The Real Deal?
Each and every week, I will perform a category by category review of five players who have drastically exceeded expectations this season in the hopes of determining if their success is legitimate or a fluke.
The five players for this week are Adrian Gonzalez, J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Duchscherer and Tim Hudson.
Adrian Gonzalez
HR: On pace to hit 44 HRs, Gonzo is exceeding his expectations coming into the season. The former #1 pick in the 2000 draft is in his age 26 season, prime time for sluggers. He hasn't shown .550+ power in his career, but he's a bonafide .500 slugger. The increased HR power just looks like natural growth for Gonzo.
R: The Padres are the 2nd worst run scorers in the National League. Almost half of Gonzo's runs are a result of him hitting a HR and driving himself in. I wouldn't expect elite run scoring totals, but he's not looking like he'll be a complete liability in this category.
RBI: Although the Padres are 3rd worst at getting on base as a team, at least Gonzalez has Brian Giles and his .401 OBP hitting in front of him. Jody Gerut has been hitting towards the top part of the order lately, and his .369 OBP isn't too shabby. If there's anyone in the Padres' offense that is going to drive in the runs, it's Gonzo.
SB: Gonzalez is 0 for 1 in his career, so don't expect anything to change here.
AVG: Currently hitting .294, Gonzo has been solid but not spectacular in this category. The BABIP is a bit high at .312, but it's not too obscene. The contact rate [78.55%] and walk rate [9.15%] are not those of a .300 hitter. Don't expect a return to the .304 average of 2006, but Gonzalez is no Adam Dunn.
Conclusion: Gonzalez is looking like a steal this season. He's dead weight with SBs, but good-to-elite everywhere else. It looks like the best is yet to come for Gonzo in his career.
J.D. Drew
HR: A career .505 slugger, Drew is hot in 2008 with a .591 slugging percentage. Most of this is from his obscene June, where he's had a .972 slugging percentage with 10 HRs. He flashed 30+ HR power in 2004, but hasn't found the power stroke much since then. I doubt we're looking at a 30 HR season from Drew this year, but enjoy the mashing while you can.
R: The Red Sox lineup is a good place to be, scoring the 2nd most runs in the AL. With Big Papi out of the lineup, Drew has been hitting 3rd. It'll be interesting to see where he gets moved when Ortiz is back in the lineup, but Drew should continue to be a solid source of runs.
RBI: Drew has been picking up Ortiz's slack, with 22 of his 44 RBI coming in the month of June. Don't expect that pace to continue if he gets dropped further in the lineup.
SB: Drew is far removed from his days of flirting with 20 steals. With only 2 steals on the season, I'd only expect a few more.
AVG: The BABIP is extremely high at .352, indicating he's getting lucky with the hits. Although the walk rate [15.47%] is solid, his contact rate [77.73%] isn't a great sign. A career .286 hitter, I'd expect his current .318 AVG to head south.
Conclusion: Enjoy the hot streak while you can. Drew is going to exceed expectations this season, but don't expect a .300 AVG with 30 HR and 10 SB.
Kevin Youkilis
HR: Youk looks like he's on pace for 27 HRs this season, easily exceeding his career high of 16. He's rarely flashed .500 power before, only in a brief stint with AAA Pawtucket. He'll probably reach the 20s this season, but don't expect elite power from Youk.
R: Although he's been in different parts of the lineup, Youk has been hitting 6th lately. He's scoring a respectable amount of runs thus far, and it doesn't look like the Boston offense is slowing down anytime soon.
RBI: He won't drive in 120+, but Youk is looking like he might flirt with triple digits this year. A lot of his future RBI potential depends on the lineup shuffling that will occur when Big Papi returns.
SB: The fact that he's swiped 3 bases so far is pretty impressive. He won't reach double digits, but 5-6 on the year seems practical.
AVG: Youk is currently hitting .305, well above his career .284 average. The .335 BABIP is a bit high. Despite being nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, his walk rate [9.09%] and contact rate [80.15%] aren't those of a .300 hitter. Expect regression in this category.
Conclusion: He should maintain his value with the team dependent stats, but all in all, Youk is in way over his head at his current level of production.
Justin Duchscherer
W: The Duke has 8 wins thus far in his 12 games started. Baseball Prospectus' expected wins statistic suggests that he should have 5.9 Ws thus far. The A's are exactly average with 4.56 runs scored per game. I wouldn't expect the Duke's winning pace to keep up.
K: Pitching mostly out of the bullpen, the Duke has a career 7.08 K/9 in the bigs. Coming in with a 5.96 K/9 this season, he's not exactly an asset in Ks thus far. I'd expect him to get the Ks up a touch higher towards the 7 mark.
ERA: Now qualifying for the ERA title, he has a 1.99 ERA in 77 IP. His peripherals suggest a 4.23 ERA, largely due to the lack of strikeouts and groundballs. Expect regression here.
WHIP: The .242 BABIP is 41 points lower than the A's team .283 team mark, so expect some hits to start falling. The 2.10 BB/9 isn't too far removed from his career 2.31 BB/9, so his control looks legit.
Conclusion: There's not too many reasons to be optimistic about Duchscherer continuing his ways of success.
Tim Hudson
W: With 8 Ws thus far, Hudson has marginally outpitched his expected wins by less than one. The Braves are slightly above average in runs scored, so it's not like he has the Nats' bats backing him up.
K: His 5.27 K/9 is right around his 5.30 K/9 from last season. He hasn't been a dominant strikeout pitcher in a while, so don't expect him to notch it up in the second half.
ERA: Currently logging a 2.96 ERA, Hudson has outpitched his peripherals by 1.3 ER/9. The strikeout totals are the main culprit, as his 60.1 GB% is superb.
WHIP: Hudson's .274 BABIP is only .012 removed from his team's average, so that's not too obscene. His 2.47 BB/9 is a touch higher than last year's 2.13 mark, but it's not too shabby. It looks like he's on pace to have another 1.20'ish WHIP season.
Conclusion: Other than outpitching his ERA, Hudson looks to be a fairly finished product at this point in his career. You could do far worse than Hudson in a fantasy rotation.
The five players for this week are Adrian Gonzalez, J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Duchscherer and Tim Hudson.
Adrian Gonzalez
HR: On pace to hit 44 HRs, Gonzo is exceeding his expectations coming into the season. The former #1 pick in the 2000 draft is in his age 26 season, prime time for sluggers. He hasn't shown .550+ power in his career, but he's a bonafide .500 slugger. The increased HR power just looks like natural growth for Gonzo.
R: The Padres are the 2nd worst run scorers in the National League. Almost half of Gonzo's runs are a result of him hitting a HR and driving himself in. I wouldn't expect elite run scoring totals, but he's not looking like he'll be a complete liability in this category.
RBI: Although the Padres are 3rd worst at getting on base as a team, at least Gonzalez has Brian Giles and his .401 OBP hitting in front of him. Jody Gerut has been hitting towards the top part of the order lately, and his .369 OBP isn't too shabby. If there's anyone in the Padres' offense that is going to drive in the runs, it's Gonzo.
SB: Gonzalez is 0 for 1 in his career, so don't expect anything to change here.
AVG: Currently hitting .294, Gonzo has been solid but not spectacular in this category. The BABIP is a bit high at .312, but it's not too obscene. The contact rate [78.55%] and walk rate [9.15%] are not those of a .300 hitter. Don't expect a return to the .304 average of 2006, but Gonzalez is no Adam Dunn.
Conclusion: Gonzalez is looking like a steal this season. He's dead weight with SBs, but good-to-elite everywhere else. It looks like the best is yet to come for Gonzo in his career.
J.D. Drew
HR: A career .505 slugger, Drew is hot in 2008 with a .591 slugging percentage. Most of this is from his obscene June, where he's had a .972 slugging percentage with 10 HRs. He flashed 30+ HR power in 2004, but hasn't found the power stroke much since then. I doubt we're looking at a 30 HR season from Drew this year, but enjoy the mashing while you can.
R: The Red Sox lineup is a good place to be, scoring the 2nd most runs in the AL. With Big Papi out of the lineup, Drew has been hitting 3rd. It'll be interesting to see where he gets moved when Ortiz is back in the lineup, but Drew should continue to be a solid source of runs.
RBI: Drew has been picking up Ortiz's slack, with 22 of his 44 RBI coming in the month of June. Don't expect that pace to continue if he gets dropped further in the lineup.
SB: Drew is far removed from his days of flirting with 20 steals. With only 2 steals on the season, I'd only expect a few more.
AVG: The BABIP is extremely high at .352, indicating he's getting lucky with the hits. Although the walk rate [15.47%] is solid, his contact rate [77.73%] isn't a great sign. A career .286 hitter, I'd expect his current .318 AVG to head south.
Conclusion: Enjoy the hot streak while you can. Drew is going to exceed expectations this season, but don't expect a .300 AVG with 30 HR and 10 SB.
Kevin Youkilis
HR: Youk looks like he's on pace for 27 HRs this season, easily exceeding his career high of 16. He's rarely flashed .500 power before, only in a brief stint with AAA Pawtucket. He'll probably reach the 20s this season, but don't expect elite power from Youk.
R: Although he's been in different parts of the lineup, Youk has been hitting 6th lately. He's scoring a respectable amount of runs thus far, and it doesn't look like the Boston offense is slowing down anytime soon.
RBI: He won't drive in 120+, but Youk is looking like he might flirt with triple digits this year. A lot of his future RBI potential depends on the lineup shuffling that will occur when Big Papi returns.
SB: The fact that he's swiped 3 bases so far is pretty impressive. He won't reach double digits, but 5-6 on the year seems practical.
AVG: Youk is currently hitting .305, well above his career .284 average. The .335 BABIP is a bit high. Despite being nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, his walk rate [9.09%] and contact rate [80.15%] aren't those of a .300 hitter. Expect regression in this category.
Conclusion: He should maintain his value with the team dependent stats, but all in all, Youk is in way over his head at his current level of production.
Justin Duchscherer
W: The Duke has 8 wins thus far in his 12 games started. Baseball Prospectus' expected wins statistic suggests that he should have 5.9 Ws thus far. The A's are exactly average with 4.56 runs scored per game. I wouldn't expect the Duke's winning pace to keep up.
K: Pitching mostly out of the bullpen, the Duke has a career 7.08 K/9 in the bigs. Coming in with a 5.96 K/9 this season, he's not exactly an asset in Ks thus far. I'd expect him to get the Ks up a touch higher towards the 7 mark.
ERA: Now qualifying for the ERA title, he has a 1.99 ERA in 77 IP. His peripherals suggest a 4.23 ERA, largely due to the lack of strikeouts and groundballs. Expect regression here.
WHIP: The .242 BABIP is 41 points lower than the A's team .283 team mark, so expect some hits to start falling. The 2.10 BB/9 isn't too far removed from his career 2.31 BB/9, so his control looks legit.
Conclusion: There's not too many reasons to be optimistic about Duchscherer continuing his ways of success.
Tim Hudson
W: With 8 Ws thus far, Hudson has marginally outpitched his expected wins by less than one. The Braves are slightly above average in runs scored, so it's not like he has the Nats' bats backing him up.
K: His 5.27 K/9 is right around his 5.30 K/9 from last season. He hasn't been a dominant strikeout pitcher in a while, so don't expect him to notch it up in the second half.
ERA: Currently logging a 2.96 ERA, Hudson has outpitched his peripherals by 1.3 ER/9. The strikeout totals are the main culprit, as his 60.1 GB% is superb.
WHIP: Hudson's .274 BABIP is only .012 removed from his team's average, so that's not too obscene. His 2.47 BB/9 is a touch higher than last year's 2.13 mark, but it's not too shabby. It looks like he's on pace to have another 1.20'ish WHIP season.
Conclusion: Other than outpitching his ERA, Hudson looks to be a fairly finished product at this point in his career. You could do far worse than Hudson in a fantasy rotation.
