“After Saturday’s near-no hitter, there’s really no way to argue against adding A’s hurler Justin Duchscherer”

That was the sub-headline on the Yahoo! Fantasy Sports homepage recently. No reasons to argue against Justin Duchscherer? I can think of a few. Let’s break this statement down a little:

“After Saturday’s near no-hitter,”

I think this is the ultimate example of abusing a small sample size.

“there’s really no way to argue…”

Actually I’m about to do just that.

"…against adding A’s hurler Justin Duchscherer”

12,741 drops. That’s the number that was sitting next to Duchscherer’s name in the latest Buzz Index on Yahoo! So yes, I’d say people can argue against adding him.

Now onto the responsible reporting…

Despite Duchscherer’s red hot start during which he sports a 2.16 ERA with a WHIP of 0.98, the numbers are stacked against him. The first red flag should be the fact that Duchscherer, prior to this year, hadn’t started a game in the majors since 2003. If that isn’t enough you merely need to look at last seasons when he had an ERA of 4.96. And, if that’s still not enough then his age, 30, should be a good indicator that the success isn’t meant to last. Most pitchers break out around 26 or 27. Therefore, at age 30, he should be beginning to decline, not breakout.

Here’s my advice: If Duchscherer is still available in your league add him.

What?!? You just ripped the guy for almost a page. Wait…it gets better.

Hold onto the guy for the next start or two. If he pitches well, trade him right away. If he pitches poorly, take it as a failed experiment and drop him. Remember Brian Bannister’s hot start? If he’s still on your team, you held onto him too long and ended up losing out on a top notch player you could have received in return for him in a trade. Don’t let the same fate befall you with Duchscherer.

Here are a couple more sell-high opportunities:

Lance Berkman: Berkman may have appeared to have a relative down year last year, but if you look at the numbers it was really only a slow first half that hindered him. Now, he’s back stronger than ever. So strong, there’s no way he can maintain his pace. He’s a big enough name to bring in a huge bounty so trade him while he’s hot.

Chipper Jones: Kevin Orris might have a heart attack when he reads this, but yes, I am still proposing you trade Jones right now. Jones is bound to get injured at some point and he can’t maintain his ridiculous batting average even if he stays healthy.

Dan Uggla: We all knew Uggla had a lot of power for a second baseman, but this is getting ridiculous. Uggla will be solid for the rest of the season, but he can’t maintain his current pace or batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: Where did he come from? Before this season many fantasy players had never heard of him, let alone considered drafting him. He’s now ranked #8 in Yahoo!’s player rankings. That just reeks of sell high material.

Honorable Mention: Nate McClouth, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Church, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez.