Get Leverage on the Situation
Every fantasy player has certainly heard this advice before, "Do not draft a closer early in your draft." Why? Simply put, closers are constantly under the microscope since they enter games in high leverage situations, which results in less tolerance from both fans and managers for poor performance. As a result, the percentage of closers that keep their jobs for a full season is only about 60%. Therefore, if you do not pick closers in your draft, there is on average 12 newly-crowned closers waiting to be added from free agency throughout the season. However sometimes when a closer loses his job, it is difficult to do determine who is heir to the throne, usually because the manager prefers it that way. The manager says he is going to try a closer-by-committee or simply says he has not made a decision yet. Because some managers have commitment issues, fantasy players must attempt to read managers' minds to determine who the next closer will be. Tarot cards, crystal balls, and some combination of a black light, invisible ink, and pixie dust have been used to varying degrees of success in the past, but the method I will disclose to you today is more simple and reliable.
Earlier I mentioned that closers tend to enter games in high leverage situations. We all know bases loaded, tie game, two out, bottom of the ninth, full count is a high leverage situation and a 12-3 blowout provides for some low leverage situations, but what if the amount of leverage for every possible situation in a baseball game was quantifiable? Lucky for us, the leverage of every possible situation has been quantified and put into this handy chart courtesy of Tom Tango. Assuming managers put in relievers they trust more in higher leverage situations, we could quantify how much trust a manager has in a reliever based on the average leverage index at the point a reliever enters a ballgame. Even luckier for us, the average leverage index when a reliever enters a game is calculated at FanGraphs and displayed as gm/LI on their player pages.
One quick note - I was first introduced to the usefulness of gm/LI by Derek Carty in this article, which appeared on the Hardball Times in February 2008. Since then, I have found no mention or use of this statistic on the Internet, maybe I need to look harder.
Let's take a look at some current shaky closer situations and use gm/LI to determine who the is the favorite to inherit the closing gig.
Seattle Mariners - While it's a safe bet to assume Brandon Morrow is the interim closer while J.J. Putz heads for the DL, considering Morrow got the save last night, lets take this opportunity to see if gm/LI would have worked in this case.
gm/LI - Player
1.77 - Putz
1.45 - Morrow
1.18 - Green
1.15 - Lowe
1.08 - Rowland-Smith
.69 - Dickey
Morrow clearly had the highest gm/LI after Putz and as expected, the closer's job became his.
Oakland Athletics - Closer Huston Street is not on this list because of bad play, rather because of the high probability he gets traded by the deadline. If that were to happen, let's find out who would replace him.
1.55 - Street
1.46 - Embree
1.43 - Casilla
1.41 - Devine
Wow, this race is incredibly close, all three within .05 of each other. Embree might get the job because of experience, Casilla was lights out before he got hurt, and Devine is praised as a definite future closer. All three have strong cases to support them. It depends if the A's want to give the young guys closing experience, or let the veteran Embree finish out the season.
Chicago Cubs - the Cubs closer has no risk of getting traded and is pitching phenomenally right now. He makes the list solely because his name is Kerry Wood and that means a one-way ticket to the DL has already been paid for him. When Wood stops teasing everyone with his health, let's find out who will take his place.
1.67 - Wood
1.35 - Marmol
1.30 - Howry
1.13 - Wuertz
In terms of gm/LI it is a close race between Marmol and Howry. However considering that Marmol's ERA is 2.20 and Howry's is 4.96, Marmol is clearly the guy who would get the promotion.
Cleveland Indians - Closer Joe Borowski's ERA is currently at 9.00, down from 10.23 on June 1st. Is it possible he is still the Indian's closer? If an ERA of 9 means he gives up a run an inning, how can the Indians keep putting Borowski out there and expect him to save a one-run game? Perhaps manager Eric Wedge is beginning to trust someone else more, I hope.
1.74 - Borowski
1.42 - Perez
1.29 - Betancourt
1.09 - Kobayashi
Based on gm/LI, Perez is next in line over Betancourt to become the closer. Based on ERA, Perez is more-deserving as well. Despite Kobayashi having the best ERA of the group, we know he is not going to become the closer because Wedge does not yet trust him in crucial situations.
All in all, gm/LI is a simple statistic that has found purpose when it comes to determining managerial trust. I am overall surprised at the lack of attention it has received since Fangraphs started posting the numbers and Derek Carty's article. Don't be afraid to use gm/LI just because it is different from other stats you use.
Earlier I mentioned that closers tend to enter games in high leverage situations. We all know bases loaded, tie game, two out, bottom of the ninth, full count is a high leverage situation and a 12-3 blowout provides for some low leverage situations, but what if the amount of leverage for every possible situation in a baseball game was quantifiable? Lucky for us, the leverage of every possible situation has been quantified and put into this handy chart courtesy of Tom Tango. Assuming managers put in relievers they trust more in higher leverage situations, we could quantify how much trust a manager has in a reliever based on the average leverage index at the point a reliever enters a ballgame. Even luckier for us, the average leverage index when a reliever enters a game is calculated at FanGraphs and displayed as gm/LI on their player pages.
One quick note - I was first introduced to the usefulness of gm/LI by Derek Carty in this article, which appeared on the Hardball Times in February 2008. Since then, I have found no mention or use of this statistic on the Internet, maybe I need to look harder.
Let's take a look at some current shaky closer situations and use gm/LI to determine who the is the favorite to inherit the closing gig.
Seattle Mariners - While it's a safe bet to assume Brandon Morrow is the interim closer while J.J. Putz heads for the DL, considering Morrow got the save last night, lets take this opportunity to see if gm/LI would have worked in this case.
gm/LI - Player
1.77 - Putz
1.45 - Morrow
1.18 - Green
1.15 - Lowe
1.08 - Rowland-Smith
.69 - Dickey
Morrow clearly had the highest gm/LI after Putz and as expected, the closer's job became his.
Oakland Athletics - Closer Huston Street is not on this list because of bad play, rather because of the high probability he gets traded by the deadline. If that were to happen, let's find out who would replace him.
1.55 - Street
1.46 - Embree
1.43 - Casilla
1.41 - Devine
Wow, this race is incredibly close, all three within .05 of each other. Embree might get the job because of experience, Casilla was lights out before he got hurt, and Devine is praised as a definite future closer. All three have strong cases to support them. It depends if the A's want to give the young guys closing experience, or let the veteran Embree finish out the season.
Chicago Cubs - the Cubs closer has no risk of getting traded and is pitching phenomenally right now. He makes the list solely because his name is Kerry Wood and that means a one-way ticket to the DL has already been paid for him. When Wood stops teasing everyone with his health, let's find out who will take his place.
1.67 - Wood
1.35 - Marmol
1.30 - Howry
1.13 - Wuertz
In terms of gm/LI it is a close race between Marmol and Howry. However considering that Marmol's ERA is 2.20 and Howry's is 4.96, Marmol is clearly the guy who would get the promotion.
Cleveland Indians - Closer Joe Borowski's ERA is currently at 9.00, down from 10.23 on June 1st. Is it possible he is still the Indian's closer? If an ERA of 9 means he gives up a run an inning, how can the Indians keep putting Borowski out there and expect him to save a one-run game? Perhaps manager Eric Wedge is beginning to trust someone else more, I hope.
1.74 - Borowski
1.42 - Perez
1.29 - Betancourt
1.09 - Kobayashi
Based on gm/LI, Perez is next in line over Betancourt to become the closer. Based on ERA, Perez is more-deserving as well. Despite Kobayashi having the best ERA of the group, we know he is not going to become the closer because Wedge does not yet trust him in crucial situations.
All in all, gm/LI is a simple statistic that has found purpose when it comes to determining managerial trust. I am overall surprised at the lack of attention it has received since Fangraphs started posting the numbers and Derek Carty's article. Don't be afraid to use gm/LI just because it is different from other stats you use.
