It’s time for the first installment of "The Real Deal". Each and every week, I will perform a category by category review of five players who have drastically exceeded expectations this season in the hopes of determining if their success is legitimate or a fluke. The five players for this week are Milton Bradley, Ryan Ludwick, Bengie Molina, Shaun Marcum and Ervin Santana.

Milton Bradley
HR: With 14 HR on the season, Bradley is on pace to hit around 35 this season. When he signed with the Rangers, he did move to a much more hitter friendly park – and it’s showing so far this season. 12 of his 14 HRs have come at home. He has a .837 slugging percentage at home, compared to a .439 mark on the road. I don’t think 35 HRs should be expected, but Bradley will easily crush his previous career high of 19.
R: The Rangers are the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 5.57 runs per game. Currently sporting a .455 OBP, Bradley is certainly giving the Rangers hitters plentiful opportunities to drive him in. His 17.8% walk rate is possibly a result of pitchers seeing David Murphy in the on-deck circle, preferring to pitch around Bradley. The Rangers’ offense seems like a pretty safe bet to score runs in these days.
RBI: Hitting behind Michael Young [.352 OBP] and Josh Hamilton [.362 OBP] is a pretty nice place to be this season. Batting in the cleanup spot in the highest scoring offense in baseball, Bradley’s RBI production is legitimate.
SB: Back in 2003 with Cleveland, Bradley stole 17 bases in 101 games. He’s not running as much this season, with 4 steals in 6 attempts. I wouldn’t expect him to return to his ’03 form, but it’s certainly possible that Bradley cracks double digits in steals this year.
AVG: If there is one red flag on Bradley, it’s his batting averaging. He’s currently winning the AL batting title with a .330 average on the season [.388 at home, .281 on the road]. His BABIP is an unsustainable .381, and his contact rate [75%] is not one that traditional .300 hitters sport. Bradley won’t win the batting title this season, and regression should be expected in this category.
Conclusion: With only one real obvious fluke in his fantasy repertoire, Bradley is certainly going to exceed his wildest projections when the season is over. Such drastic home/road splits suggest it might make sense to start him only when he’s in Arlington, though.

Ryan Ludwick
HR: Ludwick has always shown good power, sporting a .501 slugging percentage in his minor league career. With 16 HRs on the season thus far, Ludwick is almost on pace for a 40 HR season. He’s almost the opposite of Milton Bradley; only 4 of his HRs have come at home this year. I don’t think he’ll continue to sport a .654 slugging percentage, but he’s certainly a decent source for power.
R: Normally batting cleanup in the Cards’ lineup in front of Troy Glaus, Ludwick has scored a respectable 44 runs this season. I don’t expect him to put up Berkmanian levels of runs scored [63], but he shouldn’t be a complete liability here.
RBI: Batting behind Albert Pujols is a good place to be. Ludwick has benefitted from Pujols’ .475 OBP, which has generated plenty of RBI opportunities. He’s cashed in on most of those, ranking 5th in the NL with 53 RBI. With Pujols down for three to four weeks with a strained calf, I don’t think Ludwick will get the same level of opportunities.
SB: With 4 steals on the season, Ludwick has already tied his career high. Look for something around 7 or 8 when the season is over; not a game-changer, but certainly not a complete liability.
AVG: Ludwick’s .313 average on the season is tied for 6th in the National League with Aaron Rowand and Chase Utley. His 75% contact rate and .343 BABIP suggest he’s not going to maintain a .300 average all season, so expect regression in this category.
Conclusion: If I were a Ludwick owner, I’d be shopping him immediately. His high batting average is a fluke, and as a team cannot magically replace a 1.105 OPS, Pujols’ injury will have far-reaching affects on the Cards’ lineup.

Bengie Molina
HR: With 6 HR on the season, Molina is looking like he’ll end up around 19 HRs he had the past two seasons. He certainly likes hitting away from AT&T Park, logging a .555 away slugging percentage, compared to a .368 mark at home.
R: The Giants are the 3rd worst team in the NL for scoring runs, only behind the lowly Padres and Nationals. With only 24 runs scored this season, Molina’s success in the fantasy world hasn’t been overly dependent on this category. Don’t expect a sudden influx of run scoring in this offense.
RBI: What little offense the Giants have had, Molina has been driving them in. A catcher who hits cleanup is certainly going to produce decent RBI totals, especially for a position that doesn’t typically see good RBI production.
SB: With only 10 attempts in his 1026 career games, Molina won’t be confused with Juan Pierre anytime soon.
AVG: Currently hitting .311 on the season, Molina is one point behind Russell Martin for the title of the best hitting NL catcher. The BABIP is at a respectable .308, so that’s not a gigantic red flag. The 93.33% contact rate is certainly a good sign, but the 3.73% walk rate isn’t in keeping with true .300 hitters. I’d expect regression towards the .290-.295 range, but he’s certainly going to be an asset in this category.
Conclusion: There isn’t too much fluke here. Molina should continue to be a top fantasy catcher this season, largely as a result of him batting cleanup.

Shaun Marcum
W: With the 3rd worst run scoring offense backing him up, Marcum has only received 5 wins so far. He isn’t failing to get the wins as a result of his pitching, as he’s had 7 outings in which he gave up 2 ER or fewer and failed to get the W. Regardless, the lack of an offense in Toronto does hold down Marcum’s value.
K: Currently sporting a 7.81 K/9, Marcum is certainly holding his own in this category. He struck out exactly a batter an inning in his minor league career, so it’s not like the strikeouts are coming out of thin air. With an excellent arsenal of pitches to select from, Marcum’s K rate is legit.
ERA: His 2.53 ERA is leading the American League so far. His peripherals are strong, but suggest his ERA should be closer to a 3.69 mark. It’s not like he’s expected to fall off a cliff here; look for him to continue to be a great source in this category.
WHIP: Marcum’s control has been great this season, sporting a 3.08 K/BB ratio. He had a 2.77 BB/9 rate last season, so this year’s 2.52 BB/9 isn’t an overnight sensation. The one red flag on Marcum is his .227 BABIP. The Blue Jays have a .291 team mark in this category, so expect a few more hits to drop in on Marcum as the season unfolds.
Conclusion: This looks like a breakout season for Marcum. It’d be nice if his team would score more runs, but fantasy owners will just have to take what they get.

Ervin Santana
W: Despite a lackluster Angels offense that ranks 4th in the AL in runs scored, the lesser known Santana has won 8 games. His W’s have definitely been of his doing, as all of his wins have occurred when he allowed 3 ER or less.
K: Sporting a 7.76 K/9, Santana has brought decent value in this category. This mark is roughly on par with what he did last season, so it doesn’t seem to be a fluke. He also struck out more than a batter an inning in the minors, so he’s definitely a good source for Ks.
ERA: The ERA went up from 3.01 to 3.40 after Santana was roughed up by the Braves on Saturday evening. Regardless, his peripherals suggest a 3.72 mark is appropriate, not too far removed from his actual figure.
WHIP: Santana has found much stronger control this season, logging a 1.99 BB/9 in 2008 compared to a 3.48 BB/9 in 2007. Even in his bad outing against the Braves, he only walked two batters, so it looks like he may have turned a corner here. As far as the hits, his .275 BABIP is not too far removed from his team’s .295 mark, so it’s tough to call his .230 BAA a fluke.
Conclusion: Santana looks like another breakout pitcher for 2008. He’s also sliced his HR/9 from 1.56 in 2007 to 0.85 this season, another reason for his success.