The Day in Review

With the conclusion of the late games tonight, the month of April will have drawn to a close. There have definitely been some surprises, as always, but in the end all I can say is - it's your last chance to pick up Ichiro! Here are the headlines from the day.

Injury Watch

• Phil Hughes joined A-Rod and Posada on the Yankee DL with an oblique strain. Unfortunately, it's still too early for Joba Chamberlain to join the rotation.
• Chad Cordero will be out 4-6 weeks but will not need surgery for the tear in his latissimus dorsi.
• No word yet on the nature of Tulowitzki's injury, but a DL stint seems probable. Maybe that will right the ship for the Rockies shortstop, who has struggled so far this year.
• John Smoltz says that he will pitch out of the bullpen when he returns. No word on whether he or Bobby Cox (who hasn't said anything about the issue) has the final say. 

Notable Performances

• Geovanny Soto continues to live up to the preseason hype, hitting another 2 HR as the Cubs routed the Brewers.
• Josh Hamilton hit a grand slam. He now has an extra base hit and RBI in 5 straight games, with no strikeouts in those five.
• Chase Utley hit another HR to give him 11 for the month of April. It's hard to imagine him slowing down, because the additions of Rollins, Victorino, and Howard (who isn't hurt but can't hit anything right now) to the Philadelphia lineup can only help him.
• Chad Billingsley threw well tonight, as did Andy Sonnanstine. Sonnanstine's performance may keep him in the rotation after Scott Kazmir returns.

And, of course, Wladimir Balentin and Jeff Clement were both called up by Seattle. Clement could get some appearances and quickly pick up catcher eligibility, while Balentin hit a homer in his debut tonight. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

Buyers and Sellers: NL East

I realized that reviewing all of the AL teams would lead to a lot of "This team doesn't have a lot of holes while this team is, literally, one big hole", but in the NL, there isn't as much of a dichotomy. That is to say, the AL East goes by "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times", while the NL East goes by "It was, well, about time"--didn't expect a Dickens reference in a Fantasy Baseball editorial influenced by economics?

Florida (15-10): Now, I'm happy for Hendrickson's early season success, and I'm sure Andrew Miller will one day be a top-end starter, but there is no way the Marlins compete this year. Hermida and Willingham will likely stay, but I could see Gonzalez going to a contender as a fourth outfielder with veteran leadership. Also, Gregg will get shipped out as the most expensive player on the team, and likely end up in middle relief.

New York (13-11): The Mets didn't do much last season trade-wise (though I liked the Castillo acquisition), but they will probably try to grab some corner outfield help. The Pirates make sense as trade partners, with a Nady deal most likely, but the Pirates are so bad that they may move Bay for... Matt Morris (UPDATE: This is now more likely due to Morris's retirement). If Alou is healthy, a deal makes less sense, especially with Church performing.

Philadelphia (14-12): Philly will be competitive, but the Pedro Feliz signing at least distracts from the teams biggest offensive weakness. A backup catcher might help since Ruiz hasn't been great so far, but its the players who throw the ball that are the biggest weakness. I can't think of a likely pitcher, but I can't seem them mustering the price for Burnett.

Atlanta (12-13): I doubt the Braves will sell anyone even if they are pretty far out, but if so Teixeira seems the most likely. Their farm system was spent last year on the very same name, so if they are buyers it won't be anything major unless they send Lillibridge out since he's blocked by Escobar.

Washington (9-17): I believe the Nats will turn it around, but the division is too deep for them to make a difference now. Jon Rauch will have more value than Chad Cordero, but it will be the latter that they'll try to move for prospects. They have some depth at shortstop, and Felipe Lopez is probably worth moving if someone needs a middle infielder, and someone will.

So if you haven't noticed, this will likely take shape once we analyze more divisions. Next up, the AL Central

The Day in Review

Well the night is young, but the major news has already happened, so lets get straight to it...

Injury News

• Alex Rodriguez is hitting the DL. Personally, and as an A-Rod owner, I'm not that upset since I'd rather the injury be addressed now rather than allowed to linger. However, I consider the 2007-MVP worth moving if you can get a decent offer. Think late-first round talent among a larger deal.
• John Smoltz is also on the DL, and will be out for "a few weeks". I think it will be longer than this, and the extent of the inflammation could linger after a return. I'd advise trading him if you can, but if not you still have to wait him out because there's too much potential.
• Posada is out for a while, evidenced by the fact that its good news that he won't miss the entire season. Yesterday Pete advised grabbing Doumit, and I agree--I'd take the Pirates backstop over hyped prospect Saltalamacchia (and its not a coincidence that "over" and "hyped" are next to each other).
• Chad Cordero is also heading back to the DL, further decreasing his trade value as far as the Nats must be concerned. Rauch is worth grabbing in the meantime.
• Tulowitzki left the game with a quad strain, and also might be headed to the DL. Hopefully any rest will give him a time to straighten out his game, since he's epitomizing a sophomore slump.

Notable Performances

• Roy Halladay threw his fourth consecutive CG, but only won the first. I don't like how the Jays are using their ace and recently traded him in the only league I have him.
• Out west, two prospects are catching my eye. First, the obvious--Max Scherzer. After Gonzalez threw a poor 2.2 innings, Scherzer came in and struck out every other batter he faced, so far not giving up a hit. A rotation spot could be in order. The other player is Brandon Wood, who I've hoped could earn the SS spot once Kendrick forces Figgins back to third. Once one of the best prospects in the game, Wood has been quiet for more than a year now, but is worth watching.
• Gary Sheffield hit a homer today, which is important since he was coming dangerously close to being droppable. From what I've read of scouting reports, he can still turn on fastballs, so I'm regarding the slow start as, just that, a slow start.
• Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Reyes had been struggling, but after a 3-4, HR, and 3 RBI game for the former and a 3-3, 3 BB game for the latter, the tides seem to be turning.

If anything else happens, I'll make sure to make a note of it. Until then, that's what you need to know about the day.

Liquidity: How Trade-able is Your Team?

One economic concept we have yet to bring up is that of liquidity. An asset is considered liquid if it can be easily turned into cash (therefore, a checking account is more liquid than a savings account, because it's easier to withdraw money from an ATM than to go into a bank and get money from a savings account). In fantasy baseball, I would call players "liquid" if you can easily turn them into other players. What determines how easy it is to trade another player?

First is name recognition. Along with this is expectations. If a player has good name recognition, because of a long career, or high expectations, because they are widely written about among the fantasy community, they will be easier to trade. One great example of this would be Nick Markakis - last year, Brandon Funston (Yahoo! fantasy analyst) wrote about Markakis all year, and he was much easier to trade because of it. On the other hand, Alex Rios sticks out in my mind as a player who gets very little recognition and is actually harder to trade because of it.

Injury risk is another major factor. Age is a big part of this. I own Chipper Jones and David Wright in a ten-team league. Jones has been filling my utility spot, but unfortunately, he's not very liquid. The other players in the league know he's old (unlikely to have a career year) and an injury risk (already has a strained quad), so they're not willing to pick him up. Wright would be much more trade-able, but right now I'm not ready to pursue that option.

Finally, I would say position also affects liquidity. Catchers are very liquid, because if you don't own Russell Martin or Victor Martinez you could get a very tangible upgrade. Same with second base if you don't own Utley. However, I wouldn't consider first base very liquid at all. Someone who has David Ortiz is probably less likely to trade for Mark Teixeira because they just don't stand to gain all that much. Pitcher is probably the most liquid position - because everyone starts so many so regularly, every owner is looking to pick up more pitching.

Those are my main factors considering liquidity. I would use this analysis to target players that aren't liquid and see if the owner wants to play ball (the owner of Chipper Jones may be so surprised to get an offer for him that you can get him for cheap, for example). Do you think I missed any important factors concerning liquidity?

The Day in Review

Hey all, just got back from trading Josh Hamilton for Mariano Rivera and Nate McClouth. Nothing like holding out until you get a good deal! Here are the top stories from Sunday and Monday:

Injury Watch:

• Jorge Posada hit the DL Monday with a shoulder tear. No big surprise here; age is finally catching up to him, and hopefully you didn't pay for his career year last season. My advice: avoid his replacement, Jose Molina (unlike one owner I know), and look to pick up Ryan Doumit, who is somehow still unowned in many leagues.
• Hank Blalock has a partial tear in his hamstring, while teammate Michael Young has a slight tear. I liked Blalock but another injury for him is awful. Young, meanwhile, had been quietly productive. Hopefully this isn't a sign of an imminent drop-off for him.
• A-Rod re-aggravated his nagging quad injury. I have a bad feeling that this could be a recurring story for him; think Pujols last season, where he never was able to shake the pain. Maybe 15 days off now would just be better for him - too bad the Yankees can't afford it with Posada out.
• John Smoltz is going to skip a start with shoulder soreness. Time may finally be catching up with the ageless wonder; I feel bad about jinxing him by touting him early.
• Alfonso Soriano will be back in the Cubs starting lineup, batting leadoff, on Thursday. Mike Lowell (Tuesday), Scott Kazmir (sometime this weekend), and Jimmy Rollins (May 5) are also on pace for returns.

Notable Performances:

• Rotoworld likes Rick Ankiel to be starting a hot streak. He's been walking a lot, meaning he's seeing the ball well, and he hit a solo shot last night. He plays Cincinnati and the Cubs at home this week, but goes to Colorado and Milwaukee next week. Ankiel is bound to hit well in at least one of those series.
• Justin Verlander continues to pitch poorly. While CC Sabathia appears to have turned a corner, Verlander is still completely ineffective, even while hitting 97 mph against the Angels. 
• Brandon Phillips and Brandon Webb are both earning their high draft picks; the former is hitting .280 with 5 HR and 4 SB after homering twice on Sunday, while the latter already has six wins. 
• Josh Beckett looked good with 13 strikeouts on Sunday. As long as he's healthy, he's a great pitcher - personally, though, I just don't trust him to stay healthy for an entire season after all the innings he logged in winning the Series last year.

Don't know where to file this, maybe under "Waste of Money," but Barry Zito is headed to the Giant bullpen. You shouldn't have owned him, anyway. Relief pitchers worth owning include Bill Bray (CIN) and Max Scherzer (ARI), top prospects who were just called up and should be playing big roles fairly soon. Finally, Chone Figgins may be on his way to picking up 2B eligibility, if Howie Kendrick's return takes a little longer.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Buyers and Sellers: AL East

I've wanted to put up something more interactive, and since playing GM is an enjoyable pastime for most Fantasy Baseball enthusiasts, lets start the speculation. It is almost the end of the first month, and while some teams are probably overperforming or underperforming, we are about a quarter of the way till the trade deadline. Players in AL-only or NL-only teams need to know as soon as they can which of their stars might be lost to a deadline deal, or which players they might want to hold their waiver out for. Starting with the AL East, lets look at real baseball so far...

Tampa Bay (14-11): This one looks interesting, because the surplus of prospects and the win-now attitude, in important conjunction with the  winning now reality, points to the Rays as buyers come July 31st. I still think Barry Bonds makes sense at DH, but they've been explicit about not wanting the baggage (apparently, they are okay with the baggage of failing to have a winning season, ever). A veteran pitcher makes sense, but the one-year rentals for RF don't seem to fit the team's needs. 

Baltimore (14-11): Why do I think Tampa is for real and Baltimore is not? Well, for starters (pun intended) their rotation is about one-man deep, and Guthrie isn't really "ace" material. Luke Scott (if only for his age), Brian Roberts (if only for his value), and Ramon Hernandez (if only for catcher scarcity) are likely gone, with only Roberts holding a full time job on a contender. If he does go, it should be to a National League team--the Cubs were the rumored destination all summer--and this is worth monitoring in an NL/AL-only league. As far as pitching goes, George Sherrill is the only relevant player who will probably be shipped off, becoming middle relief. As likely as this seems, its probably best to trade the Orioles' closer in early July to whoever is desperate for saves.

Boston (15-12): I think it's a safe bet to assume that the Red Sox will look to move Coco Crisp for bullpen help, and I expect them to be in the Huston Street sweepstakes. From the same Athletics team, a Keith Foulke reunion is plausible. However, the Red Sox don't have that many holes, and the best model for this year is likely the Gagne-acquisition of last, looking only for middle relief.

New York (13-13): The Yankees have internal options at pitcher (Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa... obviously I'm talking about Joba Chamberlain) once Pettitte or Mussina wear down, or Hughes/Kennedy can't handle a full season. They have so many options at first, I can't see a deadline move unless they go all-out and push for Teixeira to sign him long term. It's possible, especially if Smoltz goes down and the Braves have to rely on Hampton/Glavine to stay healthy, but otherwise I can't see the Braves that far out of the race.

Toronto (11-15): Toronto really can't compete this year, so they will likely be sellers. The young pitching core should hold up (McGowan, Marcum), but they could definitely try to move bullpen help or A.J. Burnett. Burnett in the National League would be a force, possible as much of an impact player as Brian Roberts in fantasy leagues. Accardo and Ryan could go, with the former much more likely, but ending up in middle relief.

So who do you think is going to take a hike in mid-summer?

The Day in Review

If you've noticed the recent scarcity of editorials, do not fret. Next week Pete will be in charge of the blog and has all the time in the world, and the week after I will be done with the year, and ready to scour fangraph after fangraph for the next Alex Rodriguez. Okay, maybe that's a bit optimistic, but it was around this time last year that Ryan Braun came up and performed better than anyone in the league (tell that to his fielding coach) for the rest of the year. With further adieu, the day in review...

Injury News

• If you owned Nomar Garciaparra, you are living in the past. In the future, he will be on the DL for at least 15 day, and likely on the pine for most of the season.
• I haven't been a big fan of Micah Owings, but unfortunately the young hurler won't be able to exceed my expectations due to a right ankle injury. However, this is important if the Diamondbacks decide to call up Max Scherzer, who has been putting up Lincecum-esque numbers so far in the minors.
• Ortiz and Chipper are day-to-day, and as injury prone as the two have shown to be in the past couple seasons I don't think either injury is a serious one. 

Notable Performances

• Former DL'd Mariners Bedard and Putz both pitched tonight. Bedard improved his record to 2-0 going 6 scoreless with 4 K's. Putz almost blew it, giving up 2 hits and 3 walks that resulted in 2 runs. I haven't yet seen footage, but hopefully Bedard can stay healthy.
• I'd just like to point out that Zambrano has been a legitimate ace. He was ranked far too low this offseason and now sports a 4-1 record with a 2.21 ERA. This from a guy who started terribly last season. However, he was lucky that many of his walks led to double plays, and this luck could run out.
• Lance Berkman is really responding to the even year, smacking his 7th and 8th homers on the night. It'd be nice if they weren't both solo shots, but you take what you can get.
• Jose Reyes has been outright cold, going a full week since a 2-hit game, actually only hitting 2 hits over that entire span (2-26). Its ugly, but the guy has got to be a buy low. Remember how David Wright started last season, with all the commentary on homerun derby and his second half? 

I can't help but notice that drafting a third basemen early this year seems ridiculous when you look at all the quality bats at the hot corner. But this is a subject of more dedicated conjecture, and for now, thats what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Not much new today, so I'll run you through the few headlines...

Injury News

• Carlos Gomez has started strong but might miss some time with a strained hamstring. His replacement might be worth starting if you're in a very deep league, but otherwise some speedster ought to be in your free agency while Gomez is out.
• A-Rod is back, but didn't do much. At least he's back in the lineup.

Notable Performances

• In a true win-now move (just kidding), the Rangers called up Saltalamacchia. MLBTradeRumors recently pointed out that Texas should be sellers at the deadline, so I expect they are grooming their replacement if Laird leaves.
• On the other hand, Francisco Liriano is going back to the minors. I just don't see him having fantasy relevance for at least a year, if ever. 
• Yovani Gallardo pitched seven scoreless and didn't get the win. Apparently the Marlins pitching was too much for his supporting cast.
• Lyle Overbay homered for the first time this year, and I just have a gut-feeling he's going to show some power in the weeks to come. He's capable of a 20 HR, 80 RBI season in spurts, so if you get him when he's on a spurt he could be valuable.
• The Mariners tied up Johjima for three more years, and I wonder if they will be buyers around the deadline. I'm dreaming of a Konerko for Clement + others deal, and years of Clement with catcher eligibility at U.S. Cellular. Always fun to pretend your a GM, especially for the White Sox since the competition ain't bad.
• Jonathan Sanchez has been missing bats, and put up a gem tonight against Cinci (8 IP, 0 runs, 10 Ks). He's worth a chance if your in need of pitching.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Hey all. I owe you an apology for the lack of a summary post yesterday. The biggest news is Brian Fuentes regaining the closer's role in Colorado. The three-time All-Star deserves an immediate add in all formats. Don't sell on Manny Corpas quite yet, though; you never know what could happen to either one.

Injury Watch

• Derek Lowe left his start with elbow tightness but should be fine. Any injury here, he is a marginal pitcher in most leagues and wouldn't really be worth a DL-spot. 
• Exact same analysis for Carlos Silva, except he's less valuable than Lowe in my opinion and his was a thigh injury.
• Jimmy Rollins apparently was scheduled to take batting practice Thursday, meaning that his ankle is not broken.
• Dice-K Matsuzaka has the flu. The Sox don't want him in the clubhouse if he's contagious, but apparently it's been going around. He shouldn't miss significant time.
• Carlos Guillen is expected to miss one more game with a bruised leg, while Jacque Jones is day-to-day with a knee contusion for the banged-up Tigers. 
• Long-term injury update: Mike Gonzalez is well ahead of schedule. No word on whether this is because nobody in Atlanta seems to be able to hold the ninth inning job, but I've heard a May return is possible for Gonzo.

Notable Performances

• Cliff Lee threw a 3-hit shutout for Cleveland. He's had a surprising return to 2006 form.
• Albert Pujols has reached base at a .525 clip and has yet to go without getting on base in any game this season.
• Lance Berkman, for those who haven't seen, has four steals to go with his impressive numbers across the board. Zach pointed out a while back that he has the strange statistical discrepancy of hitting significantly better in even years, and it looks like he's sticking to that so far.
•  Zach called Francisco Liriano! His control was awful against Oakland and he'll probably be asked to work out those problems in the minor leagues.
• Greg Maddux threw a good game Wednesday, but Trevor Hoffman failed to seal the deal. Still, it's good to see him recovering from his last terrible outing.
• Rotoworld is down on Daniel Cabrera because, well, he's Daniel Cabrera. But the guy has put together three straight quality starts and frankly, does have a lot of potential. I'm just saying...

Frank Thomas is back in business, hitting in Oakland, and I still think he's very own-able in a utility spot. Again, sorry for the delay in the posts. That's what you need to know about the day.

The Injured

About a week ago, Pete posted an interesting thread about what it takes for a player to acquire the title "oft-injured". With several first round players down with injuries, its worth exploring who is worth trading and who is worth holding, because even an injured player with potential (ex. Pedro Martinez last year) is valuable trade bait. So who has gone down so far?

Alfonso Soriano: You all know my infatuation with the slugger, but I'm hesitant to write off this injury. While it isn't as severe as last year's quad injury, his legs getting banged up really diminish his value. While 35-20 is still a real possibility, it will come with a .280-.290 average, and guys like Alex Rios or Carlos Lee should improve on those numbers. The fact is, if someone still sees Soriano as a significant upgrade to guys you expect to go 30-20, you should cash in on the profits they'll throw in for the switch.

Jimmy Rollins: I maintained the the Phillies speedster was overrated this season, and while he was performing decently before the injury the slight break in his ankle will really hurt him. I'm a fan of Furcal and think that he's solid fifth round talent that went later, so if you can trade Rollins for Furcal and a significant upgrade elsewhere, consider it. Beyond runs, both players should hit around .300 with 15-20 HRs and 30+ steals.

Howie Kendrick: I'm cynical here, because Kendrick was overrated except for the notes from his coaches that they'd let him steal upwards of 30 bags. With a hamstring injury, that number is way lower, and he's no better than Aaron Hill going forward.

Alex Rodriguez: He's not on the DL, but A-Rod has been missing games and there is speculation he could miss more. Don't be concerned though, as last years MVP should be able to return to form. I'm reminded of Pujols injury a couple years back, where he left as the best player, then came back a couple weeks later and ripped the ball.

Erik Bedard: After the move to Safeco, Bedard should have provided Webb and Beckett type value, but so far hasn't lived up to those expectations (nor has Beckett, ironically). I think that he is one of those "oft-injured" guys, and drafted him on the premise that his rest toward the end of last season should limit him to only one DL stint. I expect more to come, but when he's healthy he should still be a good pitcher who just experienced a slow start.

John Lackey: All signs point to go on Lackey, and with the Angels starting to hit the ball he could be a legitimate ace on return. If he was drafted as a team's second pitcher, you might be able to grab him while he's still relatively cheap. Try to.

Scott Kazmir: I'm not looking forward to Kazmir's first return back against Boston, but after that he should better adjust to major league games. His rehab has gone smoothly, and I have a lot of confidence that he will come back and pitch well. 

So there are the guys that could make big impacts on their returns. Does anyone have any others that they think need mentioned?

How To Handle Imports

I've been thinking a lot about hockey, my other favorite sport, and specifically the fact that most hockey players imported from other countries (I'm thinking specifically of Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin last season) start strong but struggle because the American season is more demanding than anything they had ever trained for or played in before. So I went to the numbers, mostly to give a recommendation on what to expect from Kosuke Fukodome and Hiroki Kuroda at season's end. Here's what I found:

Hitters: I went to the most memorable of Fukudome's predecessors in order, starting - of course - with Ichiro. He came to America in 2001 and was a national sensation, hitting .350 and slugging .457. He hit 8 HR, drove in 69 runs, scored 127 runs, and stole 56 bases. Since then, he's been a great player, but he's never stolen more bases, scored more runs, driven in more runs, or hit for a higher slugging percentage (and he's only bested the average once and the HR thrice). He has been a great player since, but his first season was actually his career best in just about every category. Hideki Matsui, the next sensation, had his worst season in his first year in. His OPS+ was 15 points lower than his next-worst year, and his power numbers were way down from other years. Kazuo Matsui, he of the same last name, played better in his first year here than in the next two. He finally got untracked in Colorado last year. Kenji Johjima only has two full seasons catching in Seattle, but each offensive statistic was a little worse in 2007 than it was in 2006. 

What does all this mean for Fukudome? Well, unfortunately, it means there isn't a great trend to follow. But I see Hideki Matsui as a different type of player than Ichiro, Kaz, or Johjima, because his game was based on hitting for power. Fukudome seems to compare in playing styles with Ichiro, and I think he could easily hit well for an entire season. 

Pitchers:  The classic pitcher case is Hideo Nomo, who came over all the way back in 1995. He took baseball by storm with his unusual delivery, and like Ichiro, he never equaled his 2.54 ERA or 236 strikeouts, but he had excellent seasons in his career. There isn't as much data on pitchers; I want to look at Dice-K but he's only been here a year. Takashi Saito, in two years, has experienced two successful seasons. Though his strikeouts went down in year two, his ERA also went down by .50, so I can't call one season much better than the other.

What does this all mean for Kuroda? Very little. I'd love to say he will imitate Nomo's success in his first year, but I think much of it was due to the fact that US hitters had never seen Japanese pitchers before. In the NL West, where most hitters have faced Takashi Saito, Kuroda will derive little of that advantage.

So, in the end, what I've found may not seem like much. Returning to my gut-check feeling, I like Fukudome to keep hitting well all year. He's in a great lineup that should allow him to see good pitches all season long, the warm weather can only help a guy whose game is based on speed, and I think he's shown in the very small sample that is this season that he will have no trouble figuring out American pitching. Training and endurance, the main issue for "imports" in other sports, seems to be a non-factor for Asian ballplayers coming to America. As for Kuroda, I don't expect him to reach Nomo-like success. He's a little tougher to predict, though the same statement on endurance applies. Hopefully, in a few more years, the picture will expand and I can make better predictions. Until then, treat them like typical players. Watch for injuries, bench them during slumps, but look for them to have excellent seasons at year's end.

The Day in Review

John Smoltz, one of the most underappreciated fantasy ace, notched his 3,000 strikeout tonight and I for one feel privileged to see him play. He's still an injury risk, but less so than many starters (Kazmir, Bedard, any pitcher on my Yahoo! team) and if he's pitching this well now I don't see any reason to doubt him due to his age through the rest of the season. Who was injured?

Injury News

• Speculation continues as to whether A-Rod will avoid a DL stint. At this point, its the difference of a week, since it will be retroactive and it seems the Yankees will handle as they did with Jeter's early season woes. 
• Jake Westbrook hit the DL today, but because the injury wasn't noticed in a game its expected to be minor. If Aaron Laffey is called up, try to spot the start against Seattle or Kansas City, but not the Yankees.
• I'm starting to lose faith in Beckett's ability to stay healthy. Something about the huge workload last season should have tipped fantasy owners, though I must admit I was duped.
• Rotoworld makes an astute point about Pujols's inning at second--if his shoulder was healthy, he would be at third. More on this later...

Notable Performances

• Sabathia pitched a gem, lowering his ERA to 10.13. How often do you hear that about any pitcher? I haven't seen the footage, but if his arm is coming through the slot a couple inches higher, then he should be his usual self.
• Ted Lilly is the second Cub (the other being Rich Hill) to find himself finally. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury had two homeruns tonight, and while I think he has the talent to be a big leaguer for years to come, I expect a two-dinger night is going to be a rarity. 
• The Indians put up 15 points and Pronks went 0-4. This kind of thing happens (remember Michael Young 0-RBI'ing in the Texas Chainsaw Massacre last year?) but it's still disappointing. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

It's really been a quiet day in fantasy baseball. Here are the factoids I scrounged together:

Injury Watch:

• Ben Sheets has been pushed until April 29. They're hoping that by giving him that amount of time off, they can shake the injury completely. I'm skeptical.
• Placido Polanco should be back in the Detroit lineup by Tuesday.
• No update on A-Rod, the Yankees sent him to see a physical therapist in New York but planned no tests. Chipper Jones, however, was in Atlanta's starting lineup on Monday, strained quad and all.

Notable Performances:

• In case you haven't noticed, it's time to add Chase Utley. Just kidding. Baseball's premier second baseman has homers in his past five and is dominant at the plate thus far. Just wait two more weeks until Rollins comes back and he can start driving in more runs. 
• Nice stat line, Miguel Tejada: 4-of-5 with three RBI and three runs scored. He's hitting .342 on the year and looks good; as long as he stays on the field, owners are being rewarded for their faith in Miggy.
• Blast from the past: Josh Willingham. Remember when the Marlin outfielder was eligible at catcher? Well he's turned into a quality outfield option, with a .310 batting average, five HR, and a bonus two steals. 

David Ortiz had another 3 RBI. Josh Hamilton added two. Good news for my fantasy teams; I really hope Big Papi is pulling himself out of this slump. Also, note to all regular readers... Now is the time to add Ichiro. Make the aggressive offer. I promise, he won't let you down. That's what you need to know about the day.

April Flowers

I've seen many fantasy websites running posts about which fast starts are legitimate. I think they are right in the sense that they do trust their gut and past performances, but I'd like to see a bit more sabermetric analysis (Tim Dierkes does a good job looking at BABIP - batting average on balls in play - over at his site, RotoAuthority). However, the simple fact of the matter is that every player you selected even in the middle of your draft deserves enough credit to be trusted. It is the end of the draft, those high risk picks like Randy Johnson or Zack Greinke, that make a difference, and it is the teams that drop the picks that didn't pan out for the free agents that will who tend to win.

I've talked a lot here about Fantasy (Baseball) Mechanics, the first post ever run at Rotonomics and then republished soon after the move to MLBFrontOffice. Those familiar will remember that above marginal pitchers represent the best measure of team value, especially when position players are gaged as "embodied pitchers". Let's look at some the guys you might have picked up this season and discuss who is worth keeping. I will try to use anecdotal players so that the reasoning can be applied for future call-ups.

Cliff Lee: As far as an anecdote goes, Lee is the "lucky pitcher whose fast start is a product of a fortunate spot in a rotation". Okay okay, that's a bit long, but consider how lucky the Indians current "ace" has been. He's played Oakland twice and Minnesota, poor lineups at best, and undisputedly left-hand heavy. On top of that, his BABIP is .154, more than seventy-five points beneath league average. Sell him while you can, touting his impressive control (20K/2BB) and former top prospect status. (Also, Justin Germano - can't sustain ERA with more Ks, Gavin Floyd - BABIP at .136

Zach Greinke: Greinke is anecdotally the "good pitcher on a bad team". However, this year it looks like the Royals are improved, and so is the pitcher. His BABIP is actually above league average, though I think improvement on his 1.24 ERA would be asking a bit much. However, and this is crucial, even if we expected Greinke to regress, he doesn't have the name value to make trading his upside worth it. Keep the young ace, or trade for him if you can. (Also, Dana Eveland, Nick Blackburn - BABIP of .320, no HRs yet, Shaun Marcum, Edinson Volquez, and obviously Johnny Cueto)

Joe Saunders: Saunders is one of those guys who "has a track record arguing against his current success". He's never really dominated the minors, and that 2.15 ERA is somewhat the product of a low BABIP. His walk rate is improved this year, but it'll likely come up once teams have a better idea of what they are up against. Combine this with a LD% that is half what it was last year and you have a fast start on a good team that you should move (Also, Micah Owings).

Randy Wolf: This one is easy, the "Veteran starter who has supposedly returned to form". Wolf is not necessarily going to fall back to earth, though I think he is. That's not the issue, but rather that trading him with name value should upon up the possibility of improving your team while picking up one of the other great players. (Also, Kevin Millwood, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva)

Ervin Santana: I'm going to go out on a limb here and entitle this one "The turnaround". Ervin has a well known vice-he cannot pitch away from home. He's always had great stuff, but away games at Minnesota and Texas have been solid outings, even if they weren't great. Both games could have been disasters given his priors, and he had the mindset to keep the game under control. You have to take a risk at some point, and in this case, you'd pay too much for it trying to move him (Not Wandy Rodriguez, since the injury concerns add to the risk).

These are some of the characters you might have already found in your free agency, and if not, they will be there again soon enough.

The Day in Review

Hey everyone, sorry about missing last night's post, its been a hectic weekend. I'll make sure to note anything crucial from yesterday...

Injury News

• A-Rod might be hurt. He's down for a strained quad, and will use Monday to better gage the seriousness of the injury. As healthy as the Yankees - Rodriguez relationship is..., I consider their choice of giving him the call a cause for optimism. More on this later, and if he goes down we will have to look at some free agents worth picking up.
• Jimmy Rollins hit the DL today, and as Rotoworld notes, the Phillies shortstop will have to stay out at least the required 15 days. This doesn't bode well, but hopefully when he returns the lineup will be in its normal run-producing form.
• Rafael Soriano experienced a setback, and won't be back for at least another week. I sold the Braves closer just before his injury, and if he comes back strong you might want to consider selling on him also.
• Chipper Jones, he of four homers in two games, juxtaposed his reward with risk by going down with a quad injury. However, Bobby Cox said its "nothing that's going to have him out any length at all". Wait till next time.
• Wandy Rodriguez hit the DL, so that makes it easier backing off the fast start.
• Sheffield is complaining about the range of motion due to his shoulder, and I'm regretting owning him in more than half of my leagues. Hopefully I trade him before anyone in those leagues reads this.

Notable Performances

• As long as Ryan Theriot hits from the two-hole, he might have to be considered a legitimate fantasy starter. Add this to the resurgence of depth in the middle infield and you have a good idea how notable his .338, 4 SB start has been. I'm a Cubs fan, and even I don't much care for the riot, but that kind of run production is valuable in all but the shallowest leagues.
• Hanley Ramirez, he of five homeruns (2 today) and 5 steals, is making all the trendies who took him #1 overall feel pretty smug. There's no reason to doubt the young hitters ability, and the absence of Miguel Cabrera in the lineup might have only forced the shortstop to rise to a new occasion.
• Edwin Encarnacion also launched two, and has been pretty solid after a slow start cured by a day of batting practice. If only that worked for all slumps. One was off Gallardo, who faired well despite only 4 K's in 7 innings of 1 run ball.
• I think the Brewers are smart enough to consider Gagne a sunk cost, even at that 1 year, 10 million deal. They might want to catch on soon.
• The Big Unit struggles in his second start, but won't in his second start in a row against the Padres in San Diego. Just watch.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Satisfaction: Homing and Hearts

I hear a lot of people say things in drafts such as "Draft with your brain, not with your heart". I have to ask though, Why? I'm not about to lecture about how fantasy sports are just games, but what I will state is that people play fantasy sports for entertainment, and it is from this principle that we must economically analyze drafting with one's "heart".

Let's look at two of the main reasons players will overpay for someone, and earn that aforementioned accusation: They are either homing (drafting players from their home town or favorite teams too high) or simply putting too much faith in a player that they like. Fellow author here Pete Abbate, if given the opportunity to do so without ridicule, would have taken Guerrero about a round too soon. I myself have drafted teams with a first four picks including Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee (though I can't see why this is bad... but that might just be my cubbie blindness).

Still, if you think about it, how much satisfaction does homing give you? I live in Pittsburgh, so of course I don't home for Pirates, but as a Cubs fan grab up the Chicagoans faster than you can say Kosuke Fukudome. Still, I'd say that when the Cubs come to town, attending the games is about twice as enjoyable. I stand to lose about 20 dollars in the barely competitive leagues where I do home, and tickets are about 15 bucks but are worth $25 to me if I get to see my fantasy team win. I imagine this is the same for everyone.

Also, ignoring that player you "know" is going to have a 35 HR season no one is expecting can be devastating if he does. While performing a round or two beneath this projection (a.k.a. defining your pick as a reach) may hurt your team, it is nothing you can't make up, and having those players you like makes it more enjoyable to play the game and play catch up. Compare this to the scenario when you passed on him and he did exactly what you thought he would. The disappointment will likely affect your game play, and you will likely lament for most of the season. 

So if you were unfortunate enough not to be born in Boston where every player is worth drafting, trade for those Tom Gorzelanny's, Adam Jones's, Jeremy Hermida's, and Zack Greinke's a bit too aggressively (sorry Athletics fans, I can't professionally suggest drafting Jack Cust or Bobby Crosby. Next year though you should have plenty of former-Diamondbacks that are today only in the rough).

The Day in Review

So fortunately tonight doesn't feature any 22-inning marathon games! Look for Colorado to show fatigue tomorrow as jet lag and reality catch up with them. San Diego already looked fatigued today. 

Injury Watch:

• Howie Kendrick has shown up on the 15-day DL. Rotoworld's analysis looks strangely like what I wrote about him yesterday. Tom Glavine also made his first DL stint in 22 seasons, making him the complete opposite of Kendrick. 
• Ben Sheets had another solid outing, but left because of a triceps strain. No word yet on whether or not this injury will send him to the DL.
• Paul Lo Duca, he of a .200 batting average this year, was put on the 15-day DL by Washington. If you owned him, what are you thinking? Cut him and move on.

Notable Performances:

• For the second straight game, Chipper Jones had two HR. I hate to keep mentioning him but he's hitting the cover off the ball.
• Richie Sexson hit two HR and had a potential third taken away from him by Torii Hunter. If he is getting his stroke back, he will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with Ichiro ahead of him. Stay tuned.
• Hopefully you didn't start Greg Maddux after he got moved up a day, because he was lit up early by Arizona. He always pitches poorly in the BOB, though, and he did eat up seven innings because the Padres bullpen had nobody to relieve him.
• In the first of what will hopefully be many duels, Johan Santana outpitched Cole Hamels. Both looked good, though, and this should be a great rivalry for years to come.

Congratulations - I think - to Evan Longoria, who either locked himself into some nice guaranteed money or missed out on a big payday in the future. Time will tell if the budding star was right to sign long-term at such a young age. Also, congrats to Big Papi for the grand slam. Hopefully sending a ball over the Monster will jump-start his season.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Hey all, it's been a typical Thursday in fantasy baseball. Kudos to Steve McNair, who has been a fan favorite throughout an outstanding career. Here's a summary of today's news.

Injury Watch:

• Only bumps and bruises today. Vlad was out of the lineup with a bruised finger but should start tomorrow.
• Carlos Pena is day-to-day with a tight hamstring, while Carlos Beltran is day-to-day with a strained neck. 
• Curtis Granderson will play minor league baseball on Friday. The team wants him to get 20-25 at-bats before rejoining the big club, but he still ought to be back soon.

Notable Performances:

• John Smoltz struck out ten in just five innings. Hopefully, in five days, we will be announcing him passing 3,000 strikeouts in a great career that isn't close to finished.
• Smoltz's teammate Chipper Jones went 4-for-4 with two HR, a double, and 3 RBI. He's having a Renaissance and is a very good option at third as long as he's healthy.
• Roy Halladay threw a second consecutive complete game. He has given great value to the owners that scooped him up - he was going too late in my opinion. 
• Justin Verlander had another poor outing. He should be clumped with CC Sabathia as buy-low candidates. I don't see any injury risk with either of these guys, and both are too talented to pitch so poorly for so long.

Two other quick bits: Congrats to Prince Fielder for finally getting off the schneide with his first home run, and look out for Joey Votto. Two HR and 3 doubles in his last 3 games could force Dusty Baker to keep him in the lineup. Grab him while he's hot!

That's what you need to know about the day. 

When Does a Player Become Oft-Injured?

You know the names. J.D. Drew. Rich Harden. Ben Sheets. Ken Griffey Jr. A.J. Burnett. Mark Prior. These are the guys with such phenomenal talent that fantasy players bite on them year after year, only to find themselves consistently let down as the player suffers one injury after another. Here are some names that could be heading down that same road.

Howie Kendrick: It kills me to put Kendrick on this list, because like Brandon Funston, I absolutely love this guy. He's a great pure hitter who provides you a nice boost to your team BA. Unfortunately, for the second straight year, he is having injury problems. Last season it was his hand - it never truly healed, and he struggled at the plate for much of the season. This year, it is a hamstring, which for many players is the worst nagging injury you could have. His minor league track record doesn't indicate regular trips to the disabled list, but if his hamstring bothers him for most of this year, you have to look at him as an injury risk for the next year and beyond.

Erik Bedard: I predicted before the season began that he would have one, probably two, disabled list stints this year, but I take no joy from finding this prediction fulfilled. He's 6'1" but weighs only 190 lbs. That body frame is not built to handle the rigors of power pitching on a daily basis. Bedard didn't pitch at all last September, either, limiting him to 182 innings for the year. I consider lanky power pitchers a yearly injury risk, but the good news with Bedard: his injury is hip inflammation, rather than the usual elbow or shoulder problems. This is less likely to be recurring and perhaps - perhaps! - Bedard can get healthy and stay healthy for the rest of his career.

Scott Kazmir: Kazmir is, like Bedard, a 6 foot, 190 lb. power pitcher. His frame is not built to handle the rigors of throwing in the high 90s once every five days, and we've seen players just like him battle injuries year in and year out. He threw 206 innings last season, which is certainly a demanding workload, and his body is now showing the strain. The really bad news with Kazmir is that his is an elbow injury. There's no indication that it's serious, but I would not be surprised if someone predicted Tommy John surgery in Kazmir's future. This story has been told many times before, and it's one reason I generally avoid Kazmir in my fantasy leagues.

Any of these guys or a number of others could pick up the dreaded "oft-injured" label. I actually thought Josh Beckett was going down that road with his finger problems, but he has proven to be healthy and moved away from it. You generally don't want to be the owner holding the player once he acquires that label, because he becomes much harder to trade. Nonetheless, these players don't become unownable simply because they are going to get injured. Look at Fred Taylor in fantasy football - there are always people willing to take high risk/high reward types. Just know exactly what you're getting into with these types. Only time will tell if Kendrick, Bedard, and Kazmir will join this list.

The Day in Review

Well, I've spent most of the day hitting refresh at the Cubs homepage, MLB.com, Rotoworld, and Yahoo!'s player profile, but the mystery of Alfonso Soriano's calf is far from clear. In a special edition of The Day in Review (appropriately called "Pete don't call me livid") we will touch on the issue.

Soriano Watch

• One thing is certain, and that is Alfonso has hit the DL. The other--Lou Pinella is crazy for calling up Eric Patterson instead of Matt Murton. I've looked at this many ways: maybe he wants to let DeRosa play left so Fontenot has a spot (wait, why call up a second base prospect), or maybe he wants to spell Felix Pie (wait, Patterson is also a lefty). Ultimately, it seems that Pinella either hates Matt Murton or is obsessed with getting lefties in the lineup (Pie should play against righties, so the outfield would presumably be all lefties, with Fontenot at second? I don't want to talk about it).
• Rotoworld says that there is no timetable for Soriano's return. Yahoo! says that it shouldn't be more than the fifteen days. My bet is three weeks unless the Cubs need him.
• Rotoworld says that this is an injury that could hurt his game for awhile. Last time he hit the DL (and the only other time) he proceeded to hit 15 homeruns in 31 games.

Other Injury News

• Nomar is back, and I don't think its important. However, if you are in a very deep league and missed out on A-Rod, David Wright...Kevin Kouzmanoff, Troy Glaus, etc. etc., you should consider him.
• Carlos Zambrano found a way to avoid getting cramps--limiting caffeine intake. This explains a lot.
• Hank Blalock left in extra-innings with a possible injury. If it turns out the oft-injured post-hype sleeper is hurt, it'll be tough to justify him on a team.
• Al Reyes found the DL, which should mean a bit more job security for Percival. Wheeler gets a little boost in value as a handcuff.
• Shawn Hill should be ready to pitch Saturday against the Marlins (technically today). Monitor him closely, but the less pitcher-friendly confines and the injury risk worries me.
• Not injury-related, but Joba Chamberlain and Jimmy Rollins should be back this weekend, tomorrow at the earliest for family reasons.

Notable Performances

• Miguel Cabrera gave owners taking him in the first round what they were expecting, but I still doubt he'll pan out with that kind of value. Nonetheless, a 4-6, HR, 5 RBI ain't nothin'.
• Derrek Lee, one of our favorites here at Rotonomics, went 3-4 with a HR, bringing his totals up to a .393 BA and 6 HRs. Another favorite, Rafael Furcal, had his second after a 3-3 night so far, and is batting .397.
• Josh Hamilton went 4-7 in a long game that usually turns a decent statline (a.k.a 1-3) into a (1-7). As hyped as he was this offseason, so far he's living up to it.
• You'd think I'd mentioned Contreras great start before Webb's, since its much more rare. However, the O's aren't much of an opponent and I'm not reading into it. Webb's 4-0 record, on the other hand, foreshadows a 20+ win season even against the lowly Giants (the irony).
• Clay Buchholz looked bad tonight, and is going to need a big turnaround if he's going to help everyone touting him as the Rookie of the Year favorite. I don't see him as any better a bet going forward than Phil Hughes.
• At the other end of the spectrum, King Felix is making M's fans forget about Bedard. He pitched a complete game tonight--probably because the bullpen had lost his first two games. Put him down at 9 innings, 8 hits, 1 run, 1 BB, and 8 Ks. He's a legitimate fantasy ace.

It's a long post, but that's what you need to know about the day.

Ask the Experts: Minnesota Twins

Our friends at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to ask a few questions of Phil Miller of St. Paul Pioneer Press regarding the upcoming season for the Minnesota Twins. The questions were asked awhile ago and the responses are relatively recent, but I think all of the answers are still relevant.

How Francisco Liriano will perform this season. What are your thoughts based on what you have seen during Spring Training?
Phil Miller: He’s still got good stuff, but the ungodly slider may be gone for good. I just think every time he throws it, he’s reminded of the pain, and he’s worried about tearing the sutures or the new ligament. So he’s probably a fairly conventional pitcher from now on, albeit an above-average one considering his velocity. If he learns to mix his pitches and use his changeup effectively, he’ll be one of the best left-handers in the game. Just not Superman.

Where do you see Delmon Young fitting into the batting order and how do you see him producing?
Phil Miller: Ron Gardenhire has obviously answered this already: Fifth, to serve as protection for Justin Morneau. He seems destined for third eventually, but it may take a year. The short answer on Young is: Wow. Seeing him up close, you become impressed very quickly with his bat speed, which absolutely stands out, even from Morneau. He’s going to be counted on to replace Torii Hunter’s production, and that’s a pretty good baseline for this season. Something like .275/25/100 is reasonable. He’s still learning pitch selection — but he IS learning it, and he should keep improving.

• Which pitcher do you see as the most likely to take the next step and emerge as a top of the rotation starter, Scott Baker or Boof Bonser? Do you see any other young starter stepping up and emerging?
  
• Phil Miller: Well, this is the central question about the Twins this season. I think of the two, Baker is a more likely candidate to step forward, because he’s able to shrug off problems more easily. I think Bonser is going to be a decent 3-4 guy. But I’d keep an eye on Nick Blackburn and Philip Humber, both of whom could easily surprise with a 15-win season. Like most of the Twins, they’re pitch-to-contact guys, but they have the potential to strike out a few more hitters than anyone else on the staff (other than Liriano), a trait that could move them up fairly quickly.
  

Which hitter do you see having the best season this Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer?
Phil Miller: Well, this question depends upon definitions, doesn’t it? I mean, who had the better season in ‘06, Mauer or Morneau? Cases could be made either way. To me, Mauer looks primed for a big year, because he appears so obviously recovered from last year’s injuries, and he’s got the most amazing swing of anyone in the game right now. Really, it’s effortless, and I could imagine him doing something like .330/15/110. Morneau, despite his 0-for-12 start to the season, is a decent bet for 35 home runs, but I suspect Mauer might be the team’s MVP. Unless it’s Gomez.

• Do you think Carlos Gomez is ready to produce at the major league level and if not, who do you think will be the centerfielder?
  
• Phil Miller: Again, the second part has been answered. But Gomez is definitely ready, if only because he has spectacular, world-class talent. Sure, in a perfect world, he’d probably spend this year in Double-A and next year in Triple-A (and win MVPs at both levels) because he’s got volumes to learn. But his speed and his hitting ability and his outfield range, they’re just a level above a typical major-leaguer already. Honestly, his presence is so electric, even though he’s not really suited to the leadoff spot, that it would not surprise me at all if he was the Twins’ MVP this year, even if Mauer and Morneau get most of the attention. Of course, I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if he was hitting about .150 in mid-May (pitchers can learn, too) and spent a couple of months at Rochester, either. But I just think his ability to turn bunts and grounders into hits will prevent that.
  

The Day in Review

Hey all. Brad got a head start on our day in review, but here are some of the non-Borowski highlights from today.

Injury Watch:

• Zach has got to be livid about this one: Alfonso Soriano is looking at a possible DL trip with a calf injury. Lou Pinella says his star left fielder will be out "a while." 
• Erik Bedard has also landed on the DL (that didn't take long at all). Because it was retroactive, he could pitch as soon as next Thursday, but Seattle is keeping quiet about the nature of the injury. 
• In bullpens outside Cleveland, Peter Moylan hit the Atlanta DL. No word yet on when he or Rafael Soriano will be back. Look for Manny Acosta to pick up the early save chances for the Braves.
• Timetables: Scott Kazmir is on track to return May 3 against Boston, while Pedro could be out until June. 

Notable Performances:

• Zack Greinke! with the complete game victory against Seattle. I was recently asked who would be the better acquisition, Greinke or Tom Glavine - needless to say, I advocated the youngster. 
• Matt Kemp continues to outplay Juan Pierre in LA. He scored three runs on Tuesday, which is two more than Pierre has scored all season.
• Jose Valverde blew another save for Houston. His job is still relatively safe because there's nobody behind him in that bullpen, but he's not looking like the major league leader in saves in 2008.
• Quality second basemen: Aaron Hill has 12 RBI in 14 games, Mark DeRosa hit a two-run homer, and Jose Lopez is hitting .308 on the year. 

Be constantly looking for ways to adjust your team - for example, now is the time to push to get Ichiro. And pitching, pitching, pitching is my favorite adage. I have Randy Johnson returning, I am trying to get JJ Putz and John Lackey at bargain prices, and still wouldn't mind picking up Sabathia. 

That's what you need to know about the day. 

Indians Catch A Lucky Break

Zach and Pete will probably touch on this in the daily wrap up, but news like this deserves its own post and I had a little free time so I thought I would pop into Rotonomics and give it proper respect. Its been almost a year since I was blogging full time, and it feels good to be back, temporarily. Anyway...

Last night the Indians caught a lucky break when Joe Borowski went down with an injury. He'll be placed on the 15-day DL and won't be out nearly the whole year, but you might as well let him go in favor of Rafael Betancourt. Borowski likely won't earn his job back when he returns. Betancourt may very well be owned in your league already, but if he isn't grab him. Masahide Kobayashi is next in line after Betancourt and is also worth a look in deeper leagues now.

I'm probably being facetious saying the Indians caught a lucky break. Obviously, losing depth in your bullpen is never a good thing, but leaving Borowski in the closers roll was the wrong decision to start with. When you drafted him, you knew he wasn't going to make it the whole season. Although the Indians couldn't, consider this just another sunken cost and make the switch in your bullpen. In case you're in a really deep league, the other guys who will benefit from this move are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis.

It's been fun, hopefully this helps all the Borowski owners out there make a decision. Perhaps I'll pop in again sometime.

The Day in Review

I have good news--no major injuries today. Today will be a day of youngsters, so without further adieu...

Notable Performances

• Billy Butler, Evan Longoria, and Conor Jackson all hit their first homeruns of the season, and Butler in particular is looking like the real deal. I think it's premature to mention Ryan Braun. In the same sentence as Longoria, but the potential is there and even half the season Braun put up would be formidable. I'm a big fan of Jackson and think he'll have more value come season's end than Justin Upton.
• Randy Johnson is back in the rotation, and is hurling well. Provided the strikeouts are where they have always been, he should be a great start going forward. Hopefully he'll get better defense the next time around.
• A lot of young hurlers hit the mound today. The good: Zack Greinke as usual, who is starting to look like an ace, and Ervin Santana, who is pitching well away from home. The bad: Nick Blackburn (the strikeouts weren't there, as his minor league track suggested) and Ian Kennedy (a quality start, but not enough for you to regret having dropped him). And the ugly: Jon Lester, who is having his chronicled control issues, and Andy Sonnanstine, who at least has the stacked Yankees lineup to blame.
• I'd just like to make a general comment that the middle infield of the Blue Jays (Aaron Hill and David Eckstein, for those scoring at home) are going to make every pitcher on that team look good this year. Like every AL East team not named the Yankees or Red Sox, it's a shame they won't see the playoffs for awhile (unless Scott Boras becomes the agent of every veteran superstar after the two teams trade their farm systems for... none other than Kaz Matsui).

That's what you need (well, you didn't need to know the last part) to know about the day.

Trades in a Vacuum

So, it's that time in the year when the trades should start flying. If you didn't know your needs and surpluses at this point (you should have had a pretty good idea right after your draft) then you better start adding up your projections with pencil and paper, and comparing those totals to previous years in that league. And if its your first year in the league, check out RotoAuthority's pieces on "What It Takes To Win".

But my focus today is just a general trade strategy. Let's consider a hypothetical trade... Carl Crawford for Justin Morneau. Remember the offseason, when Crawford was an early second round pick while Morneau likely fell off the board late in the fourth, if then. So, should this be a no brainer?

Well, obviously not. Two points that come to mind are position surpluses/needs and category surpluses/needs. The team with Morneau isn't like to trade for Crawford if it has three quality outfielders (if its a three OF league), nor our they going to grab the perennial speedster if their first round selection was Jose Reyes. This is the conventional take, and if your staring at your screen thinking "duh!" you are well within your rights.

However, I want to advise against this strategy, if you are the Justin Morneau owner. For the previous reasoning, what I consider "Trades Aren't Made in a Vacuum"--a rare fantasy baseball tribute to Supreme Court rulings--fails to consider perceived value and liquidity. Another hypothetical: the team makes the deal, then spins Crawford into one of two underperforming stars, Mark Teixeira or David Ortiz. Someone in the league should have a first basemen (necessarily better than Justin Morneau) who they would move for Crawford. In most leagues, that will be the case, and the Morneau owner will be able to turn the Twin into Teix, Ortiz, or possibly Pujols (as a sidenote, I would consider Derrek Lee an upgrade also).

In summary, the team advocating a "Trades Are Made in a Vacuum" essentially traded Morneau for a second-round first basemen. The team brandishing John Marshall sentiments is left with  the Twin, and hopefully front row seats to a Crawford-Ortiz trade. In an ideal world, the Crawford owner should have found the best trade, but in all honesty, we all make mistakes like theirs. This "thought experiment", if you will, is a bit of a hyperbole, and trades involving 7th for 5th round talent, or anywhere in the spectrum, are rather common when teams are desperate. Just don't write off a good deal because "it doesn't fit your team's needs", because you can address that soon after.

The Day in Review

Sunday was a popular day for the stars to return to action. Here's a run-down of who returned and how they fared.

Notable Performances:

• After giving up a lead-off triple, BJ Ryan earned the save against Texas in his first game back. Because Jeremy Accardo has not pitched well this year, he will probably get a few more save chances than he deserves after coming off major surgery.
• Francisco Liriano threw only 4 2/3 innings and surrendered 4 runs. Like Ryan, I expect him to be mediocre for a while as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. 
• Jorge Posada moved from DH to catcher late in the game against Boston, but didn't attempt to throw despite two stolen base attempts against him. Hopefully the Yankees will continue to get him ABs while they work his shoulder back into shape to catch.
• Tim Lincecum struck out 11 in six innings. Even against St. Louis, that's some very good work.

Injury Watch:

• Tom Glavine could be in for a first career trip to the disabled list. He injured his hamstring and his status is currently unknown. 
• After hyperextending his left knee, Dontrelle Willis will spend 15 days on the disabled list. Maybe the time off will help him start to pitch again, because he hasn't been anything special for a couple years. 
• Shane Victorino is officially on the DL and Jimmy Rollins is out until Tuesday. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Not the most active day around the league, beyond the callup of hopefully-rookie-phenom (I own him in two of my three leagues) Evan Longoria. For those who don't read boxscores religiously, the youngster went 1-3 with a ribbies and a walk.

Injury News

• Shane Victorino added another note to disappoint fantasy owners with a potential DL stint. He's got the potential that you have to wait on him, though maybe it's a blessing you'll have an excuse to keep him out of games until he starts hitting and running.
• Howie Kendrick is back and looking good, while Jose Reyes is taking the weekend off.
• Chad Cordero is back and ready for action.
• In other Nationals news, Wily Mo Pena is coming back tomorrow.

Notable Performances

• I'd remiss if I didn't mention Francoeur's great game. With he and McCann looking good, the Braves offense is really clicking and could surprise this year.
• Justin Upton is putting up ridiculous statlines, and I was never a believer. If you aren't in a keeper league and can get someone with the kind of track record that Upton seems on pace for, you should jump ship.
• Carlos Pena is leading the majors in homeruns, and maybe its time he gets some credit. I would not be surprised if he beats Prince Fielder in HRs this season.

That's what you need to know about the day.

How to Distinguish a Bad April from a Bad Season

I've been thinking about this post for a week or so and I can't say I have any fantastic advice. Sometimes, in fantasy baseball, flukey things happen - Jake Peavy was just not as good in 2006 as the rest of his career. Could this be the year CC Sabathia just isn't himself?

The best statistical advice I can offer is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). It's used among the sabermetric community, generally to predict flukey months from both pitchers and hitters (hitters if the BABIP is abnormally high, pitchers if the BABIP is abnormally low). The exact formula is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF). Even this statistic is tough to analyze, though. The league average BABIP is about .300, but "speed guys" like Chone Figgins will obviously have a higher BABIP because they get on base more often on infield hits, etc.

I like to look at the early season schedule, as well. If a pitcher struggles against a certain team or in a certain ballpark, and plays two games there early on, it looks much worse than if they have two bad starts there in July. Because there aren't other stats to mask those bad starts, the struggles seem to be worse than they actually are.

Watch some games whenever you can. Joe Fantasy isn't going to know that Sabathia's mechanics are completely messed up, but watching a game or two allows you to get a better gut call. Sometimes a gut feeling is what's needed to sell on your ace in April rather than trying to wait for him to come around.

In the end, I believe you need to rely on your preseason predictions when all else fails. Go back to early 2007, if you can remember that far, and think about the guys you expected would play well. Most of them were not that far from those expectations at season's end - some players just take circuitous routes to the statistics we predicted. I would still buy on CC if I could get an owner to sell, but I have to be careful to not overpay for a player who's underperforming.

The Day in Review

Albert Pujols owners - rejoice! The big slugger continues to hit well and I hope he does for the entire 2008 season. Either that, or I hope you guys sell high on him in July. Here are today's big stories:

Notable Performances:

• Josh Hamilton hit his second home run of the season, to go with 4 RBI against Toronto today. He was a trendy pick, and so far, he has outperformed the hype.
• Carlos Pena hit home runs 4 and 5 of the season today. I thought he was overpriced in drafts, but it looks like I made a bad call here. Florida first baseman Mike Jacobs also has five home runs on the year; he could be a nice stop-gap for panicky David Ortiz owners.
  
• Chien-Mien Wang threw a complete game two-hitter against Boston, while Tim Hudson and Brett Myers put up 8 innings in victorious efforts. These guys are racking up quality innings and supplement stud pitchers really well right now.
• CC Sabathia was chased after 3 1/3 innings against Oakland. I don't know what's going on with him this season, but he's certainly not playing like a big-time pitcher looking to get paid at season's end.
  

Injury News:

• Jose Reyes has some hamstring tightness and will probably sit out the weekend slate of games. His game relies on speed and being able to run, and this "tightness" probably has more to do with the colder April weather than anything else.
• Dontrelle Willis left after only 14 pitches today - he isn't any kind of fantasy stud this year, though, so this shouldn't be decimating your staff. His knee was hyperextended, which shouldn't require an intense recovery program.
  
• Ty Wigginton is officially on the DL. This is shame because he is eligible at so many positions, but be grateful he's a sub rather than a stud.
  

I will conclude by saying: Brandon Webb owners, I am jealous. He is a stud in every sense, and threw 8 fantastic innings against Colorado today. He threw as well as any of the aces that took the mound today, and he is simply reliable. Maybe this is just my infatuation with him speaking, though.

That's what you need to know about today.

Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

Hey everyone, I was planning on taking the day off today, but fortunately Rob Reed of baseballgeeks.com published our "Round Table Discussion". The question...

In any given fantasy season, when is the time that a fantasy manager should decide that extreme measures are necessary (i.e., a fire sale or a free agent exodus) in order to improve a poorly performing team? Just when is it time, if ever, to lose trust in your draft and press the panic button?

I tried to keep my answer in line with the niche we try to fill here at Rotonomics, that is the perspective of economics. I'd like to know what you guys thought of my answer, which is over at the site here. It's my first time participating, so any comments would be appreciated.

Also, I've been toying with the idea of a fantasy mailbag. I will gladly do it if you all are interested, as sort of a weekly thing (though we would get back to you as soon as we had an answer). All in favor say "Ay" and if there are three of you, we will get it started.

Thanks, and I'll have The Day in Review up later this evening.

The Day in Review

A couple late games are yet to start, but they include the Giants... so lack fantasy relevance. A lot happened today, with several player finding the DL that you may own. Also, a poster will be commended.

Injuries

• Rich Harden finally found the DL today, as we can only presume he had been looking for it through those first two starts. Since Harden is perpetually hurt, and seems to pitch well, I think the A's have nothing to lose pitching him until his arm falls off. Then again, the A's have little to lose in the first place right now. The poster known only as "kevin" predicted this scenario.
• Mike Lowell also was placed on the DL for a sore thumb. Pete and I weren't hot on Lowell this offseason, and I would dismiss any chance of a repeat. Jed Lowrie is being groomed to replace him, and while you should know his name from the Santana Chronicles, he's not worth monitoring yet.
• Randy Johnson is due back on Monday against the Giants. If it were against any other team, I wouldn't recommend starting him yet.
• Chad Cordero should be back soon, so don't get too attached to Jon Rauch.
• Howie Kendrick is expected back this weekend.

Performances

• Geovany Soto, who got a lot of hype this offseason, has started to live up to it in this young season. He could hit 20 HRs while batting just under .300, as many liberal estimates predicted.
• Jose Vidro is really struggling, and Rotoworld is speculating that Jeff Clement might get called up. Clement would be an interesting option, especially in AL-only or deeper leagues.
• Shaun Marcum put up his second 7 inning-8 K-1 BB day, and I think he's worth owning. If he's available in your league, consider picking him up. He's of the Zack Greinke, Edinson Volquez speculative breed.

I've always been a big promoter of drafting closers, and this is the year that advocates of such a strategy have paid. Plenty of new closers, and I'd recommend reading RotoAuthority for a description of the current bullpens since Tim Dierkes does a good job keeping it updated. That's what you need to know about the day.

5 Traditional Fast Starters

Recently, I posted about five traditional slow starters - they are guys you should look to acquire during the season, because they consistently play better as the season drags on. Here are five guys who consistently start hot. Pick them up early if you don't have them now, but try to move them in a couple months to truly maximize their value.

Brad Penny: Penny is by far the most well-documented first half player in fantasy baseball history. His pre-All-Star Break ERA is 3.66, but his post-All-Star Break ERA jumps to 4.23. His strikeouts fall from 588 to 399. The biggest problem is that the big-name websites all crucify Penny in June, so it's difficult to move him for much in the second half. If you had him all of 2007, though, you still had a pitcher with a 3.03 ERA at season's end. He was so strong the first three months of last year (ERA was under 2.00) that he's worth owning for half the season, but just remember that he's really only a three month investment.

Alex Rios: There's not a huge amount of data on him, but he's started the season strong and I think merits mention on this list. He has 37 homers before the All-Star Break in his career, as opposed to only 15 after. His career batting average falls 20 points and his OPS falls almost 100 points. Those numbers might be somewhat depleted by his 2006 season, where he missed July because of injury and never was the same player. He maintained a high average but lost his power in the second half of 2007. He's still young, but I'll probably sell on him come June.

Russell Martin: I'm putting the young Martin on this list, but what I really mean is all fantasy catchers. Catching is the most physically demanding position in baseball, and most - if not all - catchers show signs of being worn out by season's end. Most also have significantly more games played in the first half of the season, because they get more days off to rest or miss games because of injury late in the year. Martin is the most susceptible to this because his value comes partially from his speed, which will be first to go as he tires, but Victor Martinez's power numbers drop significantly in the second half, as does Joe Mauer's average. If you have Martin, see what you can get for him in July - you might be able to upgrade your outfield significantly and go with a stopgap at catcher for the rest of the season.

Justin Morneau: I'm sure his owners haven't forgotten his fall from grace last season. After the '07 All-Star Break, he hit only .243 with 7 HR, as compared to .295 with 24 HR beforehand. His sharp decline caused a lot of fantasy teams to tank - and to the owners who got rid of him, nice work! His career numbers show a fairly dramatic pre- and post-All-Star Break split: In 28 more games after the Break, for example, he has 18 fewer home runs. His average drops nearly 20 points while his OPS drops nearly 100 points. I was one of the victims of his collapse last year, and you can be sure I won't be buying Morneau from anybody in July.

Brian Roberts: This find surprised me slightly, but Brian Roberts actually hit .324 before the All-Star Break last year, only to finish the season by hitting .247 after. I examined the splits more closely and found out that he's nearly a .300 hitter in the season's first half, but hits only .267 in its second act. He also has 49 fewer SBs and 48 fewer runs in only 28 fewer games. Roberts is an easy guy to sell in late June to the guy who's dead last in steals, and he should fetch a pretty penny (especially if he ever gets traded to the Cubs).

No wonder I collapsed so badly last year - I owned Morneau, Roberts, and Penny. Although all three had seemingly outstanding numbers at season's end, their second half numbers were truly awful. Look to move guys like these in mid-season if possible, because their statistical drop-offs can drag a team from the path to a championship to the path toward disaster.

The Day in Review

Fenway Park was just what Detroit needed to break out of the funk they've been in! 155 wins is still a possibility in Hockeytown! (Speaking of, Congratulations to the Penguins and especially Gary Roberts on a great start to the 2008 Stanley Cup Playoffs.) In actual baseball news, here's today's: 

 

Injury News: 

• Atlanta placed Rafael Soriano on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow tendinitis. This situation is hard to read, but it appears Peter Moylan will pick up the save chances. Keep an eye on Mike Gonzalez, targeting a June return, as a potential source of midseason saves if Soriano is out for an extended period.
• The Tampa Bay Rays placed Matt Garza on the 15-day DL with radial nerve irritation. Apparently, this is a minor recurring problem, and he won't be out more than two weeks. In other Rays news, Scott Kazmir is throwing in the low-90s. Next step: minor league rehab assignment. 
• The Diamondbacks put Doug Davis on the DL with thyroid cancer (a treatable form, if you hadn't heard). Randy Johnson is expected to come off the DL to take his spot in the next few days. 
• J.J. Putz is throwing on flat ground - he'll do this one more time before moving to a mound. Putz owners: Know that Seattle will get him healthy and get him back as quickly as is prudent, because they need him more than you do. May is probably the earliest you'll see him back, so plan accordingly.

Notable Performances:

• Albert Pujols! I'm regretting not sticking to my guns this preseason with Pujols - I started out (along with Zach) saying he would burn those who passed on him, but shut up after I decided his injury worries were too serious for the first round. At the end of his career, the guy will go down as one of baseball's best hitters, and injuries or not, he should be a top fantasy pick every year.
• Zack Greinke threw 8 innings of shutout baseball against a very good New York Yankee lineup. Zach recently asked me who I'd rather have, Greinke or Tom Glavine, and I answered Greinke in a heartbeat. Grab this guy if you still can, because he looks ready to have a big season in 2008. 
• Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with a homer and a double. I like him to improve on last season because he won't have the nagging hand injuries - he's playing in a Braves offense that's been unexpectedly potent so far this season. 

Just remember: Detroit won! It's not going to be 2003 all over again! That's what you need to know about the day. 

Outdated Beliefs

I'm a pretty big fan of streaming pitchers, even though I'm generally a purist when it comes to fantasy strategy (basic 9 man lineup, among other details). As important as the pitcher you are planning to plug for a game is the team they are playing against, and this year there seems to be some confusion among which teams to target. To put it simply, Pittsburgh has had one of the more potent offenses while Detroit has had the worst, so we are looking at some identity crises to say the least. So which beliefs about last years struggles are outdated...

Washington: Last year the Nats had the least scoring offense, putting up just over four runs a game. However, as the outfield becomes healthy, that offense shouldn't be targeted. With a developing Lastings Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman, combined with Nick Johnson and eventually Wily Mo Pena and Elijah Dukes, the offense should have some pop. Proceed with caution.

San Francisco: So far I have streamed three pitchers against this measly offense, and would recommend doing the same. I'm a huge advocate of making moves you won't regret, and if Bengie Molina and Aaron Roward somehow put up a big game, you can't blame yourself for trying. This is especially useful in home games or at LA or SD, where the parks are spacious.

Chicago, Kansas City, and Arizona: These were the next three worst offenses after the Nats and Giants, and none of them should be depended on as an easy matchup. While I expect the offenses to be inconsistent, Nick Swisher + Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gordon + Billy Butler, and Chris B. Young + Conor Jackson spell either new or developing talent that have improved their teams lineup.

So who should you target..(other than San Fran)?

Baltimore and Oakland: Even better than these teams firesale lineups is the fact that, with the exception of Rich Harden for the time being, they don't have a great pitcher either, so you can look forward to a likely win from your starter in addition to good peripherals. Games at Oakland or away from Baltimore are your best bets.

Pittsburgh, Florida, but not Tampa Bay: These are your standard small market teams, so they offer good looks, as long as its not the Rays. With a young and talented lineup, the Devil Rays are expected to be a surprise team this year and should be treated as such. Don't fall into the trap of an outdated belief.

Seattle, Colorado, Minnesota, San Diego, and St. Louis: I wouldn't fully recommend these matchups, but if you really need a spot start and no free agents has a particularly good history, these are okay risks. Colorado away from home struggles as much as some of the aforementioned teams, while St. Louis, Seattle and Minnesota seem to either click or fail miserably. San Diego at home is a huge pitcher's park and is a decent matchup, though Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez should improve this year. In a close matchup you could pick these guys up, and hope your opponent follows suit with a less preferably choice (then consider just dropping your risk if your opponents is higher).

So there are some recommendations for streaming. I didn't include Houston, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia because, while they are strikeout prone, they are also homerun prone. However, at a pitcher's park and in a tight strikeout matchup, you could consider them. So good luck "cheating" the best you can, and don't be the team to play a pitcher against the Tigers once they get on track for that 1,000 run prediction.

The Day in Review

These late games are a pain to wait out, but I'll give you the news so far. I'm rooting for the Reds to clean up in extra innings, but in the meantime let's see what's going on around the league.

Injuries

• Dmitri Young has landed himself on the DL, and while he wasn't getting much playing time in the first place, I for one am disappointed in even less. As a side note, the Nationals offense is much more formidable this year (foreshadowing to a future post...)
• Rollins on the other hand is expected back Wednesday.
• Matt Garza left early with an undisclosed injury, and with the way he's been pitching I think the Rays may give him a rest for the 15 days. The Rays have a bunch of pitching prospects, but Rotoworld expects them to give Jeff Niemann the call if need be.
• Jeter is out until Friday, and Yahoo! suggests that A-Rod might play SS this year. I don't see it happening.
• Liriano is expected back Sunday, but I would be hesitant to expect impact this early.
• K-Rod doesn't think he'll see the DL, but from the perspective of the Angels this has more to do with the risk of putting Shields in there.

A couple other tidbits...

• Some young pitchers continued to struggled today (Phil Hughes and Chad Billingsley) while others (Johnny Cueto and Brian Bannister) are showing flashes of brilliance.
• Brandon Lyon was given a vote of confidence from his coach; Jeremy Accardo gave up his first run of the season. The latter should make it easier to rush B.J. Ryan into the closer role once "healthy".
• Baltimore is 6-1, while Detroit is 0-7. Gotta love baseball.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Sell Low / Sell High

We all know the strategy of buying a player at his low points and selling others when they are overperforming, but I would opine that this works particularly well early in the season. While most experts recommend holding your "cards" until at least May, the impatient league mate is likely to be jumpy. Struggles across a team are exaggerated, successes across a team are short lived, so every person in the league is hesitant about their position. Even moreso, player struggles are exaggerated (look at Alfonso Soriano's .094 BA and tell me that will last--we've talked about him to much to devote a full section to him). Anyway, here are the player's I think you should ditch, and the ones you should grab...

Sell High: Jermaine Dye, Rich Harden, Chipper Jones, Torii Hunter, Ben Sheets, George Sherrill

This group is dominated by injury risks, but you should try to convince anyone looking for that "ace" pitcher that this is the year of Ben Sheets/Rich Harden. A team that's desperate for pitching might think that its a risk they have no choice to take, and you could get one of the struggling players below. Remember, they are probably banking on any struggling pitching to return, so an pitching-for-offense or vice versa is your best bet. Sherrill is leading the majors in saves, leading to one of three possibilities: The O's continue to win (Editor's Comment: This is sarcastic), Sherrill falls back to earth, or Sherrill is traded to be a setup man midseason. Finally, I think Dye and the White Sox will struggle with age and Hunter coming off a big season will hover around his career average, not where he is now.

Buy Low: Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jeff Francis, Matt Kemp, John Maine, Russell Martin, Aramis Ramirez, Hunter Pence, C.C. Sabathia, B.J. Upton, Justin Verlander + Tigers Offense

You might be able to get any of these outfielders from a team that has a "bigger named" outfielder than the one you seek, since they will believe they can weather the storm. Fantasy players are prone to look at pitching and an outfield core as if it is centered around one guy, making the others undervalued. Crawford is underperforming, Dunn hasn't hit a home run, and Kemp isn't even playing (yet). Sabathia, Verlander, and Maine are in similar situations--target them if their team has another "ace". Also, anyone on in the Tigers offense is worth trading for, but the condition is so exaggerated that I expect even the fleetfooted league mate won't believe in it.

The Day in Review

So I'm watching the Final Four and figured I'd do some fantasy baseball in the background. Trying to diffuse some of the drama, you know.

Injury News:

• Howie Kendrick is day-to-day after leaving the game with a thumb injury. Should be minor, but remember, Kendrick's injury last season cost him a lot of the year.
• Derek Jeter left the Yankee game today with a strained quad. He should also be day-to-day.
• Rich Harden was scratched from his start, but he's already been scheduled for his next start so it probably isn't an injury. If you took a flier on Justin Duchscherer, however, you may be waiting a little longer. He has some inflammation in his biceps and has been scratched and may need a cortisone injection or more.
  

Notable Performances:

• Matt Holliday's early season slump may be over after hitting safely in the last three games, including a game-winning home run last night. 
• Chipper Jones has started off the season strong, hitting .400 with an OPS of nearly 1.000. As long as he's healthy, he looks very good at third base - he fell too far in my drafts this year. 
• Also at third base: Attention, owners of Josh Fields: It's time to pick up Joe Crede. He hit a grand slam today and is going to be the White Sox regular third baseman for a long time. At least ride him while he's hot.
• Hanley Ramirez hit his second home run, to go with only one steal on the season. Hopefully you didn't draft him to carry your stolen bases alone, because it looks like he isn't going to be getting free reign on the basepaths this year. 

So somehow, Kansas pulled it out. Hopefully you saw that one coming and made some money in your tournament pools. That's what you need to know about the day. 

Prisoner's Dilemma

Probably the most rudimentary example of economic game theory stems from the story of the Prisoner's Dilemma. While it's the most rudimentary, it's a bit too long of a lesson for here, so if you have an interest I'll direct you over there. Either way, the implications of the theory are pretty obvious for our purposes.

In game theory, a unit can choose to either "cooperate" or "defect". If both players cooperate, the gain for each is "medium". If both defect, the gain for each is "small". Finally, if one defects and the other cooperates, the defector gains a lot while the cooperator gains nothing. Now consider this when applied to fantasy baseball, or any fantasy sport really...

• Cooperating: Making a relatively fair trade that helps both teams. This often involves trading surpluses for surpluses. As a side note, it's good to go into the season knowing at least a few members of the league, or at least arranging some trading partners during the draft. With the mentality of cooperating, you can draft value and worry less about need.

• Defecting: These are the trades when you've ripped someone off. Last year I traded a package centered around Delgado for a package centered around Wright. It was in May, and my team never looked back. Needless to say, these are the harder trades to pull off, but they are the trades that win you leagues.

How do you pull off the defect? Well, the issue is that, if your opponent defects, neither of you really gain anything, since no trade will be agreed upon. Rather, just like in the Prisoner's Dilemma, the other team must cooperate, believing that you too are making a fair deal. Are such trades unethical? Should a league veto the deal, even if both teams believe they are making a fair deal? And for the most entertaining--What was the greatest "defect" you've ever pulled off?

The Day in Review

Today marks the end of hockey's regular season, and I [for one] will take it. In baseball news:

Injury Watch:

• John Smoltz came back from the DL and pitched effectively. Best I can tell, this guy will pitch forever. 
• Josh Beckett came off the DL but was unable to stop Boston from being swept by Toronto. Give him a little time to work back from the injury - 20 wins probably won't happen, but over 15 is still a sure bet.
• Dave Dombrowski, Tigers General Manager, announced during the broadcast that Curtis Granderson could return as early as ten days from now. Hopefully his return can jump-start the Tiger offense, which has to be just waiting to explode with all the talent top to bottom.
• John Lackey's return is on track; he is expected to begin throwing off a mound next week. Early May is still the targeted return date for the Los Angeles ace.

Notable Performances:

• No, I don't believe my post advising you to buy Alfonso Soriano had anything to do with his home run today. It should be the first of many and as I said, I recommend buying low on him if you can.
• Ben Sheets threw a shutout - in leagues that reward CG and SO, that's a very valuable start, and rare this early in the season. Sheets is proof that injury risks can pay dividends - don't forget that, owners of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Scott Kazmir, etc. 
• Two Pirate performances worth noting (seriously!) - Nate McLouth, hitting third in the lineup, went 3-for-5 with 3 runs and 2 RBI. He's been excellent so far, ride him until the streak ends. Ian Snell struck out 10 in just six innings. He was going too late in most drafts, in my opinion. Even though the wins won't be there, he's still going to put up numbers all season.
• Don't fear, Justin Verlander owners, only 4 of the 9 runs charged to your ace were earned. Tough game for Detroit, who really needs to settle down and start winning baseball games. 
• Interestingly, both Brandon Lyon (Arizona) and Manny Corpas (Colorado) blew saves in the same game today. Lyon has blown two so far this year, and won't be closing for long if he keeps this up. Corpas isn't in any imminent danger, but three-time All-Star Brian Fuentes is ready to close if Corpas struggles.  

Finally, congratulations to Ken Griffey, Jr., for hitting home run number 594. Apparently this is a huge deal (it is the leading headline on MLB.com). I hope he gets to 600 and beyond because I loved him when I was growing up, but I don't think I'm going to congratulate him on every homer this season. I know this has been a lot, but...

That's what you need to know about the day. 

5 Traditional Slow Starters

Some guys just don't enjoy the month of April. That's my only explanation for this phenomenon. It's pretty impressive, if you look at the career numbers for these players, how they consistently start off the season so poorly, and yet always finish the season with very strong numbers. So whether you drafted these guys or are looking for names to target a few weeks into the season, here are five traditional slow starters who you might look to add:

Alfonso Soriano: I'd be remiss to not add this name for Zach. In the early going, historically, the average has been there, but Soriano's HR, RBI, and SB numbers are lower in April than any month the rest of the year. That .045 average is a little worrisome, but it's way too early to try to sell this guy. He's still got very real 30/30 potential. I think he will warm as the Chicago weather does, and he'll mash the ball at some point to make up for this awful start. No reason not to try to get him if he's available from a panicky owner.

Ichiro: His career average is .333 - talk about consistency, he's getting a hit exactly one out of every three at-bats. How does he get to this average on a yearly basis? Career average in April: .299. Career average in May: .370. Career steals in April: 35. Career steals in May: 65. For whatever reason, the guy uses April as his warm-up for the season, then simply tears up major-league pitching in May. If the owners in your league aren't aware of his career numbers, start telling them he's getting old (age 34) and this is the year he loses his speed. Then pick him up and reap the rewards.

David Ortiz: It's a little tough for me to call him a slow starter because he doesn't have bad numbers all the way through June, but if you drafted Ortiz for the power, you should be uncomfortable with his lack of it in the early season. He only has 20 career May home runs, as opposed to 56, 58, and 53 in July, August, and September. He does have more games played in the last three months of the season, but not nearly enough to make up the difference. Ortiz is 32 this season, and if you can convince an owner he's heading into the downside of his career, he's an absolutely fantastic first baseman.

Juan Pierre: I like him better than most people do. He traditionally plays like crap all the way until June, but something changes then (perhaps the warm weather) and he starts playing really well (.328 in July, .295 in August, .331 in September). Granted, he isn't a starter now, but keep in mind that an injury to any of the three could get him playing time, as well as an injury that results in him getting traded. Three months is a long time for things to change, and I doubt he will be on the bench then. I say, if you don't have a Chone Figgins or Brian Roberts and could use the steals, stash Pierre on your bench. He could end the season as a valuable commodity, and will probably spend some time in your league's free agency this year.

Rafael Furcal: Here's a Dodger you might feel a little more comfortable targeting. He has a .249 average in April, .294 average in May, with 6 HR in April and 15 in May to boot. Like Pierre, I see him as a speed guy whose performance will only get better as the weather warms (although in Southern California, the weather is always warm, so maybe this is only relevant for road games). He's a great source of steals from a middle infield position, and definitely an underrated guy if you miss on the top three.

These are five slow starters I say you ought to target in your fantasy leagues. Unless you're looking to get Ichiro, wait until early May and see if the owner is getting antsy. There's no reason any of these guys should be collapsing this year (yes, even Pierre, I strongly believe he'll be a starter somewhere by season's end. He won't steal 60 but could grab 25-30 in the second half). Buy low, sell high - these are the guys you need to look to grab if you're trying to win that elusive championship.

The Day in Review

We're heading into the last day of the week in your H2H leagues, so hopefully you are looking strong--I'm thoroughly beating Pete, and wanted to throw that in since I got to review the day. Manny Parra users got a good outing, and since he plays the Mets next you may want to trade him since he'll likely lose his spot when Gallardo returns later this month.

Injuries

• Lance Berkman was pulled because of neck spasms, and is likely to miss tomorrow. It doesn't sound like an injury that could lead to a DL stint, so don't worry. In shallow leagues, Mike Jacobs might be around still and has been hitting the ball hard.
• Gary Sheffield won't hit the DL, but is going to wear a splint for six weeks. He reported that it won't affect his swing, but I bet he won't be pushing for ill-advised doubles or stealing bases till June.
• Lidge was back today, but wasn't needed. B.J. Ryan should be back soon, although Accardo has been strong so the Blue Jays shouldn't rush him back.

Performance

• Morneau and Lee both hit homers today, but it took nearly a month longer for Lee to get that second homer last year. I wrote here awhile ago that Lee's second half stats pointed to a better player than Morneau might be (given an awful Post-All Star line for the Twin), and I'm sticking to my guns.
• Michael Bourne had his fourth steal of the season, putting him on pace for one hundred. That's not going to happen, but 50+ is looking like a given.
• Buchholz may be a bit overrated, but his outing today wasn't to bad against a surprisingly hot Blue Jays offense. Don't be alarmed. 
• Best players on Tigers offense by week two: Brandon Inge and Clete Thomas. While the Tigers offense will definitely improve, they won't be the Yankees of last year.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day(s) in Review

Hey everybody, sorry we went missing last night. Here's a summary of the recent fantasy news:

Injury Watch:

• Chad Cordero is out until next Friday with a sore shoulder. Hopefully he comes back and this fades into our memory. Until then, if you're desperate for saves, take a flier on Jon Rauch, the Washington fill-in.
• Michael Cuddyer has a dislocated finger, and was placed on the 15-day DL. Craig Monroe will play right field until Cuddyer returns. 
• Albert Pujols had his finger stepped on but didn't miss any time. I know the guy is on record as saying he won't play through pain, but I still think he's going to burn a lot of the people that let him fall this year.

Notable Performances:

• Pittsburgh's Ryan Doumit is 8-for-15 in this young season. He hit his first homer Friday night. If you need some help at catcher, he's worth grabbing. 
• Friday night marked Justin Upton's second homer in two games. There will be growing pains, but he's a great guy to have on your roster in keeper/dynasty leagues.
• Kason Gabbard shut out the Angels for six innings. I don't love pitchers that call the Ballpark at Arlington home, but watch Gabbard to see how he pitches throughout April.
• Hiroki Kuroda looked great against San Diego on Friday, allowing only one run in seven innings. He threw strikes and could be a big player in a deep Dodger rotation this season.
• Chase Utley is on pace for 121.5 home runs, according to RotoWorld. But if you didn't already know how good he was, stop reading this blog.

Other Notes:

• Hanley Ramirez is without a steal attempt this year.
• Aaron Hill and Alex Rios both had their contracts extended; both have incentives in their deals, though, and I don't think this will have a huge effect on their numbers this season.

That's what you need to know about the past two days. 

Surveying the Signals

It's about time we get back to what this site is really about--economics. Now, many of you Freakonomists should be very familiar with the concept of signaling; as a side note, if you haven't read Tyler Cowen's Discovering Your Inner Economist there is a great section on the topic. But how does the economic principle apply to fantasy baseball?

We live in an era where information is power. The more you can learn about your surroundings, the more competitive you will be, whether it be in a pick up game of basketball, at your office, or in your fantasy baseball league. Obviously, you know this,  because you're reading a rather new blog that takes a devoted league member to discover. And smaller sites like these give a peculiar advantage...

If this site has any worth at all (and it does, based on our overwhelming number of readers who don't seem to post, hint hint) it is because we offer a different spin than ESPN, Yahoo!, FoxSports, or even Rotoworld. The aforementioned list does provide valuable information, but it is, as an economist would put it, not a scarce commodity. This is to say that any competitive player will have read these websites, and hence information gained from them cannot give you an edge. So you've figured out the first step: Having access to the most information possible will let you make the most reasoned decision possible. If you had only read, say, ESPN, you would probably think differently about a number of players than you do now.

What I want to point out is that, while you have done your homework, your league mates probably haven't. Most people rely on the big sites, because, for the most part, its enough. And those sites often dislike the same players (as a general rule, they warn to stay away from injury risks--often leading to draft day steals that will win leagues). The other day I was reading about how bad of a pick Carlos Zambrano is. Last year the guy was arguably the fourth best pitcher, whereas he's now relegated to a second tier. Pundits are going so far as to call him unownable. These are the signals that you must learn to abuse.

Your ESPN reading league member will bite on most of the advice they here from major sites. When you read an article on, say, Rotoworld, consider it a signal that the insulted player is a buy low, or that the paraded player is a sell high. Use there loved websites against them, because "Fantasy Expert" is a funny title that doesn't mean all too much, and if you disagree with those Yahoo! writers you shouldn't hesitate to take advantage of the signals those sites send. It's a small edge, but getting unpopular players for nothing usually doesn't take too much

The Day in Review

Hey everyone, it's a bit early for a complete summary but if anything very important happens I'll have updated this by morning. We had a pretty active day around the league, so I'll try to cover the majority of it.

Injury Front

• J.J. Putz found himself on the 15-day DL, and this is why experts dislike drafting closers early. It's an unusual termed "Costochondritis" which could lead toward several weeks off. For now, the M's are going with a closer by committee, with Mark Lowe the main choose.
• Pedro Martinez hit the DL, and is expected out 4-6 weeks. Consider this the minimum. If you could trade the player for decent value, you might want to--oddly, if you can trade for him at beneath market value, do this also. I'd treat him about a tier lower; the equivalent of Hiroki Kuroda or Matt Garza.
• Conor Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and Jorge Posada all missed the day, but don't be concerned as all are expected back soon if not their team's next game.

Other News

• Alfonso Soriano is moving back to leadoff. If you were one of the millions of bloggers who pointed to his split stats from other lineup spots, you should give yourself a pat on the back. At the very least this should help him get to twenty steals and he'll see better pitches, but a slow April is probably going to be a trend with the Cubs.
• Brian Bannister had a solid start against a pretty good team, and I think he's a bit underrated. Granted, the Royals shouldn't win a ton of games for him, but both he and Zack Greinke look to be solid back-of-the-fantasy-rotation fill-ins. In shallow leagues, consider both or at least keep them tagged for streaming when the need comes.
• On the other hand, Tim Redding had a great outing for the Nationals against a similarly stunning Philadelphia offense, but I wouldn't recommend picking him up. The track record doesn't support the upside that the younger Royals pitchers have.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Walk Years, Part Three

Time for me to finish of my series of walk year players. These are five more guys (end of the alphabet, middle of the draft) that I think could be impact guys, because they have talent, a track record of production, and the added incentive of a big payday as a reward for a successful season.

John Lackey, P, Los Angeles Angels: I really don't like that he started this year with an injury, because I had him pegged early for a good season and arm injuries to pitchers scare me. Nonetheless, I could still see him putting up Cy Young quality numbers when he returns. Last year's numbers of 3.01 and 1.21 are duplicable, in my opinion, and I'd waive my usual avoidance of injured pitchers to pick him up if I had the chance.

Brad Penny, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: Everyone in the fantasy world dislikes Brad Penny, because they know he's a different pitcher after the All-Star Break than before. I'm going to run against the grain, though, because he ended 2007 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.31. He falls so far in drafts, it's unbelievable, and his owners will often trade him for nothing in June. At age 29, he's looking for the big payday, and I expect him to put up a full season of big numbers. Grab him for nothing at midseason if he isn't readily available now.

Oliver Perez, P, New York Mets: You couldn't ask for a much better situation than to be pitching in New York at age 27 with the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes supporting you. Perez has all the ingredients for success: youth (but not immaturity any longer), a talented supporting cast, and the extra motivation of a big contract year. Remember that 2.98 ERA he had in Pittsburgh in 2004? As a loyal Pirates fan, I do, and I see it as a reasonable ceiling for 2008. I don't know if he'll get to 1.15 WHIP or 239 K's, but those are very possible. The ceiling is as high as ever for Perez in his walk year.

Mark Prior, P, San Diego Padres: I know... another injured pitcher... but I can't resist his talent. He'll be off the 60-day DL on June 1, and all indications are he'll be ready to pitch. The reason he was a consensus first overall draft pick (even though he went second to Joe Mauer) and jumped almost immediately into the bigs is that he has amazing talent throwing a baseball. Prior is on a $1 million, incentive-laden deal, with the added incentive of a potential big payday for a healthy and effective season. He's a low-risk pickup who could provide massive rewards (don't forget that as a bonus, he's in the pitcher's haven of Petco Park). If you have the spot, stash the 27-year-old former phenom. You could do much worse.

Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit Tigers: In this very forum, Renteria has been called overrated, but I can't write him off. I remember how much he struggled with Boston in 2005, but I don't see a repeat in Detroit this year. He's hitting leadoff as long as Curtis Granderson is out, which is only an extra opportunity to accumulate some runs. If he moves down in the lineup later, he'll pick up extra RBI opportunities - I see the lineup movement as an extra chance to balance his stats. I'm not saying the 32 year-old will carry your team, but I love having him if you can't nail one of the Big Three.

Well, that's my list of my favorite names heading into 2008. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. Remember that this isn't a foolproof strategy, but to me it's a consistent indicator of who is likely to overachieve. Check back at season's end to see how I did. 

The Day in Review

So it's definitely early, but I'm certainly glad I targeted Jon Garland late in drafts on a regular basis. He definitely showed his stuff against Minnesota, with 8 innings and only one run allowed. Granted, he didn't strike out a single batter, but that's why he was available in the 19th round.

Injury Watch:

• The big name of the day is Pedro Martinez. He left his start with a tweaked left hamstring. This is not what the Mets - or fantasy owners - wanted to hear, as a DL stint is likely this early in the season (why risk him?). Hold on Pedro, for now, because he still could come back and be valuable later.
  
• Josh Beckett should be back in the Red Sox rotation on Sunday.

Other news: The Rays exercised their option on Carl Crawford. Not really a big surprise, but it removes him from the category of "walk-year stud," unfortunately for me and the rest of his fantasy owners. Dice-K put up a strong 9 K's in only 6.2 innings against Oakland - hopefully this will be the start of a great season for him. Juan Pierre did start today, but hit 7th and was removed for a pinch hitter in the 6th. Keep your eyes open on how this situation plays out - the best thing for him right now would be an injury in the LA outfield, because that contract is just too hefty to move. 

That's what you need to know for today.