In Their Minds
Last week the MLB Front Office writers (well, 5 of us) invited a number of experts to participate in an expert mock draft. The draft was held on mockdraftcentral.com and was a standard 12-team snake draft. The draft results are now available in the draft guide. After the draft I asked the owners 3 questions regarding their draft. Below you will find (most of) the answers.
Cory Humes – Seamless Baseball
Your first two picks of the draft were spent on Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun. Had this been a real league do you think you would have been more hesitant to clog up the corner infield spot so early? What caused you to draft Braun here?
If this had been a real league, I think I would've hesitated even less in acquiring Braun---because in 20 games, if all goes according to plan, he'll be a fantasy outfielder. I wasn't concerned with positions at this point. David Ortiz is still a top-20 talent, and he's stuck at utility. I felt that I needed to get maximum value out of the pick, and to me, Braun provided that. My gut says he'll put up top 10 numbers in 2008, and to get that production at pick No. 24 is a boon. Power, average, running: What's not to like?
Was there a strategy behind drafting both Russell Martin (Rd 3) and Joe Mauer (Rd 6)?
It wasn't as much a strategy as the same sort of common-sense thinking that landed me both A-Rod and Braun: I saw a player at a valuable position who was still on the board later than I thought he should be, and so I snatched him up. In two-catcher leagues, the backstops going in the last few rounds are the true dregs of society. A second catcher’s spot counts the same as a starting first baseman or third closer does. I want to maximize value in each lineup position, and I think it’s easier, relatively speaking, to find quality contributions in the infield, outfield and on the pitching staff than behind the plate.
You drafted three straight closers from round 7-9, but didn’t draft your first starting pitcher until round 12. What was the thinking behind this and do you like the results?
My thinking was that you can always stream starting pitching, but there is a finite number of closer roles to be filled. After those 30 arms are off the board, you're left waiting for the first job vacancy during the season. My starting staff has a lot of upside, and if we were playing this league out, I'd be confident going into battle with Ben Sheets as my ace. I'd add and drop SP based on daily match-ups, hope that the relief corps holds down the ratios, and count on my offense to be as productive as projected. I'm confident I'd have a chance to succeed.
Brad Stewart – MLB Front Office (Questions asked by Cory Humes)
You drafted offense with your first six picks, but none of your position players will contribute much batting average. Did you make a conscious decision to punt that category, or was that sacrifice simply a byproduct of targeting power and steals?
The answer to this question is two-fold. I never recommend punting a category to anybody. That being said, sometimes drafting for power and average comes at the expense of average. I realized that this was occurring while I was drafting, and therefore, waited to grab Freddy Sanchez as my 2B. Obviously, one player can not rescue a lost category, but hopefully he can help. With that in mind, I think that drafting players whose stock falls because of a poor average can be an interesting strategy. If you are willing to sacrifice average, for example, Adam Dunn’s 40 homeruns can be a steal. That wasn’t my intention here, but that’s kind of how it worked out.
Your starting pitchers all have a significant amount of upside: How does the risk-reward dichotomy sit in your mind? Did you consider targeting a more established ace as an anchor for your staff?
As a general rule, I wait to take pitchers. And then, when I think it looks like time to take a pitcher, I wait some more. Pitchers are so volatile that spending a high round pick on a pitcher is more risk than I’m willing to take in the first half of the draft. That being said, after round 10, my whole strategy is about taking risks. Drafting high-upside pitchers has always been my strategy. That being said, I was aiming to take a more reliable starter at the top. Given the choice between Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay, though, I will opt for Hernandez every time.
Your catchers, J.R. Towles and Kurt Suzuki, have proven little at the major-league level. Where is the value in heading into 2008 with two rookie backstops in your starting lineup?
The value in heading into 2008 with unproven catchers is that I didn’t have to spend a high round pick on a catcher. Catchers contribute so little to fantasy baseball (with the exception of a few) that it is a pick better spent to wait and find a catcher that won’t HURT you, rather than spend a pick on a catcher that will help you a little bit. Towles and Suzuki are two catchers that I am targeting this year in the later rounds because both seemed poised for break out year. And, if they don’t breakout, they are easily replaceable.
Shane Huff – Fantasy Insider Online
One of your apparent needs is for more saves. What is your strategy regarding drafting closers this year?
The lack of closers, and as a result saves, was done by design. More so than any other category, saves can be picked up as the season goes on. Of course, this strategy relies heavily on getting information as soon as it is available, but often in a season a closer can either get injured or simply lose his job, leaving to door open for the setup man to take over. Utilizing this strategy correctly allows you to focus on other positions in early to mid rounds of the draft.
You drafted Hanley Ramirez with your first round selection and then sat back and didn’t draft much more speed. Do you foresee a problem with having all of your speed locked up in one player – especially one who is coming off an injury?
Yes and No. It's always a risk when you count on one player to fill the stolen base category, especially a player coming off an injury. If Hanley goes down, it's likely that the stolen base category will be lost with him. However, I wouldn't totally agree that I sat back on speed and don't have compensation were Ramirez to miss time. I expect Derek Lee to hit double-digit steals, Ian Kinsler to reach 30 with a full season of play, Nick Markakis swiped 18 last year and stands to do it again this year and Mark Teahen is a solid candidate for mid-teens in stolen bases. While none of those players are in the upper echelon of base stealers, they all will contribute to the category.
Your rotation is based primarily off of high upside players with a bunch of young guys and Johnson who is returning from an injury. Are there certain pitchers you are targeting at the end of drafts?
Absolutely. There is a whole list of guys to target late, you just have to decide whether you want to target #4 or #5 starters, or if you want to target #2, #3 starters who have lots of potential but also have health concerns. In this draft, I targeted players with high upside who also have a greater chance of getting injured. Take Randy Johnson for example. If Johnson pitches at 80 percent, that's likely going to be better than any four or five starter out there. Of course, you have to use your high risk/high reward picks sparingly, because taking too many such players can leave you in a world of trouble and at the bottom of your league.
Eric J. Seidman – MLB Front Office
You essentially threw saves by drafting only Jones and Pena. What is your strategy for drafting closers?
Though some may disagree my strategy for drafting closers is not to draft them. There is so much shifting in the position and, other than Wagner, Hoffman, Rivera, and Isringhausen, you are never assured of a certain set of results. There are always some up and coming guys that may end up with a high number of saves but why risk a pick on an unknown? I am not a huge fan of projections but rather a combination of what has happened and what I see - and I watch a lot of baseball. I want innings. Those with the highest amount of innings, save for Livan Hernandez, will generally have better ERA's and WHIP's. They are out there the longest because they are the most effective. The higher opportunity also allows them more opportunities to record wins and strikeouts. A starter can supremely help a team in the categories of W, K, WHIP, and ERA (4/5). A closer can really only help in Saves, with maybe ERA and WHIP (1/5 min, 3/5 max). The latter two stats are also ridiculous for a closer because they can balloon quite frequently. If a closer pitches 9 straight games, for 1.0 IP each game, goes the first 7 appearances without giving up a run, but then gives up a solo HR in game 8, and a three-run homer in game 9, he has an ERA of 4.00 even though he did his job 78% of the time. I want the guys who can help me in the most categories and closers are not them.
Despite needing five outfielders, you waited to draft you first outfielder until the 11th round. Was this your strategy going into the draft? Are you pleased with the results?
To quickly answer those two questions, no, and no. My strategy is always to get a 2B very early, as I did with Utley, because there are far less great players at that. After that I really just wanted to go with the flow and take what could help me the most at that specific time. I'm a huge pitchers guy and so I lost out on some outfielders by taking pitchers early on. I always wanted Pat Burrell and was glad to get him, though I feel I could have done a better job drafting them. When I began drafting outfielders I noticed that I did not have many steals and so I went for McLouth and Cabrera. Willingham and Diaz are two very scary players that may be better examples of good baseball players than good fantasy players but I strongly feel if Diaz plays an entire season he would hit around .315/.395/.470 with close to 20 HR and a lot of doubles. Other than a few positions, I generally like to take the approach that the contributions from some very reliable starters can outweigh mediocre contributions from the outfield. But, all told, if I had to do it again I would have waited on a 3B until later and drafted an OF in round three.
You reached for pitchers early and drafted pitchers in the 4th-7th rounds. What is your strategy concerning starting pitching this year?
My strategy concerning starting pitchers is the same every year - give me the reliable ones. I looked at every other team in our draft and I cannot find any that legitimately have a better starting rotation than mine. As mentioned in the answer involving not drafting closers, I want the guys who are going to be out there the most because, other than Livan, these are most often the guys that perform the best. My top five starters are CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Andy Pettitte. People can say all they want about Pettitte's psyche after these hearings but I am willing to bet money Pettitte wins 14+ games this year with 175+ IP and an ERA between 3.70 and 4.30. Rounding out my rotation are Dustin McGowan and Shawn Hill who have the potential to have very good seasons this year. Hill's achilles heel is health. Last year, he had one of the highest effectiveness pts/gm scores but his overall effectiveness points was not very high because he was not out there as often. I always see the key to starting pitching success as the guys who are out there the most. With the five pitchers in my starting rotation mentioned above I put myself in the best possible position to win pitching categories. It hurts in some other areas but I tend to think the opposite from what most will say - I feel that getting extremely reliable pitchers is something you cannot do in later rounds or on the waiver wire, whereas it will be easier to find outfield production later on down the road from some guys we've never heard of before.
Adam Cohen – MLB Front Office
Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 8th round seems like a little bit of a stretch. What do you foresee for him this year?
Yeah, I’ll agree it was a bit early. However, I really feel like he could have a nice season. I see him ending up around 15-18 HR, and probably 70-80 RBI. I wanted to build this team around offense and at that moment I felt I needed to have a solid catcher in place as to not boot a position.
Your starting pitching looks very solid at the top, but there are a couple of huge question marks at the bottom. What are your opinions on the pitchers you drafted from Willis down?
The pitchers I drafted after Willis would be Rich Harden, Hideki Okajima, and Andrew Miller. With Harden everything I have read said he was healthy and was not feeling any soreness after his bullpen sessions. He is listed as the #2 starter for Oakland this year and I felt that might help take some of the pressure off. I know he has an injury plagued history, but I made this pick as a high risk high/reward type move. Okajima I drafted to help lower my ERA and WHIP some while providing some good Ks. He is also the next in line to close should anything happen and with him pitching late in games on a great offensive team, the chance for 5-10 wins is there as well. Miller was drafted for Ks. I think in Florida he will be able to settle in. He is going to be in the middle of their rotation and therefore will not have added pressure. He has always been a good K guy, so that was the main purpose in me drafting him. I do think in that monster sized ball park he will end up with an era under 4 or one just slightly over.
Your first two picks were both players that were combo speed and power players. Was there a strategy behind this or did it just work out this way?
It is definitely a strategy of mine to always try and draft five tool players. They contribute in all categories so that always helps. However, this was more based on the fact that they were both there during my draft positions. Getting power hitters who can contribute in SB allows you to not have to waste a roster spot on speed specialist.
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Looking at your starting pitching, none of them play for very good teams. Do you foresee wins being a problem for this squad?
My starting pitching definitely looks to be a tad light in the wins category. When you draft starting pitching from Toronto, San Francisco, St. Louis and Pittsburgh those wins could most certainly be a struggle. I generally don't place that much emphasis on the "wins" category when drafting a team. I look for pitchers that I believe to be relatively low injury risks, have reasonable upsides and the potential to post decent ERA,WHIP and K rates. The draft is simply the beginning or starting point and without a doubt were this mock to be played out I would attempt to build in at least two to three starting pitchers to my bench. By carefully using your bench and scouring the waiver wire one can create a situation where the 10-12 win pitcher does and can carry a very good value.
You drafted outfielders with four of your first five picks. I know this is a strategy that you employ often. What are the benefits of this strategy? Do you see any weaknesses?
Since back in December I've been experimenting with what I like to call "My all Outfield, All the time Strategy". In a standard format, five outfielders are required and heading into the 2008 season the outfield is most certainly not overly deep. I've found that by shoring up the outfield early the opportunities are most certainly there to provide for what I believe is a solid and balanced team. In this draft, I drafted four of my first five picks as outfielders and still managed to have a solid first base in Carlos Pena, my middle infield consists of Mark Ellis and Kelly Johnson, with Adrian Beltre and Garrett Atkins at the corners. My pitching is relatively high risk, but at the same time should at least with the 3 closers be a mid-level staff and with the offense provide a good opportunity to be a contending team. The biggest potential problem that I believe can occur is over-reaching to fill the position. It is fine to work on developing a strategy, but one also has to be flexible enough within one's plans to be able to recognize better options when they become available.
Carlos Pena in round 6 could be a great value. What signs do you see that he can repeat/not repeat last year?
Going back to those early years as a Detroit Tiger, there have been few doubts as to the power potential of Carlos Pena. It was the low batting average that limited his potential playing time. Whether Pena will bat 280 with 40+ homeruns in 2008 certainly carries its fair share of concern, but he did show the ability to perform at that level in 2007. My personal take is that a 35 homerun, 250 batting average for 2008 is more likely. By surrounding Pena with the likes of my first five picks, Crawford,Ichiro,Atkins,Granderson and Hart, even a regression into the 250 batting average range has a rather diminished effect on my team batting average and those potential homerun's could be a huge plus. In this scenario a more than decent gamble.
Knox Bardeen – Crooked Pitch
The first thing that jumps out is that you only have five starting pitchers and three of them probably won’t accumulate a ton of strikeouts. Was this planned or a late round “oh shit”?
I wanted to jump out and grab a few studs to anchor my staff. After that I planned on taking a LIMA approach. During the season, if this league played out I would be very active on the waiver wire for more LIMA options. Hopefully, I’d be able to keep my ERA and WHIP low with middle relievers while still racking up wins. I surely won’t finish at the top of the K’s category, but I won’t do to poorly in the other four pitching stats.
Your team has an elite amount of power, but could struggle in the speed department. If we were playing this league out what moves would you make to balance this out?
The easy answer is trades. I imagine it would be quite easy to trade some of my power for speed later on. My draft strategy going in was to build a team based on power and to really master the outfield position. That strategy doesn’t come without shortcomings though, as I know I’ll have to use transactions to balance my team starting around mid-season.
You had drafted your entire outfield by round 11. Were there any players after round 11 that you wish you could have drafted had you had an available spot?
As I said earlier, it was my plan to grab outfielders early. Taking a look at what happened in the outfield position after the 11th round there are a few guys who I wouldn’t mind having on my team. Michel Bourne in the 13th round strikes me first. His speed and run scoring numbers will be great this season as he bats leadoff for the Astros. Jeremy Hermida in the 14th, while an injury risk, has a bunch of upside and could very well break out this season. I’ve been targeting him in a number of my other drafts. Willy Tavaras in the 16th would have been nice for the exact same reasons as Bourne would have been. With as much power as I drafted it would have been very easy to take a Bourne or a Tavaras who will only help in stolen bases and runs scored.
Kelly Pfleiger – Fantasy Gameday
Your rotation is very high risk/high reward with Lincecum, Burnett, and Bonderman. What do you expect from these three players? We’re you happy with your rotation?
Yes, I do have a high risk/high reward type of starting staff with Hamels, Lincecum, Burnett, Bonderman, and Arroyo. I firmly believe in chasing strikeouts and not wins. So I expect my staff to pile up strikeouts while not killing me in other areas. I do anticipate Lincecum being the best pitcher out of the ones that I selected. I am also expecting Burnett to be hurt at some point during the year, but provide solid performances when healthy. I am also anticipating Bonderman to not be as awful as he was last year, and an ERA closer to 4.00 is more likely then not. Yes I am happy with my staff, but would be looking towards some younger pitchers possibly getting a chance this year.
You drafted Joba Chamberlain in the 17th round. What are your expectations for Joba in 2008? How long do you think the Yankees will keep him in the bullpen?
How could I pass on such a high strikeout rate pitcher in the 17th round? Regardless of if he stays in middle relief all year, his high strikeout rate can help any team. I personally think that Joba will remain in the bullpen all year and replace Rivera at some point this season, or at the very least, pick up 5-10 saves spelling him during the year. Those would be cheap saves to acquire from a pitcher that will boost other areas of your pitching staff.
Kevin Youkilis is your starting first baseman (Rd 16). Was it your plan to wait this long to draft a first baseman? What was the strategy behind this?
No, I was not planning on waiting until round 16 to take my first baseman. Drafting Kevin Youkilis as my starting first baseman was an “oh crap” moment. I lost Derrek Lee, Nick Swisher, and Todd Helton along the way, but did not worry. Ryan Garko was taken way ahead of what I was willing to pay, and Adam LaRoche was taken the pick in front of me. I also missed out on Conor Jackson by one pick in the 21st round. So throughout the draft I was using plan B, C, D, and then the Oh Crap I better take someone plan.
Kevin Orris – MLB Front Office
There were many other options in the outfield available when you drafted Manny Ramirez (Round 4 Pick 2). Do you regret this pick? What lead you to draft him here?
Approaching this pick I was really thinking about Byrnes. I had quickly made a few changes to the MDC rankings before the draft and only had time to move a few players. I wanted to stick to the list as close as possible, which is the reasoning behind quite a few of my picks. Looking back I should have taken Byrnes, but I didn't do so. The Manny pick ended up killing the rest of my draft, at least how I see it. I am not a big fan of drafting towards the back this year, unless it’s with everyday people.
Between Roberts, Soriano, Pence, and Ellsbury you have plenty of speed. Do you feel you still have enough power? If we were going to play this league out what moves do you think you would make?
I'm not the biggest Howard fan, but since he fell to me at 11, I had to do it. I think I have enough power, but I could use more. It's definitely something I would look to add to during this season though. Thankfully this was only a mock draft. As far as drafting the speedy guys, Soriano is lethal in Wrigley in the current Cubs lineup and any player that can steal a few bases always helps. Roberts is a guy I really like playing 2B, especially if he is moved to Chicago. I love Pence this year with the Houston lineup, and he is good for a few steals, but some people overrate his speed. Ellsbury has outbreak potential, and if he did so, I would look into trading him during the season to add more power.
You didn’t draft your starting 3B until round 21. Are you satisfied with Blake as your starting 3B?
I love Chipper Jones in this years draft and really wanted him, but thought it might have been a little to early. Looking back, I should have taken him in the 4th round, but that didn't happen. Blake is okay at 3B, but there are a lot of better guys. 3B is pretty deep this year, and I needed power in the later rounds. Blake seemed like a good fit to help add some home runs.
Hopefully this will provide good insight into what the experts were thinking while they were making the picks. ADP is great, but understanding why a player was taken where he was is even more important. We’ll have a similar wrap-up from our Expert Auction Mock Draft in the next week or two.
Cory Humes – Seamless Baseball
Your first two picks of the draft were spent on Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun. Had this been a real league do you think you would have been more hesitant to clog up the corner infield spot so early? What caused you to draft Braun here?
If this had been a real league, I think I would've hesitated even less in acquiring Braun---because in 20 games, if all goes according to plan, he'll be a fantasy outfielder. I wasn't concerned with positions at this point. David Ortiz is still a top-20 talent, and he's stuck at utility. I felt that I needed to get maximum value out of the pick, and to me, Braun provided that. My gut says he'll put up top 10 numbers in 2008, and to get that production at pick No. 24 is a boon. Power, average, running: What's not to like?
Was there a strategy behind drafting both Russell Martin (Rd 3) and Joe Mauer (Rd 6)?
It wasn't as much a strategy as the same sort of common-sense thinking that landed me both A-Rod and Braun: I saw a player at a valuable position who was still on the board later than I thought he should be, and so I snatched him up. In two-catcher leagues, the backstops going in the last few rounds are the true dregs of society. A second catcher’s spot counts the same as a starting first baseman or third closer does. I want to maximize value in each lineup position, and I think it’s easier, relatively speaking, to find quality contributions in the infield, outfield and on the pitching staff than behind the plate.
You drafted three straight closers from round 7-9, but didn’t draft your first starting pitcher until round 12. What was the thinking behind this and do you like the results?
My thinking was that you can always stream starting pitching, but there is a finite number of closer roles to be filled. After those 30 arms are off the board, you're left waiting for the first job vacancy during the season. My starting staff has a lot of upside, and if we were playing this league out, I'd be confident going into battle with Ben Sheets as my ace. I'd add and drop SP based on daily match-ups, hope that the relief corps holds down the ratios, and count on my offense to be as productive as projected. I'm confident I'd have a chance to succeed.
Brad Stewart – MLB Front Office (Questions asked by Cory Humes)
You drafted offense with your first six picks, but none of your position players will contribute much batting average. Did you make a conscious decision to punt that category, or was that sacrifice simply a byproduct of targeting power and steals?
The answer to this question is two-fold. I never recommend punting a category to anybody. That being said, sometimes drafting for power and average comes at the expense of average. I realized that this was occurring while I was drafting, and therefore, waited to grab Freddy Sanchez as my 2B. Obviously, one player can not rescue a lost category, but hopefully he can help. With that in mind, I think that drafting players whose stock falls because of a poor average can be an interesting strategy. If you are willing to sacrifice average, for example, Adam Dunn’s 40 homeruns can be a steal. That wasn’t my intention here, but that’s kind of how it worked out.
Your starting pitchers all have a significant amount of upside: How does the risk-reward dichotomy sit in your mind? Did you consider targeting a more established ace as an anchor for your staff?
As a general rule, I wait to take pitchers. And then, when I think it looks like time to take a pitcher, I wait some more. Pitchers are so volatile that spending a high round pick on a pitcher is more risk than I’m willing to take in the first half of the draft. That being said, after round 10, my whole strategy is about taking risks. Drafting high-upside pitchers has always been my strategy. That being said, I was aiming to take a more reliable starter at the top. Given the choice between Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay, though, I will opt for Hernandez every time.
Your catchers, J.R. Towles and Kurt Suzuki, have proven little at the major-league level. Where is the value in heading into 2008 with two rookie backstops in your starting lineup?
The value in heading into 2008 with unproven catchers is that I didn’t have to spend a high round pick on a catcher. Catchers contribute so little to fantasy baseball (with the exception of a few) that it is a pick better spent to wait and find a catcher that won’t HURT you, rather than spend a pick on a catcher that will help you a little bit. Towles and Suzuki are two catchers that I am targeting this year in the later rounds because both seemed poised for break out year. And, if they don’t breakout, they are easily replaceable.
Shane Huff – Fantasy Insider Online
One of your apparent needs is for more saves. What is your strategy regarding drafting closers this year?
The lack of closers, and as a result saves, was done by design. More so than any other category, saves can be picked up as the season goes on. Of course, this strategy relies heavily on getting information as soon as it is available, but often in a season a closer can either get injured or simply lose his job, leaving to door open for the setup man to take over. Utilizing this strategy correctly allows you to focus on other positions in early to mid rounds of the draft.
You drafted Hanley Ramirez with your first round selection and then sat back and didn’t draft much more speed. Do you foresee a problem with having all of your speed locked up in one player – especially one who is coming off an injury?
Yes and No. It's always a risk when you count on one player to fill the stolen base category, especially a player coming off an injury. If Hanley goes down, it's likely that the stolen base category will be lost with him. However, I wouldn't totally agree that I sat back on speed and don't have compensation were Ramirez to miss time. I expect Derek Lee to hit double-digit steals, Ian Kinsler to reach 30 with a full season of play, Nick Markakis swiped 18 last year and stands to do it again this year and Mark Teahen is a solid candidate for mid-teens in stolen bases. While none of those players are in the upper echelon of base stealers, they all will contribute to the category.
Your rotation is based primarily off of high upside players with a bunch of young guys and Johnson who is returning from an injury. Are there certain pitchers you are targeting at the end of drafts?
Absolutely. There is a whole list of guys to target late, you just have to decide whether you want to target #4 or #5 starters, or if you want to target #2, #3 starters who have lots of potential but also have health concerns. In this draft, I targeted players with high upside who also have a greater chance of getting injured. Take Randy Johnson for example. If Johnson pitches at 80 percent, that's likely going to be better than any four or five starter out there. Of course, you have to use your high risk/high reward picks sparingly, because taking too many such players can leave you in a world of trouble and at the bottom of your league.
Eric J. Seidman – MLB Front Office
You essentially threw saves by drafting only Jones and Pena. What is your strategy for drafting closers?
Though some may disagree my strategy for drafting closers is not to draft them. There is so much shifting in the position and, other than Wagner, Hoffman, Rivera, and Isringhausen, you are never assured of a certain set of results. There are always some up and coming guys that may end up with a high number of saves but why risk a pick on an unknown? I am not a huge fan of projections but rather a combination of what has happened and what I see - and I watch a lot of baseball. I want innings. Those with the highest amount of innings, save for Livan Hernandez, will generally have better ERA's and WHIP's. They are out there the longest because they are the most effective. The higher opportunity also allows them more opportunities to record wins and strikeouts. A starter can supremely help a team in the categories of W, K, WHIP, and ERA (4/5). A closer can really only help in Saves, with maybe ERA and WHIP (1/5 min, 3/5 max). The latter two stats are also ridiculous for a closer because they can balloon quite frequently. If a closer pitches 9 straight games, for 1.0 IP each game, goes the first 7 appearances without giving up a run, but then gives up a solo HR in game 8, and a three-run homer in game 9, he has an ERA of 4.00 even though he did his job 78% of the time. I want the guys who can help me in the most categories and closers are not them.
Despite needing five outfielders, you waited to draft you first outfielder until the 11th round. Was this your strategy going into the draft? Are you pleased with the results?
To quickly answer those two questions, no, and no. My strategy is always to get a 2B very early, as I did with Utley, because there are far less great players at that. After that I really just wanted to go with the flow and take what could help me the most at that specific time. I'm a huge pitchers guy and so I lost out on some outfielders by taking pitchers early on. I always wanted Pat Burrell and was glad to get him, though I feel I could have done a better job drafting them. When I began drafting outfielders I noticed that I did not have many steals and so I went for McLouth and Cabrera. Willingham and Diaz are two very scary players that may be better examples of good baseball players than good fantasy players but I strongly feel if Diaz plays an entire season he would hit around .315/.395/.470 with close to 20 HR and a lot of doubles. Other than a few positions, I generally like to take the approach that the contributions from some very reliable starters can outweigh mediocre contributions from the outfield. But, all told, if I had to do it again I would have waited on a 3B until later and drafted an OF in round three.
You reached for pitchers early and drafted pitchers in the 4th-7th rounds. What is your strategy concerning starting pitching this year?
My strategy concerning starting pitchers is the same every year - give me the reliable ones. I looked at every other team in our draft and I cannot find any that legitimately have a better starting rotation than mine. As mentioned in the answer involving not drafting closers, I want the guys who are going to be out there the most because, other than Livan, these are most often the guys that perform the best. My top five starters are CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Andy Pettitte. People can say all they want about Pettitte's psyche after these hearings but I am willing to bet money Pettitte wins 14+ games this year with 175+ IP and an ERA between 3.70 and 4.30. Rounding out my rotation are Dustin McGowan and Shawn Hill who have the potential to have very good seasons this year. Hill's achilles heel is health. Last year, he had one of the highest effectiveness pts/gm scores but his overall effectiveness points was not very high because he was not out there as often. I always see the key to starting pitching success as the guys who are out there the most. With the five pitchers in my starting rotation mentioned above I put myself in the best possible position to win pitching categories. It hurts in some other areas but I tend to think the opposite from what most will say - I feel that getting extremely reliable pitchers is something you cannot do in later rounds or on the waiver wire, whereas it will be easier to find outfield production later on down the road from some guys we've never heard of before.
Adam Cohen – MLB Front Office
Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 8th round seems like a little bit of a stretch. What do you foresee for him this year?
Yeah, I’ll agree it was a bit early. However, I really feel like he could have a nice season. I see him ending up around 15-18 HR, and probably 70-80 RBI. I wanted to build this team around offense and at that moment I felt I needed to have a solid catcher in place as to not boot a position.
Your starting pitching looks very solid at the top, but there are a couple of huge question marks at the bottom. What are your opinions on the pitchers you drafted from Willis down?
The pitchers I drafted after Willis would be Rich Harden, Hideki Okajima, and Andrew Miller. With Harden everything I have read said he was healthy and was not feeling any soreness after his bullpen sessions. He is listed as the #2 starter for Oakland this year and I felt that might help take some of the pressure off. I know he has an injury plagued history, but I made this pick as a high risk high/reward type move. Okajima I drafted to help lower my ERA and WHIP some while providing some good Ks. He is also the next in line to close should anything happen and with him pitching late in games on a great offensive team, the chance for 5-10 wins is there as well. Miller was drafted for Ks. I think in Florida he will be able to settle in. He is going to be in the middle of their rotation and therefore will not have added pressure. He has always been a good K guy, so that was the main purpose in me drafting him. I do think in that monster sized ball park he will end up with an era under 4 or one just slightly over.
Your first two picks were both players that were combo speed and power players. Was there a strategy behind this or did it just work out this way?
It is definitely a strategy of mine to always try and draft five tool players. They contribute in all categories so that always helps. However, this was more based on the fact that they were both there during my draft positions. Getting power hitters who can contribute in SB allows you to not have to waste a roster spot on speed specialist.
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Looking at your starting pitching, none of them play for very good teams. Do you foresee wins being a problem for this squad?
My starting pitching definitely looks to be a tad light in the wins category. When you draft starting pitching from Toronto, San Francisco, St. Louis and Pittsburgh those wins could most certainly be a struggle. I generally don't place that much emphasis on the "wins" category when drafting a team. I look for pitchers that I believe to be relatively low injury risks, have reasonable upsides and the potential to post decent ERA,WHIP and K rates. The draft is simply the beginning or starting point and without a doubt were this mock to be played out I would attempt to build in at least two to three starting pitchers to my bench. By carefully using your bench and scouring the waiver wire one can create a situation where the 10-12 win pitcher does and can carry a very good value.
You drafted outfielders with four of your first five picks. I know this is a strategy that you employ often. What are the benefits of this strategy? Do you see any weaknesses?
Since back in December I've been experimenting with what I like to call "My all Outfield, All the time Strategy". In a standard format, five outfielders are required and heading into the 2008 season the outfield is most certainly not overly deep. I've found that by shoring up the outfield early the opportunities are most certainly there to provide for what I believe is a solid and balanced team. In this draft, I drafted four of my first five picks as outfielders and still managed to have a solid first base in Carlos Pena, my middle infield consists of Mark Ellis and Kelly Johnson, with Adrian Beltre and Garrett Atkins at the corners. My pitching is relatively high risk, but at the same time should at least with the 3 closers be a mid-level staff and with the offense provide a good opportunity to be a contending team. The biggest potential problem that I believe can occur is over-reaching to fill the position. It is fine to work on developing a strategy, but one also has to be flexible enough within one's plans to be able to recognize better options when they become available.
Carlos Pena in round 6 could be a great value. What signs do you see that he can repeat/not repeat last year?
Going back to those early years as a Detroit Tiger, there have been few doubts as to the power potential of Carlos Pena. It was the low batting average that limited his potential playing time. Whether Pena will bat 280 with 40+ homeruns in 2008 certainly carries its fair share of concern, but he did show the ability to perform at that level in 2007. My personal take is that a 35 homerun, 250 batting average for 2008 is more likely. By surrounding Pena with the likes of my first five picks, Crawford,Ichiro,Atkins,Granderson and Hart, even a regression into the 250 batting average range has a rather diminished effect on my team batting average and those potential homerun's could be a huge plus. In this scenario a more than decent gamble.
Knox Bardeen – Crooked Pitch
The first thing that jumps out is that you only have five starting pitchers and three of them probably won’t accumulate a ton of strikeouts. Was this planned or a late round “oh shit”?
I wanted to jump out and grab a few studs to anchor my staff. After that I planned on taking a LIMA approach. During the season, if this league played out I would be very active on the waiver wire for more LIMA options. Hopefully, I’d be able to keep my ERA and WHIP low with middle relievers while still racking up wins. I surely won’t finish at the top of the K’s category, but I won’t do to poorly in the other four pitching stats.
Your team has an elite amount of power, but could struggle in the speed department. If we were playing this league out what moves would you make to balance this out?
The easy answer is trades. I imagine it would be quite easy to trade some of my power for speed later on. My draft strategy going in was to build a team based on power and to really master the outfield position. That strategy doesn’t come without shortcomings though, as I know I’ll have to use transactions to balance my team starting around mid-season.
You had drafted your entire outfield by round 11. Were there any players after round 11 that you wish you could have drafted had you had an available spot?
As I said earlier, it was my plan to grab outfielders early. Taking a look at what happened in the outfield position after the 11th round there are a few guys who I wouldn’t mind having on my team. Michel Bourne in the 13th round strikes me first. His speed and run scoring numbers will be great this season as he bats leadoff for the Astros. Jeremy Hermida in the 14th, while an injury risk, has a bunch of upside and could very well break out this season. I’ve been targeting him in a number of my other drafts. Willy Tavaras in the 16th would have been nice for the exact same reasons as Bourne would have been. With as much power as I drafted it would have been very easy to take a Bourne or a Tavaras who will only help in stolen bases and runs scored.
Kelly Pfleiger – Fantasy Gameday
Your rotation is very high risk/high reward with Lincecum, Burnett, and Bonderman. What do you expect from these three players? We’re you happy with your rotation?
Yes, I do have a high risk/high reward type of starting staff with Hamels, Lincecum, Burnett, Bonderman, and Arroyo. I firmly believe in chasing strikeouts and not wins. So I expect my staff to pile up strikeouts while not killing me in other areas. I do anticipate Lincecum being the best pitcher out of the ones that I selected. I am also expecting Burnett to be hurt at some point during the year, but provide solid performances when healthy. I am also anticipating Bonderman to not be as awful as he was last year, and an ERA closer to 4.00 is more likely then not. Yes I am happy with my staff, but would be looking towards some younger pitchers possibly getting a chance this year.
You drafted Joba Chamberlain in the 17th round. What are your expectations for Joba in 2008? How long do you think the Yankees will keep him in the bullpen?
How could I pass on such a high strikeout rate pitcher in the 17th round? Regardless of if he stays in middle relief all year, his high strikeout rate can help any team. I personally think that Joba will remain in the bullpen all year and replace Rivera at some point this season, or at the very least, pick up 5-10 saves spelling him during the year. Those would be cheap saves to acquire from a pitcher that will boost other areas of your pitching staff.
Kevin Youkilis is your starting first baseman (Rd 16). Was it your plan to wait this long to draft a first baseman? What was the strategy behind this?
No, I was not planning on waiting until round 16 to take my first baseman. Drafting Kevin Youkilis as my starting first baseman was an “oh crap” moment. I lost Derrek Lee, Nick Swisher, and Todd Helton along the way, but did not worry. Ryan Garko was taken way ahead of what I was willing to pay, and Adam LaRoche was taken the pick in front of me. I also missed out on Conor Jackson by one pick in the 21st round. So throughout the draft I was using plan B, C, D, and then the Oh Crap I better take someone plan.
Kevin Orris – MLB Front Office
There were many other options in the outfield available when you drafted Manny Ramirez (Round 4 Pick 2). Do you regret this pick? What lead you to draft him here?
Approaching this pick I was really thinking about Byrnes. I had quickly made a few changes to the MDC rankings before the draft and only had time to move a few players. I wanted to stick to the list as close as possible, which is the reasoning behind quite a few of my picks. Looking back I should have taken Byrnes, but I didn't do so. The Manny pick ended up killing the rest of my draft, at least how I see it. I am not a big fan of drafting towards the back this year, unless it’s with everyday people.
Between Roberts, Soriano, Pence, and Ellsbury you have plenty of speed. Do you feel you still have enough power? If we were going to play this league out what moves do you think you would make?
I'm not the biggest Howard fan, but since he fell to me at 11, I had to do it. I think I have enough power, but I could use more. It's definitely something I would look to add to during this season though. Thankfully this was only a mock draft. As far as drafting the speedy guys, Soriano is lethal in Wrigley in the current Cubs lineup and any player that can steal a few bases always helps. Roberts is a guy I really like playing 2B, especially if he is moved to Chicago. I love Pence this year with the Houston lineup, and he is good for a few steals, but some people overrate his speed. Ellsbury has outbreak potential, and if he did so, I would look into trading him during the season to add more power.
You didn’t draft your starting 3B until round 21. Are you satisfied with Blake as your starting 3B?
I love Chipper Jones in this years draft and really wanted him, but thought it might have been a little to early. Looking back, I should have taken him in the 4th round, but that didn't happen. Blake is okay at 3B, but there are a lot of better guys. 3B is pretty deep this year, and I needed power in the later rounds. Blake seemed like a good fit to help add some home runs.
Hopefully this will provide good insight into what the experts were thinking while they were making the picks. ADP is great, but understanding why a player was taken where he was is even more important. We’ll have a similar wrap-up from our Expert Auction Mock Draft in the next week or two.
