Is The NL Primed To Become The Dominant League?
As one of our readers pointed out, the latest Playing With Fire column featured only one NL position player (two if you include DH) in Kevin Orris’ list of “the best of the best” players so far this season. That information alone begs the question: is the dominance in the MLB shifting from the AL to the NL? Fox Sports ran an article on this a couple of days ago. If you click that link and read the article, you will see why clearly this topic needs to be explored further. Dayn Perry did a nice job dissecting absolutely nothing to make anything but a definitive judgment. However, making a definitive judgment at this point is quite impossible. If you want to know the answer you’ll have to wait a couple of years, but I’m going to take my best shot at answering the question with some actual numbers and sound logic.
As Perry pointed out in his article, the AL is 99 games over .500 in interleague play since 2004 and clearly has been the dominant league for quite some time now. However, even with the DH in the AL, the NL has clearly been getting more production out of their offenses this season. David Pinto broke down the stats over at Sporting News and concluded that the reason the NL has been getting more production is because they’re giving more at bats to better, younger players. He wrote:
This bodes well for the Senior Circuit in the long term. Not only are their hitters producing at a higher rate, but their ages are in the range where we can still expect them to maintain or improve their performances. Meanwhile, AL teams keep signing older players such as Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Torii Hunter to long-term contracts. Over the next few seasons, we may see some AL clubs do what the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies have done recently. Tearing teams down to watch young talent develop resulted in a high scoring National League, even without a designated hitter.
The point he makes is valid. The NL does have many more young players with talent than the AL. Although Perry’s article is incredibly inaccurate, the article did do a mildly adequate job of displaying this. However, what neither articles take into account is the idea that many of the young players who are currently in the NL will sign with AL teams. AL teams have been much more willing to shell out big contracts recently. Pinto makes these contracts seem like negatives, but in actuality, the contracts are what have kept the AL ahead of the NL.
However, there is hope for the NL. The recent patterns suggest that the NL teams are going to be a little more open to signing their young stars to big contracts. Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez have been some of the more memorable recent contracts. The Marlins did ship out one of their best stars, Miguel Cabrera, to an AL team but quickly signed Ramirez long-term after that. Furthermore, the Mets won the Santana sweepstakes this past offseason which took the best pitcher in the AL over to the NL.
Overall, although fans don’t like to admit it, baseball is a business. As the clichéd phrase goes: you need to spend money to make money. Perhaps the NL teams are finally learning this. That’s the only way for the NL to take control back from the AL. In the 1960s the NL was dominant because they integrated quicker than the AL. Now in the economic world we live in today, the AL is stronger because they shelled out more money. Once NL teams start shelling out the money, as the Cubs and Mets have begun to do, perhaps finally the NL will equal or surpass the AL’s dominance. Until that day, we are left to speculate on exactly the impact the DH has on the AL and how teams such as the Blue Jays would bode in the NL. The one thing we do know is: money makes the MLB go ‘round.
As Perry pointed out in his article, the AL is 99 games over .500 in interleague play since 2004 and clearly has been the dominant league for quite some time now. However, even with the DH in the AL, the NL has clearly been getting more production out of their offenses this season. David Pinto broke down the stats over at Sporting News and concluded that the reason the NL has been getting more production is because they’re giving more at bats to better, younger players. He wrote:
This bodes well for the Senior Circuit in the long term. Not only are their hitters producing at a higher rate, but their ages are in the range where we can still expect them to maintain or improve their performances. Meanwhile, AL teams keep signing older players such as Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Torii Hunter to long-term contracts. Over the next few seasons, we may see some AL clubs do what the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies have done recently. Tearing teams down to watch young talent develop resulted in a high scoring National League, even without a designated hitter.
The point he makes is valid. The NL does have many more young players with talent than the AL. Although Perry’s article is incredibly inaccurate, the article did do a mildly adequate job of displaying this. However, what neither articles take into account is the idea that many of the young players who are currently in the NL will sign with AL teams. AL teams have been much more willing to shell out big contracts recently. Pinto makes these contracts seem like negatives, but in actuality, the contracts are what have kept the AL ahead of the NL.
However, there is hope for the NL. The recent patterns suggest that the NL teams are going to be a little more open to signing their young stars to big contracts. Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez have been some of the more memorable recent contracts. The Marlins did ship out one of their best stars, Miguel Cabrera, to an AL team but quickly signed Ramirez long-term after that. Furthermore, the Mets won the Santana sweepstakes this past offseason which took the best pitcher in the AL over to the NL.
Overall, although fans don’t like to admit it, baseball is a business. As the clichéd phrase goes: you need to spend money to make money. Perhaps the NL teams are finally learning this. That’s the only way for the NL to take control back from the AL. In the 1960s the NL was dominant because they integrated quicker than the AL. Now in the economic world we live in today, the AL is stronger because they shelled out more money. Once NL teams start shelling out the money, as the Cubs and Mets have begun to do, perhaps finally the NL will equal or surpass the AL’s dominance. Until that day, we are left to speculate on exactly the impact the DH has on the AL and how teams such as the Blue Jays would bode in the NL. The one thing we do know is: money makes the MLB go ‘round.
