I have participated in numerous fantasy leagues throughout the course of my baseball fandom and, without exception, somebody in said leagues always makes somewhat drastic roster decisions based on opening week statistics. Chris Shelton hit 9 HR in 13 April Games in 2006 and numerous people rushed to the waiver wire to pick up this second coming of Babe Ruth. Unfortunately for them Shelton hit 7 more HR during the next 102 games and finished as the most disappointing/overrated fantasy player of the year depending how you look at things. While Shelton is merely one example there are always examples like this and, for whatever reason, many of us still have not learned that you cannot tell much about a player after the opening week of a season.

I am sure many people have rushed to get their hands on Nate McLouth and/or Xavier Nady but, really, do you expect to see these guys with OPS counts of above .900 or HR-RBI in the 25-95 range at season's end? If not, then why drop someone who may be in the midst of a slow start for someone overachieving now?

Though it may seem obvious the sample sizes in just 5-7 games are incredibly minute; because the statistics are not significant or stable it makes no sense to make drastic moves involving players that can only disappoint. The problem here is that we will always be one step behind. Think of it as similar to the stock market in the sense that you want to buy low and sell high; in fantasy baseball you never know which players will get off to hot starts so what happens is we buy them when they are at their peak and fail to find takers when they inevitably plummet back to Earth.

I opted not to show statistics in this post simply because I want readers to understand drastic decisions SHOULD NOT be made based on just this week. Jeff Keppinger may look great but he is filling an injury void right now; when Alex Gonzalez returns his job may be in jeopardy. AJ Pierzynski currently has the highest everything but, come on, it's AJ Pierzynski. He will be lucky to have a .265/.330/.430 by season's end.

Unless somebody has proven himself to be consistent in a certain statistic do not go crazy with only opening week numbers. Or, if you are going to base decisions this early make sure you do not drop somebody that is off to a slow start but will no-doubtedly pick it up.

There is a reason that many people will say "Well it's just the first week" when asked about their star player's slow start: it literally is just the first week. If we are quick to point that out to slow starts we should be equally wary, if not moreso, about hot starts.