After Napoleon’s defeat in May of 1814 thousands of battle tested British ships were available for an attack on the United States. Their first offensive was via Lake Champlain which ended in September 1814. At the same time, the British were attacking through Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake Bay campaign was thwarted by the successful defense of Fort McHenry. Meanwhile, on the gulf coast, the British launched a third campaign to capture New Orleans. If the British could capture the key port city, they could control the Mississippi River Valley which would be a major bargaining chip in the war. On January 18th, the British retreated to Lake Borgne ending the Louisiana campaign. The Battle of New Orleans was the last major battle in the War of 1812. Ironically, the battle was fought after the two sides had already negotiated a peace treaty because word of the treaty had yet to reach Louisiana. The fabled three-pronged attack had failed. Nonetheless, the three-pronged attack remains a legitimate war tactic and today I bring to you another three-pronged effort: The Three-Pronged Attack on Fantasy Baseball.

We’ve reached the point in the fantasy baseball season where you’ve likely already drafted your team and are now thinking: What Next? Be patient my young Padawan Learner. We will get to that. As we have learned: History repeats itself. There is a lot we can learn from history. So, how did the United States defeat Britain’s three-pronged attack? On the night of December 23, United States Major General Andrew Jackson personally led an attack on the British camp that lasted into the early hours of December 24. Not only did he lead one attack, but he led three attacks. The United States defeated Britain’s three-pronged attack with, of course, a three-pronged attack.

The time between your draft and before you have a big enough sample size to truly analyze ability is a dangerous time for fantasy owners.

“Sample size, huh?”

I’ll get to that. Just understand that you’re as vulnerable as the British right now and your plan for victory is the three-pronged attack. And that brings me to the first step of our three-pronged attack:


PATIENCE

Every year fantasy owners get antsy when their stars are underperforming after the first week of the draft. Every league has one owner that drops a star player because he’s underperforming and if you’ve ever been lucky enough to be the first to the waiver wire, you understand that these stars usually bounce back and contribute the rest of the year for another team. Here’s where sample size comes into play. You can’t get a true feeling for a player until after about 75-100 at bats. Anything less than that and the statistics could just be an aberration. Consider the following:

Player A has 56 at bats over the course of 14 games to start the year. In each of the games he gets one hit. His batting average for the first 14 games of the year is .250. Player B also has 56 at bats over the course of 14 games. In 12 out of the 14 games he gets one hit. In the other two games he gets three hits each. Over the course of the first 14 games of the year Player B has a batting average of .321. Player B now has an exceptional average while Player A is looking like any player you can find on the waiver wire. In 12 out of the 14 games, these players brought identical value, yet one player is looking like an All-Star and the other like a bench warmer.

In one of Player A’s at bats the count was 2-2 and player A swung, but the third base umpire ruled that he checked the swing. He went on to get a hit on the next pitch. What if the umpire had ruled that he had swung and struck out? He’s now staring the Mendoza line square in the eyes with an average of .232. That’s right: One pitch was an 18 point difference in his batting average.

I think you understand the point: Wait until there’s a solid sample size before deciding what to do with your star players. You spent a long time preparing your draft strategy; don’t throw it away with one click of your mouse.

And that brings us to our second prong:

RESEARCH

Contrary to popular belief, the research does not end once the draft ends. Knowing how your players are performing is not enough. You need to know each of your opponent’s rosters as well as you know your own roster. Which owner is short on saves? Who has an excess of steals? Which players are expendable to which owners? When Ben Sheets gets injured (and you know he will!) who has an excess starter to trade to you? When you need to make a trade, knowing your opponents needs is the most important factor in finding a good trade partner.

Too many owners make the mistake of trading for the sake of “mixing up the roster” when they start performing poorly. When you make a trade there must always be a target in mind. Don’t trade to simply upgrade a position. Trade because you need to add speed, or you’re one power hitter away from competing. The most common questions I get from fantasy owners involve questions such as, “should I trade player A for player B?” My answer is always: It depends on you’re team needs.

Imagine that you’re planning for a camping trip. You go to the store to buy supplies and you purchase a tent. Once you’ve bought your tent you go home and a week later, right before you’re going to leave, you realize you need to buy fire wood. You return to the store only to find that they don’t have any firewood. Instead, you decide to buy another tent. You head out into the woods and once you get there you have two tents, but one sits unused. Meanwhile you are still freezing because you have no fire wood. Fantasy Baseball is the same way.

“Huh?”

Must I explain everything? The idea of excess is relevant to all walks of life. There is no point in owning two tents when you still need firewood just like there is no point to, in fantasy baseball, having more power than you need if you still don’t have any speed. Hopefully you can follow my strange anecdote because the underlying idea is supremely important.

ACTION

Action is defined as an act that one consciously wills and that may be characterized by physical or mental activity. As in: I’m hoping for constructive action by my landlord. In this case, you are the landlord and your players are your tenants. Letting your building (team) rot towards the bottom of the league (I don’t have a clever representation for this) is no one’s fault but your own. Action is required to maintain your team. It’s as simple as that. You must check your team as often as possible. Being the first to the waiver wire on the day that a star prospect gets called up can make all the difference. Many of my league-mates found that out last year—the hard way—the day that Ryan Braun was called up.

The third prong, action, may seem unimportant, but it is necessary for victory. Minor team maintenance can make a world of a difference. Leaving an injured player on your active roster is equivalent to forfeiting a pick in the middle of your draft. Would you ever pass on your eight round pick? I don’t think so. Yet, every year many owners make that exact mistake.


Each prong in this attack is equally important. What would a three-prong attack be with only two prongs? Many owners interest tails off after the draft, especially once football preparation begins, but remember all that time you spent preparing for the draft and ask yourself: Why would I waste all that effort with one simple mistake. Following this three pronged attack will not only help you avoid the mistakes, but it will also lead you to victory. If it worked for future president Andrew Jackson, it can work for you to.