The Day in Review

Opening Day, and let me point out, possibly the best day of the year after a full offseason of preparation. Even as a Cubs fan, the loss was at least exciting--Fukudome looked good and could be the real deal. But on to the news...

Injury Front

• Chad Cordero gets a cortisone shot, and while the Nationals aren't mentioning a DL stint, I think it could happen. Either way, you just hold tight, and grab Rauch.
• Victor Martinez injured his hamstring and now has absolutely no chance of out-stealing Russell Martin. More seriously, it looked like the Indians catcher might have to spend some time on the DL.
• Zambrano looks to be okay after a finger scare that Rotoworld described with the phrase, "would have been a disaster". This one is worth monitoring, but I'm optimistic that Big Z will get by with the forearm cramps--pitching in the North in April ain't friendly.
• Jeff Kent, who some suspected would find the DL, hit a homer today. Pujols did the same, so both should earn a little relaxation from their fantasy owners.

Performance Notes

• I'm not going to go crazy about guys who have had one good game, but Nick Johnson has had two. The guy was an OPS stud a few years back and leagues that count that stat could do worse in their utility spot. The way that offense looked the past two games, Johnson might be worth grabbing even now.
• Lastings Milledge homered today, and I'm a believer. Kosuke Fukudome also looked great. I newly consider both third-outfielders in mixed leagues.

Hopefully your team did well, but if not, we have 161 more games for you. Check ESPN for an article about not stressing with early play, and good luck. That's what you need to know about the day.

The Walk Years, Part Two

Early in March, I posted about my favorite topic: players in walk years. Year in and year out, players with the big money contracts on the table seem to outperform every projection. Although this is not a foolproof formula (Andruw Jones, despite being a walk years, was awful last year), it is in my opinion a very consistent measure of guys to target. Here are five more players in walk years that I think could be big surprises in 2008:

Bobby Abreu, RF, New York Yankees: Abreu has been one of baseball's most consistent outfielders over the past ten years, producing in all five categories and playing outstanding defense. This spring, he's been hitting the ball at a .462 clip - you think he's ready for his last payday at age 34? I certainly do. 100/100 are minimums, 30 steals is probable, and he ought to keep the batting average close to .300 (Abreu is even more valuable if your league happens to consider OPS). 20 HR may be a stretch these days, but even 15 with his other production makes him a valuable outfielder. He's old but not yet over the hill, and I expect big things from Abreu in 2008.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Rangers: How does .300/29/90/89 sound from your third base spot? How about .276/32/110/107? How about if you can get these numbers in Round 15? Round 20? Those are Blalock's lines from 2003 and 2004, before he was bit by the injury bug. He's a 27 year old free-agent to be with a ton of upside in 2008. Things to like: He's batting cleanup behind Michael Young and Josh Hamilton. He's been so hot this spring, hitting .377 and mashing the ball. His home park is the Ballpark at Arlington, a notorious hitter's paradise. He can be had in drafts for dirt cheap right now. I know injury risks aren't always the best options, but I like Blalock to enter the prime of his career looking to get paid. CBS says .300/30/100/100 is a possibility - I think that's a stretch but maybe not a huge one. If you're busy grabbing middle infielders or outfielders early on, take a flier on Blalock late and you could be handsomely rewarded. 

Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He may not be having the monster spring of the previous two players, but Dunn is a free-agent-to-be with plenty of upside. He has mashed 40 HR exactly in three straight years, which has ensured him 100/100 numbers. It's difficult to find clocks that consistent. He also managed a bonus 9 SBs last season. In his walk year (age 28), I think it's reasonable to expect him to produce at his 2004 pace: .266/46/102/105/6. The Reds have been working with him on cutting down on the strikeouts, and I think the batting average will be no problem for his value this year. I like to target him as a solid source of power with a high ceiling heading into 2008. 

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Here is one of Zach's favorite players, and I can't disagree. In 16 spring games, he has hit .327 with 11 runs, 5 triples, 11 RBI and two steals. He's no longer plagued of the ankle injury that robbed him of his speed in 2007, and he's free to hit at the top of a fairly potent Dodger batting order. I expect him to be circling the basepaths consistently, to the tune of an easy 40 steals. Hopefully he can add the pop that will make him a very valuable fantasy commodity this year.

Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Los Angeles Angels: Big Vlad has been one of my favorite baseball players to watch for many years, because he's never afraid to hit any pitch coming his way. He's been consistently good at hitting both good pitches and bad, too, even without any protection in the lineup. My expectations for him this season: with the plethora of outfielders, he should get enough random days off so that his nagging elbow and knee problems will not flare up. He's a four category producer now - he won't give you any steals anymore, but .330/30/125/100 could very well happen. He's been good for a long time and there's no question in my mind he'll be keeping it up throughout 2008.

To update my previous post: Joe Nathan was signed to a four-year deal. This takes him out of the walk year formula but to me increases his value, because it ensures that he will close for the entire season (barring injury). It also increases K-Rod's value slightly, because the market has been set for him. He is younger than Nathan and will look to get more dollars than him this off-season. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. I'll have five more names I'd like to discuss later in the week, so be sure to check back. It's probably too late to draft these guys, but look to trade for them in your early season maneuvering.

The Day in Review

I just finished watching the Braves Nationals game and let me say... wow. As a Ryan Zimmerman owner and overrater, I'm glad that my faith for now rests firm. It was just a great game to open the season here in the U.S. (As a side note, the crowd didn't seem to pleased when good ole' G.W. threw out that opening pitch. Imagine all the Sandlot-derived humor if Hillary had the honor)

Injury Watch

• Chad Cordero wasn't in there to witness poor defensive play by Paul Lo Duca, as he was out with arm stiffness. If you have a roster spot, grab Jon Rauch. I expect Cordero to be back quickly but Rauch is a decent pitcher with a speck of upside now.
• Good news on Smoltz, Beckett, and Kazmir today. Expect Smoltz back in the first week, Beckett optimistically by the second, and Kazmir optimistically in the late third. Either way, they have all progressed accordingly.
• Andy Pettitte and Randy Johnson both found themselves officially on the DL today. If you have the spot for them, throw them on it (I didn't so dropped Pettitte). If you have an open DL spot, what are you thinking? Pick someone up, with Johnson being a prime candidate.

Demotions/Promotions

• Juan Pierre is riding the pine, so I can like the Dodgers again. Andre Ethier is worth grabbing in deeper leagues or 5 OF leagues, as he's been hot this Spring. Also, this sets Furcal up to lead off, just another reason to love the SS.
• Kershaw is back to the minors, but he's only 20 so this is reasonable. His LA counterpart Nick Adenhart also went back to the minors, though this decision was easier due to his performance. Dustin Moseley isn't really worth grabbing, but Joe Saunders doesn't get any hype despite a great spring.
  

For those of you who watched the game, you'll agree that Tim Hudson looked dominant. I don't care who you're playing, that sort of sinking action is going to be effective. I had Hudson pegged as unlikely to repeat last season but he does have a good degree of upside. That's what you need to know about the day.

ESPN Keeper League

Hey everybody! As promised, here is my team from a recent draft in a league with some friends through ESPN. I like my team a lot - I felt I had the best two keepers in A-Rod and Jimmy Rollins, and my team turned out great overall. 

Lineup: 

• C Russell Martin (4)
• 1B Mark Teixeira (3, technically my first selection)
• 2B Brian Roberts (5)
• SS Jimmy Rollins (Keeper)
• 3B Alex Rodriguez (Keeper)
• OF Adam Dunn (6)
• OF Jason Bay (8)
• OF Josh Hamilton (10)
• UTIL Andruw Jones (11)

Pitching:

• Brett Myers (9)
• Dustin McGowan (12)
• Jered Weaver (14)
• Chad Billingsley (15)
• Greg Maddux (17)
• Jon Garland (19)
• Jon Lester (21)
• Chris Carpenter (20) (DL)

Closers:

• Billy Wagner (7)
• Manny Corpas (11)
• Kerry Wood (16)
• Brandon Lyon (18)

Okay, the pitching staff is really bad. Nonetheless, I am highly optimistic about this team. Here's why:

I have a disgusting infield. I'll have no problem with power or stolen bases. I don't think Dunn and Jones will combine to hit .250, and I think my whole infield could hit above .300, so my team average won't be that bad. I have four closers, and should have no trouble accumulating saves.

My major flaws: 

Closers can and do lose their jobs, so those could soon be worthless commodities. I'm actually trying to grab one of Nathan, Papelbon, Putz, or Webb from the player who has all four - a stud would make this pitching staff look much better. 

That team average could be weak. We'll see how Jones adjusts to Dodger Stadium, and we'll see if Bay or Hamilton can truly perform.

Pitching was going early in this draft, and I drafted against it. Look at every guy - they are going a round or more below their projected position. For better or worse, I felt like every pick I made was a steal (until I realized I had no pitching). Still, Chris Carpenter in the second-to-last round, could come around mid-season and be a big help. You never know. Thoughts on my team? Do I need to move Jones or Dunn to salvage my team average?

Bonus points if you can tell me something fun about Adam Hyzdu, the player for whom my team is named. 

Sunk Costs are Sunk

One of the posters brought up Manny Ramirez last year, and it definitely deserves a post of its own. The phrase "sunk costs are sunk" is a catch-phrase of economics. Borrowing an example from freakonomics (albeit paraphrased and slightly amended)...

Say, you've purchased movie tickets ahead of time to a theater downtown. However, the night of the movie you are worn out and there's a Seinfeld marathon all night. Now, many would feel obligated to attend the theater, having already spent the recusant dough. The economist would argue that the greatest satisfaction at that point is independent of the cost of the movie tickets, since such costs are "sunk."

Now, let's say you drafted Manny Ramirez in the second round of last year's draft, and he's failing (flailing?) miserably at the plate. Do you bench him, drop him, trade him, or just start him every night with blind faith in the Red Sox. Well, unless you are from Boston, we can count that last one out. Regardless of how much you invested in the player, such investment is a sunk cost, and like an MLB team not named the Dodgers you should play the outfielder who will help you the most.

Now, what about the other options? I would recommend not dropping him by the following logic. While the cost of you using a roster spot is tangible, it is lower than the risk of someone else picking him up and the player returning to form. Last year alone I picked up Alex Rios and Paul Konerko, and should have won the league.

Finally, to the question of trading him. If it is early in the year, and he still has value for being drafted in the so-and-so round, do it. If you are getting what you put into him, and there's a risk he will be a bust, trades like that should help you over the course of a season. If it is late, and the player doesn't look like they will perform, trade them for above-marginal value. Otherwise, you might as well have dropped them, an action which will hurt you.

Ask the Experts: Texas Rangers

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to post five questions to Texas Rangers beat writer Evan Grant. Evan writes for the Dallas Morning News. There are a lot of questions concerning this ball club for the 2008 season, so lets see what he has to say.

• Josh Hamilton had a tremendous return to baseball last season (.292, 19 HR). Do you see his position in the batting order affecting the way he follows up on that performance?
  
• Evan Grant: I think he will start out in the No. 2 spot, but by the end of the year, he could be this team’s cleanup guy. I don’t think where he hits will have any impact on his batting average or power numbers, but obviously he may not have as many run-producing opps in the No. 2 spot. If he plays a full season, he’s going to hit about 30 homers and his batting average will probably sit right about where it was last year, maybe even a bit higher.
  

How do you see Jarrod Saltalamacchia performing in his first full season in the major leagues?
Evan Gant: Not sure this will be his first full season in the big leagues. Rangers aren’t opposed to sending him to Oklahoma if he does not win starting catcher’s job. If club thinks he is better served by playing every day at Triple-A, they will start the year with Gerald Laird behind the plate and possibly take Adam Melhuse as backup. Hard to make a prediction on Salty given all the uncertainty. Last year, he was called up, changed positions regularly and then changed leagues. I think if he goes to OKC, works on defense a bit, and comes up around the trading deadline, he’ll be much more suited to being the long-term catcher.

• Who do you see opening the season as the team’s closer? Do you see Kazuo Fukumori eventually taking over the role?
  
• Evan Grant: CJ Wilson is the closer to start the year if he’s healthy. Currently he’s dealing with biceps tendinitis. If Wilson flops or is on the DL, I think Eddie Guardado would get first shot at the closer’s role. The Rangers want Fukumori to be one of their setup men. But he’s been pretty good so far in spring and he impressed the Rangers by working out of a jam the defense made for him last week. Guardado is no lock to be closer, either. You know, the club never thought Aki Otsuka would end up being their closer, but he was and he did a good job. Fukumori, like Otsuka, doesn’t really have closer stuff, but his lack of fear and willingness to throw strikes may make for the lack of raw stuff. 

Even with the questions surrounding Hank Blalock’s health, it would appear that the team should get solid offense from their infielders. Who do you see producing the best season of the four (Broussard, Kinlser, Young and Blalock)?
Evan Grant: Going to be hard to beat Michael Young since you can almost certainly put him down for a .300 season and 200 hits and last year was a DOWN year for him. But Kinsler is a rising star and I could see him going 30-30 this year with an average in the .280 range and a .350 OBP. I think this is the year he establishes himself as a star. Does it mean he has a bigger year than Young overall? Not sure. But he’s going to be productive.

• Is Milton Bradley expected to be ready for Opening Day and how do you see him producing this season?
  
• Evan Grant: Bradley expects to be able to DH by opening day, but I don’t think the Rangers will put him in the outfield until sometime into April. For me, the question about Bradley is not how he produces, but if he can stay on the field. Only one season with more than 101 games. Bradley has really nice numbers in the cleanup spot and with Kinsler, Hamilton and Young ahead of him, he should get plenty of run-producing chances. The year he played 140 games, he hit .267 with 19 homers and 67 RBIs. I’m comfortable saying that he’ll have closer to 25 homers and 100 RBIs if he plays 140 games for the Rangers this season.
  

The Day in Review

All has been Quiet on the Fantasy Front... I've been searching for a story but can't find too much. Escobar is gone, probably for the season. Chris Capuano has declined surgery, but this doesn't really matter because he won't be owned except in the deepest of leagues. Doug Davis has thyroid cancer - terrible news, but the prognosis is good because he is healthy and they caught it early. Hopefully he will have a speedy recovery.

The Nationals open their new stadium on Sunday. I'm so ready for actual baseball to start. Look for me to post my keeper team and a little discussion tomorrow.

That's all you need to know for today.

Ask the Experts: Anaheim Angel

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to Bill Plunkett, a beat writer who follows the Los Angeles Angels for the Orange County Register. He provided us with some in depth answers about a team that I feel has a lot more question marks than most analysts care to admit.

• Do you think that Torii Hunter will provide the protection the Angel have been seeking for Vladimir Guerrero or do you think the team is still in need of another big hitter?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I don’t think Vlad needs protection. He does fine on his own. However, I still think there is a big gap between the offensive firepower they have in Detroit and Boston and New York and Cleveland, too, I guess. I don’t think Torii Hunter alone bridges that gap. Torii Hunter plus a healthy Garret Anderson (a highly unlikely pipe dream at this point in his career) plus a full season from Howie Kendrick plus continued development by Casey Kotchman? Maybe that gives the lineup enough depth to be a sufficient complement to elite-level pitching (if they get “elite-level” pitching). The Angels were in the top 5 in runs scored last season even with all their problems/deficiencies and I suspect they will be right there again during the 2008 season. It’s in the playoff where the Angels’ brand of offense hasn’t worked in the past few years and I don’t see those matchups working out any more in their favor now, Hunter or no Hunter.
  

The rotation appears to be very deep, but injuries already seem like they could be a problem. Do you have any update on the condition of Kelvim Escobar and how do you see the Angels filling out the back-end of its rotation in the interim?
Bill Plunkett: Escobar has been the invisible man this spring. Almost all of the rehab and physical therapy he is doing for the sore shoulder is done off site, away from Tempe Diablo Stadium. We’ve only seen him in the clubhouse a couple times all spring. That means the only updates we get are through Angels manager Mike Scioscia — and those second-hand interpretations of how Escobar is doing are not terribly informative. Scioscia originally told us Escobar would start a throwing program in the “second or third week of March.” Well, here we are — and still no sign of Escobar. By my math, it would take a minimum of six weeks to go from the start of a throwing program to rejoining the Angels’ rotation — four weeks to go from flat ground throwing to long toss to throwing off a mound to throwing to hitters, then another two weeks to make a minimum of three rehab game appearances. That’s an optimistic estimate which, as of today, puts Escobar’s return somewhere in early to mid-May. And I would have my concerns about a recurrence of this problem at some point later in the season. Remember — he had this problem last September and it persisted through the winter. That means the rotation for at least the first month of the season will be Lackey, Garland, Weaver, Santana, Saunders. I think Lackey’s spring elbow problem will be forgotten quickly. Garland will be a solid No. 2 and Weaver could be the linchpin — how he does could push the Angels in one direction or the other. He has looked terrific so far this spring. Can’t say the same for Santana.

• Who do you ultimately see filling the shortstop role, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood?
  
• Bill Plunkett: Aybar. And Izturis. Then Aybar again and Izturis some more. I don’t see either player emerging as the every-day guy. I think it will be a time-share arrangement much like the Mathis-Napoli combo at catcher. Whether it’s Aybar or Izturis from day-to-day will depend on how each is going and what the team’s needs (defensively and offensively) are on a given day against a given opponent. As for Wood, his time is coming — but it’s not here yet. He still needs a lot of work on pitch recognition — like so many young power hitters, he chases way too many breaking pitches out of the strike zone.
  

How do you see the Angels rotating Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera between the left field and designated hitter spots?
Bill Plunkett: I think that will take care of itself for much of the season based on which players are healthy. I don’t see much playing time for Willits other than as a late-inning defensive replacement on the corners. But I do see Rivera forcing his way into a bigger role, much as he did in 2006. If I had to put numbers to it at this point in the spring I would guess the DH starts would break down this way — 60-65 for Anderson, 40-45 for Guerrero, 10-15 for Matthews, 30-40 for Rivera, a handful for Hunter. But I could see Rivera’s share going up.

• The Angels have some young players filling some key line-up spots in Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli. Who do you see having the better offensive season in ‘08?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I think Kendrick is going to have a breakout season. People forget he has already hit .306 in his first 160 big-league games including .322 with a .450 slugging percentage between the two hand injuries last season. Those were just fluke injuries and not something you can look at as a sign of future trouble. This guy is a hitter and I could see him developing into an All-Star in a couple seasons. He and Kotchman hold the key to the Angels’ offense this season – if they continue to develop into the kind of hitters the Angels think they can be, that lineup suddenly becomes seven deep. I don’t think the Angels are going to get much in the way of offense from either catcher. But Scioscia doesn’t ask for that from his catchers.
  

ESPN Keeper League

Well, I know many of you enjoyed the "Expert Draft" series, but I'm not going to lie to you--this league here is mostly high school friends. Many of the players didn't attend the draft, while those that were there made a couple questionable picks between generally good drafts. Here's my team (I kept Alfonso Soriano and Hanley Ramirez from last year - forcing me to drop Carl Crawford so it was a close call).

• C - Geovany Soto (I have him in every league I'm in, and that worries me more than his Spring)
  
• 1B - Derrek Lee (2nd)
  
• 2B - B.J. Upton (1st)
  
• 3B - Alex Gordon / Hank Blalock
  
• SS - Hanley Ramirez
  
• OF - Alfonso Soriano
  
• OF - Alex Rios (5th pick, I'll explain soon)
  
• OF - Shane Victorino
  
• Util - Billy Butler

• SPs: Scott Kazmir (5th), Felix Hernandez (6th), Rich Hill (7th), Javier Javquez (8th), Pedro Martinez, Matt Garza
  
• RPs: Rafael Soriano, Joakim Soria, Jeremy Accardo, Joba Chamberlain, Brian Fuentes
  

Comments...

The league drafted pitchers much more quickly than any league I've been in before, and I think Rios was the product of not jumping on the bandwagon. My 5th-8th picks were all pitchers to try to establish a core, and I'm pretty happy with it. Of course, I had to ditch a big-name bullpen, though some of these guys are good bets when it comes to peripherals (more helpful in H2H leagues like this in my opinion).

I missed out on Atkins because the team with Wright took him with their 2nd pick. I thought he'd round the corner where the two owners had Wright and Cabrera, but I learned a lesson. I'd still advise betting on team managers to focus on roster needs, though if you won't recover from the loss you should probably grab the guy you want.

Pete will soon post his team so you guys can have a good time comparing. We have probably the best two teams in the league, in small part to having either A-Rod or H-Ram. So what are your thoughts?

Closers: Part II

So, hopefully I've convinced you that a team's record isn't a crucial factor when considering a closer. While closer is the only position that will get you saves, the pitchers will contribute to every category, so peripherals must be considered. Also, a good closer will contribute to wins and strikeouts. For instance, Francisco Rodriguez had 46 more strikeouts than Trevor Hoffman, while J.J. Putz had 6 wins to Todd Jones's 1. A difference of this magnitude among starting pitchers regarding either category would be considered substantial, but fantasy analysts tend to ignore them when they look at closers.

What factors should you consider? Well, peripherals are very important, along with durability and bullpen competition. Since it doesn't hurt to consider, winningness of the team can at least separate two close competitors. Lets look at these categories, using Zips and PECOTA for statistics, to find some possible steals.

Peripherals: B.J. Ryan (ERA 2.08, WHIP 1.03), Joakim Soria (ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.07), Huston Street (ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.03), George Sherrill (ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.18)

• Soria and Street are bargains, while the other two will come up later. The big four all have a projected ERA under 3.00 - which guys don't? Valverde and Cordero to name a couple. Check fangraphs for the data.

Durability: Every year, roughly fifteen closers lose their job due to injury or breakdowns. Some guys to be aware of this year as injury risks are Percival (age), Borowski (age), Rivera (age), Hoffman (age), Saito (age), Papelbon (showed fatigue last year, Red Sox showed extreme caution), Street (injured last season, seems healthy), Ryan (coming off Tommy John a bit early), Soriano (consistent injury troubles), Lidge (already hurt), Wood (consistent injury history). 

• Of these guys, I trust Rivera, Hoffman, Street, and to a lesser extent Papelbon to beat the odds and play a full season. Everyone else will likely see at least 15 days on the DL.
  

Bullpen Condition: Closers lose the gig every year, sometimes even when they pitch a good season (look at Fuentes' overall season last year). 

• Borowski should lose his job to Rafael Betancourt. Saito will be threatened by Broxton, but I think should hold on. It could be interesting if Rivera struggles and Joba Chamberlain pitches like last year. I could see Gagne exploding, with either Salomon Torres or Derrick Turnbow filling in. C.J. Wilson might be pressed by recent import Kazuo Fukumori, who has pitched well this spring and could open camp as the closer (also, Guardado was at one point the speculated closer, and he does have the most experience of that pen). Finally, Kerry Wood will fight for the job all season from the likes of Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol--The Cubs tolerated Dempster last year so I think Wood's leash might be pretty long once he earns the spot.
• Closers get traded around the deadline every year. Beware of losing your saves from Joe Nathan, Chad Cordero, Kevin Gregg, and George Sherrill. Nathan is the least likely to move-though the Twins might feel forced to-and I can't see him not closing or on a competitive team that will need a closer barring injury. Also, beware that Soria may be tried as a starting pitcher.

Winningness: Referring to the first post, which teams will be new to the winners bracket (above .500 for our purposes) and the losers bracket? Nothing really new here,

• New Winning Teams - Tampa Bay
• New Losing Teams - Seattle 

So, who would I say is underrated heading into this season? Well, there isn't much to complain about among Francisco Rodriguez, who is in a walk year, and J.J. Putz (whose newly projected losers will still win 73 games). If you waited till the twelfth round in a ten team league (10th in a twelve team league) you'd still see respectable names-as in unblemished by the aforementioned considerations-such as Street, Corpas, Capps, and Isringhausen. All of these guys could serve as a number two closer or paired and accompanied by a riskier late round pick like Betancourt, Wood, or Ryan.

The most important factor thing to recognize is that having a solid bullpen will provide saves, but also contribute to other categories. Last year Francisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen, and Jose Valverde-already their team's closer-went after the 120th pick. Other guys like Matt Capps, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Accardo provided value from the waiver wire. If I had to pick this years "surprise three" it would be Street, Soria, and Ryan.

The Day in Review

Hey everyone. I'm a very lazy college freshmen, so I'm happy to report that nothing really happened today. With the extra time I'd like to report a few things...

For those of you looking for new blogs, I have a "database" to recommend. The RotoFeed describes itself as " a totally free RSS service that aggregates all the best fantasy baseball blogs, columns and podcasts into a single, real-time feed. It basically wraps up thevarious RSS feeds from each of those into one feed." They picked up on our blog from the beginning and I'm happy to recommend their services.

Prospect Watch

• If you haven't heard, Joe Crede will start third base for the White Sox, which means Josh Fields is headed back to the minors. I think Fields will come up sometime this season and put up numbers like Swisher did last year. Swisher on the other hand will put up 35 HRs, so I'd recommend him.

Later tonight I'll be posting the results of my keeper league draft (a little late I know, but its not my fault). My keepers, as I mentioned before, are Hanley Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. If you have a chance before eleven, rank the following: Sizemore, Beltran, Upton, and Teixeira. Its an ESPN league, so same as Yahoo! as far as the roster goes.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Ask the Experts: New York Yankees

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to post five questions to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. I figured with the offenses that the Yankees and Mets are looking to "commit" this year, these constitute good reads.

• What role do you see Joba Chamberlain filling coming out of Spring Training? Do you see any innings limit being put on him?
  
• Mark Feinsand: Brian Cashman won’t say what it is, but the innings limit on Joba will probably be around 140 or so. I think he’s going to start the year in the bullpen, and if they decide/need/want to move him into the rotation a month or two into the season, they’ll send him to the minors to stretch him out. Personally, I think he is best fit to be the setup guy this year, throwing about 120-130 innings out of the pen. If they use him like they used Mariano Rivera in 1996, they would have a tremendous bullpen. 

What are the chances that Ian Kennedy is able to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training? If he doesn’t, do you see him making an impact this season?
Mark Feinsand: I think Kennedy will win a spot in the rotation unless he completely falls apart. His inning limit will be approximately 190-195 from what I can figure, which isn’t really much of a limit at all. Remember, Kennedy was a polished college pitcher, so even though he was drafted less than two years ago, he’s experienced to some degree.

• How do you see the Yankees handling the 1B situation? If it’s not Jason Giambi full-time, what role do you see him playing on this team in ‘08?
  
• Mark Feinsand: Joe Girardi has made several comments that indicate he would like to see Giambi play first base on a regular basis, so he’ll be given that opportunity. Of course, that’s assuming Giambi can stay healthy enough to do so. Shelley Duncan will see some time at first, and I look at Morgan Ensberg as a darkhorse to win the job this spring. I could easily see Ensberg making this team. 
  

With Robinson Cano quickly becoming one of the top young hitters in the game, where in the order do you see him batting this season? Is there any chance they ultimately move him to the #2 or 3 spot by season’s end?
Mark Feinsand: I see Cano batting seventh or eighth this year, since there are still too many veterans ahead of him. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod, Posada, Matsui, Giambi, Cano, Cabrera. That seems about right to me. As good as Cano is, it’s not like hitting seventh or eighth in this lineup is a problem, since guys will still be on base ahead of him. Now, in 2009, with Giambi and Abreu likely gone, I could see Cano sliding up to the #3 spot that season.

The Day in Review

Its been another active day around the league, with some bad news concerning a few things. First, I must digress that the Cubs don't look to get Brian Roberts any time soon, so I've wasted an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out a new lineup. But onto real news...

Injury Watch

• Kelvim Escobar is likely to miss at least half the season, but I'm betting on the whole thing. I just flat out dropped him in my Sports Writers league and don't think he's worth going near. If there's a free agent out there you had your eyes on, just cut your losses. You'll need that DL spot for someone who might actually pitch later in the year.
• Carlos Gomez appears healthy despite the scare. I'm concerned that he might steal less after the hamstring pull, and thats really all he's good for.
• Hanley Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano (my two keepers by the way) are going to try to avoid injury this year by running less. If this means they are moving down the order and will see more RBI chances, its okay. Still, it puts a dent in both of their fantasy value if the managers' requests come to fruition.

Prospect Watch

• Salty is back in the minors. For those of you drafting him ahead of guys like Johjima or Soto, you were warned by most analysts. In shallow leagues, Kurt Suzuki or Carlos Ruiz might be available. Otherwise you'll probably have to settle for Laird.
• Homer Bailey was optioned to the minors, which I find a bit surprising. Johnny Cueto could be a viable option based on how the Reds are treating him.

A few notable performances of the day: Rich Harden had a great first outing. For some reason I think he will stay healthy long enough to be worth the draft pick, and I don't even own the guy. Also, based on Jered Weaver's spring and the performance he showed when he first hit the majors, you might want to write last season off as a sophomore slump. Josh Hamilton continues to seem undervalued in my opinion, but I tend to think injury risk is overrated (all players carry risk, and with the exception of Ben Sheets is tough to predict). Piniella mused today that Fukudome might bat leadoff against lefties, which could mean an increase in steals. I think the guy could go 15-15, but with all the balanced outfielders out there you could do better.

Thats what you need to know about the day.

Grand Theft Roto

Often, ESPN runs a feature called Grand Theft Roto, where the writer picks out players that are overperforming or underperforming and says to either trade them for a farm or trade the farm. This is about as parallel to the stock market as we could get, but I figured it needed a little bit more objectivity...

This is the last time in awhile that I will bring up "tiers" from a purely strategic sense, but it warrants discussion. When is a player worth "selling high". Well, I would say that if a player is playing a tier above where you expect him to perform, you can gain marginal value. If he is performing better but still within his tier, you might want to simply hold. You likely won't gain a substantial bounty.

Secondly, when is a player worth "buying low". This one is more valuable, for if a player is performing a tier less than you project, get him. Most players return to their tier, and it's especially likely that a player will return to his norm if it's just a slump (watch injuries though).

What does it mean to "project a player isn't in the right tier"? Really, this is a gut instinct. If you ranked someone in a certain place during the offseason and they aren't living up to it, go after them unless you believe the underperforming version is the real player. Likewise, if a player is performing above what you thought, but you think that he will maintain that, don't trade him. Even if you turn out wrong, you will have done what you thought was right, and hence should be more satisfied. 

Ask the Experts: New York Mets

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to the New York Daily News’ Adam Rubin. The following interview is from their blog, and I'd encourage you to check it out for individual threads about each of the day's events.

• After struggling down the stretch last season, how do you see Jose Reyes bouncing back?
  
• Adam Rubin: I don’t believe there will be any carryover from Reyes’ miserable September to 2008. If you believe the Mets’ assertion, it was simply an ill-timed slump. In case he ran out of gas, the Mets will try to give Reyes a few extra days off this season. And if there was any fraying of the relationship between Willie Randolph and Reyes after he was pulled in Houston before the All-Star break, I’m sure a winter apart and Randolph’s visit to Reyes’ parents’ home in the Dominican Republic a couple of weeks before spring training have smoothed over everything. 
  

The top of the Mets rotation appears to be able to stack up with anyone in baseball. How do you see the combination of Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez performing?
Adam Rubin: Any mild downturn Santana experienced in late ‘07 should be more than offset by moving to the National League. The key with Pedro, of course, is health, but he claims to feel as good as at any time since 1998 when he was in the midst of winning Cy Youngs. If John Maine and Oliver Perez can just duplicate their ‘07 seasons, it’s hard to imagine the Mets not in the postseason.

• How do you see Carlos Delgado rebounding from what was arguably his worst season as an every day player?
  

• Adam Rubin: Delgado is a big question mark. It’s very possible his years on artificial turf in Toronto, coupled with catching in the minors, are catching up to him. He says the broken hand is fine, and that he started swinging a bat in early January. Delgado steadfastly maintains he hasn’t lost any bat speed. Willie Randolph hasn’t sounded quite as sure, and has suggested Delgado was stubborn swinging at up-and-in pitches he can no longer turn on that he should be taking for balls. Randolph also wants to see Delgado use left field more.

What expectations do you have for the back-end of the Mets rotation, most notably Oliver Perez and John Maine?
Adam Rubin: Scott Boras compared Perez to Erik Bedard in the arbitration hearing. We’ll see if that turns out to be a valid comparison in Perez’s walk year. Perez obviously has been inconsistent, so we’ll find out if he’s turned a corner. So many things went well early for Maine last year. It’s entirely conceivable he ends up in the low teens in wins this season.

• After having a solid season last year, including 59 extra base hits, how do you see Ryan Church fairing as he Mets everyday right fielder?
  
• Adam Rubin: Church will hit no higher than seventh, so his performance is not make-or-break for the Mets. He’s adamant a lot of the doubles he hit at RFK will be home runs at Shea. He’s also adamant he can hit lefty pitching. The jury is still out. If he can’t, Damion Easley and Endy Chavez should pick up at-bats in right field.
  

The Day in Review

Hey everyone. The baseball season has started, and if you own Huston Street (as I do), you weren't all that thrilled. Daisuke recovered nicely, but for some reason I'm suspicious of him, and the Red Sox--as if anyone doubted them--beat the Athletics.

Injury Watch

• Kelvim Escobar experienced a setback, and while the Angels haven't yet set a timetable for awhile, it's looking like it might be a while. He has no value right now, so if you drafted him, you might as well hold, but treat your rotation as if its short one of its better pitchers.
• John Smoltz and Josh Beckett, although likely to miss a week or so, are progressing nicely and should be able to recover quickly from their injuries.
• Scott Kazmir was placed on the DL. Tell this to Yahoo!, who is yet to make him DL-eligible.
• Nate McLouth had missed some time with strep throat but returned to the lineup today, answering any questions of his readiness for the Pirate's opener. He's still a nice sleeper even in shallow leagues.

Prospect Watch

• In a surprising move, the Brewers cut Claudio Vargas, establishing a rotation of Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra. Parra is worth grabbing if you have a roster spot available, especially as a fill in for Kazmir or other starter missing time in April. The last two of the rotation may lose their job once Gallardo comes back, but Manny Parra is one of three pitchers I'm watching this season.
• The other two of those pitchers, Nick Adenhart and Clayton Kershaw, had much different games today. Adenhart, who was competing with Moseley for a fifth rotation spot, gave up nine earned in 4.0 innings, raising his Spring ERA to 5.16. Kershaw, who doesn't (yet) have a rotation spot, pitched three innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, throwing in a whopping six strikeout.

Thats what you need to know about the day.

San Francisco Giants

It's been a long journey across the majors, and it's a relief that it's about to end in San Francisco. It's a relief that it's ending here, because this analysis ought to be short and sweet. Every other team in the West can talk reasonably of winning the division; this one can talk only of finishing in last by a lot. Life without Barry Bonds is as cold and empty as life with him.

Lineup

• LF Dave Roberts
• 3B Kevin Frandsen
• RF Randy Winn
• C Bengie Molina

• CF Aaron Rowand
  
• 2B Ray Durham
• 1B Dan Ortmeier
• SS Omar Vizquel

Rotation

• Matt Cain
• Barry Zito
• Tim Lincecum
• Noah Lowry
• Kevin Correia

Closer: Brian Wilson

Thoughts...

Yes, this is a pretty bad team, but the good news is: I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance! On a more serious note, there are a few reasons for optimism here.

1. Cain is a very good starting pitcher, who is mostly wins away from being truly outstanding. Maybe in a year or two, he'll be able to supplement his 170ish strikeouts and ERA around 3.50 with a few victories. 

2. Lincecum is going to be great. Someday. It might even be someday soon, but like Cain, he will be plagued by a lack of run support and wins.

3. A catcher is hitting cleanup. It's Bengie Molina, who's no Victor Martinez, but he does have back-to-back 19 HR years and will get RBI chances hitting fourth. 

4. You can get Randy Winn for nothing, literally, and he's produced double digit homeruns and steals for the past six seasons. He's not outstanding, but in deeper leagues he's a hidden gem. Or something like that.

5. Barry Bonds is gone. That's a good thing, right?

That about covers the Giants. Personally, I'm avoiding this team like everyone else. They're going to get run all over by the elite teams of their division. Maybe in a couple years, if Rajai Davis and the youngsters get the chance to grow, this team will win some games again, but for 2008, I'm not too hopeful.

Why Quantize?

So why is using quantum baseball mechanics worthwhile? Well, your opinion of your team is a product of your satisfaction with the team; if you gain equal satisfaction from two players, then they are on the same tier, and any trading should only focus on gaining a player on a better tier. Giving away trade-fodder (MPs) to gain a player on the same tier will reduce your team to a position where it has either...

peaked: You cannot make any trade without giving up more than you are getting. Hence, your team cannot improve. The free agent market cannot provide improvement or trade fodder in this condition.

-or-

plundered: You have traded so many "2 for 1"s that your team consists largely of free agent gambles. The issue here isn't so much that you have a weak team, but that the league associates your pitching with the free agency, and hence there is little appeal to those players regardless of performance.

Hence, trade strategy should revolve around which of these conditions is more likely. A Tier 1 for Tier 2 + league minimum pitcher is fair, but it only worthwhile if you think someone will develop from free agency. In a competitive league--read "efficient market"--those free agent players should vanish quickly.

The Day in Review

It's been a less-than-exciting Monday in fantasy baseball. Here's the recap of the day's bad news:

Injury Watch

• Josh Beckett is officially on the DL, retroactive to March 19. The good news: he should be eligible to pitch within the first two weeks of the season. The bad news: an early DL stint is definitely bad news for a guy I don't trust to stay healthy for an entire year. You can bet Boston will treat their October ace gingerly all season, to make sure he's healthy for the playoff run.
• John Smoltz is not officially on the DL yet, but the Braves don't actually need a fifth starter until April 6. It's very possible he won't pitch until then - hopefully age isn't catching up with the old horse. Tread softly.
• Brad Lidge will also be starting the season on the DL. He's eligible to be back April 5 - not soon enough to lose his job to Tom Gordon. Philadelphia will probably be careful as long as Flash proves to be a capable fill-in. Caveat Emptor.

Demotions

• Despite an outstanding spring, Evan Longoria is being sent to Triple-A by the Tampa Bay Rays. The move is probably just Tampa trying to secure his rights for an extra year, meaning he'll be back in May. However, he's no longer worth drafting as a sleeper at the end of your drafts.
• Minnesota is starting Francisco Liriano off the minors. He is still recovering from surgery in 2006, and the Twins have to value him too much to rush him back. He'll make a few starts there until he is in better form, then return to the rotation.
• Cameron Maybin, one of the prizes of the Miguel Cabrera trade, was sent to Double-A by the Florida Marlins. This was not totally unexpected, but keep his name on the horizon in keeper and dynasty leagues if he reappears later this year.

Position Battles

• The Cubs rotation is set, with Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis edging Jon Lieber for the open spots. Kerry Wood, as expected, will close.
• Carlos Gomez will be playing center field for Minnesota. He's fast, and if he gets regular at-bats he could be a steals contributor if you need some this year.

Joey Votto hasn't been demoted yet, but Scott Hatteberg is hitting well and Reds manager Dusty Baker loves his veterans. Still no word on where Barry Bonds will end up this year. That's what you need to know for the day.

Quantum (Baseball) Mechanics

The following is a reprinted article from before Rotonomics worked with MLB Front Office. We here at the blog consider it beneficial reading to our new readers.

Ah, theoretical physics. I can't help but consider whether or not I'd have been up to a career in this field had I never become obsessed with fantasy baseball. But as that is a path long ago abandoned, I must instead integrate one particular idea into the dirt baseline of the fantasy world. Quantum mechanics involves the premise that all energy is divisible into quanta, the smallest form it can maintain. In Quantum Baseball Mechanics, this "smallest form" of value is what I call "minimum pitcher above free agency" (marginal pitcher or MP). It relies on the following condition: in every fantasy baseball league ever, every team is trying to improve their pitching core. A pitcher that is slightly better than free agency is likely sought by most every team, but it is the lowest valuable commodity in the realm of trades.

Now, marginal pitchers can be used to gage player values and team values. Often I see the phrase "tiers" applied to drafting strategies, but how do we determine which players belong in each tier. Let's define a "tier" as followed: If Player A is better than Player B so that the trade "Player A = Player B + 1 minimum pitcher above free agency", then Player A is one tier higher than Player B.

Lastly, marginal pitchers must be considered when evaluating your team. Each team's value can be determined by total "MPs", where the players are equal to the number of tiers they are over the best free agent player at that position. Hence, Utley is one tier above Phillips/Upton/Roberts, who is one tier above Cano, who is one tier above Kinsler/Kendrick/Weeks/etc., who are one tier better than free agency. Utley is worth "4 MPs" since each trade from the free agency would require a total of 4 league-minimum pitchers.

So, here's the question. What stats represent a "minimum pitcher above free agency"? I would say an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP around 1.35, and a K/9 around 6. Thoughts?

San Diego Padres

Looking at the San Diego lineup always makes me laugh before I begin to wonder how this team ever managed to win 89 and 88 games the past two years. Looking at their pitching, however, always drops my jaw - the rotation and bullpen have been stunningly good. The team made no major changes this off-season, so look for more of the same out of San Diego.

Lineup

• RF Brian Giles
• 2B Tadahito Iguchi
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 1B Adrian Gonzalez
• SS Khalil Greene
• C Josh Bard
• CF Jim Edmonds
• LF Scott Hairston

Rotation

• Jake Peavy
• Chris Young
• Greg Maddux
• Randy Wolf
• Mark Prior

Closer: Trevor Hoffman

Thoughts...

Part of the reason for the atrocious San Diego offense has to be Petco Park, right? Over the past three seasons, it has finished dead last each year in runs scored. I feel like some of the causation lies with the lineup that calls it home, but perhaps not. Adrian Gonzalez, for example, hit 10 HR at home and 20 on the road in 2007. Either way, the ballpark is yet another reason to draft pitchers, not hitters, from this team.

Speaking of Gonzalez, he spent the off-season working with Tony Gwynn and is looking to improve on 30/100/101 from last season. If only he didn't play at Petco, he'd be climbing the ranks of first basemen quickly. Still, keep your eyes on him in the middle of the draft - even if you get a first baseman early, Gonzalez looks great in a utility spot.

Seriously, though, most of the lineup isn't worth owning. It's funny to see Giles in the leadoff spot after having witnessed his power heydey in Pittsburgh, but he's no longer a power hitter. He's not worth owning in most leagues. Iguchi won't hit for power like he did in Chicago, and there are probably better options at second base. Kouzmanoff was hitting .108 a month into last season - even though he turned it around, I don't like him that much as my corner infielder. Honestly, most of this lineup isn't worth owning unless you're in a 32 team league.

Peavy and Young, however, are definitely worth owning. Great things can be expected of both in 2008, and I can't praise either one enough. Maddux still gets guys out, somehow, and could be worth drafting if you're looking to grab a starter late. ESPN called Mark Prior "the ultimate fantasy sleeper" because of his injury history, and I can't disagree. He is very talented and on an incentive-laden deal, but he's already out until May. If you are willing to take the risk, you could potentially reap huge rewards.

Finally, I'll close with the closer. Trevor Hoffman has been so good for so long that he won't lose the job unless he retires or suddenly stops throwing strikes. He can't be called an elite closer because he doesn't strike guys out, but he can be counted on for saves and makes a reliable number two. Heath Bell would be next-in-line, should anything happen because of age or ineffectiveness.

This Padres team is surprising. It's hard to determine whether Petco deflates the statistics of the lineup and inflates those of the rotation, or whether the outstanding rotation and terrible lineup create the illusion of a pitcher's park. Either way, from San Diego, draft the pitchers early and often, but take hitters at your own risk.

The Day in Review

Ah, the final half week of Spring Training. The players are warming up even if the weather refuses to follow suit, and the Red Sox and Athletics will kick of the season in Japan midweek. But for now, lets just concentrate on the day.

Injury Watch

• Chris Capuano looks to have a torn UCL, which would spell Tommy John surgery. I hate to admit it, but the Brewers have done the smart thing by holding on to their starting pitching surplus. This does a little to bump Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra's stock (please don't own Jeff Suppan, just, please). If Sheets can manage to go down earlier than expected, the Brewers could have a great DL rotation with him, Capuano, and Gallardo.
  
• Curtis Granderson broke his finger and has already found the DL. If you can manage to get him for cheap, I'd see this as a buy low opportunity. If you own him, just wait it out--he'll only miss a week.
• This one is good news. Francisco Liriano pitched well finally, throwing four hitless innings and K'ing five. If there was any doubt he wouldn't open the season in the rotation, it should be quelled.

Position Battles

• After another scoreless innings, Kerry Wood should close for the Cubs.
• There is some speculation that Huston Street might get traded to the Tigers. I doubt it, but if you're paranoid about having another reason to doubt Todd Jones you could pick up Alan Embree.
• Longoria hasn't done much to help nor hurt his case for starting at third. I hope the Rays play him, but they gain a year before free agency if he stays in the minors until May.

In miscellaneous things I expect to regret, Pujols continued to kill the ball this spring. Also, Mike Hampton pitched a solid outing and his ERA stands at 1.98. This just in, Jeff Suppan was caught stealing today, so maybe he will--oh wait, my partner is informing me that not only do pitcher's offensive stats not count, but "Caught Stealing" is neither a good thing nor relevant to fantasy scoring. So unless something happens between now and midnight, that's what you need to know about the day. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost amidst the splashes of Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera and Erik Bedard changing teams was the exile of Joe Torre from New York. The guy may not have been able to bring home the hardware since 2000, but he's still an outstanding manager who did wonders in the never-ending spotlight in New York. The Dodgers are hoping he can bring some of that magic out to the West coast and help them compete in a suddenly tough division in 2008.

Lineup

• SS Rafael Furcal
• LF Juan Pierre
• RF Matt Kemp
• CF Andruw Jones
• 2B Jeff Kent
• 1B James Loney
• C  Russell Martin
• 3B Nomar Garciaparra (Andy LaRoche)

Rotation

• Brad Penny
• Derek Lowe
• Chad Billingsley
• Hiroki Kuroda
• Jason Schmidt

Closer: Takashi Saito

Thoughts...

Whether you love or hate Juan Pierre, it's impossible to argue that he isn't a prolific base stealer. He's not going to pass Ricky Henderson anytime soon, but the Dodgers seem unlikely to swallow their pride and let him ride the bench in favor of Andre Ethier. He and Furcal should form a duo that is on base constantly and scores a ton of runs, with Furcal being a little more well-rounded and contributing more in other categories. Nonetheless, Pierre did hit .293 at season's end last year.

I'm very big on Andruw Jones to rebound this season. His defense guarantees him regular playing time even if he struggles at the plate, and though I doubt he'll return to 51/128, a 35/110 season (with 95 runs to boot) is a very good possibility. Looks great in the tenth round in many leagues.

People keep waiting for Saito to fail, but age has yet to take its toll on the Japanese import. The very capable Jonathan Broxton is waiting in the wings, and draftable (just like Brian Fuentes and many others) for his stats in relief and as a handcuff to one of fantasy's better closers the past two years.

Brad Penny, notorious for second half collapses, had an ERA of only 3.03 at season's end in 2008. He won 16 and struck out 135 - these numbers don't make him a staff ace, but they certainly make him worth drafting as a number two or three. If you can move him in July, it's a bonus, but if you have those numbers at season's end, you've done better than you realize. Free-agent-to-be Derek Lowe also deserves a look--he quietly struck out 147 last year and kept the ERA below 4.00 for the third straight year. Not stud numbers, but they look good rounding out a staff.

Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention the young guns on this team. Matt Kemp still looks a little better in keeper leagues, because he hasn't put together a full season yet and can't quite shake Andre Ethier in that outfield logjam. Still, he'll be great when he puts it all together. James Loney has been raking in spring training (.423 average at the time of this post), which isn't an end-all but certainly makes me optimistic for a big year. Be wary of expecting too much from Russell Martin in the way of steals - most catchers cannot keep up that pace for long. He's still a very valuable commodity at a position with no depth, though. Finally, Andy LaRoche is out 8-10 weeks, and with Nomar also missing the start of the season, third base is for the taking. It's not necessary to draft him, but put him on a watch list as he recovers.

Dodgertown is hoping for another World Series trip in this, the 20th anniversary Kirk Gibson's famous home run. They have the talent to win games, and the leader to take them to the playoffs in Joe Torre. There's plenty of reason for hope in 2008.

The Day in Review

Hope everyone's brackets are going well - I know I didn't have Western Kentucky playing San Diego State. Oh well - guess I'll stick to baseball.

Contract News

• This is big, at least to me - the Twins and Joe Nathan have agreed on a four-year, $12 million deal, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. I feel better about drafting him expecting a full season of saves. 
• ESPN Deportes also is reporting an 8 year extension for Miguel Cabrera in Detroit. This isn't as fantasy relevant (he wasn't in a walk year), but good for Cabrera.

Injury News

• John Smoltz was scratched from a start on Friday. He's a trooper, but at his age, you have to expect age to catch up to him. A DL stint is a definite possibility. 
• Andy Pettite also missed a start because of back spasms. The Yankees call it minor, and I doubt it's serious, but he's another older pitcher to keep an eye on. 
• Wily Mo Pena was placed on the DL today. You may need to look elsewhere in the late rounds, because he will probably miss the month of April.

Rays Set Rotation

• Scott Kazmir's injury allowed Tampa Bay to officially set their rotation. James Shields is Number 1, followed by (in order) Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, and Jason Hammel. Kazmir is officially out until mid-April but the Rays will be cautious in bringing him back. 

Cubs News

• I'd be remiss not to post this section for Zach. They are expected to name the closer on Monday, probably Kerry Wood, and they're toying with different lineups. Soriano won't return to the leadoff spot to start the season (Theriot is there now, but Fukudome could move there, or Brian Roberts if that trade ever goes through).

Albert Pujols hit 3-for-4 against Minnesota. He's hitting .400 with 5 HR and 12 RBI. I still say his ADP is too low. Josh Hamilton is also hitting .512 with 14 RBI. He's a great late-round pickup for your outfield. 

That's what you need to know for today.

Colorado Rockies

What a magical season for Colorado in 2007! They lose their three time All-Star closer to four consecutive blown saves, only to pick up a closer who would have an ERA under 1.00 in the post season. They suddenly become unbeatable at the most important time of year and have a run all the way to the World Series. With a team like that, who would want to make a change? Not Colorado, who made no major moves this off-season.

Lineup

• CF Willy Taveras
• SS Troy Tulowitzki
• LF Matt Holliday
• 1B Todd Helton
• 3B Garret Atkins
• RF Brad Hawpe
• C Yorvit Torrealba
• 2B Jayson Nix

Rotation

• Jeff Francis
• Aaron Cook
• Ubaldo Jimenez
• Franklin Morales
• Jason Hirsch

Closer: Manny Corpas

Thoughts...

Zach and I both agree that it's a mystery why Taveras doesn't get more acclaim in the fantasy baseball world. He can be had fairly late, and stole 33 bases despite a leg injury limiting him to just under 100 games. 50 is not an unreasonable expectation. 

I like Francis. He's 27 this year, a great age for pitchers to have outstanding seasons. Better yet, he's been increasing his strikeout rate and decreasing his walk rate. He was a steady performer for me last year and absolutely can be had for a great price in 2008.

If you own Corpas, grab Fuentes as a handcuff. Fuentes is a three-time All-Star and even as a set-up man, he should give you solid peripherals. 

What a lineup. Holliday belongs in the first round and you know he will be productive this year. If only Hawpe could hit left-handed pitching... hope that his .214 average against lefties doesn't limit his playing time if you draft him. Atkins is a solid third baseman and I like him in the fifth round, if only because I'm not big on most of the late third basemen. Finally, it's easy to love Helton because he's been so steady for so long, but he's no longer worth starting at first base. 

Look for Colorado to define itself as it always has: big offense and just enough pitching to get by. Still, if Francis can improve, Cook can take a step forward, and the two prospects begin to grow, this team could put it all together and be World Series-caliber for years to come.

Cleveland Indians

This Cleveland squad is keeping intact the same roster that collapsed infamously against Boston in last year's playoffs. Some would say that's good, it's a good squad; others would say "their competition is improving, they need to also." To me, this team has plenty of room to improve without major changes in 2008. 

Lineup:

• CF Grady Sizemore
• 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
• DH Travis Hafner
• C Victor Martinez
• 1B Ryan Garko
• SS Jhonny Peralta
• LF David Delucci/Jason Michaels
• RF Franklin Gutierrez
• 3B Casey Blake

Rotation:

• C.C. Sabathia
• Fausto Carmona
• Jake Westbrook
• Paul Byrd
• Cliff Lee

Closer: Joe Borowski

Thoughts...

Quickly, on the studs: Sizemore is an outstanding contributor in five categories with room to improve (if he keeps bringing up the batting average against lefties, he'll be downright scary). Martinez is there with Martin as the best catcher in fantasy; I believe Martinez is a little more dependable because his value doesn't come as much from steals. CC is a great pitcher in a walk year, and I like him to perform big. Finally, I think Pronk belongs in this category. He's universally expected to rebound and I can't disagree.

The team has two weaknesses, in my opinion: corner outfielder and closer. There are rumors they're in the market for a corner outfielder, but nothing has materialized yet (I'd love for the Indians and Pirates to resume talks about Jason Bay if he gets off to a good start). Anyone they add to this lineup would have great value. The closer issue is more me not trusting Borowski than anything else. He's signed through this year, and will keep the job as long as he remains more or less effective.

Some experts have expressed some worry about Carmona and CC because of the innings each piled up last year (215 and 241, respectively). I would worry more about Carmona being affected, but the team is being cautious with both of them. They're both extremely valuable and I think the Indians will take care of them throughout the year; this means they might occasionally miss a start but shouldn't have an extended DL stay. 

I'm not particularly optimistic about the rest of the team, though Garko could hit 30 if he matures this year. I'd like to see a big outfield bat added more than anything else, but I think this team improves by adding Hafner for a full season. The Tribe will be right there with Detroit once again when 2008 ends. 

The Day in Review

Not much to report on today really, except for the fact that Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln read our blog today and promptly responded by nixing any chance of Bonds playing for Seattle. Okay okay, he didn't actually make the statement in response to "Moves Awaiting"--but I can have my delusions of grandeur. Nonetheless, Bonds chances of playing in 2008 seem slimmer than ever, so I'm left to ponder what he will choose to do after his bold denouncement of retiring. I think that while movie stardom and sitcom showcasing may be in his later future, Barry Bonds the Health Teacher seems most fitting.

Injury Watch

• The Brewers moved Yovani Gallardo to the DL, which you should have already anticipated. However, if you haven't gotten around to doing so, shift the young player your DL spot and grab a free agent.
• Kazmir hasn't thrown for a week, and a DL stint seems inevitable. Smoltz may also see time on the list, but I remain skeptical.

Pudge Rodriguez had his 7th HR of the Spring, still leading the preseason. Chris Snyder of the Diamondbacks had his fifth and if he plays himself out of an even platoon he may be a notable catcher in 2 C leagues.

That's what you need to know for the day.

Moves Awaiting

The season is about to start, and we've had a somewhat interesting offseason, with big names such as Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera finding new teams. There are still a few names that stand to gain from a preseason move, and this potential needs considered when you head into your drafts.

Brian Roberts - I bleed Cubbie Blue, but even I have lost interest in this sweepstakes. The rumor right now is a deal that sends prospects Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, and Donald Veal-none of which should provide value this year-for the second baseman. Time is running out, and I don't particularly like Roberts' outlook on a depressing Baltimore team. However, if Roberts replaces DeRosa at second, Roberts will have a good shot at 50 SBs (Pinella is aggressive on the basepaths) and a shoe-in for 100+ runs. Soriano won't bat leadoff in all likelihood, so unless the Cubs stupidly bat him second, he's going to fit in at fifth and see a dramatic increase in RBIs. Marquis might lose even the slight value he showed during the first half of last season if he heads to the AL.

Joe Blanton - Several teams have inquired about Blanton, as the A's are in total firesale mode (interestingly, the Yankees supposedly inquired on Rich Harden, just another reason the risky righty should be considered earlier). Blanton is only 27, which points to a career year. One destination is New York, which would spell a definite increase in wins as Blanton will likely beat out Mussina for a spot in the rotation. The other destination is Cincinnati, which would destroy the pitchers minimum value as is at the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. No real side effects here.

Coco Crisp - Current rumors suggest that teams are apprehensive to take on the salary of Coco, especially if he isn't healthy. My guess is that he doesn't end up with the Cubs, so that leaves rumored destinations of San Diego and Oakland. If he stays in Boston, he'll only cut into Ellsbury's playing time in center; if he heads West, he will struggle in pitcher's parks. If Coco leaves, Ellsbury will play every day as opposed to most every day. It's not a big deal, but its something.

Joe Crede - With Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Quentin filling the outfield, the White Sox have a logjam at third between Josh Fields and Joe Crede. Aaron Rowand is rumored to have campaigned for a Crede to San Francisco deal... at this point, you should be wondering "Who cares?". Well, the only benefit is... Josh Fields would benefit from an every day role, although you should think twice about taking on a 30HR third basemen that will destroy your team's average.

Barry Bonds - I don't know about your league, but mine chose not to ban Mitchell Report players from our teams. If Bonds finds a new job, he should be owned in all leagues. Had he played every game last year, the steroid-shooting-slugger would have hit 36 HRs. Now, he is never going to play a whole season again, but there is a chance he finds a home with a couple teams next year (provided the rumored collusion hasn't occurred). Some writers have pointed to possible destinations of the Mets, Devil Rays, or Mariners. If he moves to the Mets, Spring surprise Angel Pagan is without a position until Alou comes back. Bonds would be a number two outfielder in that lineup though. The Devil Rays seem like a strange fit, though with Baldelli likely done for good Bonds could provide depth to an improved lineup. The Mariners might as well bat their pitchers like a National League Team. Why haven't they expressed an interest at the rumored $5 million price tag.

The Day in Review

One of the new features here at Rotonomics is a daily post about... the day (I know, a bit anticlimactic but I like my ellipses). Player news comes from box scores, Yahoo! player profiles, and Rotoworld, but we here think that the shallow two-sentence updates lack flavorful advice. So without further adieu, lets look at today--T minus five days till the season opener.

Injury Front

• B.J. Ryan will be out through the rest of Spring, and his status for Opening Day is now in question. Still, his health risk is no worse than the risk of comparables (C.J. Wilson, Brian Wilson) losing their jobs by May. He was already a late round gamble--so if you are looking for bullpen depth after the 20th round, he's still a fine pick.
• Kerry Wood came back after missing time yesterday due to lower back spasms. He gave up a run, but the quick return does more for his case than any outing might have. If he's on your waiver wire, grab him.
• B.J. Upton was hit with a pitch and had to leave. He's still the second best second basemen. Also, Angels outfielders Guerrero and Mathews had to leave their game, but should be fine for Opening Day.
• Nomar Garciaparra is doubtful for the season's start, which will force the Dodgers to give the job to Tony Abreu or trade for Crede/Inge. If a trade happens, keep the new additions on your radar.

Prospect Watch

• Nick Adenhart is competing with Dustin Moseley for the 5th spot in the Angels rotation, delivered to you by injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. He's worth a flier when we hear the job is his, but until then just keep visiting.
• Another touted young hurler, Manny Parra gave the Brewers an excuse to ignore his great spring. He's still pitching as I type, but his eight earned runs in 3.2 innings raised his ERA to 4.58.
• Blue chipper Jay Bruce was assigned to the minors, joining other fantasy hopeful Colby Rasmus.  Next up, Joey Votto.
• Ian Stewart is a blocked Rockies prospect that doesn't fit into the club's long term plans. Rotoworld speculates that his 4th spring homer at least boosts his trade value.
• Carlos Gomez stole his 9th base of the season. If you can't get Justin Upton, Willy Taveras, or Michael Bourne, Gomez is a fine option.

That's what you need to know for the day. And to leave you with the most notable performances of the day...

• Johan Santana finally seemed himself, pitching six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
• Rafael Furcal is underrated. His statline tonight? 4 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 SB.

Minnesota Twins

Previous Team Analyses

The Minnesota Twins lost Torii Hunter this year, but in my opinion their offense looks better than ever. On the other hand, it could be decades until their pitching resembles the years that Santana was the ace, and with the additional loss of Garza and the foreshadowed struggles of Liriano--look at his Spring Training numbers--the team will struggle to win in 2008.

Lineup:

• Carlos Gomez
• Brendan Harris
• Joe Mauer
• Justin Morneau
• Delmon Young
• Michael Cuddyer
• Jason Kubel
• Mike Lamb
• Adam Everett

Rotation:

• Francisco Liriano
• Livan Hernandez
• Scott Baker
• Boof Bonser
• Kevin Slowey

Closer: Joe Nathan

Thoughts...

New comers Carlos Gomez, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Michael Lamb, and Adam Everett replaced half of the lineup. With Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer coming off down-years in comparison with 2006, this lineup led me to consider the Twins my darkhorse for the season. While the Twins were conservative on the basepaths last year, Gomez should steal 30+ bags even in a platoon for most of the year. Jose Reyes once described the former Mets prospect as "faster than he is", so the guy earned a spot on my radar prematurely. Along with Bourne, Upton, and Taveras, Gomez seems to be a late option 4th/5th outfielder who can keep you competitive in the steals category, though provide little else.

Delmon Young is the only other acquisition that will provide fantasy relevance. He is a legitimate threat to go 20-20 and should be a five category producer. Guys like Young and Kemp make me question reaching for Markakis, Pence, and Hart in the middle rounds of drafts, since I just don't see a huge difference. In other words, Young is a steal in most drafts.

The "regulars" should all see improvement with a stronger lineup. Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 after the All Star Break, so is a solid sleeper. Morneau was not as fortunate, hitting only 7 of his 31 bombs after the Break and seeing his average drop to .243--for this reason I'd take Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Travis Hafner ahead of him. Joe Mauer hasn't averaged double digit HRs or SBs over the past three seasons, but a likely increase in RBIs and AVG does keep him a tier above Posada and company.

The pitching isn't that good. Liriano is going at about the right spot, since the risk-reward is more manageable in the 10th round. Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey struggled last year, and with Phillip Humber and Matt Guerrier pressing them for those rotation spots, they will have to perform consistently to be worth picking up. Baker and Hernandez really aren't worth paying attention to unless they seem hot to start the season, to which you will promptly pick them up and trade them as quickly as possible.

The last thing that should be addressed is Joe Nathan. I think he will have better peripherals than Putz, K-Rod, or even Papelbon, but the looming chance of a trade this summer makes me rank him beneath those three.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona, with a bunch of no-name youngsters, managed to quietly win more games than any National League team in 2007. This off-season, they made a great move by adding Dan Haren to their rotation (Randy Johnson coming back is another good addition), but made a nonsensical one - in my opinion - by trading away the league leader in saves.

Lineup:

• CF Chris Young
• SS Orlando Hudson
• 1B Conor Jackson
• LF Eric Byrnes
• 3B Mark Reynolds
• RF Justin Upton
• SS Stephen Drew
• C Chris Snyder

Rotation:

• Brandon Webb
• Dan Haren
• Randy Johnson
• Doug Davis
• Micah Owings

Closer: Brandon Lyon

Thoughts...

I really can't understand why they moved Valverde. Had they moved him to acquire Haren, it would make more sense, but they didn't. Hopefully Lyon can pick up the slack, but I'm not drafting him to save 47 this year.

Webb is absolutely a stud, in the class of Peavy and Santana. I've seen Haren called a low-end Number 1. I'd draft him as a 2 if I could, but he ought to be solid (recall this discussion of Johan Santana and the effect of a move to the NL). Randy Johnson appears to be healthy, but draft him expecting a DL stint at some point this year. 

This team is a keeper owner's dream. Justin Upton has been called many things, generally involving the words "talented" and "wow." There will be growing pains this season, but he's definitely worth owning in keeper leagues. Stephen Drew should improve this year, and I like him if you miss the top 3 at shortstop. Also, Conor Jackson is the forgotten first basemen. If you have a power-hitting team but need an average boost, Jackson is a guy going undrafted who could challenge for a batting title this year. Keep that in mind in Round 23.

Eric Byrnes has steadily improved since finding a home in Arizona. 25/25 is a reasonable expectation, and even though I don't expect him to steal 50 bases again this year, he's a producer in many categories. Chris B. Young could also go 25/25, but he needs to bring the batting average up to be a major contributer. Still, these guys that contribute in many categories are always valuable in fantasy.

The youth movement is on, but the team isn't sacrificing any wins with this young lineup. Be prepared to grow with some of these guys, but the ceiling is high for everyone on this roster.

Trendspotting: Josh Hamilton, Edgar Renteria

It's that time of year when there are no longer any sleepers, as everyone in any competitive league has done their homework. Long passed are the days that you could throw guys hidden in Mock Draft Central's preranking into your prepick queue and trust that everyone would forget that such player existed. And everyone's favorite player to employ that strategy this offseason was former-Reds centerfielder Josh Hamilton.

The case for Hamilton was strong: Last year he put up a solid line of .292/.368/.554 over the course of about half a season. His numbers, if extrapolated over the full season, would have been 93 R, 34 HR, 84 RBI, with a handful of SBs to boot. The argument against: He's an oft-injured recovered addict with little seasoning. It isn't surprising that Hamilton began the year being overdrafted, then underdrafted, and has now hit what is considered his "balance". In my opinion, he is still going too late-The guy is being treated as a concession prize for anyone who misses out on the upper tier outfielders, when in truth there are probably more question marks with Gary Sheffield and Brad Hawpe than the new Ranger. Grab him as your third outfielder before two many experts start praising his .615 Spring Training Batting Average and and seven extra-base hits (2 HRs). And for those interested, Hamilton + the reasonably-expected-15 day DL trip, if he performs like last year in a ballpark perfectly suited for him, would yield a five-category line of .292 AVG, 84 R, 30 HR, 75 RBI (not considering he's batting in the middle of his new order), and 5 steals.

On the other side of the spectrum, Edgar Renteria seems to be going too early in my opinion. Early in a postseason, player moves inflate draft position, and this usually wears off. For Orlando Cabrera, it did--but probably shouldn't have--while Edgar is still enjoying his newfound 8th spot in a stacked lineup. But people, is the 8th spot really going to deliver? Beyond this, Renteria is heading into his twelfth full season, and his numbers in the past three seasons have averaged 11 HR and 12 SBs. After missing 36 games last season, his durability should be questioned. Worse yet, his last season with the AL yielded a line of .276/.335/.385. While he's possibly a better bet than Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (I don't think so), he's going at least eighty-nine picks earlier than either, and--an even greater sin--two rounds ahead of Orlando Cabrera. If you aren't willing to settle for an up-and-comer, I'd recommend making sure you get one of the elite shortstops. 

Chicago White Sox

Team Analyses

Chicago has decided to trade their farm away and build as if they are a win-now team, which by most accounts they are not. However, for fantasy purposes the lineup has a lot of potential, especially when batting at the launching pad of U.S. Cellular.

Lineup

• Orlando Cabrera
• Nick Swisher
• Jim Thome
• Paul Konerko
• Jermaine Dye
• A.J. Pierzynski
• Josh Fields
• Carlos Quentin
• Danny Richar

Rotation

• Mark Buehrle
• Javier Vazquez
• Jose Contreras
• John Danks
• Gavin Floyd

Closer: Bobby Jenks

Thoughts...

Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher are going to put up great numbers in their new home. Cabrera gets to lead off for a potent offense, and since Thome and Konerko should decline into more doubles/sacrifice fly hitters, Cabrera should get the green light. I think he could easily go 15 HR, 30 SB with an average just under .300, which are great numbers. Swisher, on the other hand, would be lucky to bat .280, though his OBP should yield a ton of runs. In his new, much friendlier confines, he's a legitimate threat for 35+ HRs, and is slipping too far in drafts.

Thome, Konerko, and Dye are all pretty old. I was excited when I heard Konerko might go to the Angels, because of these three I see him as the most likely to rebound. However, it's looking like he'll stay nestles between the aging sluggers. All three should give you about 30 HRs, which isn't anything to scoff at, though their averages should decline. Thome and Dye carry the most injury risk, so I'd suggest choosing an upside-youngster instead.

Fields and Quentin are the youngsters. Fields probably isn't ready to bat well over .270, and at a deep 3B position isn't worth the hassle. Quentin is going undrafted in  a lot of leagues, and should provide good speed in a deeper league or as a 5th OF in some formats.

The pitching is pretty bad. Jenks and Vazquez are both underrated at their respective positions. I'll make this brief-no other pitcher on the team is worth owning. If your a raving White Sox fan, draft Garland out of sentiment.

Closers: Part I

Pete has made several comments about how closers on bad teams deal with a sort of "price ceiling" whereas closers on good teams enjoy a sort of "price floor". It is worth going into each of these terms briefly for a better explanation. A closer with a price ceiling has a minimum ADP that he theoretically should not rise above a certain number, regardless of peripherals. These would be pitchers such as Joakim Soria or Huston Street. On the other hand, closers with a price floor should be drafted no later than a particular ADP, even if they have an irrationally awful ERA and WHIP. We are, of course, talking about the Joe Borowski's and Todd Jones's of the world.

Lets look at saves vs. team wins for the 2007 season. Because most lists include save opportunities for setup men, I'm going to look only at save opportunities for closers. This assumes that the number of days closers are given off is either roughly constant across the league and also unpredictable, which I think is a fair assumption because one cannot predict "consecutive days requiring a closer".

• Boston - 96 wins                     Papelbon - T 10th with 37 saves
  
• Cleveland - 96 wins                Borowski - 2nd with 45 saves
  
• Anaheim - 94 wins                  Rodriguez - T 5th with 40 saves
  
• New York (AL) - 94 wins       Rivera - 16th with 30 saves
  
• Colorado - 90 wins             Corpas/Fuentes - total of 39 saves
  
• Arizona - 90 wins                  Valverde - 1st with 47 saves
  
• Philadelphia - 89 wins          Myers/Gordon - total of 27 saves
  
• San Diego - 89 wins             Hoffman - 4th with 42 saves
  
• Detroit - 88 wins                 Jones - 9th with 38 saves
  
• Seattle - 88 wins                  Putz - T 5th with 40 saves
  
• New York (NL) - 88 wins        Wagner - 13th with 34 saves
  
• Chicago (NL) - 85 wins          Howry/Demptser - total of 36 saves
  
• Atlanta - 84 wins                 Wickman/Soriano/Gonzalez - 31 SVs
  
• Milwaukee - 83 wins               Cordero - 3rd with 44 saves
  
• Toronto - 83 wins                   Accardo/Ryan/Frasor - 36 saves
  
• Los Angeles - 82 wins          Saito - 8th with 39 saves
  
• Minnesota - 79 wins            Nathan - T 10th with 37 saves
  
• St. Louis - 78 wins                Isringhausen - T 15th with 32 saves
  
• Oakland - 76 wins                 Street/Embree - total of 33 saves
  
• Texas - 75 wins                     Gagne/Wilson/Benoit - 34 saves
  
• Houston - 73 wins                  Lidge/Wheeler - total of 30 saves
  
• Washington - 73 wins             Cordero - T 10th with 37 saves
  
• Chicago (AL) - 72 wins             Jenks - T for 5th with 40 saves
  
• Cincinnati - 72 wins                Weathers - 14th with 33 saves
  
• San Francisco - 71 wins            Hennessey/Wilson/Benitez - 34 SVs
  
• Florida - 71 wins                      Gregg - T 15th with 32 saves
  
• Baltimore - 69 wins                  Ray/Walker/Baez - 26 saves
  
• Kansas City - 69 wins                 Dotel/Soria - 28 saves
  
• Pittsburgh - 68 wins                  Torres/Capps - 30 saves
  
• Tampa Bay - 66 wins                  Reyes - 26 saves
  

I won't claim infallibility here, for I may have forgot someone who served as a closer due to demotion or injury-though I think I got most of them. Also, these are saves as opposed to save opportunities, but we already know that a good closer on a good team is the best option, and bad closers on bad teams are worth little. Hence, bad closers who blew saves on good teams will benefit from excluding their blown saves.

The correlation between team wins and saves is .554 (r=.554, r squared = .307), which is essentially a crap shoot. Also, the standard deviation of saves is only five and a half. Reyes, who was not a good closer, only had 11 less saves than Papelbon, who pitched for the best team in the league.

All this points to a draft strategy that doesn't weigh "team strength" heavily when choosing a closer. The average saves for closers last year (this time omitted the outlier) was 35. Only Rivera and Wagner, plus the Braves trio, failed to pass this among teams with winning records. Among teams with losing records, Nathan, Cordero, and Jenks surpassed the mark. So, it looks as if having a winning record does influence a sort of barrier around the average, though variation is rather low. In my Yahoo! league last year, 5.5 saves would have meant a maximum of 1 point gain in the league (and at what expense with guys like Jones and Borowski?). For those curious, the deviation in the league was 32...

Next week, look for an analysis of projected winning teams this year, and closers to target after your draft.

Detroit Tigers

Team Analyses

Detroit made one of the big splashes this off-season, picking up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida. The trade was odd in that the Detroit offense was already outstanding, but they moved to strengthen it anyway instead of pushing for the available stud pitchers. They may be able to win a lot of games 10-8 with a lineup that averages over 4 All-Star appearances per batter.

Lineup:

• CF Curtis Granderson
• 2B Placido Polanco
• 3B Miguel Cabrera
• RF Magglio Ordonez
• DH Gary Sheffield
• 1B Carlos Guillen
• SS Edgar Renteria
• LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
• C Ivan Rodriguez

Rotation:

• Justin Verlander
• Kenny Rogers
• Jeremy Bonderman
• Dontrelle Willis
• Nate Robertson

Closer: Todd Jones

Thoughts...

The first seven hitters are all worth owning. Granderson stole 26 bags last year, while attempting only 27-I think the steals are for real but some experts worry that the lineup won't run due to the presence of Cabrera. Needless to say, I disagree, and Granderson will outperform his draft position even as high as the mid-third round. Polanco is the most overrated of the bunch - he won't contribute power or steals. He will score plenty of runs at the top of this lineup but it's unlikely he'll hit .341 in 2008. Ordonez is also overrated slightly in my opinion. .300/25/100/100 are appropriate expectations, rather than a batting title with 120/140. Still, I like all seven players throughout the draft.

I cannot wait for this team to get a real closer, but it's almost certainly going to take another year. Joel Zumaya, the "closer-in-waiting," is out until June or later, and probably won't be effective enough to close this year. Jones will have to hold down the fort for one more season, and though I don't think he'll have great peripherals, he's worth owning because he closes for one of the top teams in the game.

A couple of positional notes: Enjoy Carlos Guillen's last year of shortstop eligibility. All signs indicate he will play first base for the entire year (barring an injury to Renteria, I suppose), which means that he won't be eligible at shortstop in 2009. Also, Brandon Inge has done some work at catcher. If he can get some games behind the plate, then some regular at-bats at DH because of a Sheffield injury, he may give you some good production from a position with no depth.

Scheduling quirk: The Tigers play all of their games against the Red Sox and Yankees by May 11, and six of nine against the Angels by May 29. Their fade last year will not repeat itself. They end the year with a bunch of games against the Royals, Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, and Rays, meaning that Tigers are worth targeting when you're trying to strengthen your team in mid-season.

I really can't say enough good things about this team, from both a fantasy perspective and a baseball perspective. I like them to win a lot of games with that big offense, and Verlander is a big game pitcher who can win them some games in the playoffs. If Willis can return to form and Jones can somehow keep it together, they'll be a team to reckon with this October.

Kansas City Royals

Previous Team Analyses

Kansas City has been making strides over the past few years, with the owner showing a willingness to pour some money into his struggling franchise. My concern for the team is that they can't compete with the Tigers or the Indians for at least two years, and after that I expect the Twins rebuilding operations to have paid off. However, once the effects of the ridiculous White Sox spending fades, these guys shouldn't dwell at the bottom of their division.

Lineup

• David DeJesus
• Mark Grudzielanek
• Mark Teahen
• Jose Guillen
• Billy Butler
• Ross Gload
• Alex Gordon
• John Buck
• Tony Pena Jr.

Rotation

• Gil Meche
• Brian Bannister
• Zack Greinke
• Jorge De La Rosa
• Kyle Davies

Closer: Joakim Soria

Thoughts...

As always, it is worth mentioning that this is FoxSports projected lineup, and I think that it will change dramatically for the Royals. Joey Gathright is proving his worth during Spring Training, having already stolen seven bases. Alex Gordon will work his way into the middle of the order, creating a possible 1-5 of Gathright, DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, and Gordon, which is a formidable opening five.

I'm a big fan of Gordon and Butler, as both carry a solid upside even in shallow leagues. Despite opening off last season with more disappointment than a 2007 Royals 3B sleeper had hype--yes, same person--the rookie still approached 20-20. He won't have the runs, average, or RBI totals that Wright will, but if he bats .280 and approaches 100 RBI with 25 HR, 25 SB stats, he will be a steal. Wright is going with the third pick, Gordon with the 135th. Yahoo! has Butler grossly misranked, and in a low to middle competitive league he will be there late. He should be owned in all leagues, since he serves as a reliable bench player due to OF/1B eligibility.

The pitching isn't anything to brag about, but you could do worse than Bannister and Greinke. I'd take both ahead of Meche, whose surprising season last year has less chance of repeating than either youngster has of breaking out.

Soria is a good guy to fill your bullpen with. He had great peripherals last year, and still was tagged as "inconsistent". As a former Rule 5 selection, he should improve heading into his sophomore season. Throw out May last year, and the rookie had only one month with a BAA above .208. He's falling in drafts because he's closing for a bad team, but with a Post-All Star WHIP of .80 and BAA of .183, he's very underrated.

Team Need vs. Best Available Player

It's your turn, end of the fourth round, and for some reason Brian Roberts is on the board. You glance at your cheat sheet, and realize you've projected the future Cubs'--okay I'm not going to let that one go--second basemen to bat just under .300 and steal 50 bases-in other words, he's a steal this late in the draft (no pun intended, I did say "in other words" but I lied...).

However, you look at your team, and you already have Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, and Russell Martin. Okay, okay, let's not even deal with such extremes. Instead, let's say you have Reyes: What should you do?

This is a classic example of team need vs. best available player, and I've heard many opinions of what constitutes a sound strategy. What I'd like to examine is many of the factors that you should weigh in your choice:

• Liquidity - This is an economics phrase that describes capital, which is a good way of looking at each of your selections. The most common argument for taking the best available player is that he has more value, but value is only "valuable" if you can move the player. In this situation, Roberts would gain value if you could trade him for a pick that went earlier; however, it is crucial to note that every pick before yours passed on the second basemen. At some point in the season, Roberts should yield plus value, but it will likely be long after the draft is fresh in your opponents' minds.
• Scarcity - I've heard so much about how speed should be drafted early because power can be found late in the draft. This is true to the extent that low average sluggers will likely stick around, but even those sluggers won't provide much more than 25 HRs (Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Jason Giambi). I'd rather draft power early and grab guys like Justin Upton, Willy Taveras, and Michael Bourne with those later picks. So, in the Team Need vs. B.A.P. dilemma, I'd bias my choice in favor of taking a high average slugger before a high average base stealer.
• Opportunity Cost - In economics, opportunity cost is derived from limited resources. In fantasy baseball, that resource is roster spots. Should a team with David Wright take Aramis Ramirez if his league mates fail to draft him before the team's fourth pick? In this case, I'd say yes, as the value (derived from scarcity and liquidity) outweighs even the steepest opportunity cost of a utility spot. With at least three outfield spots, the opportunity cost of an OF spot is less than any other offensive position.
• Marginality -  How much better is the player? A full round of ADP, or even the better part of one, should make the decision tough. If it is a few picks, you are trusting your cheat sheet too much - ADP is just that, an average. Because after the draft, the ADP become the DP, and this is what most owner's will correspond value to.

So there are the main principles in taking the better player even when your team would benefit from someone else. But remember, it is the best team that wins leagues, not the best bench. Compromising flexibility can diminish the utility of the free agency for your team, while leaving gaping holes in your roster sends a clear signal to other owners that they don't have to offer a fair deal to you. I don't want this to be an exhaustive list, because I hope to hear some takes from everyone else out there. 

Washington Nationals

Previous Team Analyses

The Nationals enter a new ballpark and a new season with new hope. They were an okay team last year, and they've made some roster adjustments, but haven't done enough to get beyond the title of "okay." Here's the roster manager Manny Acta will take into Nationals Park in 2008.

Lineup:

• SS Christian Guzman
• CF Lastings Milledge
• 3B Ryan Zimmerman
• 1B Dimitri Young/Nick Johnson
• RF Austin Kearns
• LF Wily Mo Pena
• 2B Ronnie Belliard
• C Paul Lo Duca

Rotation:

• Shawn Hill
• John Patterson
• Jason Bergmann
• John Lannan
• Matt Chico

Closer: Chad Cordero

Thoughts...

I'll begin this analysis the way I always do: Chad Cordero is a good but not great closer, will probably get traded at midseason and end up in middle relief for a contender, but is worthy of drafting as your number two closer. Handcuff him with Jon Rauch, especially because Cordero's walk rate has been increasing over the past three seasons. 

Lastings Milledge was the Nats' big acquisition this offseason, and it's a mystery how he fell out of favor so quickly in New York. I'd imagine he would look good in the New York outfield while Moises Alou recovers from injury, but he's in Washington nonetheless. Still, if he can get his personal act together, he is the kind of guy who can captivate fans and go 15/15. He won't carry your outfield but has plenty of upside. Don't write him off the way New York did.

The rest of the Washington outfield provides some power potential at the end of the draft. Austin Kearns has never lived up to the billing since coming from Cincinnati, but maybe leaving RFK will help him bump up to a 20 HR season. Wily Mo Pena, another former Red, took a longer path to Washington, but finally has a starting job. We'll see if he can put it all together this year in our nation's capital - I have been grabbing him in 5-OF leagues.

John Patterson had an excellent 2005 season before being bit by the injury bug. All reports indicate he will be healthy this year, and he can be had for nothing in most fantasy leagues. Facing the Mets and Phillies isn't a recipe for stardom, but the 3.13 ERA and 185 strikeouts from 2005 indicate that he knows how to pitch. In deeper leagues, don't forget about him.

Ryan Zimmerman is the one member of this team worth owning. He's only 23 years old and still learning how to play at the major league level, but he already can be counted on for 20 HR and 90 runs and RBI as a floor. He may not steal many bases while hitting third, but Zimmerman can be counted on for four category production. If you miss the third basemen in the early rounds, Zimmerman could give you great value later on.

Zimmerman and Cordero are worth drafting in just about every format, but take the rest of the roster at your own peril. There's some potential, though it's hard to say whether Nationals Park will be better for hitters or fielders, which makes it that much more difficult to determine which sleepers will pan out. They ought to be "okay" again this year, but there's not a lot of fantasy potential for even "okay" from these guys.

Florida Marlins

Previous Team Analyses

The Florida franchise lost two of its brightest stars this off-season, with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis departing for Detroit and bringing a slew of prospects in return. Fortunately, this team has been through this situation many times in its short history, losing names from Gary Sheffield to Josh Beckett from the two Championship rosters. Here's the latest edition of their lineup (look for a few of these guys to end up on the trading block in the next few years).

Lineup:

• SS Hanley Ramirez
• RF Jeremy Hermidia
• 2B Dan Uggla
• LF Josh Willingham
• 3B Dallas McPherson/Jorge Cantu/Jose Castillo
• 1B Mike Jacobs
• CF Cameron Maybin
• C Matt Treanor

Rotation: 

• Scott Olsen
• Sergio Mitre
• Andrew Miller
• Rick Vanden Hurk
• Mark Hendrickson

Closer: Kevin Gregg

Thoughts...

When examining bad teams, I always start with the closers. Closer is the easiest position for a player on a bad team to have fantasy relevance, but of course, that isn't the case here. Gregg and his $2.5 million salary will probably be traded at some point this season, and it's unlikely he'll close for another team. Even while in Florida, he won't be among the elite closers, and I won't be drafting him early on draft day.

Hanley Ramirez is simply outstanding. There's been talk of him hitting third (with Cameron Maybin taking over the leadoff spot), which would be bad news for his owners, but he'll be a five category producer regardless. If he falls in the order, he likely won't steal bases at the same rate, and potentially could hit for a lower average (he only hit .297 in 165 ABs there last season). Ramirez offers better potential for five-category production than his counterpart Jose Reyes, but probably carries a higher risk of falling on his face without Cabrera around.

Speaking of Cabrera, let's discuss his replacements at third. ... Okay, that about covers it. None of the three potential replacements (Castillo, Cantu, or McPherson) will likely lock down the job, and none of them have the potential to produce like their predecessor. 

Cameron Maybin is an interesting prospect, and I expect he'll enter fantasy conversations in 2009. He has only 49 big league at-bats, so this season will likely be one that takes him up and down. Nevertheless, Maybin was an important part of the Cabrera trade for a reason, and he'll probably push Ramirez down in the order in the not-too-distant future. Andrew Miller, another important piece of the trade, will get the chance to join their rotation this year. My guess is the Phillies and Mets will knock him around, but he's too talented to struggle all season. You don't need to draft him, but keep his name on your radar in keeper and dynasty leagues. He'll be the ace of this staff soon.

Remember when Josh Willingham had catcher eligibility? Those were the days... Now that he's just an outfielder, he has little to no fantasy value. Dan Uggla's average plummeted to .245 last season. It's nice to get 30 HR from second base, but that average is awful. Aaron Hill later in the draft might look better in your lineup.

If we turn back the clock two seasons, Jeremy Hermida would be a popular pick late in drafts. Two seasons of injury and mediocre production have destroyed the hype surrounding him, meaning that he generally goes undrafted. After .300, 12 HR and 41 RBI in the second half last year, though, he may be worth watching in deeper leagues in 2008.

Overall, this Florida team isn't too exciting. In a couple of years, they'll have more fantasy stars (who will promptly be traded), but they're at the point in their cycle where they've just acquired prospects and are waiting for them to mature. Unless you're in keeper or dynasty leagues, I wouldn't look at this team beyond Hanley in the first round.

Philadelphia Phillies

Previous Team Analyses

Did you realize the Phillies have the past two National League MVPs? If they can best the Mets and win another division title, they could easily make it three in a row - stranger yet, they could make it three different infielders in a row [Chase Utley could certainly challenge Rollins and Howard for the title of Most Valuable Phillie]. If their pitching can keep up with their hitting, it could easily be three MVPs in a row.

Lineup:

• SS Jimmy Rollins
• CF Shane Victorino
• 2B Chase Utley
• 1B Ryan Howard
• LF Pat Burrell
• RF Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth
• 3B Pedro Feliz
• C Carlos Ruiz

Rotation:

• Cole Hamels
• Brett Myers
• Kyle Kendrick
• Jamie Moyer
• Adam Eaton

Closer: Brad Lidge/Tom "Flash" Gordon

Thoughts...

This team has three fantasy superstars, and a couple more than aren't far from it. Chase Utley is far and away the best second baseman - although Brandon Phillips and BJ Upton often go one round later, the gap between those two and Utley is much greater. Jimmy Rollins is the team's emotional sparkplug; unfortunately, this is not a measurable stat for fantasy. His statistics keep up, though, and put him in the first round. Ryan Howard might be the best pure power hitter in the game - I would take him ahead of Fielder. 

The guys that aren't far behind: Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels. I've seen Victorino called Carl Crawford Lite, but I'd take him eight rounds later. He'll have higher power numbers, and with a healthy Utley and Howard behind him, his run totals ought to rise. He could easily mature into a stud this year and I love him in middle rounds. Hamels is a fantasy ace, but he's a tier down from the top guys. Another season or two of age and experience could put him above 200 strikeouts, but the ERA probably won't get below 3.00 because Citizen's Bank Ballpark is a modern Coors Field. 

Pedro Feliz was a nice pickup to round out the Philadelphia infield. He won't be the stud his counterparts are, but he can absolutely be counted upon for a minimum of 20 home runs and 80 RBI. In the new ballpark and improved lineup, his power numbers could easily improve to 30 homeruns. The RBI may not jump to 100 unless he hits higher in the order, but it's a reasonable ceiling. The only question with Feliz is his average - it hasn't yet reached the Adam Dunn plateau. He's not being drafted, so keep your eye on him and see if he can put it all together. If so, he'll be a nice option at third base for those who miss out on A-Rod, Wright, and Cabrera.

I'm hoping that Philadelphia won't abuse Brett Myers the way they did last year. Brad Lidge's presence should ensure that Myers remains in the rotation (although he will start the season on the DL, Flash Gordon should hold down the job until Lidge is healthy). In '05 he struck out 208, following with 189 more in '06 before his shuffles to and from the bullpen last year. I look for him to return to those strikeout numbers and win 15 or more as a top pitcher with this lineup behind him.

The rest of the rotation looks awful. Kyle Kendrick has been getting hit hard throughout spring training, Jamie Moyer is ancient, and Adam Eaton may not break camp with the team. Kris Benson also looms as a possibility for one of these spots. None of them are worth owning at this point, and I doubt this will change anytime this year.

Philadelphia has the studs worth owning and little else. It's tough to draft Lidge to be a top closer knowing he's recovering from injury, and it's impossible to draft these starters in a pitcher's park. Philly's success this year, and your fantasy team's, will be thanks to Utley, Rollins, and Howard, or probably won't be achieved at all. 

Atlanta Braves

Previous Team Analyses

For 15 years, the Atlanta Braves have been the model of consistency and success, winning the National League East year in and year out on the strength of a quality pitching staff. Tom Glavine rejoins John Smoltz in 2008, reuniting 2/3 of the core of the division-winning team. The rest of the team blends youth and experience - we'll see if that's a recipe for success in 2008.

Lineup:

• SS Yunel Escobar
• 2B Kelly Johnson
• 3B Chipper Jones
• 1B Mark Teixeira
• RF Jeff Francoeur
• C Brian McCann
• CF Mark Kotsay
• LF Matt Diaz

Rotation:

• John Smoltz
• Tim Hudson
• Tom Glavine
• Chuck James
• JoJo Reyes

Closer: Rafael Soriano

Thoughts...

I'll start the same way John Halpin does at FoxSports: Yunel Escobar has an unbelievable .367 batting average on balls in play. This high number indicates that some of his success last year was based on luck; I'm a big believer in regression to the mean, meaning that I expect his BABIP to drop significantly, and his average to do so by extension. 

2003 was the last time Chipper Jones played 150 games in a season, and that's a terrible shame for fantasy owners. Last year, he put up numbers close to his '03 numbers in 130 games. If he gets 130 games in again this season, he will be an outstanding third baseman - a step down from the top tier because he no longer steals bases, but an outstanding four category producer nonetheless. 

Jeff Francoeur is an underrated middle round outfielder. He's young enough to grow and build on his .293, 19/105 numbers from last year. .300 and 30/100/100 is very possible in a lineup with Mark Teixeira for a full season. Kelly Johnson is another young player with an opportunity to grow. Johnson may spend time in the leadoff spot this year, which would be good for his run production (although less than ideal for his RBI numbers). He can be had late in a draft, and looks good in the second base spot on many fantasy teams.

Smoltz and Glavine may have been equals a generation ago, but now one is a clear fantasy performer and the other is heading to oblivion. Since 1989, John Smoltz's ERA has only been above four in one season: in the strike-shortened 1994 year, he was at 4.14 when the season was ended early. His WHIP has never been above 1.30. He's pitched a full season every year and his numbers have been disgusting. Smoltz might never slow down and looks great as a number two starter heading into 2008. Glavine, on the other hand, has been fading and never was a strikeout pitcher. I'm avoiding him this season.

Parting shots: Tim Hudson has not been the ace in Atlanta, as he was in Oakland. However, he still fills out a rotation well heading into 2008. Count on him for 200 solid innings. I've already addressed Mark Teixeira in Walk Years, and I love him to step up into the elite this year. Brian McCann will not provide the across-the-board numbers of Russell Martin, but with his nagging pinky injury healed he ought to have a better offensive year than he did in 2007. He also got laser corrective surgery for his eyes - he wouldn't be the first player to improve after correcting a vision problem. Finally, keep your eye on Mike Gonzalez as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2009, but he will challenge Soriano for the closer's job at some point.

Atlanta can't turn back time until the late 1990s, much as it would like to. However, with a mixture of youth and experience, they may soon be able to recreate their old success. There's plenty of fantasy talent here, and most of it is available to bargain shoppers in middle and later rounds.

New York Mets

Previous Team Analyses

The New York Mets began 2008 with a bang, acquiring the best player on the market to fulfill their need for a true ace. They're primed to dominate the NL East again, with studs Jose Reyes and David Wright anchoring the lineup. They gave up most of their prospects to get Santana, meaning that it's now or never. This team is good enough to make it now.

Lineup:

• SS Jose Reyes
• 2B Luis Castillo
• 3B David Wright
  
• CF Carlos Beltran
• 1B Carlos Delgado
• LF Moises Alou
• RF Ryan Church
• C Brian Schneider

Rotation:

• Johan Santana
• Pedro Martinez
• John Maine
• Oliver Perez
• Orlando Hernandez

Closer: Billy Wagner

Thoughts...

Alou probably will not see the field before May after being injured with a sports hernia. In his absence, look for primary backup Endy Chavez to pick up at-bats. Chavez, however, is a defensive specialist without much fantasy relevance. If Angel Pagan wins the job, or if the Mets somehow pull off a deal for Xavier Nady, then LF for the Mets will become relevant again. Until that happens, though, consider left field a hole in this lineup.

I discussed Santana here last week, but to summarize: Now that he gets to face pitchers, look for his strikeout totals to jump up. I think he can push 300 at season's end, and with the run support he's guaranteed to get, 20 wins are a lock. He's an absolute stud.

Speaking of studs... Reyes and Wright are both outstanding. I consider the two interchangeable in picks 2, 3, and 4 depending on who is available and what type of team you like to build. I've drafted with Reyes from number two, which allowed me to choose more power hitters knowing I had an early advantage in steals and runs. I also enjoy drafting with Wright, though, because I like having third base filled early, and I can usually pair him with Teixeira and one of Carlos Lee/Lance Berkman/Vlad Guerrero, which fills out all of my big positions in the first three rounds. It's easy to go sleeper hunting later knowing I have these positions filled. 

I'm not as big on Beltran as some others. I can't say exactly why - he's a five category producer in a big-time lineup, but I guess it's the low average. Nonetheless, if he's available in the middle of the second round, he'll definitely be a productive part of your lineup.

John Maine burned out last year after a fantastic four months. He only pitched 90 big league innings in 2006, though, so the fact that this was his first full year could account for some of his struggles. Maine pitched a beautiful game that appeared to bring the Mets out of their slide at the end of last year - I love him in big games. Of course, this doesn't translate into fantasy production, but to me, it indicates that he can pitch and I would honestly like him on my fantasy team. He'll certainly provide wins, but I expect he will contribute across the board for a full season in 2008.

Other players: I like Billy Wagner, especially if you miss out on K-Rod and Nathan. He'll have the saves and the stats to anchor a fantasy bullpen. I don't particularly like Carlos Delgado to have a bounce-back season at 35. I wish the Mets would have a bigger name first baseman, but it looks like they're committed to Carlos in the middle of their lineup. Pedro will be okay but probably suffer one DL stint this year; he can still pitch but is no longer the overpowering ace he was in the 90s. 

The Mets are loaded for 2008 and beyond, and Reyes, Wright, and Santana will all be first round fantasy picks for years to come. The rest of the lineup can fill out fantasy rosters; never underestimate the importance of being on a winning team when you're taking a guy to round out your team. Sorry Jimmy Rollins, but the Mets are the team to beat in the NL East in 2008.

The Walk Years: Studs

My personal favorite sign that a player is primed for a breakout season is the length of his contract. Players in the final year of their deals, or those who can opt out at the end of the season, consistently outperform their career averages and season projections, as well as their peers. There are notable exceptions - Andruw Jones struggled mightily last season despite pending free agency, for example - but for the most part, it's a great indicator (A-Rod was in a walk year last year, and look what happened!). Here are five fantasy studs in walk years.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Fantasy baseball experts across the board love Big Tex, and keep waiting for him to vault himself into the truly elite at first base. Is this the year? I certainly think so. He's in the middle of a good lineup (Chipper Jones bats ahead of him, while Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann provide protection behind) and playing his first full season in Atlanta. Teixeira is 28 years old, about to enter his prime and ready to sign that long-term deal at season's end. He'll give you good four-category production in any season, but I think the Fangraphs projections of .291/34/108/105 are awfully conservative. I don't think it's a stretch for him to get the average above .300 and have 40 HR by season's end, and if I'm at the beginning of the draft, I'm absolutely looking to pick him up toward the end of Round 2.

Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Tampa Bay is down there with Pittsburgh and Kansas City in cities of baseball purgatory, and Carl Crawford definitely wants out. Fangraphs projects him to hit over .300 with 45 steals, but I say in a walk year he does one better. At 26 years old, Crawford is in his baseball prime, and still looking to mature and hit for a little more power. The unfortunate thing for Crawford is that he hits in a mediocre lineup and has nobody in front of him to consistently drive in. Nonetheless, with Pena and Upton behind him, he'll get plenty of chances to circle the bases. Also, players in walk years on bad teams often get traded - if Tampa is struggling, they may look to move Crawford for prospects, knowing he will leave for nothing at season's end. Someone with his speed and talent could top many lineups and be extremely productive. I look for Crawford, in his walk year, to step up big time and ensure that he gets out of Tampa Bay as quickly as possible.

CC Sabathia, SP, Cleveland Indians: C.C. has been watching starting pitchers sign big contracts over the past two years and is definitely ready to cash in. He can and will use the Johan Santana deal with the New York Mets as a benchmark for his , and has every right to do so. He has maintained an ERA around 3.20 the past two seasons, in a very difficult division, and I look for him to maintain that or possibly improve it this season (despite consistent projections to the contrary). Another 200 strikeout season is also possible for the big horse. He'd love to stay in Cleveland but he closed negotiations and can't be happy that his deal isn't done. The biggest risk with CC is that he threw 241 innings last season; however, Cleveland is keeping his work between starts down to compensate. I don't consider the big fella a huge injury risk as far as pitchers go, and would definitely love to have him anchoring my staff in 2008.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Los Angeles Angels: K-Rod has been an integral part of the Anaheim bullpen since their magical World Series run in 2002, when he was the primary set-up man in the playoffs despite a total of five big league innings on his resume. At age 26, he is ready to be paid with the long-term deal he feels he deserves. Additionally, Rodriguez is pitching with a major chip on his shoulder because of the way he struggled at the end of last season (his ERA and WHIP after the All-Star Break: 3.45 and 1.33). These numbers all combine to indicate a man on a mission, and a man I'd love to have on my fantasy team. Conservative projections have his strikeout totals in the 80s, but I see 100 as a very reachable ceiling. Add that to 40-45 saves and you've got a fantastic closer for any fantasy team.

Joe Nathan, RP, Minnesota Twins: Lost amongst the chaos in Minnesota with the departures of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana was Joe Nathan, the elite closer who will be a free agent at the end of the 2008 season. Nathan was one of Minnesota's prospects acquired the last time they were exiling veterans (Nathan was traded from San Francisco in the AJ Pierzynski deal, along with Francisco Liriano - think about that one for a few minutes). In four seasons closing games in Minnesota, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.02 (last year) and in three of the four, his ERA has been under 2.00. Conservative projections put his WHIP where it was last season - just above 1.00 - but I say in a contract season he ends up closer to his 2006 mark of 0.79. Nathan doesn't blow many chances; he's a quality pitcher. His team isn't going to be winning a lot of blowouts, meaning he'll have plenty of save opportunities. It's possible he'll be moved in mid-season, but regardless, he will be one of fantasy's top closers again in 2008. 

These are my five favorite studs to break out, but studs aren't the only players whose statistics improve in contract years. Check back in the future for profiles of mid-round players and sleepers in walk years. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. Keep in mind that although players such as John Smoltz and Greg Maddux are on one-year deals, they don't fall into the category of "walk-year" players looking to cash in on a productive season with a long-term contract. Watch this list carefully, because it contains the Torii Hunters and A-Rods of 2008, guys who will exceed projections and carry your team to fantasy championships.

The Fallen

For the past week or so, I've been running a poll about which early round selection is undervalued. As of tonight, Pujols and Soriano are tied, with Santana and Utley coming in second and Howard a good deal behind. Before revealing my selection, I'd like to consider what I believe are strong arguments for or against a certain player.

Chase Utley (ADP 8) - Utley is best second basemen available; some consider him miles and above guys like B.J. Upton and Brandon Phillips. Despite a shortened season, Utley put up top tier numbers last year in Philadelphia. If you haven't noticed, that entailed a stacked offense and an attractive hitters park going into 2008.

• For: Utley is going after guys like Miguel Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holliday. In a twelve team league, fifth pick will see plenty of outfielders with their second pick, and Aramis Ramirez will be available in the third or Atkins in the fourth. Smaller leagues probably undervalue the perennial All-Star, since filling in spots later is easy.
  
• Against: Even in deep leagues, Brandon Phillips or B.J. Upton should be there for your second pick. If you take Holliday, you could have Holliday + Phillips, rather than Utley + Beltran/Lee/Guerrero. In my opinion, the former is a better duo. Miguel on the other hand, should be going after Utley. Rollins and Utley is a toss up as far as I'm concerned.

Albert Pujols (ADP 9) - We all know that not taking Pujols could burn us, but most of us know that taking him could be worse. The damage to the first basemen's elbow will require surgery at some point, and Pujols explained that he will not play through pain this year. The issue rests on whether or not the Cardinals are contenders or chicken tenders.

• For: He is projected by several reputable statistic sites as the best player going into 2008. Even his line last year (99 runs, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .327 AVG) would warrant a first round selection, and it was considered a bust. In shallow leagues with plenty of decent FA, injuries aren't too costly, and decent fill-ins should emerge mid-season. Just hope on at least 75% of the season.
• Against: First picks must not entail high risk. Passing on Pujols when the decision is tough usually delivers guys like Howard and Fielder. In my opinion, its better to grab any of the guys above him and hope for him, Howard, or Fielder to come back around.

Ryan Howard (ADP 10) - Nothing big here, I agree with you guys. While I think Cabrera is generally overrated and therefore Howard should go before him, I can't warrant the slugger to move ahead of fellow one bagger Pujols or middle infielders Rollins or Utley.

Johan Santana (ADP 12) - Santana, inarguably the best pitcher over the past three years, slowed down a bit compared to his peers last season. Not to worry, as the guy still earned a ridiculous contract and moved to the less formidable NL.

• For: Many of you have pointed this out, but pitchers are underrated in most Roto leagues. Santana is the best of them, and I think he's worth considering as early as the fifth pick. Pete wrote a great article concerning his upside, so I recommend it.
• Against: Chris Carpenter last year. Pitchers carry an injury risk more than position players, so a first round selection of a hurler is unwarranted. Still, Santana has proven his health year in and year out. Taking the new Mets ace gives a lot of flexibility regarding taking your number two and three, as any fantasy staff headed by the Cy Young favorite will be one of the best in the league.

Alfonso Soriano (ADP 15) - Soriano was the consensus second pick last year, but now he's fallen at least a round. His line, like Pujols, was still great and can be considered the basement of this season. If he figures out to hit at Wrigley, he will be great.

• For: For the first time in years, OF seems shallow. Soriano, next to Holliday, reigns over the position. Right now, 3 SS, 3 1B, and 4 3B precede his selection, and this doesn't seem right considering position depth.
• Against: Soriano is hurt, bats in an unproductive leadoff spot, and isn't stealing 40 bases again. However, his quad is fully healed and a non-dislocated hairline fracture of his middle finger is unlikely to heal by the season's start. He went 2-4 today in Spring Training, with no complaints of injuries.

Considering the arguments, I have to give the nod to either Santana or Soriano. I think Santana should be going around pick 6-7 (curiously where he went last year, while still in the AL), which represents a movement of 6 picks. Soriano, on the other hand, should complement of first basemen with the 9th or 10th pick, which is a movement of 6 picks. In a shallow league, all of these guys are underrated since "risk" is overrated.

As a Cubs fan, I give the nod to Soriano. "Hunch prediction" of 40+ HRs and 100 RBIs from the fifth spot in the lineup. 

Ask the Experts: Oakland Athletics

Our friends over at RotoProfessor interviewed Athletics beat writer Joe Stiglich. He really gave some great, in depth answers, so let’s get right back to business and see what he had to say.

• Question 1: How do you see the A’s setting up the first five spots in their batting order?
  
• Joe Stiglich: Well, the order for Thursday’s exhibition opener provided a glimpse into manager Bob Geren’s thinking, though he cautioned not to read too much into things this early. If I had to predict now, I would say 1. Travis Buck, 2. Mark Ellis, 3. Daric Barton, 4. Jack Cust, 5. Eric Chavez … The A’s are big on the potential of Buck and Barton, which is why I think they’ll occupy two of the most important spots in the order. Buck is a smart hitter and has pretty decent speed on the bases. Geren is putting a lot of stock into Barton’s September performance, and Barton batted third in the exhibition opener. If Chavez is healthy to start the season, he could fit in at No. 3 also. Ellis has bounced all over the order in recent seasons, but I think he fits into the second spot to break up the glut of lefties. 
  

Question 2: How do you see Rich Harden performing this season if he can stay healthy? Do you see Joe Blanton or Harden being the ace of the staff?
Joe Stiglich: Pondering Harden’s health is always so dicey because of his injury history. Based on how good he’s looked when healthy, I’d say he’d put up really impressive numbers. With his stuff, he’d surely rack up a lot of strikeouts. Can he be a 200-inning guy? It’s just really tough to imagine because of his history. You have to consider Joe Blanton the ace. He’s remained healthy and become such a workhorse for them, and he’s getting the ball in the opener against Boston in Japan. He was a solid No. 2 guy before Haren was traded.

• Question 3: How do you think Daric Barton & Kurt Suzuki will adjust to a full season at the major league level? Are there any other young players you see contributing in ‘08?
  
• Joe Stiglich: It will be interesting to see how these two progress over the full season. From watching the early stages of camp, I can tell you Suzuki already seems more vocal and take-charge with the pitching staff. It seems natural his handling of the pitchers and his pitch-calling would improve simply because he’s so much more familiar with the staff now. His ability to call the game, block pitches and control the opponents’ running game will be much more important than the offense he contributes, but he showed some decent hitting ability last season. As I said above, the A’s are putting a lot of stock in Barton’s abbreviated performance last year. And he was very impressive. But that’s such a small sample size to go off of, there’s still some mystery to him right now. How will he handle his first prolonged slump? How will he adjust when pitchers get familar with him? I’ll say this: The kid flat-out looks like a confident hitter when he digs in at the plate, if that counts for anything. As for other youngsters? We’ll see a lot of them, because the A’s make no secret they’re playing for the future. Either Ryan Sweeney or Carlos Gonzalez figures to grab an outfield spot coming out of the spring. Gonzalez has looked terrific at the plate early on. Gio Gonzalez, a left-handed starter, figures to begin at Triple-A but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s called up this season. Joey Devine, a reliever obtained from Atlanta in the Mark Kotsay trade, has a strong chance to land in the bullpen. 
  

Question 4: Both Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez have struggled with injuries in recent seasons. How do you see them performing this year?
Joe Stiglich: As with Harden, it’s so tough making predictions with these guys. Getting 18-20 homers from Crosby and 25-30 from Chavez would do wonders for this offense, which struggled for much of last season. Crosby is fully recovered from a broken hand that ended his ‘07 season in mid-July. Up until that injury, he had struggled both offensively and defensively. But he didn’t get a full spring training in last season because of a previous back injury, and that affected him as the regular season unfolded. He worked all offseason with some adjustments to his swing, so if he’s hit on something there, I could see him approaching that 18-20 homer total. Chavez, because of his three surgeries over the winter, is still a big question mark. He has yet to play in any exhibition games, and he may not be ready to start the regular season. Who knows? Like I said, 25-30 homers is needed for this offense, but that might be a reach.

• Question 5: If Huston Street is traded, who do you think will replace him as closer?
  
• Joe Stiglich: The smart money says lefty Alan Embree, because he did a pretty decent job as a short-term closer when Street and Justin Duchscherer were both hurt last season. Embree is the team’s oldest player, but he can still bring his fastball in the 93-95 mph range and he’s pretty crafty. Joey Devine is a wild card here, because the scouting reports say he has closer-type stuff. It’s just not a given that he’d be ready to assume that role this year. His walk totals are very high in the short time he’s served in the majors.
  

Ask the Experts: Seattle Mariners

Our friends over at RotoProfessor had the opportunity to grill John Hickey, the Mariners beat writer for the Seattle Post Intelligence (see his coverage by clicking here). He gives an interesting look into the upcoming season, so let’s get down to what he had to say.

Question 1: How do you see Erik Bedard performing in his first year in Seattle?
John Hickey: He’s already had good success in the American League, and it should be more of the same. The Mariners have half of a great infield defense (the left half) and a decent offense, both of which should help make him a winner.

• Question 2: Which player do you see having the better offensive season, Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre or Richie Sexson and why?
  
• John Hickey: I’m looking for Ibanez to have the best offensive season of the three because he’s left-handed in a left-handed hitter’s park and because he’s in the last year of his contract. That being said, much more has to be forthcoming from Sexson after the worst year of his career.

Question 3: How do you think the presence of Erik Bedard will affect the performance of Felix Hernandez?
John Hickey: I don’t know that it will have a huge impact, because he’s already a pretty good pitcher. What it will do is give the Mariners a chance to dominate a series when both are scheduled to go against the same opponent.

• Question 4: What are the chances Wladimir Balentien breaks camp with the Mariners? Do you think he could make an impact before season’s end?
  
• John Hickey: I would be surprised if he broke camp with the Mariners, although not shocked. With Mike Morse, who is out of options, on the roster and having already hit fairly well in limited opportunities, he’d get the first shot. But I would expect that Balentien would be among the first callups.
  

Question 5: What role do you see Brandon Morrow filling this season? Do you see him ever getting a chance to start, as was rumored earlier this off-season?
John Hickey: Morrow starts the season as the eighth-inning right-handed reliever, setting up J.J. Putz. That assumes that all the starting pitchers remain healthy. If not, Morrow would be given the chance to start.

Seattle Mariners

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA OAK TEX

2007 marked a season of disappointment for fantasy owners regarding the Seattle Mariners. The Felix Hernandez bandwagon never really got going, as he was good but far from great. Richie Sexson was awful. Raul Ibanez took a step back. Baseball-wise, they did win 88 games, and fantasy-wise, things weren't really as bad as they seemed. Now, with the addition of Erik Bedard, the Mariners look like a team poised for success. Imagine trying to take 2 out of 3 against a team trotting out Bedard and King Felix on back-to-back nights! Here's the team that will be supporting the big duo:

Lineup:

• RF Ichiro Suzuki
• DH Jose Vidro
• 3B Adrian Beltre
• LF Raul Ibanez
• 1B Richie Sexson
• C Kenji Johjima
• RF Brad Wilkerson
• SS Yuniesky Betancourt
• 2B Jose Lopez

Rotation: 

• Erik Bedard
• Felix Hernandez
• Jarrod Washburn
• Carlos Silva
• Miguel Batista

Closer: J.J. Putz

Thoughts...

Games played by Ichiro in his seven seasons in Seattle: 157, 157, 159, 161, 162, 161, 161. Runs scored by Ichiro in each of those seasons: 127, 111, 111, 101, 111, 110, 111. There are clocks that don't offer this kind of day-in, day-out consistent performance, which is why Ichiro is absolutely worthy of the early draft pick you'll spend on him. If he starts off slow in April, as he often does, look to pry him off of an unsuspecting owner, because I guarantee he'll reward you for it in May (career numbers: April BA .299, May BA .370).

Johjima is definitely a step down from the top tier of catchers, but he's no slouch. He carries less risk than the guys being chosen around him, in my opinion, because he has two seasons of solid production under his belt. He may not be a sexy pick because he doesn't offer star potential, but if you don't want to worry about your catcher spot he's the guy you need to target.

Erik Bedard has now escaped the clutches of the AL East, and fantasy owners should be thrilled. Regular match-ups with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are replaced by regular match-ups with the Athletics, Angels, and Rangers. Texas can hit, but Anahiem's offense is mediocre and Oakland is rebuilding. Safeco is a good pitcher's park and Bedard should be a stud pitcher this year.

Richie Sexson is fading fast, in my opinion. He could give you the high-HR, low-BA production of an Adam Dunn if he returns to form, but he looked awful last year. When power hitters are unable to turn on fastballs, they never can return to form. I personally will look at younger options if I'm scraping the bottom tier of first basemen this season. 

Brandon Morrow is the pitcher's name to remember. If anything happens to Putz, he will be next in line for saves, but he also will probably jump into the rotation should anything happen to the starting five. He has immense potential and pitched very well in winter league ball. If you're looking to stash relief pitchers, keep his name on your radar, because he could become very valuable if thrust into a larger role this year.

The M's have some fantasy studs on their roster in Ichiro, Bedard, King Felix, and Putz. They have guys who can fill out your roster in Beltre and Johjima, and of course the names you should avoid at all costs. 2008 ought to be a year of satisfaction after the disappointment that was 2007 in Seattle.

Trendspotting: Johan Santana, Andruw Jones

So I went out looking for trends in some mock drafts this weekend, and I witnessed a fellow drafter take Jake Peavy ahead of Johan Santana. He was admittedly biased (Yankee fan) and immediately chastised, but I began to wonder about the effects of changing leagues for a pitcher. In thinking about Trendspotting, I went with "change of scenery" as my theme and included Andruw Jones as well.

Johan Santana: In 2004, his best season in Minnesota, Santana struck out 265 batters in 228 innings. His strikeout total fell last year to 235 in only 219 innings, still good for third-best in the league (behind Peavy's 240 and Scott Kazmir's 236). This season, I like his strikeout total to rise astronomically, because all the lineups he faces will replace designated hitters with pitchers. How have other pitchers fared when jumping from league to league? Bronson Arroyo, when he came to Cincinnati from Boston in 2006, struck out 184 batters in 240 innings, as compared to only 100 in 205 innings the previous year. Randy Johnson (strikeout pitcher in his prime, very comparable to Johan) struck out 364 batters in 271 innings in 1999, his first full season in the National League. In 1997, his last full year in the AL, Johnson struck out 291 in 213 innings. The innings jump certainly accounts for some of his massive strikeout total, but facing hitters who have never seen you before, as well as facing pitchers for the first time, ought to pad Santana's strikeout numbers significantly. 300 K's is a very real possibility for a guy whose ADP is currently 12.15. I'm not saying he belongs ahead of A-Rod, but he could be very valuable early in a draft when you begin to consider his massive potential. 

Andruw Jones: In Mock Draft Central's most recent expert draft, Jones went in the tenth round. He went 4 rounds after Vernon Wells and 3 after Jason Bay, two other outfielders expected to rebound from bad seasons in 2007. [Interesting aside - all three went to the same team] He doesn't have the speed of his youth, but it's impossible to expect more than 10 SBs from any of the three. He will have the lowest average but should balance it nicely with the most power (in '05 and '06 he hit 51 and 41 HR, with 128 and 129 RBI). Jones even went after Jermaine Dye, which is a sin in my opinion. Dodger Stadium may not be a hitter's paradise but Jones will still hit in a young, talented, speedy lineup (plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, even if it is only with doubles). Jones isn't going to give you 5-category production, but he's on a two-year deal and young enough to get paid big money if he has some success in LA. Look for a big season out of him and absolutely grab him before round 10. I'd take him over Bay or Wells to rebound this year.

Spring Training Tales: National League

And on to the other side of the league...

NL East: The Braves centerfield job is supposedly open to competition, but I expect Kotsay gets it as the veteran. Many of the young Marlins' pitchers have shown flashes of brilliance, so Andrew Miller, Scott Olsen, and Anibal Sanchez are worth keeping an eye on as a late round pick. Washington has a plethora of talent in their outfield, though I fully expect Mo Pena, Milledge, and Kearns to hold their own (So Elijah Dukes will have to wait a bit). This, in turn, could cause a conflict at first between Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson, though neither will provide a whole lot of value.

• NL Central: Chicago has four 5th starts to fill in the 4th and 5th spots. It looks like Marquis might be involved in the Roberts deal, but if not its likely he gets a spot. Also, Lieber was all but guaranteed a spot when he signed with the Cubs. The only guy worth considering come draft day is Marshall, but only if he gets a spot. The Cubs closer role is complicated since Marmol is the only one pitching well, but originally stood as the least likely to close. I still think he pitchers the eighth and Howry eventually loses the job to Kerry Wood. Votto vs. Hatteberg is a big deal, as Votto could be a great 1B or utility if he's the every day first basemen. The Reds signed Corey Patterson, so it looks like Bruce is stuck in the minors until at least the trade deadline. If you are from Pittsburgh, hope that Nady gets traded so Stephen Pearce can get a shot in the outfield--he could be a decent fourth outfielder in a deeper league. Cardinal outfield duties are a confusion, so keep an eye on Rusmus since he could provide good balance. Also, listen for reports on Pujols, who is doing fine so far. Finally, Manny Parra, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush are all competing for spots in the Brewers rotation and could all be relevant. If Capuano shows he's still got something in him, he's worth drafting. Parra, if given a shot, could be almost as good as Gallardo.

NL West: The Dodgers need to get rid of Pierre, but instead Ethier is lost unless he forces the Dodgers' hand and puts up great Spring Training stats. Andy Laroche vs. Nomar Garciaparra is worth paying attention to, but I think Torre will push for the veteran. Finally, Jason Schmidt was an All-Star pitcher, and on an offensively and defensively improved Dodgers team could be worth drafting if he looks healthy. Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley could be decent if they earn a spot, though I think only Headley has a good shot at this. Finally, Micah Owings has been trying out DH duties, which is mostly just funny. How would Yahoo! handle that kind of position eligibility?

So there is the rundown. Feel free to tell me if I missed anything, but hopefully this will help deter you from wasting time checking out boxscores of Toronto vs. Colorado and such, where not much is likely to change. 

Spring Training Tales: American League

Those of you not graced with the gift of StatTracker know the adrenaline rush that comes with checking out box scores. However, the importance of these reports its a lot different during Spring Training than the actual season, since performance doesn't always (or even often) translate to the bigs.

However, what is important are position battles and injuries. Many sites offer a more comprehensive list, but most players competing for a spot are not going to offer relevant fantasy production, at least this year. Here are the things worth keeping up with...

AL East: Bucholz vs. Lester would have been interesting, but Schilling going down gives each a roster spot. The Yankees have a logjam at first base, and Shelley Duncan has started strong this offseason. Between him, Betemit, and Ensberg, you are choosing your vice, but as Pete mentioned in his team report, any Yankee is worth following. The Orioles closing job will likely go to Sherrill, so the only thing worth paying attention to is the performance of star-prospect Adam Jones, who hit his first HR with the O's yesterday. The Rays final rotation spots are interesting, but none of the guys should be big impact players this year and it isn't worth the headache. However, Longoria is worth watching--he's had two impact extra-base hits already and could provide 25 HR if he gets the starting gig.

• AL Central: 2006 Fantasy Ace Jeremy Bonderman is coming off a bad season, but if he starts strong (3 scoreless innings yesterday) he could be a bargain on draft day. Carlos Gomez could be a sleeper pick for steals, as Jose Reyes himself proclaimed the prospect is faster than he is. If the Twins offense turns the corner this year he could be as good as Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras, or Juan Pierre. Joe Crede is most definitely getting traded, though Josh Fields is still worth monitoring if you are waivering on your opinion of him.

AL West: The Angels have some competition at SS, with Brandon Wood and Eric Aybar competing for the job. Wood could come with upside as a sleeper in deeper leagues if he looks good this spring. Guerrero's health is also worth paying attention to, as is Ervin Santana's ability to fill in for Escobar. Seattle's prospect to watch is Wladimir Balentien, if only because his name is so fun to try to pronounce. Oakland position battles are somewhat intriguing, as Daric Barton could provide some value at first if he starts strong. 

MLB.com provides boxscores of all Cactus League and Grapefruit League play, and I will praise whichever blogger can explain why the leagues are called such. Also, Fangraphs provides cumulative statistics over the course of the preseason.

Texas Rangers

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA OAK

The lineup and the rotation in Texas may change from year-to-year, but the team never really does. It's always a power-hitting lineup without a great rotation. Draft accordingly.

Lineup:

• 2B Ian Kinsler
• DH Frank Catalanotto
• SS Michael Young
• RF Milton Bradley
• 3B Hank Blalock
• CF Josh Hamilton
• C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
• 1B Ben Broussard
• LF Marlon Byrd

Rotation:

• Kevin Millwood
• Vicente Padilla
• Kason Gabbard
• Brandon McCarthy
• Jason Jennings

Closer: Eddie Guardado/CJ Wilson

Thoughts...

On bad teams, I like to look at the closer first. If a team has a talented closer, he's worth drafting to see if he'll produce saves when given the chance and get traded to a contender in mid-season. Unfortunately, Texas has a huge logjam in the back of the bullpen. CJ Wilson, along with Joaquin Benoit, closed games at the end of last season, but the club brought in free agents Eddie Guardado and Kazuo Fukumori. Right now, any of the four could end up with the job. Fantasy translation: Stay away.

Kevin Millwood has historically had some productive fantasy seasons - never really top numbers, but good enough to merit drafting as a 4 or 5. Not last season. He had some injury problems, but his ERA also ballooned over 5.00 while his strikeouts from 157 to 123. Generally speaking, I like veteran pitchers to rebound toward their career numbers (coming off good seasons and bad), but I can't really justify drafting Millwood. Give him the month of April before you give him a roster spot on your team.

Josh Hamilton is a popular sleeper pick whose ADP may have risen above that of a true sleeper. Although he is an awesome story and a guy who could fill a number two outfielder spot, you shouldn't draft him as if he will be a number two. Be mindful of the difference, but look to grab him when appropriate. 

I always forget about Ian Kinsler, and I know I'm going to pay for it in one of my drafts this season. He's BJ Upton minus batting average, but he's usually available five rounds later. Unfortunately, he may not give you the RBI numbers you want because he hits so high in the lineup. Nonetheless, have your eye on him to give great value in the middle rounds of a draft. 

Offensively, this team has potential at many positions. Blalock can be had late and potentially provide 25 HRs at 3B, Salty is widely projected to be a good fantasy catcher, and even Milton Bradley is worth a look if you think he can stay healthy. I don't think I could justify drafting a single pitcher from this team, though. 

Oakland Athletics

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA

The Oakland Athletics have consistently been one of baseball's most resourceful small market franchises. Generally manager Billy Beane has been popularly acclaimed for his book Moneyball, but this season he seems to have run out of magic. The A's dealt their stars to replenish their farm system, and they just don't have the talent to win a lot of baseball games this season. Here's how they might look on Opening Day.

Lineup:

• LF Travis Buck
• 1B Daric Barton
• 3B Eric Chavez
• DH Jack Cust
• RF Emil Brown
• SS Bobby Crosby
• CF Chris Denorfia
• 2B Mark Ellis
• C Kurt Suzuki

Rotation:

• Joe Blanton
• Chad Gaudin
• Rich Harden
• Justin Duchscherer
• Lenny DiNardo

Closer: Huston Street

Thoughts...

Honestly, what's to like? I suppose I'll start with Jack Cust and Mark Ellis. Neither of these two is usually drafted, and in leagues with five outfield spots or extra middle infield spots, both of these could be sources of cheap power with literally your final pick. Cust isn't going to hit .300 anytime soon, but he could easily hit 35 HR if he could stay healthy for the entire year. Ellis hit 19 HR last year, and those would look very nice in a MI spot in bigger leagues.

Rich Harden is up there with Ben Sheets in risk-reward ratio. If he could ever piece together a full season, he'd easily be a number three fantasy starter, with the potential to even be a two. If you can get him late, he could be worth a gamble, but know that it's a pretty big gamble after his injury history. 

Huston Street is a talented fantasy closer, but he belongs outside the top tier. Think of Mike Gonzalez on the 2006 Pirates - he was perfect in the ninth, but the team was so bad it didn't get him enough opportunities. Although he was productive, his only chance of becoming a top closer involved a trade to a contender. If Street is on the market this season, his value will increase; otherwise, look for him as your second closer.

There's not much else to be excited about. Kurt Suzuki could be a mediocre fantasy catcher, useful in two-catcher leagues. Joe Blanton eats innings and has decent strikeout numbers, but his ERA isn't going to end up below 4.00. Chad Gaudin faded badly at the end of last season; if you can convince yourself this is because he pitched exclusively in relief in 2006, then I suppose he's worth a flier. The outfield situation is a mess, and it's not worth drafting any of the prospects because at this point it's still unclear who will start.

Although Oakland is only a year removed from the division title, they aren't going to be competitive this year. Fantasy-wise, there's simply not that much here this season, and I will be looking outside the Bay Area for just about every position in my drafts.

Los Angeles Angels

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL

The Angels are the powerhouse of the American League West, and although they didn't win the Miguel Cabrera Sweepstakes this offseason, they enter 2008 as the favorite to win the division title. I have a soft spot for Vladimir Guerrero, as Zach has already documented, so I'll be pulling for this lineup to provide him a little protection for once this year.

Lineup:

• 3B Chone Figgins
• LF Gary Matthews, Jr.
• RF Vladimir Guerrero
• CF Torii Hunter
• DH Garrett Anderson
• 1B Casey Kotchman
• 2B Howie Kendrick
• C Mike Napoli
• SS Erick Aybar

Rotation:

• John Lackey
• Kelvim Escobar
• Jon Garland
• Jered Weaver
• Joe Saunders
• Ervin Santana

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Thoughts...

Things you already know: K-Rod is one of the top closers in fantasy baseball. He puts up awesome numbers across the board and closes for a winning team with excellent starters, a good bullpen, and not enough offense to be winning a lot of blowouts (translation: he gets plenty of save opportunities). Things you may not know: He recently lost his arbitration case. He's in a walk year, and it's been proven time and time again that players in walk years perform above and beyond expectations. K-Rod is looking to cash in this off-season, and I highly recommend you cashing in on him this year.

Kelvim Escobar has put together three productive years and one injured year in his Angels career thusfar. 2008, unfortunately, may fall into the "injured" category. He began last year with shoulder pain and finished last year with shoulder pain, and although rest was prescribed, it apparently hasn't helped. He will be out probably until May, but it's possible the Angels will not rush him back or give him time off during the year if both Saunders and Santana pitch well. He's a popular sleeper pick if he falls, but I would worry about drafting the 2005 version of Escobar rather than the 2007. Caveat Emptor. 

I am a Howie Kendrick fan. I'd love to see him hit higher in the LA order and score some more runs, but I still believe he'll be a very productive second baseman. Everyone agrees that a healthy season for Kendrick will most likely end with a .330 batting average - wouldn't that look great on a team with Adam Dunn or even Juan Pierre? He balances out the HR and SB specialists that otherwise kill your average, and if you're not grabbing Utley, I think that's a great use of your 2B spot.

Vlad is a stud. He may be done stealing bases, but he's still a lock for four category production. Late in the second round or beyond, you're getting great value. John Lackey is also a quality pitcher who is productive across the board. Jon Garland is my favorite pitcher to grab at the end of a draft, while Jered Weaver is generally a good value pick in the middle-to-late rounds.

Some names to keep in mind: Brandon Wood and Juan Rivera. Wood is the organization's top prospect, a big power hitter who plays 3B but could also play shortstop. If Aybar and Macier Izturis do not pan out, or if the Angel lineup is lacking power, Wood could get some serious playing time. He will not hit for a high average but he will bang homeruns - his numbers will work out like those of Adam Dunn, big HRs and low average. Rivera had an excellent 2006 (.310 with 23 HR) but is the odd man out of the outfield rotation right now. Still, Anderson especially is aging, and if any of the four gets injured, Rivera could step in and be extremely productive. If he's not worth drafting, he's certainly worth watching on the waiver wire. He could be the pickup that saves your season.

The Angels have it all (from a fantasy perspective) - the studs, the solid players, and the sleepers. They're a lock to win games consistently, and manager Mike Scioscia will continue to have them play National League-style baseball and win games without the big top-to-bottom lineup of their counterparts.