The Day in Review

I'm sure Pete isn't in the mood to cover sports after the Pittsburgh loss, so I'll cover the Saturday. Not a lot with injuries, so let's get through them...

Injury News:

• David Ortiz felt something in his hand after fouling off a pitch. My bet is that he doesn't hit the DL, but misses a game or two. Monitor the situation if you own him, and hopefully it's nothing big.
• Conor Jackson strained his quad and had an MRI on the muscle. With Chad Tracy returning, the 'Backs will be careful with their young first basemen.

Notable Performances:

• Jay Bruce went 3-5 with a walk off homerun to go with his other two runs in the game. Will he bat .579 all year? No, but what he's shown so far is going to be around for years.
• Jonathon Broxton blew the lead for Chad Billingsley, and I'm concerned in general for stud middle relievers. Carlos Marmol also gave up a solo shot while saving out a two run game, and has been arguably overworked also.
• John Banks of the Padres threw a complete game, giving up only an unearned run in the ninth. I'll have to look at minor league numbers to judge his value, but he's now thrown sixteen scoreless innings on the year. Justin Germano-esque?
• Jacoby Ellsbury stole three bags today, bringing his total to a lofty 26 SB and 2 CS. His average isn't reminiscent of last season, but the runs should always be there.
• Mark Reynolds hit two homeruns, and the streaky hitter might catch fire fighting for his position against Chad Tracy. The battle will get easier if C. Jackson finds the DL, and I think he will. In the same game, Brandon Webb threw a complete game shutout for his tenth win.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

A different sort of Fantasy Roundtable Discussion this week: more about the game of fantasy than about the game of baseball. I for one welcome the change; as I've said before, too few people appreciate the fun of the game and instead get lost in the competitiveness. The question was as follows...

Who do you consider your biggest fantasy rival and describe your most gratifying victory and most painful defeat involving them?

I'll leave you to guess at who my biggest rival was (spoiler: it's on the post here). I encourage you to check out the post, as I would be happy to increase traffic to Rudy's site over at Razzball. He's posted here and we appreciate that, so check out the site and comment away. Should be good for some funny stories.

The Day in Review

What a comeback for the Cubbies today! Zach had to be delighted.

Injury News

• Chone Figgins is on the disabled list, retroactive to May 22. His right hamstring is irritated - sound familiar? Stay posted.
• Travis Hafner is also on the DL, relative to May 26, with a sore shoulder. 
• Hanley Ramirez left Friday's game with a thumb contusion. 
• Update on Eric Byrnes: both hamstrings are torn. It might be time to cut him, because even if/when he returns from the DL, owners cannot expect him to be very effective.

Notable Performances

• Jay Bruce continues to amaze with another four hits last night. He scored two runs and drove in another. In the same game, Chipper Jones had an 0-for-5, dropping his average to .409. Looks like I spoke a little soon...
• Ryan Howard keyed a 12-run attack by Philadelphia, with a 1-for-2, 1 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI night. It's about time he woke up.
• Russell Martin had a 4-for-4, 3 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR night for LA. The HR is only his fourth of the year, and coupled with his lack of steals, he's still been a slight disappointment this year. Then again, with a .326 average, he's still more valuable than most catchers.
• Ryan Braun also had a 4-for-4 night, with 2 R, 2 RBI and a HR. He's at .299 for the year and picking back up after a slow week.

That about covers it... Cliff Lee did give up some runs for a change, and Chris Duncan is now in the minors. That's what you need to know about the day.

What's with those Florida Teams? [Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla]

Oh, those first place Florida Teams! The Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays are both having stellar seasons, and leading their respective divisions. How is it that the teams from down South can dominate their northern rivals?

The first key to Florida's success is Hanley Ramirez, who belonged in conversations with Chase Utley in April but has actually faded in May. Still, project his numbers over a whole season and you've got outstanding five-category production. The good news about Ramirez is that his walk rate is up, but the bad news is that he's striking out 25% of the time and his slugging percentage is way down (even though he's still hitting homers, he's barely hitting any doubles). His May slump could potentially - hopefully - be attributed to manager Fredi Gonzalez moving him into the third spot. However, he was moved back to leadoff last week, and so far hasn't set the world on fire (.690 OPS). Still, Ramirez is one of the game's great hitters, and there's no doubt he'll find his stroke soon.

Second baseman Dan Uggla has picked up in May where Ramirez left off in April. His OPS for the month is a ridiculous 1.389, and he has 12 HR, 26 RBI and 27 R with 3 games remaining. Most power hitters are notoriously streaky (Sammy Sosa, David Ortiz, Jim Thome come to mind), and obviously Uggla is having a spectacular month. It's unlikely that he'll maintain his BABIP of .362, and I imagine his 29.4% strikeout rate will catch up to him sometime. Still, for fantasy owners, enjoy his streak while it lasts! He's done a stellar job carrying the Marlins and will hopefully be able to produce for the rest of the season, but I say the numbers indicate you ought to try and sell high.

As for the rest of the team... First baseman Mike Jacobs is walking a little less than I'd like (5% BB%), but his HR/FB ratio and K% are right in line with the career numbers of prodigious power hitter David Ortiz. Plus, his .274 BABIP should improve as the season goes on. Josh Willingham has cut down on his K%, but has a high BABIP which is probably contributing to his high BA. Jeremy Hermida and Jorge Cantu are mediocre, and should continue to be so all season. And prospect Cameron Maybin awaits his call-up later in the season. He has 7 HR and 12 SB this season in the minors, and though his .242 batting average is troubling, his .350 OBP indicates he's still making things happen. This post is already getting too long, so I'll continue with their pitchers in another segment. In short, look for Ramirez to turn it around, Jacobs to be for real, and Uggla to slow down as the season goes on.

The Day in Review

Two games continue, one in which the Cubs are going to continue Colorado's losing streak on the road. Now at nine games, the streak of poor offensive play may scare off teams from acquiring mile high sluggers. But around the league...

Injury News:

• After we wrote about him in our May Flowers article, Frank Thomas promptly got hurt, and now hit the DL with a strained quad ligament. Thomas said the MRI looked pretty bad, so don't expect a quick return. He's probably worth cutting loose.
• Troy Percival will in fact find himself of the DL after straining his hamstring. Dan Wheeler will fill in during his absence.
• Billy Butler isn't hurt, but you'll find small red letters next to his name nonetheless. Those letters will be "NA", for "optioned to the minors for struggling against righties". I think he'll mash again soon, and maybe the time will help him figure out the northpaws.

Notable Performances

• Ian Stewart came up to play second base, and so far tonight sits a homerun short of hitting for the cycle. He's been on fantasy radar for awhile, and might be a decent fill in for Aaron Hill owners if the latter suffers from his collision. Otherwise, he's only worth a look in deep leagues.
• Why does Chipper Jones' average keep increasing? Another night he hits .500.
• Dana Eveland was rocked by Toronto to my surprise. It was hit worst outing of the year and shouldn't be worth worrying about.
• Kevin Slowey, he of the great pitcher name, tossed a complete game against the Royals, giving up one run and fanning six. He's spot start worthy, but gives up too many homeruns, somewhat predictably in bandbox ballparks.
• Randy Johnson is in line for the win against the Giants, striking out nine in the process. It's amazing how good he is after all these years.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starting: Weekend Edition

Here we are on Thursday, so let's look at some positive matchups for over the weekend. Kershaw will pitch again, so there's going to be a lot of hype (of course, he isn't a free agent and won't be any time soon). As a side note, the way I do this is by "Watch Listing" marginal pitchers I consider spot start worthy, and checking their opponents. The flaw is that I may miss a pitcher who I don't think of as particularly viable, so if you have such a pitcher in mind, let me know and I'll add him into the data.

Friday: Todd Wellemeyer goes against Pittsburgh, which is always a good matchup and Wellemeyer has been solid against the Pirates this season, though not amazing. Greg Maddux at San Francisco is a great matchup, as he's given up only one run in fourteen innings against the team this year. If neither of the former are available and you really want to start someone, Mike Mussina has great career numbers against Minnesota, and his recent struggles could be corrected against the similarly struggling Twins offense.

Saturday: Literally, I see nothing for this day. Jon Lester is probably owned, and Garrett Olson against Boston can't be counted on for success. Resist any temptations.

Sunday: Darrell Rasner against the Twins is a decent spot start, though I think all of the Yankees will suffer in the wins column without Joba in the bullpen. Paul Byrd has never succeeded against the Royals, and I don't expect that to change. New York's left-hand heavy lineup could give the righty Blackburn trouble, though he's actually done better versus lefties this season (.290 BAA vs. .316 BAA, yes, neither number is in line with his 3.39 ERA because he gives up a ton of singles). Sean Gallagher was great against the Dodgers, but pretty inconsistent so far this year. Still, at home against the injury plagued Rockies is worth a look considering the scarcity of options this weekend.

The Day in Review

I'm sure Zach enjoyed the Chicago victory over LA much more than I did. Can't comment on more than the last inning because I was engrossed in the hockey game. Onwards and upwards.

Injury News

• Ian Kennedy hit the DL for the New York Yankees, which all but assures that Joba Chamberlain will be in the rotation as soon as Monday. Kennedy is fantasy irrelevant; he'll probably be held in the minors for a while once he's healthy.
• Troy Percival left the game with an injured hamstring. Bummer, he had two K's and was in line for another save. Dan Wheeler or Al Reyes could be a source of cheap saves as one of fantasy's underrated relievers will likely miss some time.

Notable Performances

• Alex Gordon had a nice night, going 3-for-5 with 2 R and an RBI. His batting average is approaching the .300 territory, and he could provide some good value.
• Jose Reyes was also 2-for-5, with 2 R, a  and HR, one RBI and a SB. 
• Joey Votto, trying not to be outdone by fellow youngster Jay Bruce, was 3-for-3 with 3 R, 2 RBI, and a SB. 
• Shane Victorino, see post below, had a great night, going 3-for-4 with 2 R and 2 SB.

And... the Pens won tonight! Sorry, hockey haters, but I waited until the end of the post... that's the best I can do. That's what you need to know about the day.

Inside the Numbers: May Flowers

For a lot of fantasy owners, the game is all about numbers. In theory, this is appropriate, but only if you know which numbers are important. The common flaw is to quickly click "Season Stats" and gloat over your high homerun totals, high average, low ERA, etc. But because baseball is a long season, much longer than most crossovers from Fantasy Football Leagues are prepared to analyze, its important to consider how a player is doing recently. I wanted to look at a few players who are treated as marginal but have performed much better than their Season Stats would indicate.

Aaron Rowand: Roward is universally snubbed in every league I've participated this year, despite a great season last year. Of course, this is due to his move to San Francisco, a crippling pitcher's park. However, while Rowand's seven homeruns suggest hit power will never be the same, six of them have come in the past month. Over this span, he has hit .362. The RBIs will always be lower than in Philadelphia, but Rowand is good enough to be traded for, especially if an owner doesn't see him as the long-term 3rd or 4th OF option that he is.

Adam LaRoche: The Pirates first basemen starts notoriously slow, and despite batting .295 over the past month, his season AVG sits at a paltry .236. Over that month he has outhit Derrek Lee, ranking as the eighth-best first basemen. He's a solid fit for a utility spot on any team, and while I don't think of him as a great option, he's surely worth a look.

Kevin Youkilis: If Youk has 3rd base eligibility in your league, he's been the third best over the past month. He's hit more homeruns over that span than Chipper Jones, David Wright, and Aramis Ramirez (only losing to Ryan Braun and tying Kevin Kouzmanoff with seven). He isn't a sexy pick, but is consistently good, plays for a formidable offense, and stays healthy.

Shane Victorino: After an injury-plagued, slow start, Victorino has come back strong. Both of his homeruns and 9 of his 10 SBs have come in the past month, while he's batted .299. As Pete said, he's been a disappointment so far, but if he keeps this pace up he will be worth the pick. Maybe his owner is caught up in the season stats...

Frank Thomas, Jason Giambi: Both DHs have hit well lately after brutal beginnings. I think neither is more than a fill-in, but if you have an injury on your team and can fit one of these guys into your Utility spot, you could do much worse. Giambi has hit .286 with five homeruns, while Thomas has made the best of Oakland with a .346 BA and four of his seven homeruns.

I'll be back later in the week to look at pitchers. Until then, good luck trading.

The Day in Review

Well, I wish I could hang in their and wait till all the games are complete, but its getting late and I'm getting tired. Before I drift off, I wanted to take a look at what's happened so far... At least I can talk about Jay Bruce's debut, right? Well, it was good enough that it will have to wait until the Notable Performances section, so I'm sure you are at the edge of your seat.

Injury News

• Dice-K will probably miss a start after leaving Tuesday due to a shoulder strain. Any fatigue is cause for concern, since he really struggled down the stretch last season.
• After playing for exactly one game post-DL, Chone Figgins may find himself back on the list. It would be retroactive to last Wednesday, so it'd only be a half-DL stint if he returns when eligible.
• Travis Hafner, who has struggled again this year, was out of the lineup today and may land on the DL due to a sore shoulder. There's not much you can do but sit back and wait, which you should be used to doing on the Cleveland slugger.
• Eric Byrnes hit the DL after trying to play through a strained hamstring. For owners, this is good news, because it will give him time to rest the muscle and return to form. In the meantime, you should have a spare roster spot.
• Gary Sheffield, who I had long since given up hope on, is hitting the DL with a strained oblique. He's out a couple of weeks, so I'd recommend cutting him loose since he's not likely to be the same again.
• Pedro Martinez is set to start June 3rd against the Giants. He was good after his injury last season, so there's some cause for optimism. And that is a nice matchup for his return.

Notable Performances

• Jay Bruce reached in all five plate appearances, going 3-3 with a 2B, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 RBI, but only one stolen base. The Reds have him in the two hole, before Griffey, so those SBs I mentioned could end up in double digits.
• The Yankees are in a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, but no word yet whether tonight will be Joba Chamberlain's last relief appearance. I disagree with the move from a baseball perspective, but for fantasy owners, more innings from the youngster will reward the infrequent early season appearances.
• Adam Dunn launched his 14th homer of the season, going 2-5 with four ribbies. He's really come around after a terrible start to the season.
• Josh Hamilton also went 2-5 with a homerun, but added five ribbies to avoid being outshined. He's been out of this world so far this season, but I think all the Triple Crown predictions are a bit premature.
• Jeremy Bonderman has been making quick work of the Angels, so far pitching six scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out six. I keep expecting him to play like he did two years ago.
• Ian Snell? Just not any good (7 ER in 5 IP). I also think Ubaldo Jimenez gets too much recognition after his success in last season's Rocktober (tonight, 7 ER in 4 IP).

That's what you need to know about the day.

.400: Will Jones or Berkman Displace Teddy Ballgame?

1941. That's the last time any major league baseball player has managed to hit .400 for an entire season. Many years, there are contenders, who fade as the season goes on or cannot quite break the barrier. This year's contenders are Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman. At season's end, will either one have a .400 batting average? 

I wanted to look at some numbers. I start by attempting to measure luck - in this case, I use BABIP. Granted, anyone who hits .400 in the modern era will need some good luck. Nonetheless, an analyst can only expect so much luck. Jones has a BABIP of .415 this year, almost a hundred points above his career number (.321). On the positive side, Jones had a BABIP of .343 and .352 in '06 and '07. This upwards trend gives some indication that he could maintain a high BABIP; nonetheless, I don't expect him to keep up a BABIP of .400 at season's end.

Berkman has a .397 BABIP, which is only 70 points off his career .327 mark. In 2001, Berkman did maintain a BABIP of .371 over a 156 game season, so he has proven before that he can maintain a high number. If he continues to hit for ridiculous power (SLG .759 this year), though, there won't be any reason he can't keep the BABIP high.

Larry Walker and Todd Helton, two the recent challengers of the .400 barrier, were both able to maintain BABIP well above their career averages (20 point difference for Helton, 40-50 point difference for Walker). It's possible to keep the BABIP inflated for an entire season, but it's difficult to predict whether the aging Jones or the slugging Berkman will be able to do so.

What else goes into hitting .400? Well, it's easier to maintain a high batting average if you see good pitches to hit. Both Jones and Berkman are well-protected in their respective lineups, Jones by Mark Teixeira and Berkman by Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. Most pitchers are going to be forced to pitch to Jones and Berkman regularly enough that they should continue to see pitches to hit (unlike, for instance, Barry Bonds toward the end of his career).

Finally, I'd like to consider games played. It's easier to hit .400 in 20 games than 40 games, and it's easier to hit .400 in 130 games than 162. Jones has a distinct advantage here. Because of his age and recent injury history, Atlanta has been trying to rest Jones regularly. He seems to get days off weekly. If he can avoid any major injury, this scenario will likely help him to stay "hot" without an extended period of time off, while minimizing the number of games played, which should help him keep his batting average higher. Berkman has no such advantage - he will most likely be playing 150-160 games. 

Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones certainly won't be the last people to take a run at batting .400. Can either of them sustain this type of production for an entire season? My personal feeling is that they won't. They are well protected in their respective lineups, but I don't think either one will keep up their high BABIPs. There's a reason they play the games, though, and maybe we'll be lucky enough to see Teddy Ballgame's record fall in 2008.

Trendspotting: Clayton Kershaw, Jay Bruce

It's Monday night as I write this, and I know that I have no hope at getting Clayton Kershaw with my number four waiver in my Experts League. I was happy enough to get Bartolo Colon, only because no one wanted to use their waiver on him, even if it meant a blind faith in eleven other players passing on the Dodgers phenom. But now that an imminent add hangs in the balance, another contender for that number one waiver priority comes to light--Jay Bruce. Between the two, who should you add?

Clayton Kershaw: The easy answer to this question should be "whichever position you need more". However, with the upside of both candidates, its simply not that easy. Kershaw, he of a front page article on Yahoo! (the actual page, completely unrelated to sports), could in theory be Phil Hughes or Tim Lincecum. As I mentioned after his debut, his issue has been yielding walks, but he's gotten away with it by giving up exactly zero homeruns while in the minors (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). His K/9 was 9.76, in line with his seven K's in six last night. Compare that to Lincecum's 13.35 K/9 in the minors last year before his callup and you'll realize Kershaw is a bit overhyped, at least relative to Timmy. Kershaw and Lincecum had similar walk rates, play in pitchers' parks, and front relatively weak offenses. The latter sported a 4.00 ERA by seasons end, with it hovering in that ballpark most of the season. I think similar expectations are realistic for Kershaw--he will provide about a K per inning, suffer for lack of run support, and give you quality starts without blowing you away.

Jay Bruce: Bruce hasn't had an at-bat in the majors, but teams in my leagues had named their team after him for awhile now. He is the stuff of legends, but is currently overshadowed by Kershaw on several of the most common providers (ESPN, Yahoo!, to name a few). Over three levels of A-ball in 2006, Bruce gathered 26 HRs in 143 games, never sporting a BA less than .300. This year, he's already hit ten bombs and sports a .363 BA; translation? He's ready. With his propensity to strike out (every four at-bats in the minors) that BA will come back to earth, but the Reds should be able to protect him with Phillips, Griffey, Dunn, Votto, and Encarnacion in that lineup. If he sees good pitches, he has the power to make the best of them. ZiPS projects him hitting .266 with 20 HRs, assuming he gets over 500 at bats. That average seems a bit low in light of his success in the minors. Matt Kemp has managed to bat above .300 despite similar strikeout struggles, so their is no reason Bruce can't bat .280+. I expect he will, batting close to .300 while launching about 20 HRs and stealing a handful of bases (he stole only 2 in the minors this year, but picked up 19 in 2006). Playing at the Great American Ballpark is a bonus, and the NL Central pitching isn't too pretty with a few exceptions.

The Day in Review

Man, those Penguins are really letting me down. I'm angry, so let's give baseball a look.

Injury News

• Okay, I'm really stretching it here. Clay Bucholz had a nice start in the minors and would normally be on track to rejoin Boston's rotation this weekend. However, he's being held off right now because the Sox need to figure out what to do with his replacement, Bartolo Colon, who has four shutout innings so far against Seattle.

Notable Performances

• Hello, Mark Teixeira! The Atlanta slugger drove in four as Brandon Webb finally struggled (note: still struck out 8 in 4 innings). Brian McCann also homered in this one.
• Hello, Nick Markakis! Three hits, including a HR, may indicate his slump is coming to a close.
• Hello, Philadelphia Phillies! Chase Utley drove in six, with Ryan Howard adding another three, plus three walks. Only Pat Burrell (0-for-4) didn't figure in on the scoring somehow.

Well, it was a short slate today, and thus a short day in review. Hope you enjoyed your holiday weekend! That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starting - Week Edition

Here we go again. I actually like this tool, but mostly because my favorite leagues are head-to-head weekly leagues, which I encourage you to try. As a side note, how do FA pickups work in auction leagues?

Monday: Arizona has averaged seven runs over the first three games of their Atlanta series, so Jair Jurrjens matchup isn't as intriguing as it might be. Still, the attractive home ERA and Arizona's declining May offense suggest a pickup is worthy, simply because Jurrjens should be owned either way. Darrell Rasner hasn't played at Camden Yards, but shutout the O's last time they faced earlier this year. He should be good for the win at least.

Tuesday: Greg Smith should be owned, but in shallow leagues he may still be a FA worth adding against the Blue Jays at home. Vicente Padilla, Nick Blackburn, and Shawn Hill all have what look to be favorable matchups (@TB, @ KC, @SD) but Padilla has been rocked by the Rays in the past and I can't see that changing with an improved offense. The other two are solid adds.

Wednesday: Garza against Texas is why I recommended not owning him, because it's not a good matchup. I like Wakefield at Safeco, but other than that there isn't much worth the pickup.

Thursday: John Danks hasn't lost to the Rays, and that trend should continue. Dana Eveland is also worth owning, especially for his matchup at home against the Jays. I didn't expect the A's to be successful, but with Duchscherer, Harden, Smith, and Eveland, plus the eventually callup of Gio Gonzalez, they have a formidable rotation that is underrated by fantasy leaguers.

The Day in Review

Well, I've been in a bad mood after watching all of the Pirates-Cubs game only to witness Soriano lose a fly ball in the sun with two outs in the ninth, leading to the second blown save in two days and an eventual loss. Hopefully though, you've been enjoying the weather (at least its been nice in my part of the woods). In baseball...

Injury News

• Matt Holliday strained his hamstring trying to record an infield single in the ninth. This is the reason why players look like they could run faster to first most of the time--the risk of pulling something going from dead stop to full speed isn't worth the reward. He should be back after the 15 days, but no one of fantasy relevance will see increased playing time during the interim.
• Carmona was originally considered day-to-day, but an MRI of his hip has led to Indians to doubt his return for at least four weeks. After his workload last year, it was likely he'd miss some time eventually, but he will be missed.
• I won't report of Smoltz's non-setback. I just find it curious we received this non-news after Smoltz exclaimed that he wouldn't report on his injury before his return.

Notable Performances

• Clayton Kershaw had a quality start, striking out seven. The most interesting thing was the five hits and one walk, since he's expectedly less hittable and much less controlled. Whichever inconsistency gives will determine his fantasy worth.
• In the fantasy roundtable, I mentioned Alex Rodriguez as a disappointment this season. His stolen base today though is a good indication that his legs are healthy, so you're better off riding him through any rough patches.
• After terrible starts, Sabathia and Verlander have turned it around recently. Both put up solid starts today without recording a win. A deeper look at their numbers is needed before decided if they are worth buying or selling.
• Jorge Cantu's roto stats for the day? 4-7, 2 HR, 4 runs and 4 RBI. This is almost positively the last time you will hear his name.
• You might have already cut your losses on him, but Kevin Kouzmanoff hit two homers today. Adrian Gonzalez stole the show though with a walk-off homerun in the bottom of the eighteenth.
• Carlos Quentin also launched two, and from the third spot in the White Sox lineup. He really has been their best player. Jose Contreras gave up only two runs over eight innings, striking out ten, but didn't get the win.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

What Zach failed to mention about yesterday's Cubs-Pirates game was that I've seen better baseball played in little league. Coupled with the Pens loss today, and it hasn't been my best weekend.

Injury News

• Brad Hawpe and Clint Barmes are both DL-bound in Colorado. Neither one is irreplaceable, so scan the waiver wires and make a move, because these aren't long-term injuries.
• Andruw Jones will be out 4-6 weeks with knee surgery. If you still owned him, shame on you.
• Nomar Garciaparra just got moved to the 60-day DL. If you still owned him, shame on you.
• (old news) Jason Werth hit the DL, which should mean more playing time for the so-far disappointing Shane Victorino. Also, Ryan Doumit looks to be activated Thursday. The pathetic Pirates should waste no time getting him into the lineup, and he's probably worth grabbing if he's available.

Notable Performances

• Justin Duscherer threw 8 innings against Boston, allowing only a single to David Ortiz in the seventh. He's done a nice job transitioning from reliever to starter, though if you consider Oakland a mirage you can't be that thrilled to have him. If he keeps pitching this well, though, fantasy owners won't have a choice.
• Brett Myers and Jeff Francis both lost today. They continue to underperform badly.
• On the other side of the spectrum, Randy Johnson had a nice 10-K, 0 BB performance.
• Tampa Bay, Detroit, and the Yankees all reached double-digits, while the Mets scored nine. Evan Longoria (2 HR), Bobby Abreu (4 RBI), Magglio Ordonez (2 HR, 6 RBI), and David Wright (HR & SB) paced their respective lineups.

And no, the Pirates winning in 14 against the Cubs doesn't make me feel any better. That's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

Another week down, and I think this was my favorite Roundtable Discussion thus far. I encourage you to check it out, and express your own satisfaction concerning those underperforming draft picks. The question?

Which players that you bought or drafted this March do you regret doing so? In other words, which players has caused you the most Buyer's Remorse.

I think it because it has an economic feel to it, full of sunk cost implications. Thank RotoJunkie for the idea, and check out their post here.

The Day in Review

Just got back from my first witnessing of a Cubs victory. It was against the Pirates, so the W was to be expected, but it took three tries over the past two seasons. I guess three times was the charm, but anyway, lets look around the league.

Injury News:

• Fausto Carmona struggled today, but the evening only got worse after he strained his hip covering first. Rotoworld suggests the pitcher will be day-to-day, and with the AL-Central a bit competitive, the Indians will probably try to avoid starting Jeremy Sowers.
• Joe Borowski is back in action, while Gagne has his the 15 day DL. I just hate playing closers with obscene ERAs, and there's nothing much better to expect from the former journey man.
• Smoltz is starting a rehab assignment and should be back in early June. I think he's a great target-rack up saves while they are scarce, and possibly end up with a starter once you have a nice cushion in saves. Ideal, without the pain of a trade.

Notable Performances:

• The biggest news is that the Dodgers are calling up Clayton Kershaw to pitch Sunday against the Cardinals. He's worth an add in any type of league, though there could be growing pains for the youngest pitcher since King Felix to enter the league.
• Bedard was murdered by the Yankees, raising his ERA to an ugly 4.70. He should come back soon though, with a career ERA of 2.69 in June.
• Zack Greinke also got pegged with a poor outing, losing to Roy Halladay who pitched the complete game. Halladay was extremely effective, doing it all in 104 pitches, so while his workload has been troubling, this one shouldn't count against him.
• Matt Garza threw 7.1 innings of shutout ball, so hopefully you spot started him. The four walks are the reason he shouldn't be trusted long term. 
• Hunter Pence has been on a bit of a tear, and today he hit two more homers to bring his total to seven. I picked him this week as my Sunday League Batter.
• Edinson Volquez struck out twelve in six innings while only giving up one run. He isn't on the line for the win. Rich Harden proved he is good when he's healthy, which is rarely.

All five pitchers that were notable are on one of my fantasy teams, so despite three of five throwing well, my ERA is going to tank. I know, you don't care. But that's what you need to know for the day.

The Splits: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday

So apparently, if I'm not struck with something brilliant for an article, I retreat to minor analysis of two players. I'm so thrilled to be bringing Bay and Holliday back together, because I still remember two years ago when the two were considered equal in fantasy circles. Times have certainly changed. 

I bring up the two because both share a similar home/away split. Bay and Holliday both hit much better in their home ballparks (this is a reversal of career trends for Bay in 2008 but right in line with Holliday's overall production). I bring this up also because both could potentially be traded. According to FanGraphs, the Rockies may shop Holliday if they continue to underperform, because his contract is up at the end of 2009 and he's represented by super-agent Scott Boras. Bay has been on the block in Pittsburgh for a while. What does all this mean? Let's talk about each player individually.

Jason Bay: As I stated, Bay's splits strongly favor hitting in PNC Park in 2008. He has 8 HR there, compared to 3 on the road, and is hitting over .300, compared to a batting average around the Mendoza Line outside the City of Champions. If you're a Bay owner, here's good news: The Buccos play 19 home games in June (9 on the road). I'm not sure how to make of his history producing better outside of PNC, either; it could be good news if you want him to get traded, or it could simply be a statistical anomaly. Either way, he's hitting the ball significantly better in the 'burgh, which means good things for fantasy owners as long as he's a Pirate. I see him producing very well for most of June, then getting moved toward the end of the month.

Holliday: Holliday is definitely the more interesting case because the split is so dramatic. Fangraphs points out that within Coors, he's Albert Pujols; outside of Coors, he's Aubrey Huff. The Rockies have a 50/50 split of the schedule for the rest of the season, with the exception of September. If you're in a head-to-head league that has playoffs, grab Holliday around the trade deadline. I might even overpay for him, because the Rockies play 15 home games before ending with their last six on the road in the season's final month. Pitching match-ups against San Diego and Arizona may dull this advantage; nonetheless, Holliday is doing his best Chipper Jones impersonation by hitting .369 at home thusfar. His career OPS at Coors is over 1.000 and he nearly doubles his HR and RBI totals in negligibly more games (lucky 13, to be exact). I'll try to re-post this later in the season, but remember as you gear up for the stretch drive: Matt Holliday can definitely take your team far in a playoff format in 2008.

The Day in Review

Ahhh.... May 22, the anniversary of my birth. Always a special day for me. How did MLB reward me today? Let's find out.

Injury News

• I'm stretching here. Victor Martinez left the game with an injured finger, but should be back in the Cleveland lineup tomorrow. Barely worth mentioning, although keep in mind Brian McCann struggled all of last season because he had a bad thumb.
• Moises Alou hit the DL today, as did Austin Kearns. Chris Young may be headed to the DL after the nasty line drive. Only Young should matter to your team.

Notable Performances

• Boston spanked KC with a grand slam apiece from Mike Lowell and JD Drew. If you're struggling at catcher (Johjima owners, Towles speculators, Salty followers), you may want to glance at Miguel Olivo from KC. He had 5 RBI in the loss and his OPS is over .800 for the season. I'll try to investigate and report back next week.
• Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton are all raking in Texas. Kinsler stole another base while Hamilton hit a walk-off HR in the tenth.
• Adrian Gonzalez hit a 2-run HR, while Ken Griffey Jr. finally hit No. 598.

All hitting... normally I like to diversify, but I feel like that's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starting - Weekend Edition

Let's continue our first tool here at Rotonomics. I would appreciate any feedback on the topic, since this is really our first stray from Editorials and with a limited amount of time, it'd be good to know this research is useful. Also, if you have any ideas for what you think could help fantasy leaguers, let us know in the comments. But alas!

Friday: Tim Wakefield at Oakland isn't a terrible matchup, and the veteran is always a favorite of mine for spot starting. This is especially true in interleague play when the NL-team isn't accustomed to his knuckler. Matt Garza at home against Baltimore is another decent start if he isn't owned in your league, but even if he performs well keep in mind he's still too inconsistent to provide reliable fantasy outings.

Saturday: Saturday looks to be a big day for aces, as few free agents are scheduled for the start. Justin Duchscherer plays Boston, a team he's had a lot of success against (2.66 ERA, 23 Ks in 20 innings of relief). Still, Boston is a poor choice for a spot start, so don't worry about it unless you are going to hold on to the Duch', as he's worth owning.

Sunday: Gil Meche has thrown two quality starts against solid offenses in his past two outings, and I think he will throw well at Toronto. Lester was likely added after his perfect game, and those owners will be rewarded in his start against Oakland. Todd Wellemeyer could benefit from the spacious confines of the Dodgers, just as veterans Mussina and Maddux could enjoy Safeco and Petco. Wellemeyer is your best bet of the bunch, while only Lester has a ton of upside in the strikeout department. 

The Day in Review

A lot went on today, so lets get right to it.

Injury News:

• Eric Gagne is out until further notice due to a stiff shoulder. No word on whether a DL-stint is possible.
• Chris Young was drilled in the nose by a line drive, but it sounds like he will be okay. Ouch. Just, ouch.

Notable Performances:

• Joba Chamberlain pitched two scoreless in relief, representing the beginning of the end for his role out of the bullpen. Just as the young reliever begins his transition into a starter, Dontrelle Willis was activated and placed in the bullpen.
• Bartolo Colon pitched only five innings, but was pretty effective throwing in the mid-nineties with his heater. Let the commentaries begin.
• Dana Eveland threw a complete game against the Rays, striking out five and giving up one run. He could make a fantasy impact well into the summer. Darrell Rasner, who I also featured as a spot start, through seven scoreless for the win against the O's.
• Ben Sheets also threw a complete game, this time against the Pirates. He's been the only hope for the Brewers pitching, and has delivered thus far. 
• Vladimir Guerrero hit two homeruns. Some might say he was due, but as a Guerrero owner I worry that he is far past his peak. Jermaine Dye pretty much did the same thing, with the same sentiment.
• Ryan Howard, on the other hand, also went deep twice, but I wish I could buy low off someone.

It's disappointing that Webb finally lost, and I'm sure Pete is lamenting in some cold, dark room. That isn't important, but the rest is what you need to know for the day. 

Trendspotting: Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin

Normally, when I put these together, I go for some underlying theme connecting the two players (generally position). These are just two players I want to talk about. I was looking at some league leaders and it surprised me to find out that:

Ian Kinsler is a perfect 13-for-13 in SB attempts this year. Hitting .301 in front of major league RBI leader Josh Hamilton, I certainly wouldn't expect the Rangers to be green-lighting him, but they have been and fantasy owners have been reaping rewards. Kinsler is outperforming Brian Roberts and BJ Upton in nearly every statistical category (including both in steals). His OPS is nearly .800 and he's just been hitting the ball very well this season. He hit a HR last night and I'm certain the power will be there at season's end.  Everyone knew Kinsler was a talented ballplayer and he's showing it so far in 2008. I expect his production to continue - assuming you don't own Chase Utley, I'd see if an owner thinks he will be "selling high" by trading Kinsler. 

Russell Martin has really turned things around after a slow start. His 31 walks rank ninth in baseball, and have really helped fuel his OPS, which is around .850. His batting average is also up to .320 after what has been an outstanding month of May for him. I really figured his turn-around would time with Andruw Jones's, but I'm now beginning to wonder if Jones will turn things around. Back to Martin: unfortunately, if you drafted him for steals, those haven't come yet (4 this season). That's a very difficult thing to expect from a catcher, and if you did draft him for steals, you might want to see about picking up Michael Bourne or Willy Taveras (if either is available) or look for a trade. Martin could still end up with 15 steals without too much trouble, though. I might try to move him in July because catchers tend to wear down - I think if you have a high-profile catcher, he could be worth moving that time of year if you get the proper offers. 

The Day in Review

Wonderful news, everybody... the Prodigal Son has returned! Alex Rodriguez is finally off the DL and back in the Yankees lineup. Whether or not he can return to being the best hitter in baseball, of course, remains to be seen.

Injury News

• Jake Peavy hit the 15-day DL with a strained right elbow. If you didn't see this one coming for a while, you might be living under a rock. The good news: no ligament damage, so surgery doesn't seem imminent for the Padres ace.
• Ryan Church and Yunel Escobar collided at the end of the Mets-Braves game. Church went to the hospital with a head injury, while Escobar probably had a knee bruise. Neither injury appears to be serious.
• Eric Gagne has a sore right shoulder. Nothing is going well for him this year, except I suppose that no matter how poorly he pitches, he doesn't lose his job as closer for Milwaukee.

Notable Performances

• Scott Kazmir struck out eight in seven innings against Oakland. He's surprised me with his effectiveness since his return from the DL.
• Cole Hamels struck out 11 Nationals in seven innings, giving up no runs. He was denied the win, however, because the Philly bats couldn't get a run across the board until he left.
• Detroit had the kind of game we've been expecting all year. Edgar Renteria paced them with a 4-for-4, 5 RBI day. He hit a HR, along with Magglio, Guillen, and Granderson.
• Ichiro stole his 21st base last night. Kinda makes up for the low BA and slugging percentages.

Farewell, Mike Piazza. You were an outstanding catcher and an under appreciated hitter, in my opinion. That's what you need to know about the day.

Surveying the Signals: Veteran Starters

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the next week will accompany many editorials concerning the value of veteran starters. It is largely true that veterans such as Greg Maddux are underrated--without flashy strikeout totals their value is ignored in favor of hyped youngsters such as Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez (both struggling, despite preseason touting by many regimes). The next couple nights could start a wave of nostalgia, and I'll outline why...

Greg Maddux: Mad dog faces the Cardinals at home, a team he's had a ton of success against in a stadium he's absolutely dominated. His ERA at home is a puny 1.42 this year, despite striking out only 9 in over 24 innings. Last season he still rocked a low home ERA of 3.59, showing just what advantage Petco offers. A solid outing tonight will open analysts eyes to the low WHIP he could provide, inciting slurs of "undervalued" and "intangibles".

Bartolo Colon: Does anyone know Colon's numbers in the minors this season? He sits at a .64 ERA, reportedly touching the mid-90s with his fastball and sporting an 11:1 K/BB ratio over 14 innings. Throw in matchups with Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore over the next two weeks and the former Cy Young winner will see more hype than he deserves.

Tom Glavine: This one isn't speculation; Glavine already pitched today, throwing six innings of one-run ball against his former team, the Mets. Glavine is a shaky piece of a fantasy rotation, especially after his recent injury woes, but that might not stop people throwing him into the conversation. 

There are plenty of already succeeding veterans, such as Tim Hudson, Mike Mussina, Aaron Cook, and Jose Contreras. Other than Hudson, all will wear done soon enough, but there seems to be enough games that even one impressive start from the bunch could trigger a wave of hype. And if this happens, put yourself in a position to deal away the time bombs. I've already picked up Bartolo Colon, because when you mix name recognition with luck and hype, you make league-winning deals.

The Day in Review

So today, I resolve to not mention hockey on my fantasy baseball blog. How about Jon Lester no-hitting the Kansas City Royals??? What a game! (Lester, by the way, is still not that useful in fantasy. Remember, picking him up tomorrow doesn't get you credit for the no-no). 

Injury News

• John Smoltz had a setback in his recovery. Although most of us in the recent fantasy roundtable agreed that he would be fine in a closer's role, it appears that right now he's unable to do that comfortably. 
• Hideki Okajima has been cleared to throw after some wrist soreness. Hopefully the injury explains his early struggles and he will shutdown hitters the way he did last season.
• Cleveland expects Joe Borowski to be back very soon, possibly by Wednesday.

Notable Performances

• Well, there weren't enough games for a ton of these. Lester obviously is the most notable. Brett Myers threw a little better against Washington (no HR allowed), but still isn't getting any strikeouts.
• Geovanny Soto hit an inside-the-park HR... Always fun to see. Aramis Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a homer, two runs, and two RBI. 
• Josh Hamilton broke 50 RBI with a solo HR. Teammate Ian Kinsler added another solo shot.

With the limited slate of games, this hasn't been a make-or-break day for fantasy. Hopefully you enjoyed Lester's masterful pitching performance.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starting - Week Edition

As our viewership increased, I realized that many reader's might actually come to Rotonomics for more than the editorials. This is good, but I don't think we've been providing the overall assistance such a circumstance demands. Hence, this is our version of "Waiver Wired"--but focusing on spot starters over the course of a week. Unfortunately, I didn't think of this until today, but in the future it will be up Sunday for those of you in weekly leagues.

Monday

Don't be fooled by Wilfredo Ledezma's ridiculous name or low ERA, his WHIP and walk rate paint an entirely different pitcher. I don't mind the home matchup, but at this point in the week there is no use being desperate. Jon Lester is a subpar start against the Royals, despite the latter representing the worst offense in baseball. If you're desperate, he's your man, but I wouldn't take the risk.

Tuesday

There are a lot of options on the second day of the week. Justin Masterson is spot starting for the BoSox and is must add in keeper leagues. Mike Mussina has a nice matchup at home against the O's and has been solid his past three starts. Aaron Cook, Greg Smith, and Manny Parra are all decent adds and I'd consider any of them. If Greg Maddux isn't owned, his home stats have been solid and I expect success against one-time division rival the Cardinals.

Wednesday

Ubaldo Jimenez faces the Giants, but has a career ERA against the team of 4.35. Hopefully someone has picked up Dana Eveland in your league, but his home matchup against the Rays could be a gem. Darrell Rasner is worth a look against the Orioles, but isn't nearly as good as any of the Tuesday slots. I'm not a huge Bartolo Colon believer, but his first three starts would include Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore if he holds his every fifth day spot. 

Thursday

Last time Vincente Padilla played the Twins, he tossed a complete game shutout. Against the meager offense in Minnesota, he is a pretty safe bet with a career ERA of 2.81.

Check back Thursday for a look at the spot starts over the weekend. Things could change before then, so it's easier just to post closer to the point.

The Day in Review

Well, I guess for Pete's sake (no pun intended... okay, I lied) I'll mention that the Penguins are headed to the Stanley Cup. A foreshadowing of a cross-sport dynasty including the Pirates? I think not. But onward!

Injury News

• Jake Peavy is going to miss a start, and possibly more after doctors examine his elbow. Rotoworld offers a provocative quote: "Your arm is sore all the time, but I do feel some of it in the elbow (and) that's cause for concern". I assume last year's NL Cy Young winner was referring to pitchers' arms, but that doesn't sound like a pleasant reality.
• Blalock will return to play first base in an attempt to keep him healthy. If he proves to have recovered well, this adds a little value by decreasing his injury risk.

Notable Performances

• The pitcher's dual of ERA leaders Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez was somewhat predictable for lovers of irony. Lee gave up 5 earned over 5.2 innings, striking out two and getting tagged with his first loss. Volquez pitched decently, giving up two earned over six but walking four. I mentioned how important control was with young pitchers, so if Edinson keeps walking batters he's worth selling high.
• David Ortiz homered twice and put up an impressive statline on the day (3 for 5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs). He should be back, but I'm less optimistic about his teammate Josh Beckett (6 runs in 7 IP today)
• In that same game, Ryan Braun went deep twice. I wasn't a huge believer this offseason, but Braun has put up good numbers after a slow start and I'm happy to rank him ahead of Miguel Cabrera, who I similarly disliked. 
• Orlando Cabrera was touted in our preseason rankings, and while he'd been terrible thus far, his two homer day might indicate improvement as the weather warms in Illinois. If Swisher can't bat leadoff, Cabrera should be solid atop the aging lineup.

One last note-I just traded Alex Rodriguez now that he's about to return. The deal: A-Rod, Rafael Furcal, and Matt Kemp for Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Chone Figgins. It was probably the biggest blockbuster I've ever made, so I'd love some comments. Also, not enough of y'ins post any trades to brag about, so something needs done about that. But for now, that's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Hope everyone is enjoying some of the great baseball being played. This is a long edition of the day in review, featuring the return of our special format!

Injury News

• Roy Oswalt left last night's game in the seventh inning with a strained groin. No word yet on whether or not he will land on the DL.
• Josh Hamilton left the game with exhaustion. Rotoworld doesn't take it too seriously, suggesting Hamilton should simply strike out more often so he doesn't have to run the bases. He's day-to-day, will probably not be in the lineup Sunday.
• Rick Ankiel has a sore shoulder. Now that he's no longer a pitcher, this isn't such a huge deal, but he still could miss some time with the injury.
• Howie Kendrick still isn't ready to return, according to Angels' doctors.

Notable Pitching Performances

• Erik Bedard had a great start, striking out ten in eight innings while allowing only two runs. Hopefully, he's beginning to pitch like the ace everyone drafted him to be. 
• Dice-K allowed two runs in six+ innings against Milwaukee to move to 7-0.
• Max Scherzer allowed only two unearned runs in five innings for Arizona. With Doug Davis on track to return, however, Scherzer may be heading back to the minors. Monitor this situation carefully.
• Rich Harden, he of many injuries, allowed one run in seven innings while striking out eight. He does offer great reward when healthy - don't forget this when considering what to do with him.

Notable Hitting Performances

• What has gotten into Alfonso Soriano? He had another two homerun game, going 5-for-5 with 3 RBI. He's rewarding those who had the patience to hang on to him so far this year.
• Adam Dunn hit his third home run in his past three games. His batting average is an abysmal .211 but he is providing power with 9 HR and 25 RBI this year.
• Carlos Pena is Dunn's statistical equivalent. He matched him yesterday with a 3-run HR, but is hitting a disappointing .214 with 9 HR and 23 RBI.
• Great stat line from David Wright: 3-for-5 with a 2-run HR and a SB. I'd like to be mentioning his name more often on the day in review.

Much to my surprise, Bartolo Colon will pitch for Boston on Wednesday. I don't expect much out of him, but with his history, I guess he's worth watching. That's what you need to know about the day.