigue last year, Red Sox showed extreme caution), Street (injured last season, seems healthy), Ryan (coming off Tommy John a bit early), Soriano (consistent injury troubles), Lidge (already hurt), Wood (consistent injury history). 

• Of these guys, I trust Rivera, Hoffman, Street, and to a lesser extent Papelbon to beat the odds and play a full season. Everyone else will likely see at least 15 days on the DL.
  

Bullpen Condition: Closers lose the gig every year, sometimes even when they pitch a good season (look at Fuentes' overall season last year). 

• Borowski should lose his job to Rafael Betancourt. Saito will be threatened by Broxton, but I think should hold on. It could be interesting if Rivera struggles and Joba Chamberlain pitches like last year. I could see Gagne exploding, with either Salomon Torres or Derrick Turnbow filling in. C.J. Wilson might be pressed by recent import Kazuo Fukumori, who has pitched well this spring and could open camp as the closer (also, Guardado was at one point the speculated closer, and he does have the most experience of that pen). Finally, Kerry Wood will fight for the job all season from the likes of Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol--The Cubs tolerated Dempster last year so I think Wood's leash might be pretty long once he earns the spot.
• Closers get traded around the deadline every year. Beware of losing your saves from Joe Nathan, Chad Cordero, Kevin Gregg, and George Sherrill. Nathan is the least likely to move-though the Twins might feel forced to-and I can't see him not closing or on a competitive team that will need a closer barring injury. Also, beware that Soria may be tried as a starting pitcher.

Winningness: Referring to the first post, which teams will be new to the winners bracket (above .500 for our purposes) and the losers bracket? Nothing really new here,

• New Winning Teams - Tampa Bay
• New Losing Teams - Seattle 

So, who would I say is underrated heading into this season? Well, there isn't much to complain about among Francisco Rodriguez, who is in a walk year, and J.J. Putz (whose newly projected losers will still win 73 games). If you waited till the twelfth round in a ten team league (10th in a twelve team league) you'd still see respectable names-as in unblemished by the aforementioned considerations-such as Street, Corpas, Capps, and Isringhausen. All of these guys could serve as a number two closer or paired and accompanied by a riskier late round pick like Betancourt, Wood, or Ryan.

The most important factor thing to recognize is that having a solid bullpen will provide saves, but also contribute to other categories. Last year Francisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen, and Jose Valverde-already their team's closer-went after the 120th pick. Other guys like Matt Capps, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Accardo provided value from the waiver wire. If I had to pick this years "surprise three" it would be Street, Soria, and Ryan.

The Day in Review

Hey everyone. I'm a very lazy college freshmen, so I'm happy to report that nothing really happened today. With the extra time I'd like to report a few things...

For those of you looking for new blogs, I have a "database" to recommend. The RotoFeed describes itself as " a totally free RSS service that aggregates all the best fantasy baseball blogs, columns and podcasts into a single, real-time feed. It basically wraps up thevarious RSS feeds from each of those into one feed." They picked up on our blog from the beginning and I'm happy to recommend their services.

Prospect Watch

• If you haven't heard, Joe Crede will start third base for the White Sox, which means Josh Fields is headed back to the minors. I think Fields will come up sometime this season and put up numbers like Swisher did last year. Swisher on the other hand will put up 35 HRs, so I'd recommend him.

Later tonight I'll be posting the results of my keeper league draft (a little late I know, but its not my fault). My keepers, as I mentioned before, are Hanley Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. If you have a chance before eleven, rank the following: Sizemore, Beltran, Upton, and Teixeira. Its an ESPN league, so same as Yahoo! as far as the roster goes.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Ask the Experts: New York Yankees

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to post five questions to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. I figured with the offenses that the Yankees and Mets are looking to "commit" this year, these constitute good reads.

• What role do you see Joba Chamberlain filling coming out of Spring Training? Do you see any innings limit being put on him?
  
• Mark Feinsand: Brian Cashman won’t say what it is, but the innings limit on Joba will probably be around 140 or so. I think he’s going to start the year in the bullpen, and if they decide/need/want to move him into the rotation a month or two into the season, they’ll send him to the minors to stretch him out. Personally, I think he is best fit to be the setup guy this year, throwing about 120-130 innings out of the pen. If they use him like they used Mariano Rivera in 1996, they would have a tremendous bullpen. 

What are the chances that Ian Kennedy is able to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training? If he doesn’t, do you see him making an impact this season?
Mark Feinsand: I think Kennedy will win a spot in the rotation unless he completely falls apart. His inning limit will be approximately 190-195 from what I can figure, which isn’t really much of a limit at all. Remember, Kennedy was a polished college pitcher, so even though he was drafted less than two years ago, he’s experienced to some degree.

• How do you see the Yankees handling the 1B situation? If it’s not Jason Giambi full-time, what role do you see him playing on this team in ‘08?
  
• Mark Feinsand: Joe Girardi has made several comments that indicate he would like to see Giambi play first base on a regular basis, so he’ll be given that opportunity. Of course, that’s assuming Giambi can stay healthy enough to do so. Shelley Duncan will see some time at first, and I look at Morgan Ensberg as a darkhorse to win the job this spring. I could easily see Ensberg making this team. 
  

With Robinson Cano quickly becoming one of the top young hitters in the game, where in the order do you see him batting this season? Is there any chance they ultimately move him to the #2 or 3 spot by season’s end?
Mark Feinsand: I see Cano batting seventh or eighth this year, since there are still too many veterans ahead of him. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod, Posada, Matsui, Giambi, Cano, Cabrera. That seems about right to me. As good as Cano is, it’s not like hitting seventh or eighth in this lineup is a problem, since guys will still be on base ahead of him. Now, in 2009, with Giambi and Abreu likely gone, I could see Cano sliding up to the #3 spot that season.

The Day in Review

Its been another active day around the league, with some bad news concerning a few things. First, I must digress that the Cubs don't look to get Brian Roberts any time soon, so I've wasted an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out a new lineup. But onto real news...

Injury Watch

• Kelvim Escobar is likely to miss at least half the season, but I'm betting on the whole thing. I just flat out dropped him in my Sports Writers league and don't think he's worth going near. If there's a free agent out there you had your eyes on, just cut your losses. You'll need that DL spot for someone who might actually pitch later in the year.
• Carlos Gomez appears healthy despite the scare. I'm concerned that he might steal less after the hamstring pull, and thats really all he's good for.
• Hanley Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano (my two keepers by the way) are going to try to avoid injury this year by running less. If this means they are moving down the order and will see more RBI chances, its okay. Still, it puts a dent in both of their fantasy value if the managers' requests come to fruition.

Prospect Watch

• Salty is back in the minors. For those of you drafting him ahead of guys like Johjima or Soto, you were warned by most analysts. In shallow leagues, Kurt Suzuki or Carlos Ruiz might be available. Otherwise you'll probably have to settle for Laird.
• Homer Bailey was optioned to the minors, which I find a bit surprising. Johnny Cueto could be a viable option based on how the Reds are treating him.

A few notable performances of the day: Rich Harden had a great first outing. For some reason I think he will stay healthy long enough to be worth the draft pick, and I don't even own the guy. Also, based on Jered Weaver's spring and the performance he showed when he first hit the majors, you might want to write last season off as a sophomore slump. Josh Hamilton continues to seem undervalued in my opinion, but I tend to think injury risk is overrated (all players carry risk, and with the exception of Ben Sheets is tough to predict). Piniella mused today that Fukudome might bat leadoff against lefties, which could mean an increase in steals. I think the guy could go 15-15, but with all the balanced outfielders out there you could do better.

Thats what you need to know about the day.

Grand Theft Roto

Often, ESPN runs a feature called Grand Theft Roto, where the writer picks out players that are overperforming or underperforming and says to either trade them for a farm or trade the farm. This is about as parallel to the stock market as we could get, but I figured it needed a little bit more objectivity...

This is the last time in awhile that I will bring up "tiers" from a purely strategic sense, but it warrants discussion. When is a player worth "selling high". Well, I would say that if a player is playing a tier above where you expect him to perform, you can gain marginal value. If he is performing better but still within his tier, you might want to simply hold. You likely won't gain a substantial bounty.

Secondly, when is a player worth "buying low". This one is more valuable, for if a player is performing a tier less than you project, get him. Most players return to their tier, and it's especially likely that a player will return to his norm if it's just a slump (watch injuries though).

What does it mean to "project a player isn't in the right tier"? Really, this is a gut instinct. If you ranked someone in a certain place during the offseason and they aren't living up to it, go after them unless you believe the underperforming version is the real player. Likewise, if a player is performing above what you thought, but you think that he will maintain that, don't trade him. Even if you turn out wrong, you will have done what you thought was right, and hence should be more satisfied. 

Ask the Experts: New York Mets

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to the New York Daily News’ Adam Rubin. The following interview is from their blog, and I'd encourage you to check it out for individual threads about each of the day's events.

• After struggling down the stretch last season, how do you see Jose Reyes bouncing back?
  
• Adam Rubin: I don’t believe there will be any carryover from Reyes’ miserable September to 2008. If you believe the Mets’ assertion, it was simply an ill-timed slump. In case he ran out of gas, the Mets will try to give Reyes a few extra days off this season. And if there was any fraying of the relationship between Willie Randolph and Reyes after he was pulled in Houston before the All-Star break, I’m sure a winter apart and Randolph’s visit to Reyes’ parents’ home in the Dominican Republic a couple of weeks before spring training have smoothed over everything. 
  

The top of the Mets rotation appears to be able to stack up with anyone in baseball. How do you see the combination of Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez performing?
Adam Rubin: Any mild downturn Santana experienced in late ‘07 should be more than offset by moving to the National League. The key with Pedro, of course, is health, but he claims to feel as good as at any time since 1998 when he was in the midst of winning Cy Youngs. If John Maine and Oliver Perez can just duplicate their ‘07 seasons, it’s hard to imagine the Mets not in the postseason.

• How do you see Carlos Delgado rebounding from what was arguably his worst season as an every day player?
  

• Adam Rubin: Delgado is a big question mark. It’s very possible his years on artificial turf in Toronto, coupled with catching in the minors, are catching up to him. He says the broken hand is fine, and that he started swinging a bat in early January. Delgado steadfastly maintains he hasn’t lost any bat speed. Willie Randolph hasn’t sounded quite as sure, and has suggested Delgado was stubborn swinging at up-and-in pitches he can no longer turn on that he should be taking for balls. Randolph also wants to see Delgado use left field more.

What expectations do you have for the back-end of the Mets rotation, most notably Oliver Perez and John Maine?
Adam Rubin: Scott Boras compared Perez to Erik Bedard in the arbitration hearing. We’ll see if that turns out to be a valid comparison in Perez’s walk year. Perez obviously has been inconsistent, so we’ll find out if he’s turned a corner. So many things went well early for Maine last year. It’s entirely conceivable he ends up in the low teens in wins this season.

• After having a solid season last year, including 59 extra base hits, how do you see Ryan Church fairing as he Mets everyday right fielder?
  
• Adam Rubin: Church will hit no higher than seventh, so his performance is not make-or-break for the Mets. He’s adamant a lot of the doubles he hit at RFK will be home runs at Shea. He’s also adamant he can hit lefty pitching. The jury is still out. If he can’t, Damion Easley and Endy Chavez should pick up at-bats in right field.
  

The Day in Review

Hey everyone. The baseball season has started, and if you own Huston Street (as I do), you weren't all that thrilled. Daisuke recovered nicely, but for some reason I'm suspicious of him, and the Red Sox--as if anyone doubted them--beat the Athletics.

Injury Watch

• Kelvim Escobar experienced a setback, and while the Angels haven't yet set a timetable for awhile, it's looking like it might be a while. He has no value right now, so if you drafted him, you might as well hold, but treat your rotation as if its short one of its better pitchers.
• John Smoltz and Josh Beckett, although likely to miss a week or so, are progressing nicely and should be able to recover quickly from their injuries.
• Scott Kazmir was placed on the DL. Tell this to Yahoo!, who is yet to make him DL-eligible.
• Nate McLouth had missed some time with strep throat but returned to the lineup today, answering any questions of his readiness for the Pirate's opener. He's still a nice sleeper even in shallow leagues.

Prospect Watch

• In a surprising move, the Brewers cut Claudio Vargas, establishing a rotation of Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra. Parra is worth grabbing if you have a roster spot available, especially as a fill in for Kazmir or other starter missing time in April. The last two of the rotation may lose their job once Gallardo comes back, but Manny Parra is one of three pitchers I'm watching this season.
• The other two of those pitchers, Nick Adenhart and Clayton Kershaw, had much different games today. Adenhart, who was competing with Moseley for a fifth rotation spot, gave up nine earned in 4.0 innings, raising his Spring ERA to 5.16. Kershaw, who doesn't (yet) have a rotation spot, pitched three innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, throwing in a whopping six strikeout.

Thats what you need to know about the day.

San Francisco Giants

It's been a long journey across the majors, and it's a relief that it's about to end in San Francisco. It's a relief that it's ending here, because this analysis ought to be short and sweet. Every other team in the West can talk reasonably of winning the division; this one can talk only of finishing in last by a lot. Life without Barry Bonds is as cold and empty as life with him.

Lineup

• LF Dave Roberts
• 3B Kevin Frandsen
• RF Randy Winn
• C Bengie Molina

• CF Aaron Rowand
  
• 2B Ray Durham
• 1B Dan Ortmeier
• SS Omar Vizquel

Rotation

• Matt Cain
• Barry Zito
• Tim Lincecum
• Noah Lowry
• Kevin Correia

Closer: Brian Wilson

Thoughts...

Yes, this is a pretty bad team, but the good news is: I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance! On a more serious note, there are a few reasons for optimism here.

1. Cain is a very good starting pitcher, who is mostly wins away from being truly outstanding. Maybe in a year or two, he'll be able to supplement his 170ish strikeouts and ERA around 3.50 with a few victories. 

2. Lincecum is going to be great. Someday. It might even be someday soon, but like Cain, he will be plagued by a lack of run support and wins.

3. A catcher is hitting cleanup. It's Bengie Molina, who's no Victor Martinez, but he does have back-to-back 19 HR years and will get RBI chances hitting fourth. 

4. You can get Randy Winn for nothing, literally, and he's produced double digit homeruns and steals for the past six seasons. He's not outstanding, but in deeper leagues he's a hidden gem. Or something like that.

5. Barry Bonds is gone. That's a good thing, right?

That about covers the Giants. Personally, I'm avoiding this team like everyone else. They're going to get run all over by the elite teams of their division. Maybe in a couple years, if Rajai Davis and the youngsters get the chance to grow, this team will win some games again, but for 2008, I'm not too hopeful.

Why Quantize?

So why is using quantum baseball mechanics worthwhile? Well, your opinion of your team is a product of your satisfaction with the team; if you gain equal satisfaction from two players, then they are on the same tier, and any trading should only focus on gaining a player on a better tier. Giving away trade-fodder (MPs) to gain a player on the same tier will reduce your team to a position where it has either...

peaked: You cannot make any trade without giving up more than you are getting. Hence, your team cannot improve. The free agent market cannot provide improvement or trade fodder in this condition.

-or-

plundered: You have traded so many "2 for 1"s that your team consists largely of free agent gambles. The issue here isn't so much that you have a weak team, but that the league associates your pitching with the free agency, and hence there is little appeal to those players regardless of performance.

Hence, trade strategy should revolve around which of these conditions is more likely. A Tier 1 for Tier 2 + league minimum pitcher is fair, but it only worthwhile if you think someone will develop from free agency. In a competitive league--read "efficient market"--those free agent players should vanish quickly.

The Day in Review

It's been a less-than-exciting Monday in fantasy baseball. Here's the recap of the day's bad news:

Injury Watch

• Josh Beckett is officially on the DL, retroactive to March 19. The good news: he should be eligible to pitch within the first two weeks of the season. The bad news: an early DL stint is definitely bad news for a guy I don't trust to stay healthy for an entire year. You can bet Boston will treat their October ace gingerly all season, to make sure he's healthy for the playoff run.
• John Smoltz is not officially on the DL yet, but the Braves don't actually need a fifth starter until April 6. It's very possible he won't pitch until then - hopefully age isn't catching up with the old horse. Tread softly.
• Brad Lidge will also be starting the season on the DL. He's eligible to be back April 5 - not soon enough to lose his job to Tom Gordon. Philadelphia will probably be careful as long as Flash proves to be a capable fill-in. Caveat Emptor.

Demotions

• Despite an outstanding spring, Evan Longoria is being sent to Triple-A by the Tampa Bay Rays. The move is probably just Tampa trying to secure his rights for an extra year, meaning he'll be back in May. However, he's no longer worth drafting as a sleeper at the end of your drafts.
• Minnesota is starting Francisco Liriano off the minors. He is still recovering from surgery in 2006, and the Twins have to value him too much to rush him back. He'll make a few starts there until he is in better form, then return to the rotation.
• Cameron Maybin, one of the prizes of the Miguel Cabrera trade, was sent to Double-A by the Florida Marlins. This was not totally unexpected, but keep his name on the horizon in keeper and dynasty leagues if he reappears later this year.

Position Battles

• The Cubs rotation is set, with Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis edging Jon Lieber for the open spots. Kerry Wood, as expected, will close.
• Carlos Gomez will be playing center field for Minnesota. He's fast, and if he gets regular at-bats he could be a steals contributor if you need some this year.

Joey Votto hasn't been demoted yet, but Scott Hatteberg is hitting well and Reds manager Dusty Baker loves his veterans. Still no word on where Barry Bonds will end up this year. That's what you need to know for the day.

Quantum (Baseball) Mechanics

The following is a reprinted article from before Rotonomics worked with MLB Front Office. We here at the blog consider it beneficial reading to our new readers.

Ah, theoretical physics. I can't help but consider whether or not I'd have been up to a career in this field had I never become obsessed with fantasy baseball. But as that is a path long ago abandoned, I must instead integrate one particular idea into the dirt baseline of the fantasy world. Quantum mechanics involves the premise that all energy is divisible into quanta, the smallest form it can maintain. In Quantum Baseball Mechanics, this "smallest form" of value is what I call "minimum pitcher above free agency" (marginal pitcher or MP). It relies on the following condition: in every fantasy baseball league ever, every team is trying to improve their pitching core. A pitcher that is slightly better than free agency is likely sought by most every team, but it is the lowest valuable commodity in the realm of trades.

Now, marginal pitchers can be used to gage player values and team values. Often I see the phrase "tiers" applied to drafting strategies, but how do we determine which players belong in each tier. Let's define a "tier" as followed: If Player A is better than Player B so that the trade "Player A = Player B + 1 minimum pitcher above free agency", then Player A is one tier higher than Player B.

Lastly, marginal pitchers must be considered when evaluating your team. Each team's value can be determined by total "MPs", where the players are equal to the number of tiers they are over the best free agent player at that position. Hence, Utley is one tier above Phillips/Upton/Roberts, who is one tier above Cano, who is one tier above Kinsler/Kendrick/Weeks/etc., who are one tier better than free agency. Utley is worth "4 MPs" since each trade from the free agency would require a total of 4 league-minimum pitchers.

So, here's the question. What stats represent a "minimum pitcher above free agency"? I would say an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP around 1.35, and a K/9 around 6. Thoughts?

San Diego Padres

Looking at the San Diego lineup always makes me laugh before I begin to wonder how this team ever managed to win 89 and 88 games the past two years. Looking at their pitching, however, always drops my jaw - the rotation and bullpen have been stunningly good. The team made no major changes this off-season, so look for more of the same out of San Diego.

Lineup

• RF Brian Giles
• 2B Tadahito Iguchi
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 1B Adrian Gonzalez
• SS Khalil Greene
• C Josh Bard
• CF Jim Edmonds
• LF Scott Hairston

Rotation

• Jake Peavy
• Chris Young
• Greg Maddux
• Randy Wolf
• Mark Prior

Closer: Trevor Hoffman

Thoughts...

Part of the reason for the atrocious San Diego offense has to be Petco Park, right? Over the past three seasons, it has finished dead last each year in runs scored. I feel like some of the causation lies with the lineup that calls it home, but perhaps not. Adrian Gonzalez, for example, hit 10 HR at home and 20 on the road in 2007. Either way, the ballpark is yet another reason to draft pitchers, not hitters, from this team.

Speaking of Gonzalez, he spent the off-season working with Tony Gwynn and is looking to improve on 30/100/101 from last season. If only he didn't play at Petco, he'd be climbing the ranks of first basemen quickly. Still, keep your eyes on him in the middle of the draft - even if you get a first baseman early, Gonzalez looks great in a utility spot.

Seriously, though, most of the lineup isn't worth owning. It's funny to see Giles in the leadoff spot after having witnessed his power heydey in Pittsburgh, but he's no longer a power hitter. He's not worth owning in most leagues. Iguchi won't hit for power like he did in Chicago, and there are probably better options at second base. Kouzmanoff was hitting .108 a month into last season - even though he turned it around, I don't like him that much as my corner infielder. Honestly, most of this lineup isn't worth owning unless you're in a 32 team league.

Peavy and Young, however, are definitely worth owning. Great things can be expected of both in 2008, and I can't praise either one enough. Maddux still gets guys out, somehow, and could be worth drafting if you're looking to grab a starter late. ESPN called Mark Prior "the ultimate fantasy sleeper" because of his injury history, and I can't disagree. He is very talented and on an incentive-laden deal, but he's already out until May. If you are willing to take the risk, you could potentially reap huge rewards.

Finally, I'll close with the closer. Trevor Hoffman has been so good for so long that he won't lose the job unless he retires or suddenly stops throwing strikes. He can't be called an elite closer because he doesn't strike guys out, but he can be counted on for saves and makes a reliable number two. Heath Bell would be next-in-line, should anything happen because of age or ineffectiveness.

This Padres team is surprising. It's hard to determine whether Petco deflates the statistics of the lineup and inflates those of the rotation, or whether the outstanding rotation and terrible lineup create the illusion of a pitcher's park. Either way, from San Diego, draft the pitchers early and often, but take hitters at your own risk.

The Day in Review

Ah, the final half week of Spring Training. The players are warming up even if the weather refuses to follow suit, and the Red Sox and Athletics will kick of the season in Japan midweek. But for now, lets just concentrate on the day.

Injury Watch

• Chris Capuano looks to have a torn UCL, which would spell Tommy John surgery. I hate to admit it, but the Brewers have done the smart thing by holding on to their starting pitching surplus. This does a little to bump Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra's stock (please don't own Jeff Suppan, just, please). If Sheets can manage to go down earlier than expected, the Brewers could have a great DL rotation with him, Capuano, and Gallardo.
  
• Curtis Granderson broke his finger and has already found the DL. If you can manage to get him for cheap, I'd see this as a buy low opportunity. If you own him, just wait it out--he'll only miss a week.
• This one is good news. Francisco Liriano pitched well finally, throwing four hitless innings and K'ing five. If there was any doubt he wouldn't open the season in the rotation, it should be quelled.

Position Battles

• After another scoreless innings, Kerry Wood should close for the Cubs.
• There is some speculation that Huston Street might get traded to the Tigers. I doubt it, but if you're paranoid about having another reason to doubt Todd Jones you could pick up Alan Embree.
• Longoria hasn't done much to help nor hurt his case for starting at third. I hope the Rays play him, but they gain a year before free agency if he stays in the minors until May.

In miscellaneous things I expect to regret, Pujols continued to kill the ball this spring. Also, Mike Hampton pitched a solid outing and his ERA stands at 1.98. This just in, Jeff Suppan was caught stealing today, so maybe he will--oh wait, my partner is informing me that not only do pitcher's offensive stats not count, but "Caught Stealing" is neither a good thing nor relevant to fantasy scoring. So unless something happens between now and midnight, that's what you need to know about the day. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost amidst the splashes of Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera and Erik Bedard changing teams was the exile of Joe Torre from New York. The guy may not have been able to bring home the hardware since 2000, but he's still an outstanding manager who did wonders in the never-ending spotlight in New York. The Dodgers are hoping he can bring some of that magic out to the West coast and help them compete in a suddenly tough division in 2008.

Lineup

• SS Rafael Furcal
• LF Juan Pierre
• RF Matt Kemp
• CF Andruw Jones
• 2B Jeff Kent
• 1B James Loney
• C  Russell Martin
• 3B Nomar Garciaparra (Andy LaRoche)

Rotation

• Brad Penny
• Derek Lowe
• Chad Billingsley
• Hiroki Kuroda
• Jason Schmidt

Closer: Takashi Saito

Thoughts...

Whether you love or hate Juan Pierre, it's impossible to argue that he isn't a prolific base stealer. He's not going to pass Ricky Henderson anytime soon, but the Dodgers seem unlikely to swallow their pride and let him ride the bench in favor of Andre Ethier. He and Furcal should form a duo that is on base constantly and scores a ton of runs, with Furcal being a little more well-rounded and contributing more in other categories. Nonetheless, Pierre did hit .293 at season's end last year.

I'm very big on Andruw Jones to rebound this season. His defense guarantees him regular playing time even if he struggles at the plate, and though I doubt he'll return to 51/128, a 35/110 season (with 95 runs to boot) is a very good possibility. Looks great in the tenth round in many leagues.

People keep waiting for Saito to fail, but age has yet to take its toll on the Japanese import. The very capable Jonathan Broxton is waiting in the wings, and draftable (just like Brian Fuentes and many others) for his stats in relief and as a handcuff to one of fantasy's better closers the past two years.

Brad Penny, notorious for second half collapses, had an ERA of only 3.03 at season's end in 2008. He won 16 and struck out 135 - these numbers don't make him a staff ace, but they certainly make him worth drafting as a number two or three. If you can move him in July, it's a bonus, but if you have those numbers at season's end, you've done better than you realize. Free-agent-to-be Derek Lowe also deserves a look--he quietly struck out 147 last year and kept the ERA below 4.00 for the third straight year. Not stud numbers, but they look good rounding out a staff.

Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention the young guns on this team. Matt Kemp still looks a little better in keeper leagues, because he hasn't put together a full season yet and can't quite shake Andre Ethier in that outfield logjam. Still, he'll be great when he puts it all together. James Loney has been raking in spring training (.423 average at the time of this post), which isn't an end-all but certainly makes me optimistic for a big year. Be wary of expecting too much from Russell Martin in the way of steals - most catchers cannot keep up that pace for long. He's still a very valuable commodity at a position with no depth, though. Finally, Andy LaRoche is out 8-10 weeks, and with Nomar also missing the start of the season, third base is for the taking. It's not necessary to draft him, but put him on a watch list as he recovers.

Dodgertown is hoping for another World Series trip in this, the 20th anniversary Kirk Gibson's famous home run. They have the talent to win games, and the leader to take them to the playoffs in Joe Torre. There's plenty of reason for hope in 2008.