Does Spring Training Matter?
With the regular season upon us and Spring Training a thing of the past, fans everywhere are asking the question: “What do the Spring Training results mean?” To the average fan, Spring Training stats don’t mean very much. The best record in Spring Training last year belonged to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the New York Mets. Did that predict in-season success? No. However, that doesn’t mean spring training should be outright dismissed. A couple of year’s ago John Dewan gave use this little tidbit of information:
A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.
As a fantasy owner this is extremely important. When you’re looking for sleepers at the end of the draft this is an important idea to keep in mind. The players in the chart below (click to enlarge) are those who fit the profile from the above statement.
However, looking back at previous years, we find that this rule is only effective to a marginal degree. We find that there is about a 50% correlation between spring training success (as defined by John Dewan) and regular season success. While certainly better than a shot in the dark, the rule is still not all that helpful. However, off special interest is the discovery that there is a higher correlation for success among younger players than older players. So, what players from the above chart are poised for success? It’s hard to tell, but here’s a couple who look primed for some sort of improvement:
Chris Snyder, C, Diamondbacks – Snyder has always had the talent, but he hasn’t always had the opportunity. This year he should earn a significant amount of playing time and can be a valuable #2 catcher on fantasy teams. In a standard format (2 Catchers) if he’s still on the waiver wire, he’s worth a look.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland – Sizemore has talent, no one’s denying that. However, some believe he hasn’t shown enough power to warrant a high draft pick in fantasy leagues. Sizemore has always hit for a large amount of doubles. If he can translate those doubles into homeruns (as many players do as they get older), he can become a fantasy baseball stud.
B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay – Many fantasy owners have written off Upton as primed to regress a little in his second full season, but the numbers say otherwise. He’ll no longer have to worry about which position he’ll be playing in the field which means a bigger focus on his hitting. He’s primed for a big season.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit – Many fantasy owners are shying away from him due to his recent injury. However, the injury represents a great buy-low opportunity. He already broke out last year, but the numbers suggest his best season is yet to come.
Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City - By now you have probably read a lot about Butler. Yahoo! did a huge feature on him not long ago. What’s important to realize about Butler is that unless he earns eligibility at another position, he’ll need a huge season in order to provide value from your UTIL position. Luckily for his owners, the numbers point towards a huge season.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas – Everyone knows Hamilton’s story. This isn’t the first time I’ve written about him and it probably won’t be the last. A number of experts are down on Hamilton saying he won’t be able to live up to the hype, but the numbers say otherwise. Hamilton makes a great third or fourth outfielder.
Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles NL – Ethier has two things going for him: 1) He finally has the opportunity. 2) He has the numbers in his favor. Ethier was recently awarded the right field job over Juan Pierre and he’s having an excellent spring. He could still be a free agent in your league. If he is, give him a spot.
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York AL – Cano’s power numbers have been trending up ever since he broke into the majors. He had 19 homeruns last year and is likely to top 20this year. Make Cano your second baseman this year and you won’t be disappointed.
As with most fantasy baseball rules there are always exceptions. This rule is just another guideline for finding sleepers. Keep in mind that this is in no way a guarantee for greatness, but it certainly improves a player’s chances.
A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.
As a fantasy owner this is extremely important. When you’re looking for sleepers at the end of the draft this is an important idea to keep in mind. The players in the chart below (click to enlarge) are those who fit the profile from the above statement.
However, looking back at previous years, we find that this rule is only effective to a marginal degree. We find that there is about a 50% correlation between spring training success (as defined by John Dewan) and regular season success. While certainly better than a shot in the dark, the rule is still not all that helpful. However, off special interest is the discovery that there is a higher correlation for success among younger players than older players. So, what players from the above chart are poised for success? It’s hard to tell, but here’s a couple who look primed for some sort of improvement:
Chris Snyder, C, Diamondbacks – Snyder has always had the talent, but he hasn’t always had the opportunity. This year he should earn a significant amount of playing time and can be a valuable #2 catcher on fantasy teams. In a standard format (2 Catchers) if he’s still on the waiver wire, he’s worth a look.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland – Sizemore has talent, no one’s denying that. However, some believe he hasn’t shown enough power to warrant a high draft pick in fantasy leagues. Sizemore has always hit for a large amount of doubles. If he can translate those doubles into homeruns (as many players do as they get older), he can become a fantasy baseball stud.
B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay – Many fantasy owners have written off Upton as primed to regress a little in his second full season, but the numbers say otherwise. He’ll no longer have to worry about which position he’ll be playing in the field which means a bigger focus on his hitting. He’s primed for a big season.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit – Many fantasy owners are shying away from him due to his recent injury. However, the injury represents a great buy-low opportunity. He already broke out last year, but the numbers suggest his best season is yet to come.
Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City - By now you have probably read a lot about Butler. Yahoo! did a huge feature on him not long ago. What’s important to realize about Butler is that unless he earns eligibility at another position, he’ll need a huge season in order to provide value from your UTIL position. Luckily for his owners, the numbers point towards a huge season.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas – Everyone knows Hamilton’s story. This isn’t the first time I’ve written about him and it probably won’t be the last. A number of experts are down on Hamilton saying he won’t be able to live up to the hype, but the numbers say otherwise. Hamilton makes a great third or fourth outfielder.
Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles NL – Ethier has two things going for him: 1) He finally has the opportunity. 2) He has the numbers in his favor. Ethier was recently awarded the right field job over Juan Pierre and he’s having an excellent spring. He could still be a free agent in your league. If he is, give him a spot.
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York AL – Cano’s power numbers have been trending up ever since he broke into the majors. He had 19 homeruns last year and is likely to top 20this year. Make Cano your second baseman this year and you won’t be disappointed.
As with most fantasy baseball rules there are always exceptions. This rule is just another guideline for finding sleepers. Keep in mind that this is in no way a guarantee for greatness, but it certainly improves a player’s chances.
