Greg Maddux: Analyzing Stats For Fantasy Baseball
At my other stomping ground I recently began a series of articles profiling different aspects of Greg Maddux’s storied career. With that in mind it just made sense to profile him from a fantasy point of view. Though this article will not directly focus on Maddux, the statistics discussed will be applied to him to show his true fantasy value.
ERA is often a large part of any fantasy league. Despite this, the statistic can vary from year to year for reasons other than decreasing/increasing talent levels. The primary reason can be attributed to the DIPS theory, by Voros McCracken, that pitchers generally have no control over what happens once a ball is put into play. Walks, hit batsmen, strikeouts, and even home runs are factors controlled by the pitcher but nothing else. To read Voros’ DIPS theory, click here.
Due to his research, it was determined that, just like W-L records, ERA can be effected by luck and not just skills; in this case, how solid the defense plays, where the balls are hit, etc. Tom Tango (www.tangotiger.net) invented a statistic called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that can help us understand how well a pitcher performed based strictly on the events and outcomes within his control. Tom’s formula for FIP is:
FIP = ((13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP) – 2*K) / IP) + 3.2
The 3.2 refers to a league factor used to make the FIP result look very similar to ERA. This similarity allows fans to easily relate the findings to a barometer instilled in fantasy leagues. I will use the 2004 season of Greg Maddux to show an example of FIP in action. In 2004, Greg went for 212.2 innings, giving up 35 home runs and 33 walks, while striking out 151 and hitting 9 batters. His ERA was 4.02 - the highest it had been since Maddux started his excellence in 1988. His FIP would be:
= ((13*35 + 3*(33+9) – 2*151) / 212.666) + 3.2
= ((455 + 126 – 302) / 212.666) + 3.2
= (279 / 212.666) + 3.2
= 4.51
Though Maddux posted an ERA slightly over 4.00, still respectable, his peripheral statistics were more indicative of a 4.51. Maddux had some luck on his side in 2004, which seemed to evaporate in the next three seasons. Here are Maddux’s ERA and FIP numbers from 2005, 2006, and 2007:
Over the last three seasons, his skill-based pitching was more indicative of ERA’s much lower than his actual posted ERA. A stat used by The Hardball Times is FIP-ERA, which does exactly what the title suggests – it subtracts the ERA from the FIP. If the number is negative then the pitcher was unlucky and the opposite can be said for luck. Maddux posted a +0.49 in 2004, but then posted –0.27, -0.43, and –0.57 in the following three seasons.
Carlos Zambrano and Dave Bush
In a previous article I compared the results of the Seidman SP Effectiveness System of Carlos Zambrano and Dave Bush. My system does not factor in ERA, but rather peripheral statistics, and found this comparison:
Basically, based on peripheral stats, lucky decisions, and the quality of games started, Zambrano has not been much better than Bush in the past two seasons. When we add in their 2007 ERA, FIP, and FIP-ERA, the comparison grows even stronger:
Not only have these guys been essentially equal, all things considered with peripheral stats, but their ERA’s are equally deceiving in opposite directions! Zambrano will get drafted much earlier than Bush and should not necessarily be valued as much. His luck will not continue for his entire career, just as Bush’s lack of luck will not continue forever.
2007 FIP-ERA Leaders
First, those whose ERA’s were much worse than they should have been:
1) Kip Wells, -0.97
2) Jeremy Bonderman, -0.78
3) Matt Belisle, -0.78
4) Jose Contreras, -0.74
5) Greg Maddux, -0.57
Contreras makes sense being here as his 2007 looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his seasons. I would fully expect him to post solid 2008 numbers mainly because his 2007 was just unlucky. Maddux is the only player on this list whose ERA was respectable coming in. The other four still had high FIP’s.
Next, those who got aided by luck:
1) Fausto Carmona, +0.99
2) Matt Chico, +0.90
3) Livan Hernandez, +0.85
4) Jeremy Guthrie, +0.83
5) Oliver Perez, +0.80
The odd thing about Carmona is that his ERA gets worse when the context of his actual skills are called into play, however, with my Adjusted W-L Record system, his W-L record gets better. Using regular W-L and ERA, Carmona was 19-8 with a 3.06, but using the adjusted numbers of Adj W-L and FIP, Carmona was 23-4 with a 4.05 FIP.
When trying to find pitchers to round out your rotation, use FIP over ERA, as well as my Adjusted W-L Record system over the regular W-L to find those whose skills greatly outweigh their luck or lack of luck.
ERA is often a large part of any fantasy league. Despite this, the statistic can vary from year to year for reasons other than decreasing/increasing talent levels. The primary reason can be attributed to the DIPS theory, by Voros McCracken, that pitchers generally have no control over what happens once a ball is put into play. Walks, hit batsmen, strikeouts, and even home runs are factors controlled by the pitcher but nothing else. To read Voros’ DIPS theory, click here.
Due to his research, it was determined that, just like W-L records, ERA can be effected by luck and not just skills; in this case, how solid the defense plays, where the balls are hit, etc. Tom Tango (www.tangotiger.net) invented a statistic called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that can help us understand how well a pitcher performed based strictly on the events and outcomes within his control. Tom’s formula for FIP is:
The 3.2 refers to a league factor used to make the FIP result look very similar to ERA. This similarity allows fans to easily relate the findings to a barometer instilled in fantasy leagues. I will use the 2004 season of Greg Maddux to show an example of FIP in action. In 2004, Greg went for 212.2 innings, giving up 35 home runs and 33 walks, while striking out 151 and hitting 9 batters. His ERA was 4.02 - the highest it had been since Maddux started his excellence in 1988. His FIP would be:
= ((13*35 + 3*(33+9) – 2*151) / 212.666) + 3.2
= ((455 + 126 – 302) / 212.666) + 3.2
= (279 / 212.666) + 3.2
= 4.51
Though Maddux posted an ERA slightly over 4.00, still respectable, his peripheral statistics were more indicative of a 4.51. Maddux had some luck on his side in 2004, which seemed to evaporate in the next three seasons. Here are Maddux’s ERA and FIP numbers from 2005, 2006, and 2007:
Over the last three seasons, his skill-based pitching was more indicative of ERA’s much lower than his actual posted ERA. A stat used by The Hardball Times is FIP-ERA, which does exactly what the title suggests – it subtracts the ERA from the FIP. If the number is negative then the pitcher was unlucky and the opposite can be said for luck. Maddux posted a +0.49 in 2004, but then posted –0.27, -0.43, and –0.57 in the following three seasons.
In a previous article I compared the results of the Seidman SP Effectiveness System of Carlos Zambrano and Dave Bush. My system does not factor in ERA, but rather peripheral statistics, and found this comparison:
Basically, based on peripheral stats, lucky decisions, and the quality of games started, Zambrano has not been much better than Bush in the past two seasons. When we add in their 2007 ERA, FIP, and FIP-ERA, the comparison grows even stronger:
Not only have these guys been essentially equal, all things considered with peripheral stats, but their ERA’s are equally deceiving in opposite directions! Zambrano will get drafted much earlier than Bush and should not necessarily be valued as much. His luck will not continue for his entire career, just as Bush’s lack of luck will not continue forever.
First, those whose ERA’s were much worse than they should have been:
1) Kip Wells, -0.97
2) Jeremy Bonderman, -0.78
3) Matt Belisle, -0.78
4) Jose Contreras, -0.74
5) Greg Maddux, -0.57
Contreras makes sense being here as his 2007 looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his seasons. I would fully expect him to post solid 2008 numbers mainly because his 2007 was just unlucky. Maddux is the only player on this list whose ERA was respectable coming in. The other four still had high FIP’s.
Next, those who got aided by luck:
1) Fausto Carmona, +0.99
2) Matt Chico, +0.90
3) Livan Hernandez, +0.85
4) Jeremy Guthrie, +0.83
5) Oliver Perez, +0.80
The odd thing about Carmona is that his ERA gets worse when the context of his actual skills are called into play, however, with my Adjusted W-L Record system, his W-L record gets better. Using regular W-L and ERA, Carmona was 19-8 with a 3.06, but using the adjusted numbers of Adj W-L and FIP, Carmona was 23-4 with a 4.05 FIP.
When trying to find pitchers to round out your rotation, use FIP over ERA, as well as my Adjusted W-L Record system over the regular W-L to find those whose skills greatly outweigh their luck or lack of luck.
