Before I get started on this week’s article, just wanted to pass along the news that the Reds have promoted prospect Homer Bailey to start on Thursday. Bailey has amazing talent, but has been unable to put it together just yet. If you have dead weight on your staff or an injury, grab Bailey now. But I wouldn’t drop anyone who is giving you decent production.

Every season many drafters do not focus on starting pitching for 7-10 rounds. These people always have the same mantra, “You can always find starting pitching.” I don’t whole heartedly agree, but if you are quick on the waiver wire, and pay close attention you can put together a good staff after your draft. Most likely Edinson Volquez, Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Ervin Santana, and Micah Owings were available after your draft was over. The question you have to ask yourself is this: ‘Are these just hot starts, or do these guys have staying power?” Here are a list of some hot starters, and if I think they will continue their success, or if you will be playing the wire again before too long.

Todd Wellemeyer, STL. A career reliever before joining the Cardinals, Wellemeyer was pressed into starting duty due to the injuries to Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder in 2007. His best ERA as a reliever was in 2006, when he was at 4.14 during 78.1 innings. So how is he 6-1 with a 3.16 ERA as a starter? I have no idea. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has pulled some miracles in the past (Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, etc), but this might be his best job. A guy whose career high in innings pitched in a season is 79.1 does not last the whole season as a starter. If you have Wellemeyer, do whatever you can to get some sort of value for him in a trade, this can’t last.

Justin Duchscherer, OAK. Another career reliever who is pitching out of his mind, Duch can’t possibly keep this pace up over the length of the season. His record isn’t mind boggling at 4-4, but his ERA is a sparkling 2.27. Expect the wins to start to fade out in about a month, and the ERA to start a steady climb over 4.00. Try to move the Duch if you can.

Ryan Dempster, CHC. He started his career as a starter, and has thrown over 200 innings in his career, so I don’t expect him to fizzle out like the others. However, when he did start games, he was very ineffective as he only once had an ERA under 4.00. He’s always had a pretty good strikeout ratio, and the Cubs score a bunch of runs, but Dempster will have an ERA around 4.25 by the end of the year, a far cry from the 2.75 it sits at right now.

Darrell Rasner, NYY. Rasner is a 27-year old pitcher who has had stints in the major leagues in each of the last four seasons. Not only do guys in their late 20s generally not turn the corner to this kind of success, but if Rasner was this good, why has he bounced between the minors and majors so much since 2005? His sub-3.00 ERA will be on a steady climb in the near future, be ready for it.

Micah Owings, ARI. Owings was getting a better reputation with a bat in his hands then the pitches he threw to the guys holding a bat. But Owings is looking better in 2008, and his six wins are just two less than he had all of last year. He still gives up too many homers, but I expect Owings to get that ERA down to around the 3.50 area, and his strikeouts to close to one an inning.

Aaron Laffey, CLE. One of the better pitching prospects in the Indians system, Laffey is making the most of his opportunity in 2008. His record is just 3-3, but his ERA is at a staggering 1.59. He isn’t a fireballer, so he won’t dominate in strikeouts but in 2007 between AA and AAA Laffey was 13-4 with about a 2.65 ERA. Laffey definitely has the talent to continue this production and could win 13 games for the Tribe this year, especially with Jake Westbrook going back to the DL.

Jason Bergmann, WAS. Bergmann just lost his 19.2 inning scoreless streak snapped as he lost a game after going the distance. Bergmann has been a great surprise after being sent down to the minors after his first few starts. Bergmann is also striking out more than one batter an inning. Looking at the rest of his major league career, as well as his minor league numbers, I just don’t see any reason that this success will continue. Sell high on Bergmann if you can.

Joe Saunders, LAA. Saunders has been average at best through his first few years in the majors in spot duty. He has flipped the switch in 2008, and is an impressive 8-2 with a sub-3.00 ERA. Saunders doesn’t blow hitters away, in fact he has 34 Ks and 20 BBs. He still could win 14 games, but I expect a slide back to his usual career numbers for Saunders. Sell high, he still could have some value with his win-loss record.

Chad Billingsley, LAD. After having a good year in 2007 with 12 wins, Billingsley got off to a tough start in 2008, and has been overlooked by many owners. His last four starts have been much more impressive, and is looking like he is going to realize the potential he entered the league with. Billingsley strikes out a lot of hitters, with about 50 more Ks than innings pitched. If he happens to be available, get him right away.

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