Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

First, I'd like to ask all readers to comment on the usefulness of these posts. I could continue them, or instead come up with something else, but the scarce resource is time so its a bit of a balancing act. I have not found a comparable tool on other blogs, so figured it fit a nice niche, but was curious if you agreed. Let me know, and in the meantime, I'll look at some matchups...

Friday: Jeff Suppan isn't my favorite pitcher, but he faces off against a Teixeira-less and Chipper-less Braves who should struggle offensively from here on out. Nick Blackburn's last start against the Indians? Well, it was actually his most recent start, where he went seven innings of one-run ball. Homer Bailey is a pretty big risk, as the "homer" in "homer friendly Great American Ballpark" certainly doesn't express any fondness for the righty. Still, facing the Nationals away from the park is a rare opportunity for a quality start. Tim Wakefield faces Justin Duchscherer, who recently showed that he is mortal, giving the Red Sox a good chance for a win and Wakefield a young lineup to feast on. Clayton Kershaw and Garrett Olsen also have good matchups, facing Arizona at home and Seattle on the road.

Saturday: Ricky Nolasco knows how to pitch against Colorado (career .93 ERA), and gets to face them at home backed by a streaking offense. Jeremy Guthrie should have some luck against Seattle, but basically doesn't need it. Kevin Slowey, coming off the complete game shutout, hasn't exactly impressed against Cleveland so far this season.

Sunday: As you probably guessed, Sunday is slow based on the plethora of early weekend options. Daniel Cabrera, like his teammates, should do decently at Safeco. I'd rather start Greg Maddux though, facing SF at home.

The Day in Review

Pick up Brandon Inge! Well, he did hit a homer today in his first of many games at catcher, and for those of you waiting on Clement or hoping for Towles, Inge is probably the better bet. Also, it looks like Bay may be headed to Boston, while Manny heads to Florida and no one of much importance heads to Pittsburgh. Not sure if that is a sure bet or a rumor, but it makes a lot of sense.

Injury News:

• The news wasn't good for Tim Hudson, and he'll most likely opt for Tommy John Surgery. Doesn't mean his career is over, but I expect the best days are behind him.

Notable Performances:

• Beckett got rocked by the Angels, who are just routing the Red Sox at Fenway. I had my doubts with the ace, and while he's not this bad, his fantasy reputation is a little inflated by Octobers.
• Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu each had two homeruns. Kelly Shoppach put up the statline of the night, earlier sitting at 5-5 with three doubles and two homeruns.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Trendspotting: Teixeira, Kotchman

I'm sure I don't have to tell you the big news of yesterday - Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman have both found new homes. So what can you expect the rest of the way, and long-term, from these two?

Mark Teixeira: What does the return to the AL West mean for the slugging first baseman? It's hard to say. One important point for keeper league players - this deal did not include an extension, so there are no guarantees he'll be an Angel beyond 2008. Going through his career stats, here's what I found. Teixeira had his career year in the AL West in 2005 (43 HR, 144 RBI, .301 avg), but wasn't elite in the years immediately before or after. He actually has a Lance Berkman-esque split so far, in which he plays better in odd-numbered years than even-numbered ones. As ESPN's Matthew Berry mentions, though, his pre- and post-Break splits show that he is a much better second-half player. He has the same number of home runs in 100 fewer games, his average is 20 points higher and his OPS is 70 points higher after the midpoint. And he really went on a tear with Atlanta after being traded there last year. In short, I have no reason to think he won't be very good in Los Angeles the rest of this season.

Casey Kotchman: Kotchman, in his brief career, has so far shown to be a second-half player. His average jumps 40 points and his OPS jumps nearly 200 points! In Atlanta, he will get regular playing time and should be a first base mainstay for a number of years. MLB.com points out that Kotchman has hit better at Angels Stadium than on the road, but I envision Atlanta batting him third and Chipper Jones (once healthy) and Brian McCann right behind him. He should see some pitches and continue to be a high-average, medium power player. Fantasy-wise, his lack of power at a crucial position makes him less useful than many options, but his power should continue to develop as he plays without battling mono or concussions as he has the past two years.

The Day in Review

Mark Teixeira? Finally an Angel. My fantasy spin is that those owners hoping he would move to Arizona, a bandbox in recent years, should be a bit disappointed. Those Vladimir Guerrero owners finally get to see what its like for the slugger to have some legitimate hitters protecting him in the lineup. I am actually a bit concerned for Tex, as his slow start trend each year could repeat itself as he confronts a new league and a new team. But I'm not worried enough to advise selling now, unless someone in your league thinks the move will help them save the world.

Injury News:

• Milton Bradley, he of the oft-injured reputation, strained his quad and might hit the DL alongside Hank Blalock. 
• To my extreme disappointment, Adam LaRoche hit the DL with a strained rib muscle. It might give Steven Pearce some time to try out a different position.

Notable Performances:

• In his first start back, Chris Young threw five scoreless innings, striking out eight. I guess he's going to be good headed forward. Doug Davis is in the middle of a no-no on the other side of that boxscore.
• Aubrey Huff and Alex Rodriguez each had their 22nd homer of the season tonight. Don't worry though, Huff still has more ribbies on the season.
• Soriano stole his second base in as many days. Yesterday it was a stolen third, which suggests his legs have finally returned. He's also working counts a lot better, for those who bleed blue (and aren't horseshoe crabs).
• J.J. Putz blew a save opportunity, and has been pretty bad since returning. If I owned him, I'd probably just let me ride the pine until he's a safer bet. I know its tough after waiting several months already.
• Yes it was against the Nationals, but Brett Myers threw seven innings without giving up an earned run, earning the win instead.
• And of course, John Lackey came two outs shy of pitching a no-hitter at Fenway. As a Cubs fan, I am sworn against Red Sox nation and am thoroughly disappointed.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Mythbusters: Pitchers Changing Leagues

There are plenty of names I could've chosen for this case study, but I tried to stick to fantasy-worthy and mix in some studs and some marginal pitchers. My goal is to analyze the movement of pitchers between leagues and see if I can quantify some type of trends. Here's what I found:

Randy Johnson: The Big Unit actually began his career in Montreal, but the stint was too brief to offer any insight into his pitching. He was very good in Seattle, consistently striking out 200+ per year and breaking 300 K's once (in 1993). After moving to the NL - first Houston, then Arizona, he saw his strikeout totals increase dramatically. He had five straight seasons well over 300 strikeouts, beginning at age 34 and ending at 38. The strikeouts cannot be explained by ballpark factor, and it's unlikely he was gaining any velocity in his mid-30s, suggesting Johnson definitely benefited from facing NL lineups on a yearly basis. He struggled in his return to the AL as a Yankee, and pitched better in limited action after returning to the Diamondbacks (significant K/9 increase, and lower ERA despite higher BABIP). Johnson is one who benefited hugely from moving to the NL from the AL.

Pedro Martinez: Pedro began in Montreal, moved to Boston, and eventually returned to New York. He was a fine pitcher until his last season in Montreal (1997), at which point he became dominant. Still, his WHIP and ERA dropped when he reached Boston (his WHIP was under 1.00 in 4 of 7 seasons with Boston), and strikeouts increased, though less dramatically than Johnson. He faded quickly as a member of the Mets, and has been fighting just to stay on the field. Pedro is just the opposite of the Big Unit - he was a significantly better pitcher during his time in the American League.

Roger Clemens: His name certainly belongs in baseball lore. Clemens had a renaissance late in his career that few, if any, have ever equaled. The fact that it coincided with moving from New York (AL) to Houston (NL) may have helped, but there is reason to believe chemistry had as much to do with his statistical improvements as changing leagues. Still, he posted a huge drop in both WHIP and ERA after moving to the NL at age 42.

Andy Pettitte: Clemens' friend, who followed him to Houston, had some success in moving from AL to NL. He had the best year of his career with Houston in 2005, posting career lows in WHIP, ERA, and BAA. He also didn't walk many batters at all. He followed that year with a miserable one, and has improved from his pathetic '06 since returning to the AL (decreasing ERA & WHIP, increasing K/9). So although Pettitte did have his career year in the NL, he had bad seasons in his other year and a half, and he's improved since returning to the Yankees.

Bronson Arroyo: Arroyo is often cited as the ultimate case of a pitcher benefiting from moving leagues. After switching from the brutal AL East to the weak-hitting NL Central, he went from being a below-average pitcher to a very good one. He has since returned to Earth, however, suffering from a steadily increasing WHIP, ERA, and BAA. His 2006 year may have been partially from changing leagues, but the move to the NL doesn't seem to have permanently helped Bronson Arroyo become anything more than a mediocre major league pitcher.

Ted Lilly: Lilly moved from Toronto (and Oakland and New York before them) to the Cubs in 2006, and benefited from the move. The most noticeable benefit came in terms of his walks - his BB/9 ratio was cut nearly in half after he moved into the NL Central. (For comparison purposes, Arroyo - who made the same divisional leap a year earlier - had a virtually unchanged BB/9 ratio). His WHIP has dropped and K/9 has increased as well over the two years Lilly has spent in the NL. He's definitely become a better pitcher after moving to the NL.

Jamie Moyer: Moyer, the ageless wonder who is currently pitching for Philadelphia, moved from Seattle to the NL East in 2006. Since then, he's a had a slight statistical renaissance - his K/9 has gone up, and this year especially he's had a stellar drop in ERA. His numbers would be more impressive, except that he plays in perhaps the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. The move to the NL has probably helped him a little in the late stages of his career.

With all these examples, what can I conclude? Well, unfortunately, very little. Johnson, Clemens, Arroyo, Lilly, and Moyer all saw some boost from moving to the NL; I call Pettitte a wash, while Martinez benefited substantially from moving to the AL. Arroyo's boost was temporary, Clemens' was perhaps mitigated by other circumstances, and Moyer's has to be qualified by a ballpark rating. As owners of Johan Santana, who were looking for 300+ strikeouts this year, already know, moving from one league to another doesn't guarantee much of anything for a pitcher.

The Day in Review

The Mark Teixeira deal isn't done yet, but it may as well be. Here's why:

Injury News

• Both Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson have hit the Atlanta DL. Brian McCann is also hurt, but not currently DL-bound. Still, they can't believe the team can compete in the NL East shorthanded.
• Jorge Posada is finished for the year - he will undergo season-ending surgery. Zach today: "Boy am I glad I didn't overpay for catchers this year."
• John Maine left the game with shoulder tightness, but it doesn't appear to be too serious.
• Michael Young will be out for a week or so with a fractured finger. He's been a surprisingly reliable option at shortstop this year.

Notable Performances

• CC Sabathia failed to record a complete game against the Cubs today, proving that he is, in fact, mortal.
• Justin Morneau drove in three to back Kevin Slowey's complete game effort for Minnesota.
• Adam Dunn hit a grand slam, his 30th HR this year. 
• Adrian Beltre had a 2-HR night for Seattle.
• AJ Burnett struck out 10 in what was possibly his last start in Toronto (agree or disagree??)
• Adam Jones drove in 5 for Baltimore; D-Lee drove in 3 for the Cubs; Pujols drove in 3 for St. Louis.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Trade Deadline Week

Welcome all to one of the most exciting parts of the year for Fantasy Baseball players. The deadline, as you should know, is this coming Thursday. Teams at this point have a pretty good idea whether they are buyers or sellers, and many big names have been floated around. I'd like to open a competition to our readers:

Which of the following players will be traded, and where will they end up?

The rules are simple. Out of the following list of twenty players, predict where ten of them will be come Friday. We've seen Sabathia and Harden move, but will Burnett or Bedard join that list? Now that the Pirates are in sell mode, will they part with Jason Bay, the face of the franchise? Scoring is as follows: One point for predicting if the player moves, one additional point for predicting where he moves if you think a trade is coming. For example, if you think the Braves will hold on to Teixeira, and he stays, you get one point. But if you think he will get traded to the Yankees, and he does, you get two points. You would also get a point if you predicted he would get traded to the Yankees, but he gets traded to the Angels instead, since you successfully predicted his move.

Whoever gets the most points will be praised by all. Also, you will have the opportunity to post your current Fantasy Baseball roster with any concerns you may have, and at the very least Pete and I will help (and other readers probably will also).

So who do I want you to predict?

• Mark Teixeira
• Matt Holliday
• Brian Fuentes
• Raul Ibanez
• Jason Bay
• Adam Dunn
• Randy Winn
• Brian Roberts
• Jack Wilson
• Adrian Beltre
• Gerald Laird
• Casey Blake
• Gary Sheffield
• George Sherrill
• A.J. Burnett
• Huston Street
• Bronson Arroyo
• Vicente Padilla
• Jarod Washburn
• Greg Maddux

Good Luck!

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

Sorry for the delay, but I have this in for Monday if you are in a league that permits same-day adds (as the default ESPN leagues allow). Tomorrow will have an interesting MythBusters that I had hoped to advertise--Does changing leagues increase a pitcher's chance for success? If you have any opinions, be ready to post them. In the meantime, I'll focus on pitchers who already have probable starts...

Monday: Hiroki Kuroda is yet to face the Giants, but has done very well at home this season and his hot start of the season suggests hitters struggle the first few times they face him. Mark Buehrle is probably owned, but if not his start at Minnesota should go smoothly while the top of the AL Central dukes it out. Micah Owings has been pitching out of relief lately, but gets the start against San Diego at Petco. Despite his recent five run, one out outing, I think he should be respectable. Greg Maddux is on the other end of the start, but has struggled with Arizona recently. I wouldn't start Mike Mussina against Baltimore, as he couldn't even get through the first inning the last time against them.

Tuesday: Darrell Rasner was great against Baltimore the last time out, so its not a bad idea to try him out again. Gil Meche has been pitching well, and the Oakland offense shouldn't be too rough of a challenge. Greg Smith is already wearing down as the season passes, so I wouldn't start him on the other end of that game.

Wednesday: Sean Gallagher is going to encourage me to get an A's cap after a good outing versus Kansas City. 

Thursday: Nothing. Yes, that's right, there is only one good start coming between Wednesday and Thursday.

The Day in Review

Come on everyone, submit a response to the Trade Deadline Challenge. Am I the only one who thinks predicting deadline moves is fun? Because I'll be completely honest; I speculate on such topics in everyday conversations. We have four more days left, though its really only fair if answers come in before Thursday since otherwise "stay" becomes a pretty obvious option.

Injury News:

• Brian McCann will rest a few days after suffering a mild concussion. Rotoworld astutely notes that the need for a third catcher may push Chipper Jones onto the DL.
• Joel Zumaya left his game with right triceps tightness, and the oft-injured reliever will hopefully avoid the Disabled List.

Notable Performances:

• Alfonso Soriano hit his first homerun since returning from the DL, going 3-5 with two runs and three ribbies while Jeff Samardzija recorded his first major league save.
• Fernando Tatis recorded two doubes and a homer while bringing his average up to .318. What should we make of this guy from a reader who's watched him play?
• Geoff Blum homered twice for the Astros while Brad Ausmus went 4-4, raising his trade stock a bit.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

As the trade deadline approaches, more names move. Anthony Reyes is now a member of the Cleveland Indians, though it doesn't look like he'll be on their big-league roster initially. Now, on to the stuff we always report...

Injury News

• Dustin McGowan is set to have season-ending surgery. If you haven't dropped him already, it's time.
• Chris Carpenter is set to return in St. Louis. I don't think he's going to be too great, but I was wrong about BJ Ryan. It's been 16 months since Carpenter stepped on a mound and maybe he's ready to pitch.

Notable Performances

• Alex Rios - 2 HR, 3 RBI. He had such a tough first half, he has to improve on those numbers for the last 2+ months.
• Mark Teixeira had a three-run HR. Do you think he'll be a Brave in August?
• Torii Hunter hit 2 HR and drove in 5, helping Jon Garland get another victory in Baltimore.
• Adrian Gonzalez joined the 2 HR fun, driving in four and helping San Diego defeat Pittsburgh.
• Carlos Delgado hit 2 HR and drove in three.
• Tim Lincecum, 13 strikeouts in 7. Brandon Webb, 8 strikeouts in 7. Webb got the win, even though he gave up 3 earned and Lincecum only gave up 2. Baseball is a funny game sometimes.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Xavier Nady pulled from the game in the first thing? It can only mean one thing - yep, he's now a New York Yankee. I don't think this has a big effect on his value one way or another. 

Injury News

• Joe Crede is on the DL for the White Sox with back trouble yet again. Hopefully it's a short injury.

Notable Performances

• Josh Hamilton! has reached 100 RBI this year as the Rangers scored 14 against Oakland. His performance in the Derby will only enhance his place in baseball folklore.
• Joba struck out nine Red Sox in seven innings as the Yankees defeated the Red Sox. 
• Arizona (?) exploded against Jonathon Sanchez, scoring 10 runs in all. 
• Brian McCann had a stellar 2-HR, 5 RBI performance for Atlanta.
• Cliff Lee struck out 10 in eight innings to get his 14th win, but he did give up 2 ER in the process.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

Last day of relative quietude, so I hope you guys have weathered the storm. The Cubs finally won two in a row, though Carlos Marmol made things interesting in the ninth. Do I think the Brewers will win the Central? Nah, not too worried.

Injury News:

• Remember Marmol's ninth? Well it was due to the absence of Kerry Wood, who will be on the DL until Tuesday while he finishes his rehab on a blister. I wish I understood that injury well enough to predict his performance in the aftermath.
• Chipper Jones's hamstring injury probably won't land him on the DL, at least as far as the third basemen is admitting. I'm skeptical.

Notable Performances:

• Oliver Perez struck out twelve while giving up only one run against the Phillies. Giving up only six hits in 7.2 is a plus, but the one walk is the most encouraging sign.
• Matt Cain only needed the one run his offense provided, and took the start the distance to earn the CG Shutout.
• Pete is pessimistic about the Pirate outfield, but Bay, McClouth, and Nady all homered today while Pittsburgh blew out the Padres. Herrera's six shutout innings brought his ERA to 9.75...
• Two funny Cubs notes; Aramis Ramirez stole a base and Carlos Zambrano is batting .356. Should we start the .400 watch?

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

K-Rod saved his 42nd... wow. ESPN says he deserves MVP consideration. With only 3 blown saves in 4 months this season, I guess he at least should be mentioned. Also, Jon Rauch got traded to Arizona. He won't close initially but if Brandon Lyon pitches poorly, he has good experience in the ninth.

Injury News

• Chipper Jones pulled up lame with a hamstring injury while running to first. No word yet on how serious the injury is.
• Tim Hudson left after six scoreless with elbow tightness, in what became a very tough night for Atlanta. If both are out, that should increase Atlanta's willingness to move Mark Teixeira.

Notable Performances

• Adam Dunn drove in 5 and Bronson Arroyo pitched well as Cincinnati defeated San Diego.
• Mike Mussina struck out seven in 8 shutout innings for the Yankees.
• Carlos Quentin had two homers for the ChiSox against Texas.
• Armando Galarraga was perfect through six, but David DeJesus broke it up in the seventh. CC Sabathia took a no-hitter into the sixth, and finished with yet another complete game.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

If you've noticed the lack of activity on the week, I'll mentioned that I am on a week long internship and should be back posting too much too soon. But for now you'll have to settle for the staples while I entertain myself with alliteration.

Friday: Manny Parra is starting to seem like a bit of a sell high since he's so young, but against Houston and at home should be a good bet as maybe a farewell start. I love Sean Gallagher, and at home he is always a good bet. Aaron Cook is good at pitching in hitters' parks, and could be a good option against Cincinnati. 

Saturday: Jon Garland at Baltimore is probably good for a win since the Angels are a good team on the road. Derek Lowe might be auditioning for a trade, and a home start against Washington could raise his stock. I keep waiting to Jesse Litsch to cash in on a good start, and while he's disappointed me thus far, playing against Seattle should be a return to form.

Sunday: Clayton Kershaw against Washington is maybe the only start with much upside, though he shows a need for further polishing. Still, if you need someone to go in weekly leagues, he's probably the guy you want.

Midseason Position Rankings: Outfield

I expect this ranking to generate a whole bunch of dialogue - it was actually very difficult for me to do. There are so many players, it's easy to get overwhelmed, and tiers are pretty difficult to define. That being said, here's my attempt at ranking the outfielders from this point forward.

Tier 1

• Lance Berkman
• Carlos Lee
• Grady Sizemore
• Matt Holliday
• Ryan Braun
• Josh Hamilton

Did you know Berkman has 15 steals? The guy's 5-category production is at an all-time high. Lee continues to defy me and steal bases, and his position in Houston gives him a slight edge over Sizemore. The Cleveland star is looking at 30/30 with room for growth in batting average. Holliday falls because of the possibility he leaves Coors while Hamilton has the RBIs but injury concerns abound. Is Braun more valuable here or at third?

Tier 2

• Alfonso Soriano
• Ichiro Suzuki
• Carlos Beltran
• Pat Burrell
• Milton Bradley
• Adam Dunn

These guys are aggressively pushing the top tier. I can't call the injured Soriano a top tier - he won't drive in runs from the leadoff spot when he returns from his injuries, but Zach expects great production from him the rest of the year. Ichiro's lack of power limits him to 3-category value, and no matter how good his numbers, that isn't top tier material. Beltran's numbers don't make up for his weak average. Burrell hasn't stolen a single base this year, and with Milton Bradley, health is always a major concern. I begrudgingly admit that Dunn leads outfielders in HR, but you have to sacrifice SB and average in exchange. Still, he belongs here.

Tier 3

• Carl Crawford
• BJ Upton
• Corey Hart
• Nick Markakis
• Vladimir Guerrero
• Magglio Ordonez
• Jermaine Dye
• Manny Ramirez
• Jason Bay
• Carlos Quentin
• Matt Kemp
• Alex Rios

I know I don't have these guys ordered right. Am I wrong to wait this long for Crawford? His power still hasn't developed, and now his average stinks. Upton had a slightly better first half but Crawford is the better bet going forward. Hart could go 25/25, Markakis 30/20 with a better average. Vlad looks good here and is move-able if he gets in a slump. Kemp has more power than most high-SB players (root for more injuries in the LA outfield). Ordonez, Dye, Ramirez, and Bay are all veterans with good four-category production. No reason to believe in a major drop-off from any.

Tier 4

• Nate McClouth
• Curtis Granderson
• J.D. Drew
• Xavier Nady
• Rick Ankiel
• Ryan Ludwick
• David DeJesus
• Kosuke Fukudome
• Torii Hunter
• Bobby Abreu
• Chone Figgins
• Raul Ibanez

Granderson was an early pick for a reason - do you think he'll show it the rest of the way?Quentin has been good, Nady needs to get healthy to keep up that average. Rios has great steal numbers, and do you really think he'll only have seven homers this season? Ankiel and Ludwick are both having dream years from the Cards, and I believe they'll wake up before the season ends. DeJesus has some talent and it's finally showing through - Zach and I have liked him for years. Fukudome looks great because of a lot of home games and favorable splits. Hunter and Abreu are like Vlad and Mags, and neither really has any splits for their career. Expect solid second-half production. I think McLouth was somewhat of a flash-in-the-pan, but he's been good so far in July after a dismal June. I can't get excited about Figgins, but I guess there's no reason he can't steal bags the rest of the way. Ibanez would look great in Arizona or New York - that's the biggest reason he's up here.

Tier 5

• Jacoby Ellsbury
  
• Delmon Young
• Shane Victorino
• Randy Winn
• Nick Swisher
• Jose Guillen
• Jay Bruce
• Joey Votto
• Juan Rivera
• Hunter Pence
• Andre Ethier
• Aaron Rowand

Ellsbury will benefit a lot from Ortiz's return, but .260 really stinks (why not own Juan Pierre?). Delmon Young has the talent to be up a tier, but hasn't shown it this season. Victorino, well, I wish he scored more runs in that Phillies lineup. Winn is always forgotten and seems to provide decent stats. Swisher had a bad start but may be adjusting to Chicago. Guillen has hit well for Kansas City. It's hard to predict how the pair of young Reds will end up - my guess is they each have another hot streak before the season ends. Rivera, if he can break into the Angels lineup, could provide some value (or he could get traded). If Pence can bring his LD% closer to his career number, that should help with his .265 first half BA. With Ethier, you root for injury in Dodgertown. Rowand, always unspectacular, is own-able. 

The Day in Review

Tomorrow, we will post our final segment of our Midseason Position Rankings, and of course we are a bit beyond the midpoint of the season. Still, it should be good to look at outfield, which was a very challenging position to rank. I'm sure you will have lots of complaints, so get your fightin' words ready.

Injury News:

• Wagner and Kerry Wood both look like they will avoid the DL, but the Cubs don't really feel like scoring in close games so it might not matter...

Notable Performances:

• Randy Wolf is now an Astro, while Jon Rauch is now a Diamondback. They both get a little more value, but I'm surprised at how cheaply they were gotten.
• Joe Blanton surrendered five runs in six innings, but was lucky enough to escape with a no decision in his first start on the Phillies rotation. He won't have additional "NL" value.
• Chris Davis homered, and ranks 1st in the category of homeruns per game started. And I love him.
• Clayton Kershaw was recalled, but didn't look good giving up five in three innings.

There are some other games still going on, but for now, that's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

I cannot explain to you how sick I am of hearing about Brett Favre. I wish athletes would just retire with some dignity.

Injury News

• Billy Wagner's shoulder is being examined for tightness. No word on DL implications, but you might want to grab Duaner Sanchez if you're in the market for cheap saves.
• Jorge Posada is back on the DL. If you paid for his numbers last season in your draft, I hate to say it, but: We told you so.

Notable Performances

• A-Rod hit a two-run homer to help assure the Yankees life without Jorge will be okay.
• Scott Kazmir struck out 9 in seven shutout innings and BJ Upton stole bases number 29 and 30 for Tampa.
• Miguel Cabrera had 4 RBI and Gary Sheffield 3 more as Detroit scored 16 runs against KC.
• Javier Vazquez struck out 10 in seven, but Josh Hamilton brought his RBI total to 98 for the year as Texas defeated the ChiSox.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

Again, I'm a bit rushed, so I'll head straight in. Forgive me, and after this week we should be back to a more regular schedule.

Monday: Jon Lester, with Safeco behind him and the Mariners in front, should be good for a win and a several K's. Jesse Litsch, if unowned, is also a good start against Baltimore.

Tuesday: Darrell Rasner and Jason Bergmann aren't especially great pitchers, but against the Twins and Giants they should be provide some value in an empty early week.

Wednesday: Mike Mussina is worth consideration against the Twins, while Jeremy Guthrie (vs. Tor) and Ricky Nolasco (vs. Atl) are riskier options with some upside.

Thursday: Tim Redding at San Francisco isn't great, but it's the best their is. I feel somewhat guilty that I'm in a rush, because honestly their aren't many great starts. A lot of usually marginal pitcher are heading to hitters parks, so you'll have that.

The Day in Review

Hey all, I've got to get a couple posts in real quick before I hit the sack before an early rise. That said, I'll skip the usual chatter and get to the point (by the way the Cubs finally won)...

Injury News:

• It's barely news, but Bedard will be out until August.
• Another team's ace, Roy Oswalt, will hit the DL with a hip abductor strain. He's supposed to return and make his start as soon as eligible.

Notable Performances:

• Andy Pettitte struck out nine while walking none in his eight innings of one run ball, earning him the win. He's been respectable this season to say the least.
• Gary Sheffield is back to batting third, and stole his second base in as many days. There's still hope he will have a little value through the remainder of the season.
• Austin Kearns scored five times over six at bats, contributing a third of the Nats fifteen runs. He could have some value in deeper leagues over the second half.
• Alex Rios hit only his fifth homer, while Evan Longoria hit his eighteenth and Pena his fifteenth. Would anyone have expected those three players to be ordered anything short of opposite that heading into the season?
• Up four to one, Brandon Webb left in the eighth figuring he would get the win. Shortly after, Brandon Lyon gave up five earned in two thirds of an inning. Now it would be Jonathon Broxton's turn, but with a two run lead he safely gave up only one en route to his second save of the season.

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

So last night, I wrote my post early, which meant I failed to give props to CC Sabathia. He's been a heck of a pitcher after his terrible, terrible April.

Injury News

• Pedro will miss his start Tuesday to get more time off for his shoulder. 
• Ryan Zimmerman is coming off the DL. I had him stashed in one league, although I have A-Rod blocking his way. One or the other will be trade fodder soon. (PS He's not a bad option for those afraid of a weak 2nd half from Chipper Jones)
• Roy Oswalt is on the DL, but it's retroactive to July 12. 
• The Mariners say Erik Bedard won't take a mound until August. No word yet as to how this affects his status in a trade; maybe they just want to be careful he doesn't get hurt before they can sell him off.

Notable Performances

• Stat that makes me laugh: Grady Sizemore, 0-for-2 with 4 walks. That's a .000 average but a .667 OBP. Hmmm...
• Jonathon Sanchez, a name we debated previously, struck out 8 in 5 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the bullpen did him no favors and he allowed 4 earned in that time.
• Quick Hits: Albert Pujols drove in four for St. Louis. Evan Longoria also drove in 4 for TB with a grand slam off Roy Halladay. Josh Beckett threw an 8-inning complete game against the Angels. Dan Haren struck out seven in seven shutout innings against LA's other team, the Dodgers. 

Finally, look for outfield rankings in the not-too-distant future (I promise!). That's what you need to know about the day.

Midseason Position Rankings: Third Base

Well, we are almost at the conclusion of our Midseason Position Rankings, and so far it's been an interesting journey. Things change quickly, and one of those is the recent force the Ortiz has been in the minors, suggesting a quick ascent through that second tier. But right now I want to focus on the hot corner, which has delivered many a success story this season. Onward!

Tier One:

• Alex Rodriguez
• David Wright
• Ryan Braun

Yes, A-Rod is still the king of fantasy baseball despite fulfilling that even-year prophecy. In almost 100 fewer at-bats, he's beating Wright in homers and steals, and will soon catch him in runs and ribbies while his average exceeds the face of the Mets. Braun, to me, was a surprise, but watching him play even a few innings proves he is the real deal. If only the Brewers could put men on ahead of him, as 17 of his 23 homers have been solo shots.

Tier Two:

• Aramis Ramirez
• Miguel Cabrera
• Garrett Atkins
• Chipper Jones

Here we have another three-star tier. While I missed on Braun, I was right to assert Ramirez's value would be equal to, or even exceed, Cabrera's. Ramirez is tied for second among hot corners in RBIs, and will score 100 times while driving in 100. Cabrera started slow, but that whole offense has too much talent for him not to succeed. Atkins may come as a bit of a surprise, but given Jones's injury history and the formers post-Break splits (at least .150 higher OPS in each of the past two seasons), I'm expected good things.

Tier Three:

• Mike Lowell
• Evan Longoria

This is the short tier before the fall. These guys have fewer question marks than the remainder of the field, and will help in every category without severely hampering your average. There are question marks about Longoria's stamina, but so far he's been Braun-esque and not Gordon-esque, so a solid second half isn't out of the question.

Tier Four:

• Adrian Beltre
• Troy Glaus
• Alex Gordon
• Joe Crede
• Edwin Encarnacion
• Hank Blalock
• Casey Blake
• Jorge Cantu
• Mark Reynolds

Beltre will receive a boost in value if the rumored trade to the Twins materializes. Glaus has been great this season, and while I think his value will tail off he should still exceed many of his peers. Gordon has a lot of potential, and I will like him heading into any future season more than the bottom tier. Crede, Encarnacion, Blake, and Cantu could all hit double digit (but barely) homers before the season ends, but that average will sit south of .280. And Reynolds average may be even lower, that is if he doesn't lose playing time to Chad Tracy while Tony Clark (or if a corner outfield acquisition leads to Conor Jackson playing a corner infield spot).

The Day in Review

Hey all, welcome back from another memorable All-Star Break. One of these days, baseball will just admit that the game is an exhibition. Until then, I guess I'll continue to look forward to a David Wright v. JD Drew pitching match-up.

Injury News

• Takashi Saito is probably done for this season. Surgery and rehab are both being tossed around as options, but I wouldn't expect the Dodger closer to be anything special the rest of the way. If your league was shallow enough for Broxton to be unowned, grab him
• Justin Upton hit the Arizona DL. Not a huge story, his .242 average isn't a true measure of his talent.

Notable Performances

• Bronson Arroyo: 8 innings, 4 strikeouts, 2 earned. Not saying he's going to be an ace but hey, he's got plenty of room for a second-half rebound.
• A-Rod - drove in 3 runs and now has 20 HR on the year. Brian McCann also drove in three for Atlanta, as did Ryan Ludwick for St. Louis. Way to go, All-Stars!
• Zack Greinke: the anti-Bronson Arroyo. 3 innings, 7 earned. We'll take a more in-depth look at him, but if you can grab him for cheap off a panicky owner, I promise he won't be this bad the rest of the year.

So, otherwise, Joe Blanton is even less own-able now that he's in Philadelphia, and Richie Sexson isn't going to remember how to turn on a fastball just because he's in pinstripes. That's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starters: Special Edition

You've all been waiting for this--the "special edition" of our Strategic Spot Starters segment. Granted, it is only special because it runs Thursday through Sunday, so yes, the word "special" was blatant pandering to try to accumulate viewers. I'd like to blame CNN for infecting my vocabulary with the word pandering.

Thursday: Kyle Lohse gets San Diego at home, and they are pretty much my favorite spot start opponent. Two notes though; first, I personally would never play any of the Cardinals; Second, San Diego is the only team whose entire starting lineup I cannot name position-by-position. They are that un-noteworthy. Ubaldo Jimenez is a risky start against Pittsburgh at Coors, but is worth the nod if you are in head-to-head leagues and your opponent lucked into a stacked short week.

Friday: Mike Mussina is having a solid bounceback season, and I like his chances at home against Oakland. Another veteran, Greg Maddux, is nothing if not an intelligent pitcher, and probably knows how to pitch to the Cardinals after 56 career starts (26-20, with a 2.74 ERA). Hiroki Kuroda pitched decently against Arizona the last time they faced, and since he's been hot lately is worth a look. 

Saturday: Greg Smith against New York is an interesting spot start, since ordinarily the Yankees aren't your ideal "roll-over-and-die" opponent. However, their problems with lefty pitchers are so great they are seriously considering adding Richie Sexson, so... Gavin Floyd against the Royals is a traditional start, and he might be available in some leagues due to the recent inflation of his ERA.

Sunday: Andrew Miller dominated the Phillies the last time they faced, and as long as the game is in Florida I trust him to have some K-upside and decent peripherals. San Francisco is another traditional spot start opponent, but Manny Parra's road woes are a concern of mine. Career numbers of Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield also ward me away from their starts at Arizona and Anaheim, respectively. 

Mythbusters: Homerun Derby Hangover

This entire post is lifted from our friends over at FantasyHurlers.com. They run a great site and are one of the few Fantasy Baseball blogs that I read regularly (I don't know if this makes me a bad analyst or not--but I do spend a lot of time on FanGraphs, probably too much time. Anyway, it fit our bill perfectly and I promise to plug for the author, Mike Bock. So go read their site and comment frequently.

Bobby Abreu (unless he's changed his tune) blamed the Home Run Derby for screwing up his swing. Anecdotally, there are a few other guys who complained about the Derby. I would imagine that professional hitters, even if they do get themselves out of whack, would figure out the problem within a week or two. Still, let's look at the evidence.

Abreu was never a big home-run hitter (though he had a few big-time years). It's plausible that his line-drive oriented swing (as opposed to an upper-cutter like Ken Griffey Jr.) might get wonky. But, maybe Abreu just got old or regressed to the mean, and it's merely a coincidence that it happened shortly after the 2005 Derby. He hit 18 home runs that year before the break and only six after. He hasn't topped 20 since. Hmm, have we seen the same downturn from anyone else?

Well, 2006 winner Ryan Howard smashed something like 89 home runs after that year's break (or, about 30), so no help there. Last year, Vlad hit almost identical numbers before and after the break. In 2004, Miguel Tejada hit 19 after and only 15 before. You must go all the way back to 2003 to find a drop-off similar to Abreu's: Garrett Anderson hit only seven in the second half after launching 22 in the first.

I stopped looking around 1999, but I didn't see anyone else with an unusually large drop in performance. So, basically, the Derby curse looks unfounded. Maybe the guys that lost the Derby are the ones that truly messed up their swings, but I doubt (if I looked) that would be the case.

So, does this mean I think you should sell Josh Hamilton? I do, but not because of the Derby. He abused his body for a long time, may not be ready to go a full season, and his numbers are so insane they're likely unsustainable. If you can get a Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez (any news on his shoulder?) for Hamilton and a middling SS, do it

Midseason Position Rankings: First Base

This is probably where I will get the most hate mail, but oh well. As far as I'm concerned, first base is first and foremost a power position. Failing to accumulate 30+ bombs can set you back in both HRs and RBIs, and for this reason I tend to value power over well-roundedness. That said, we will start with some overall great players...

Tier One:

• Lance Berkman
• Albert Pujols
• Ryan Howard

I wanted to rank Pujols first, if only to burn all those people who passed on him and reward anyone who took the risk on him in the first round. But Berkman leads Pujols in every offensive category except average, and his additional dozen steals are no small part in the lead. Coupled with the fact that Berkman has hit noticeably better in the second half of the last three seasons (100 points better in OPS in 2007 and 2005, to be exact), and you realize just how good of a season the Astro is having. Pujols will continue to buffer your average and will probably reach around 35 homeruns, but his run and RBI numbers pail in comparison and some regression from Ludwick and Ankiel has to be in the cards. Howard is in a league of his own when it comes to power, and will likely be the only player to exceed 50 HRs on the season. Sure, his average isn't pretty, but as a second half hitter himself I bet he will more than outweigh that deficit.

Tier Two:

• Mark Teixeira
• Prince Fielder
• Derrek Lee
• Adrian Gonzalez
• David Ortiz
• Justin Morneau

Teixeira is such a second half hitter that I will excuse his inferior stats and expect a trade to an AL powerhouse such as Boston or Anaheim. Fielder is the beneficiary of my power-first system, but the Brewers don't put enough batters on base for him to drive in, while Ryan Braun bats .314 with RISP ahead of him. Lee barely gets the nod over Gonzalez; both are set for solid second halves but the Padres are likely going to be sellers, and that offense really can't sustain his current production. Ortiz has some injury concerns but says that he's healthy; just remember how much power he lost last season while playing through injury. Morneau almost misses out based on his poor second half track record and his winning of the home run derby, but the Twins are looking to buy a bat like Adrian Beltre and I like the Twins to improve offensively.

Tier Three:

• Adam LaRoche
• Jason Giambi
• Kevin Youkilis
• Conor Jackson
• Aubrey Huff
• Carlos Pena
• Joey Votto

LaRoche shows ridiculous post Break splits and is already making solid contact with the ball on a resurgent Pirates offense. Giambi has a good shot to hit 35+ homers this season, and the Yankees offense is sure to help those drives count for more than solo shots. Youkilis gets a bad rap for being a first half player, but he's young and should be getting used to a full season. Conor Jackson and Joey Votto are young, and both should bring power and some speed. Votto will benefit from moving up in the lineup once the Reds trade some of their outfield vets. Aubrey Huff is the real sleeper here; he has twelve more homeruns after the All Star Break than before in 300 fewer at-bats.

Tier Four:

• Paul Konerko
• James Loney
• Carlos Delgado
• Mike Jacobs
• Todd Helton
• Casey Kotchman
• Matt Stairs
• Ryan Garko

Konerko and Delgado will have to prove their health to escape this last tier, while Loney and Garko really needs to show some more power to even stay here. Loney never had a minor league track record of power, but the Dodgers will put runners on ahead of him and he'll hit for the best average of the group. Kotchman might get traded in a Teixeira deal; giving him a boost in value. If he doesn't get traded, he will be riding the pine. Matt Stairs is the sleeper of the bench, since he's been connected to Arizona where I think he could post great numbers.

Midseason Position Rankings: Second Base

Now to the other side of the middle infield, and probably my favorite position if only because it is the one I once played. While second base is traditionally considered a weak offensive category, the slot is called home by power hitters Chase Utley and Dan Uggla, along with all-around batters Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler alongside speedsters Chone Figgins and B.J. Upton. Because of the relative diversity in speciality, it's tough to rank these guys. Consider this a flexible list, because different guys will have drastically different value based on your team's needs.

Tier One:

• Chase Utley

This one is easy; Utley is in a class of his own. Granted, his numbers have been down in comparison to his hot start, but with his track record and a scary Phillies lineup, Utley blows away the competition. There's really not enough I could say about the slugger, but its worth mentioning while he is a lock for 100 R and 100 RBI, he's got a good shot of 45+ homers and 20+ steals on the season (add to that a BABIP 35 points lower than his career numbers and better isolated power numbers than last season).

Tier Two:

• Brandon Phillips
• Ian Kinsler
• Brian Roberts
• B.J. Upton

If I didn't have FanGraphs.com available, I would be more smitten by this group. In truth, the ordering isn't much better than if I had arbitrarily assembled the tier, but that because all of these batters have BABIPs around .350 except for Brandon Phillips. Phillips will probably get his 100 RBIs but an Adam Dunn trade will cost him a good shot of scoring 100 times himself. Kinsler, already with 82 runs, will easily accomplish that feat, but his average right now is a fluke. If Roberts is traded I would probably place him above Kinsler, provided he stays in the American league and isn't blessed with the rare pitcher on base to drive in. Upton hasn't been great so far, but last season's power must be in there somewhere and he could easily steal fifty bags.

Tier Three:

• Dan Uggla
• Chone Figgins
• Robinson Cano
• Dustin Pedroia

If you can pull it off, trade Uggla for Cano and someone decent, because they could easily put up similar numbers in the second half. I've mentioned Uggla as an overperformer, and a lot of it has to do with his insanely out of whack BABIP and HR/FB. In only his third year, the power could be legitimate, but when half your hits are flyballs the slightest drop in power means a drastic drop in average. Figgins has been a disappointment, but as he distances himself from early season injury his steals should come back. Cano last season sat at .274, 6 HR, 2 SB, but posted a Post All Star of .953 OPS and 13 HR. Again, he is a talent that is just underperforming, but is quickly establishing himself as a second half hitter. Pedroia is a catalyst in one of the best offenses, and once Big Papi returns he should score even more often while batting for a respectable average.

Tier Four:

• Placido Polanco
• Howie Kendrick
• Mark DeRosa
• Kelly Johnson
• Orlando Hudson
• Mark Ellis
• Ty Wigginton
• Alexei Ramirez
• Jose Lopez
• Kazuo Matsui
  
• Clint Barmes
• Ricke Weeks
• Alexi Casilla
• Yunel Escobar

I probably forgot someone, but at this point it really doesn't matter. I'm tempted to finish the list with Eugenio Velez, but he needs more time in the minors. Really, just base your picking from here on team needs, because the only balanced players sit in the top four, and they aren't anything special. I wish I had more faith in Kendrick, but with leg woes his preseason expectations of 30 SBs are a pipe dream. Also, I could have easily forgotten someone, so let me know.

The Day in Review

I'm pretty exhausted, and of course the Pirates lost at the game I attended today. Always fun wearing Cubs gear at a Pirates-Cardinals game, but at least the knowledgeable knew where my allegiance would lie for the day.

Injury News:

• This happened last night after I posted, but Takashi Saito appeared to injury his elbow. He's not the youngest Japanese import, so there is reason for concern.

Notable Performances:

• Despite a 4.15 ERA, Justin Verlander has thrown 11 quality starts in his past 12 appearances. Today he struck out eight in seven innings of two-run ball.
• Masa Kobayashi seems to be Cleveland's closer now that Borowski is gone.
• CC Sabathia struck out nine while throwing a complete game for the Brewers in 122 pitches. He hit a homer, so subbing him for a PH isn't logical, but I'm concerned about the pitching abuse points heading into a long break.
• Brian McCann went 3-3 with 3 ribbies and 3 runs (1 HR). Fun looking boxscore.
• Chad Billingsley struck out thirteen in seven innings of one-run ball. He's been one of the most valuable pitchers this year despite limited press.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

Now for this week's Roundtable Discussion. I thought it was an interesting question, and after reading through some of the comments Tim got, I have a few reservations about to be mentioned. But first, the question...

Do you have any fantasy baseball strategies that buck the conventional wisdom?

Now, I felt most of the answers were spot on, and I'll mention some of my favorites: Brett Greenfield, Patrick DiCaprio, and Rudy Gamble (check out their sites by clicking their name on Tim's post). Some of the comment's rejected certain responses as not fitting the question, or better stated, reciting rather than bucking conventional wisdom. I think this stems from a lack of emphasis by the respondents. I trust these guys enough to know that their strategies aren't merely "back of the mind" heuristics but rather strickly held philosophies, so don't know them.

The Day in Review

Well, all those nay-sayers pointing out Harden's lack of velocity and lackluster return should take notice of his to-be-described outing coupled with his 98 mph fastballs. Cubs fans should recognize that the team is currently 5.5 games ahead of the entire NL, which is an impressive accomplishment. But it is only the All Star Break, and as the Rays have shown, any lead can blow away.

Injury News:

• Our king-of-fantasy Hanley Ramirez seems jinxed, and had to be pulled with a shoulder injury. Good news for people who love bad news? It isn't the shoulder he had surgery on in the off season. Bad news? He seemed pretty hurt, but hopefully he recuperates over the break rather than playing while hurt.
• Pedro Martinez, who had been justifying our ranking, was pulled with soreness in what was called a precautionary move. He really isn't worth much more than a marginal pitcher, so consider your options.

Notable Performances:

• First, I encourage you to read the article over at ESPN right now about the first half, since even they can't mess that up. It's a fun read.
• Harden? 5.1 innings, 10 strikeouts, no runs. Edinson Volquez? 7.0 innings, 10 strikeouts, 1 earned run. Ervin Santana? 7.0 innings, ten strikeouts, no runs. Pretty great outings.
• Kevin Youkilis launched a grandslam, tallying a total of six K's. The Red Sox are going to be sick once Ortiz returns.
• Jason Bay could only accumulate five ribbies, but had two homers to pull it off. Adam LaRoche and Nate McClouth each had their own. And the shame of it is I am going to tomorrow's game.

I also wanted to suggest tuning into FantasyGameday for their coverage of the Future's Game. They are hosting a live blog and interaction-through-comments section starting at 12:00 tomorrow (Sunday, July 13th). That's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy All-Star Team: Round-by-Round

So I gave this collection of hitters and pitchers that would make a fantastic team. But what would it have looked like at draft time? Here's a rough approximation. Italics are players I didn't analyze that were available in that round.

Round 1: Hanley Ramirez, FLA

Round 2: Grady Sizemore, CLE

Round 3: Lance Berkman, HOU

Round 4: CC Sabathia, CLE

Round 5: Francisco Rodriguez, LAA

Round 6: Chipper Jones, ATL

Round 7: Adrian Gonzalez, SD

Round 8: Ian Kinsler, TEX

Round 9: Mariano Rivera, NYY

Round 10: John Lackey, LAA

Round 11: Scott Kazmir, TB

Round 12: Josh Hamilton, TEX

Round 13: Tim Lincecum, SF

Round 14: Joakim Soria, KC

Round 15: Ben Sheets, MIL

Round 16: Kosuke Fukudome, CHC

Round 17: Dustin Pedroia, BOS

Round 18: Kerry Wood, CHC

Round 19: Geovany Soto, CHC

Round 20: Nate McLouth, PIT

Round 21: Evan Longoria, TB

Round 22: Zack Greinke, KC

Round 23: Joey Votto, CIN

And if that wasn't enough, here are some names that were available on the waiver wire throughout the year: Justin Duchscherer, Edinson Volquez, Cliff Lee, John Danks, Aaron Cook, Jon Rauch, Jay Bruce, and Carlos Quentin. That's another All-Star pitching staff from waivers alone. So now you've got the whole thing. What were my best and worst picks? Where do you disagree with me, and what is my weakest position?

The Day in Review

The All-Star Break is nearly upon us. Here's how those final games in the season's first half are shaking down.

Injury News

• Kelvim Escobar's season is over after shoulder surgery. Hopefully you weren't still waiting on him; nonetheless, he has fallen hard from being a trendy draft pick this spring.
• Roy Oswalt threw only one inning and a DL stint looks imminent.

Notable Performances

• Ryan Howard with another home run. The guy is a monster.
• Roy Halladay with another complete game, this one a two-hit, nine strikeout shutout. Really wish I could've included him on my mid-season All-Star team.
• Aramis Ramirez drove in all three runs as the Cubs beat the Giants.
• Did you know Rick Ankiel has 20 homers this year?
• Jake Peavy went seven shutout innings for the second straight game, striking out 7 Braves. He could be gearing up for a big second half.

Also, I'd be remiss to not mention Francisco Liriano, looming on the horizon. I don't think he'll be dominant this season but he's worth the risk if you need the help. That's what you need to know about the day.

Midseason Position Rankings: Shortstop

Well, I figured I'd post a position ranking now, though they should all be up by the end of next week (since "The Day in Review" won't exist during the All Star Break, which is the greatest advent of all time).. I've had very little luck considering these players, since there are far too many question marks, but I did the best I could and expect an angry poster or two to explain just how wrong I was. In these criticisms, please be as articulate as possible, as to better apprehend my failure and the correct arrangement of the fielding-sixers.

Tier One:

• Hanley Ramirez
• Jose Reyes

I'm not a huge fan of one-player tiers, but these two could just as easily be the entire tier one and the entire tier two. Ramirez boasts fourteen more homers and better stats in every category but steals, where Reyes beats him out 32-22. My issue with Ramirez is that he's shown himself to be streaky, and already sported two such streaks (one recently, one to start the season). I have him pegged for another, though the fish should come back to earth (less runs and RBIs) and I expect his SBs totals to taper off if Florida acquires the quick leadoff batter they've been eyeing (possibly Taveras). Reyes on the other hand should steal bases at a higher rates, and acquiring him now gives you a good shot of moving up several rankings in both the runs and SB categories.

Tier Two:

• Jimmy Rollins

Okay, I broke my word, but do we really expect Rollins to approach the youngsters brilliance? I didn't think so, nor do I personally expect anyone to approach the Phillies shortstop. With twenty fewer games than either, Rollins ties Ramirez in steals. Also, Howard heating up and time since the last injury should lead to better run totals, more hits, and more dingers. He's just not going to catch either in average, Reyes in speed, or Ramirez in power.

Tier Three:

• Michael Young
• Carlos Guillen
• Derek Jeter
• Miguel Tejada

None of these guys are young, and I ranked them in accordance with how I see their offenses performing heading forward. The Rangers will see improvements from Chris Davis (one of my favorite sleepers), and Saltalamacchia, while also sporting a sickening outfield of Hamilton, Bradley, and Murphy. The Tigers have been disappointments, but Guillen could go 20-20, which no one else here will. Jeter and Tejada are not doing great, but their track record helps them escape a lower tier, while the length of that track record places them at the bottom of this list.

Tier Four:

• Ryan Theriot
• J.J. Hardy
• Johnny Peralta
• Orlando Cabrera
• Steven Drew
• Edgar Renteria

Theriot will give you speed, no power, and an average around .275 through the rest of the season (as a Cubs fan, I won't be unrealistic: his .314 average isn't for real (but he will finish the year with 30+ SBs). Hardy is hot, but was once liquid nitrogen cold, and will be closer to the latter at some point. Peralta has the upside to launch 30 homers, while Cabrera could provide a solid balance, but none of these guys will give provide much else.

Tier Five:

• Rafael Furcal
• Khalil Greene
• Ramon Vazquez
• Maicer Izturis
• Julio Lugo
• Yunel Escobar
• Matt Aviles

Furcal will probably miss most of the season, but as a pending FA he might try to prove his health. Greene hasn't really had a hot stretch as should find one, while the rest are options in deep leagues but have little value anywhere else. Christian Guzman should be traded.

The Day in Review

Well, I figured I'd update you a little on the SportsWriters league you helped me with. Currently, I'm in fourth, but my team was in eighth rather recently so I've been having success as of late. My pitching has been killing me, with a terrible WHIP and ERA, that I have tried to mend with a solid bullpen. Today I tried to revamp the SP core, and my first order of business was adding Josh Johnson and Oliver Perez. 

Injury News:

• The Jays are sellers, and while McGowan won't need surgery as at one point today suspected, Vernon Wells will hit the DL for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring strain. 
• Aaron Harang will hit the DL with a forearm strain. As I've said before, a retroactive DL stint usually means only one missed start for a pitcher around the All Star Break, so consider is a good break (and a buy low).

Notable Performances:

• Ted Lilly looked bad, though the especially homer-friendly confines had a lot to do with it. David Ross hit his second and third homers to contribute to the seven-homer affair by the Reds.
• Justin Morneau knows he's not allowed to hit after the break (or that's what you'd think if you followed every fantasy analyst), so he hit a homer, two singles, and two doubles in his 5-5 day.
• Not to be outdone, Ryan Howard took the league lead in homers with two today, bringing him to 27 on the season. I think he'll be around a long time.
• While walking none and striking out thirteen, David Bush won while giving up only one unearned run against the Rockies. He's worth spot starting while at home.
• Howie Kendrick was recently offered to me for Daisuke Matsuzaka, though it would take more than his 2-homer night to convince me he's worth the risk. Once he starts running, I'll be exploring that possibility. Vlad Guerrero had the stolen base of the day. 
  

Strategic Spot Starting: Weekend Edition

Well, the start I'll be most interested in is Rich Harden's, though I agree with some of the responses on MLBTradeRumors.com that Harden should be rested through the break and Marshall should be given that additional start. But since Harden shouldn't be available on your waiver wire (and if so you need a far more competitive league), who might fill your start spotter cravings?

Friday: Manny Parra, he of the 2.70 home ERA, faces Cincinnati for the first time in his career. I think the Reds will struggle with the young starter, so there is a lot of upside in the start. Jon Garland is coming off a complete-game, one run win over Toronto, and faces Oakland (his second most recent start was against them, where he struck out six while giving up two earned). On the other end of this match is Sean Gallagher in his first start wearing green. I think he will be great in Oakland, if not this year then next, and he should be added while he tests out the Even-More-Pitcher-Friendly Confines. I think he'll get the win and those strikeouts are encouraging. Kyle Lohse has a career ERA of 2.51 against Pittsburgh, though their lineup has been decent as of late so I don't consider them the automatic W. Somewhat surprisingly, Aaron Cook has faced the Mets already twice this year, and faired pretty well though his stuff isn't the kind that should breeze through that lineup nine times.

Saturday: Gil Meche faces his former team when he goes up against Seattle, who struggles with righties this year. Tim Wakefield against Baltimore is a solid start, as he's been solid at Fenway thus far. Hiroki Kuroda, while on a roll, doesn't have a great matchup against the fish, who hit well on the road and against righties. Jesse Litsch (Yankees) and Dana Eveland (Angels) are always good risks, but they face great offenses.

Sunday: Don't start Andrew Miller or Nick Blackburn; just start your All Star Break a little early, and hopefully with a good chance of winning your league.

The Day in Review

Welcome back, Mark Mulder. You are the St. Louis answer to CC Sabathia and Rich Harden.

Thanks for playing, Mark Mulder. It was a great 16 pitches.

Injury News

• Can't even call Mulder back on the DL news. Dustin McGowan is on the DL for Toronto. Rotoworld is not optimistic and suggests that a two-week stay could easily turn into a two month stay. Hope not.
• Bobby Jenks is shut down through the All-Star Break. His injury is a more conventional "take two asprin and see me in the morning" type, and nothing long-term has been suggested.
• Ryan Spilborghs has joined Tulo on the Colorado DL with an oblique strain. He's been a big surprise - should I add him to the bench of my All-Star team?

Notable Performances

• Derek Lowe briefly flirted with perfection, but a Jeff Francoeur HR means he left without even a shutout for his efforts.
• Carlos Quentin hit two homers to lead the ChiSox past KC.
• 11 strikeouts in 6 innings wasn't enough for Ben Sheets. Two Garrett Atkins HRs made the difference as Colorado beat Milwaukee.
• Lance Berkman - two steals against Pittsburgh. The guy is just having an incredible year.
• Boston scored 18 - Youkilis led the way with 4 RBI and Manny added 3 more. 

Nothing witty tonight - that's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy All-Star Team: The Hurlers

As promised, here is the staff of my fantasy All-Star team. I want to highlight five drafted starters who could easily be picked, had you picked the lineup I presented yesterday, as well as three closers. I began with the lineup and moved to the staff because I believe it's easier to work with undrafted pitching by either spot starting or playing the waiver wire. With that in mind, here we go.

Starter: John Lackey, LAA

Okay, I know we're starting off with a pair of guys who suffered through injury, but if you were willing to take the risk you could definitely be rewarded. Lackey has only walked 14 in his 10 starts this year, a big reason why his WHIP is under 1 (0.94). He's been racking up innings in his return - his July 5 start against Toronto was the first where he didn't go at least 7 innings. The Angels hurler isn't a strong July pitcher, but has been great so far and I expect him to have a solid second half. ESPN ADP = 97.4

Starter: Scott Kazmir, TB

The great thing about Kazmir and Lackey is that they're both Tier 1 quality pitchers that were available much later than their counterparts Santana, Peavy, Webb, and Sabathia. Kazmir has 7 wins and 75 strikeouts in an abbreviated season. He's looked a little more human than he did in May, but nonetheless has blown away opponents as Tampa has romped through series after series with division leaders. If you believe in Tampa, you have to believe Kazmir will be one of baseball's top pitchers at season's end. ESPN ADP = 108.6

Starter: Tim Lincecum, SF

With the CC Sabathia trade, Lincecum lost his title as National League strikeout leader (by one K), but make no mistake, the young Giant hurler is an elite fantasy option. Fun fact of the day: pitchers drafted around him include Francisco Liriano (minors), Rich Hill (minors), and Brett Myers (oblivion). Lincecum has somehow managed to win 10 games so far, and I suspect he could win another 10 if the Giants don't wear his arm down with too many innings. Lincecum has provided stellar performance from a point in the draft where little else has panned out. ESPN ADP = 127.1

Starter: Ben Sheets, MIL

With Sheets, it's never been a question of talent. He's always had good stuff and the Brewers have always counted on him to be an ace. He's one of those guys, however, who constantly seems to be spending time on the DL. Thus far in 2008, however, Sheets has avoided the dreaded disabled list and taken his place as one of baseball's elite pitchers. His 3 complete games and WHIP of 1.11 are outstanding, and he and Sabathia will be be tough to beat in a short series if Milwaukee can get its act together and make the playoffs. ESPN ADP = 150.0

Starter: Zack Greinke, KC

When it comes to late-round value, Zack Greinke has provided as much as anyone. He has won 7 games for Kansas City, striking out 96 and WHIP-ing 1.27 (Sorry, I'm laughing at myself and can't stop to edit that nonsensical phrase). He's no fantasy ace, but this is supposed to be a real team, and among guys you could get with your last pick, he's been pretty good. As long as innings don't become an issue, the Royals young star should be a solid option for the rest of the season. ESPN ADP = 222.1

Now, if you'd like to pick fights with me, I will pause for a moment to acknowledge a few pitchers that were not drafted but have been stellar. These names include Edison Volquez, Cliff Lee, Justin Duscherer, and John Danks. I don't think it would've been reasonable for me to advocate drafting any of the three, but they could easily be part of any fantasy All-Star team. 

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez, LAA

When constructing a team, you have to use your top picks somewhere. In the first half, K-Rod has certainly exceeded expectations, with a major league record 35 saves. I'm not disagreeing with Zach's recent Mythbusters, because I don't think you should necessarily pay big for a closer. But on a first half All-Star team, you have to include a guy who has performed as well as K-Rod. He's certainly outdone Putz, Papelbon, and Nathan so far. Hopefully, the LA closer can keep it up for the second half. ESPN ADP = 56.5

Closer: Joakim Soria, KC

The Royals All-Star selection certainly belongs on this list, with his 23 saves and 1.62 ERA. He's only blown two saves this year, and it seemed like he was getting a save a day in June. His 44 strikeouts are right in line with Papelbon, which is something you love to see from your closers but don't necessarily expect from mid-round picks. Soria has been outstanding so far - keep your fingers crossed that he remains a Royal for the rest of 2008. ESPN ADP = 143.2

Closer: Kerry Wood, CHC

The only pitcher not named Roger Clemens to strikeout 20 batters in a game has made a seamless transition to closer. As his draft position indicates, this was not expected, but for those that took the risk Wood has provided great reward. He has struck out 54, but more importantly, he has not shown signs of the injuries that derailed his career. The former 200-strikeout starter has found his niche, and should be counted on as a solid source of saves for the rest of the season and beyond. ESPN ADP = 185.8

As far as the names left off the list, well - I couldn't advocate Brandon Webb because his ADP was 29.9 and Berkman's was 30.0. There's no way you could've drafted both. I excluded CC Sabathia because his April ERA was 7.76. He'll probably be a second-half All-Star because of the move to the NL, but only time will tell. Roy Halladay and Rich Harden are also casualties of good hitters with similar ADPs. For as good as they've been, I think I have constructed a staff that is outstanding, and with the rewards provided by spot starting, you have to look to hitting first. Who do you think I should've included?

The Day in Review

I really don't know what to say about what is going on in the NL Central. Right now the division has three teams with fifty wins, while no other team in the NL has more than 48. I have to say I'm suspicious of Harden's health, because the deal today seemed to come too quickly and too easily, though as a Cubs fan you have to trust the scouts. Harden immediately sees an upgrade in value (though for our purposes he still heads the second tier, rather than moving into the first), while Sean Gallagher also has more appeal. As a side note, I love the future of the A's pitching, with Eveland, Smith, Gallagher, and Gio Gonzalez. It will very quickly be the class of the AL.

Injury News:

• Dustin McGowan will undergo an MRI on his shoulder, and if he has been pitching through injury, it would explain his relative struggles. I'm rooting for a healthier second half that pays dividends for owners.
• Erik Bedard won't pitch until after the break, so he will probably go on the DL. His trade value is at a low and I doubt the M's can move him.
• Ryan Church is on the DL, though he probably shouldn't've been owned.
• Bobby Jenks will hit the DL as a precautionary move. As I once pointed out, the DL isn't so bad right before the All Star Break.

Notable Performances:

• Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick, great-story OFs of the other NL Central competitor, led the Cards over Cole Hamels, who struck out eight.
• Miguel Cabrera homered twice today. Will he be second round material next season?
• Lance Berkman walked four times, and the fact that he's still seeing the ball that well suggests he will continue his success post break.
• Pete will be happy that Brandon Webb had a good start, giving up no runs on six hits, with six strikeouts over six innings. I don't mean to suggest he's sold his soul to...
• CC Sabathia looked shaky, but many analysts predicted much worse given his fairing of pressure. He walked five, but only gave up two earned runs while striking out five over six innings. 
• Justin Duchscherer two-hit shutout the Mariners, bring his ERA down to 1.78. Maybe he will be the longterm completion of the rotation I laid out earlier?
• If you're rooting for your team to trade for Randy Wolf, I hope your team's scouts look at the 6.66 road ERA not the seven K's in 7 innings of one run ball today.

One more random thought; the song featured on the All Star Game commercials is "Lazy Eye" by the Silver Sun Pickups, and is one of my favorite. That's what you need to know about the day.

Fantasy All-Star Team: The Hitters

Taking some inspiration from Major League Baseball, I'm here to construct a fantasy all-star team. This team is very draftable... I'm building it using ADPs, so it's totally reasonable that you could've picked every player on this team. I'll give you my rationale for each pick as we go through, position-by-position, the lineup.

Catcher: Geovany Soto, CHC 

I don't think there's any question that Soto has been fantasy's best value at catcher, with a .902 OPS, .289 average and 15 HR. Brian McCann has comparable numbers, Joe Mauer a significantly better average, and Russell Martin the bonus 9 steals, but each went so much earlier they off-set the gains. ESPN ADP = 186.0

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, SD

He was fantasy's best-kept secret in 2007, going 30/100/101 with a .282 average. This year, his average sits at .281, but he already has 22 HR and 70 RBI. While Ryan Howard sits near the Menoza line, Albert Pujols battles injury, and Prince Fielder struggles to drive in runs, Gonzalez continues to produce like a first-round pick. Honorable mention goes to Derrek Lee, who has a higher average but lesser power numbers and was taken higher. ESPN ADP = 70.6

Second Base: Ian Kinsler, TEX

Who would've thought this would be my most difficult position so far? I am honestly torn between Kinsler, Dan Uggla, and Chase Utley. Because of my next pick, I've eliminated Utley, but Uggla and Kinsler have both provided such stellar value. The Ranger's 23 steals, however, make him the choice. His hit streak has his average up to .338, and he has 14 HR, 23 SB, and 80 runs scored! ESPN ADP = 77.0

Third Base: Chipper Jones, ATL

I flirted with giving this title to a couple of others, but the Braves vet has been simply outstanding so far in 2008. The average (down to .384 as of 7/8) gets the publicity, but the 18 HR, 50 RBI, and 54 R, minus games missed for that quad injury, put him on pace for an easy 35/100/100 season. With Jones, it's always been a question of health, and we'll see if he can stave off injury for the rest of the year to be the best at season's end. ESPN ADP = 54.6

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez, FLA

I have to choose someone from the first round. Whether due to injury (A-Rod, J-Roll) or underperformance (Santana, Cabrera, Wright), most of the first round has struggled so far. Utley and H-Ram have been the exceptions. The Marlin shortstop is already 20/20 and his average sits at .302. Those numbers are right in line with expectations, and that, combined with the lack of depth at SS, makes him my choice. ESPN ADP = 2.6

Outfield: Grady Sizemore, CLE; Josh Hamilton, TEX; Nate McLouth, PIT

All three have been producers in all five categories, which makes them extremely valuable. Sizemore's .269 average may be a little disappointing to his owners, but being on pace for 40/40/100/100 is just awesome. And don't worry about his second-half, because Grady's BABIP is still way low. I can't say enough good things about Josh Hamilton. I think the ridiculous 85 first-half RBIs speak for themselves. He slowed a little in June, but has been as consistent overall as any player in fantasy. McLouth, finally, had a slow June but still makes it on to this team because of his five-category production. 20/20 is a near-certainty and 30/20 or 25/25 are not out of the question at all. Pittsburgh finally gave him his shot and he's not willing to let go. ESPN ADP = Sizemore 18.1, Hamilton 111.9, McLouth 192.9

Utility: Lance Berkman, HOU

Okay, I confess to some bias against Berkman because I don't own him in any formats. And I was actually thinking about leaving him off the team because he and Brandon Webb were taken back-to-back. But Berkman's numbers are so good that I can't justify taking Webb over him. .348/22/70/74/12... translated over a full season, even if he slumps, you have a guy who hits .333 with 40 HR, 120 runs and RBI, and 20 steals. ESPN ADP = 30.0

I will have pitchers published tomorrow - I have some names in mind, and will run the numbers to make sure I'm not forgetting anyone. Let me know where you think I messed up, but remember, this team has to be draftable (hence I must exclude Webb by including Berkman). 

Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

Sorry for the delay on this, as it is partially my fault. Eric Stashin of RotoProfessor, who you should remember from our post co-op during the preseason (he wrote the "Ask the Experts" threads, which were great), had a little difficulty eliciting responses. I speak for most baseball bloggers when I admit that the All-Star Break is a relief to more than just the players. But on to this edition's question...

What do you think the biggest mistake fantasy owners make when handling their pitcher's throughout the season.

You can find everyone's answers here. As always, I encourage you to respond with your own thoughts. And on that note, I am boycotting a position analysis until someone admits which position they would like to hear first. It's a lot of work, and I feel entitled to whine about how we don't get enough apprecia--I mean comments.

The Day in Review

I don't mind when spot starters really work out well, like tonight.

Injury News

• Nothing big. Jeff Francoeur is back from AA ball. David Ortiz took batting practice. I'm really stretching for anything here.

Notable Performances

• Hiroki Kuroda wins this award, hands down, with seven perfect innings before a Mark Teixeira double to lead off the eighth. He finished the night with a one-hit, six-strikeout complete game.
• Matt Garza was decent against KC, giving up 3 earned in 6 2/3. Carlos Pena homered, he's been really hot since I grabbed him as a free agent (haha!).
• Dana Eveland grabbed a win but had no strikeouts as Oakland defeated Seattle.
• David Wright homered and drove in four, which was just enough to get past homers by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell as the Mets beat Philly. 
• Torii Hunter's 2 homers - and another by Vlad - were enough to net Ervin Santana his tenth victory, and K-Rod his 35th save.

From the highlights I saw, although today was a homer-filled day, the defense was most impressive. The Dodgers had two stellar plays to keep Kuroda's perfect game going, and Kevin Youkilis made a couple by himself in Boston. Worth checking out. Anyway, that's what you need to know about the day.

Strategic Spot Starting: Week Edition

I have been helping out with a blog for my "real" job, so I'm a bit swamped and haven't been able to post position rankings. I have done most of the work for all the infield positions, so I'll leave it to you guys when it comes to which position to start with. I'd prefer to do a "Middle Infield" or a "Corner Infield" week, so what's your pick? In the meantime, lets look at some spot starters...

Monday: I'm going to assume that Matt Garza is now owned by all, but if not please add him against the Royals. Dana Eveland looks solid pitching at SafeCo, and is one of my favorite spot starters. With a 3-4 punch of switch hitters, Atlanta isn't weak against either a LHP or a RHP, though I don't mind starting Hiroki Kuroda at home against them, especially after his brilliant return from the DL last start. San Diego is weaker against lefty, so the righty Ricky Nolasco is a shaky start, though better than most with Petco behind him. If you didn't notice, I've started listing players in order of their "startability"

Tuesday: Once again, I'll start with a name that should be owned: Jair Jurrjens. His start against the Dodgers should be a good one as they struggle with righties. Possibly better, but in the long run not as worthy of owning, is Adam Miller against the Padres. Jose Contreras might also be owned, but has good career numbers against Kansas City, who also struggle with RHPs. Manny Parra probably won't get his scheduled start tomorrow due to the introduction of C.C. Sabathia, though if he faces Colorado at home ever, he should be owned.

Wendesday: Seattle is awful against righties, but they will face one in Joe Blanton, who might find himself traded with a couple hot starts. Scott Olsen is the third fish to be profiled, due primarily to the upside of pitching in San Diego, against a team team he's had success against. I'm unsure on Micah Owings and Garrett Olsen, who on paper seem to have good starts but there are question marks (bad career numbers for both, plus Owings pitched in relief since his last start, which can disrupt rhythm). 

Thursday: Kevin Slowey shut down the Tigers last time they faced, though I'd temper expectations for too similar of a performance. Darrell Rasner was my spot starter of the edition last time he faced the Pirates, but blew it with a seven runs in five innings implosion. If you need a starter though, I just can't see the Pirates pulling that off again. While Eveland profiles well against Seattle, Greg Smith as a southpaw might not have such luck. 

The Day in Review

I guess the Cubs win today dulls the pain of Kerry Wood's blown save enough for me to get back up and start posting again. Still, it makes you wonder what could have been, as a complete sweep would have probably retired the Cards. I know it's only early July, but with C.C. Sabathia moving to the Brewers its looking like the NL Central race will feature a different contender.

Injury News:

• Erik Bedard might hit the DL, but he is at least missing a start. The oft-injured "ace" will probably be sought after, and probably be a disappointment. 

Notable Performances:

• Brian Roberts had a homer and two steals, and has finally started to play well. If you want a boost to his fantasy value, root for a trade to either Chicago team.
• Carlos Beltran also homered and stole two, while Jose Reyes picked up three hits and two steals in a game seeing O. Perez get back on track.
• I feel like I'm saying this too often, but J.J. Hardy homered twice, bringing his total to twelve on the year. 
• Randy Johnson struck out ten, giving up only one run in 6.1 innings. It was even at home, where he had been terrible, so its an encouraging sign. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

So the New York Post has apparently given us an early look at the All-Star Game. Cliff Lee will take on Brandon Webb, Mariano Rivera will pitch the last inning for the AL, and as always there will be plenty of Red Sox and Yankees sharing the diamond.

Injury News

• Tom Gorzelanny was demoted to Triple-A today. I mention this only because I am from Pittsburgh and his struggles (as well as Ian Snell's) would be painful to me if I took the Pirates seriously.
• Tulo is back on the DL - he hurt his hand in some act of frustration. Now it's Colorado who's frustrated with their sparkplug.
• Roy Oswalt will miss another start. It's looking like his hip injury will send him to the DL. 

Notable Performances

• Ryan Howard hit his 23rd homer, driving in 3 to bring his season total to 76. Remember when it looked like he could be a bust this year? He's approaching Hamiltonian territory in terms of driving in runs.
• Paul Maholm has put together a run of decent starts for Pittsburgh and is approaching own-ability (small sample size, but his career numbers improve after the break). Today's performance - 8 innings, 1 earned, 4 hits, 6 K's. No decision. Man, do I hate the Pirates sometimes.
• The ridiculously hot Ian Kinsler hit a HR as part of a 2-for-3 day. 
• Colorado could only manage 12 runs today. Matt Holliday led the way with 4 RBI, including a 3-run HR. Where will he be in August? Mixed reports, some saying he'll stay, some saying he'll go.
• John Lackey finally had a bad outing. Even though it came against Toronto, which is kind of sad, don't panic. The Angels ace will be fine.

There's a lot of personal anger in there, which is surprising because I'm not Zach. He's having a tough day with the Kerry Wood blown save and all. Oh well. That's what you need to know about the day.

Mythbusters: Paying For Closers

You've heard it, and so have we. The perennial advice of every draft strategy article campaigns against the early drafting of closers. "Just don't do it," they warn, "you'll regret it for the rest of your life." This may be a little extreme, but if you read those articles, you'll realize that its pretty close to reality. And if you read our articles, you'll realize we dislike this strategy. In Rotonomics preseason analysis, we recommended drafting upwards of five closers, building an early lead in saves, and selling high on as many as you can spare once teams get prematurely desperate for saves. So who was right in their suggestion? Enter Rotonomics vs. The Fantasy Baseball World...

So how shall we look at this myth? Well, since I'm poor I can't do what I had wanted to do, which is to compare end season Yahoo! rankings in 2007 with preseason MockDraftCentral ADP (included only in the premium membership) for the year. Instead, we will have to settle for the same strategy, applied during the current 2008 season. I know, you're probably bummed settling for more relevant information far more statistically volatile.

So looking at it by Tier, the ADP had the first tier of Papelbon, Putz, Rodriguez, and Nathan with an average of 51. Obviously, Putz has been a complete bust thus far, so lets consider the first tier with a bust rate of 25%. The average current rankings of these players is one round higher, at 61. Not one of the four players beat their draft pick, suggesting they were all overrated.

What about the rest of the draft board? Looking at the middle tiers (all but the last) it gets a bit more interesting. The ADP of the middle tiers was about 88, but their average performance was 116, more than two rounds higher. I can't even pinpoint a definitive bust, though Jose Valverde, Huston Street, and Trevor Hoffman all painfully underperformed their draft position. The only player to beat their draft position was Mariano Rivera.

Historically, how have closers been by year's end? Well, in 2007, only two closers should have gone in the first four round (with year end rank below 48), while two more would have gone in the round after that. In 2006, five closers should have gone in those first four rounds, while three more would have gone in the fifth. In other words, the fourth round is fine value for the best closers, provided you choose the right ones. So far it's not looking that way this year, but I expect the rankings will come around.

Finally, how bout those bottom tier closers? Of the seventeen closers not already taken, six have been complete busts, either spending much of the year injured or outright losing their job. The rest? Most (64%) have beat out their draft position, some by as many as three rounds, with Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, and Troy Percival being some of the best buys. And in place of many of those busts, quality arms have risen to the occasion to be picked off of the waiver wire, such as Jon Rauch, Brandon Morrow, and Salomon Torres.

So the verdict? You are only overpaying for saves if you pick a player who busts. Unfortunately, this is usually the result of an unpredictable injury, as is the case with J.J. Putz this season. But at a bust rate of 25%, its the same as top round players, so bust rate shouldn't be the concern. However, I still don't advise taking top tier closers. Because it is such a small tier, and the demand is so high, the "price" is inflated. It isn't until the bottom tier where the best value can be had. No scarcity means every manager is content just waiting for a late round run, and so grabbing those guys comes at pretty much no cost (ironically, starting a closer run where almost every pick in the round is a closer means you got your guy while that position player you hoped would come around has a very good chance of doing just that). And if you look at the numbers, guys like Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood are easy targets. Plus you can always fall back on the waiver wire or trading for someone's surplus.

The Day in Review

Hey all, hope you had a great Fourth! Here's the news from the baseball world if you didn't get to enjoy any games.

Injury News

• There are some names, but no big ones. Johnny Damon has a bum shoulder and could hit the DL. The Rockies just put Todd Helton on the DL. And Jeff Francoeur has been sent to Double-A to try to break out of a slump - to me, this is not too different from a DL stint for him.

Notable Performances

• Boy, what an offensive explosion in Colorado. Matt Holliday had two HR, one of which was a grand slam, to pace last year's World Series loser.
• Andre Ethier's 3-RBI game led the Dodgers, Delmon Young had 4 RBI for Minnesota, Adam Jones drove in a couple for Baltimore, and Carlos Pena drove in 5 for Tampa as six teams scored double digits. 
• Carlos Zambrano is back, and he struck out five Cardinals in six innings for a victory. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

I thought I'd start with a topic of interest - C.C. Sabathia rumors. My personal feelings for where he will end up look like this: Dodgers (most likely), Brewers, Rays, Cubs. The Dodgers were interested in Santana in the offseason, and have to look at the N.L. West as anyone's for the taking. The Brewers are conservative with their talent, smartly opting to hold onto starting pitching that was once considered a surplus, but know that a complement to Sheets is a necessity. The Rays should make the deal, but I believe they recognize that their system is working and that major rental acquisitions runs counter to that. The Cubs will pay everything, but only if these teams fail to pay first. As a Sabathia owner, you should root for him to end up in L.A. (but if you are a true baseball fan, a team could better use the pitcher to end a 100 year drought).

Injury News:

• Rafael Furcal needed back surgery after a setback and will be out until around September. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets shut down for the season, though I'm not sure the pending free agent would be happy with that plan.
• Luis Castillo hit the DL, which means very little right now since everyone will be out a week for the All Star Break.

Notable Performances:

• After I touted him in our closer rankings, Salomon Torres contribute to Arizona's comeback six run ninth. Two of those runs were earned against the current closer, while Gagne pitched a perfect eighth.
• Brandon Webb gave up the five runs that the Diamondbacks waited until the last moment to overcome. He struck out six, which is encouraging, and is worth trying to buy.
• Jon Lester threw a complete game shutout against the Yankees. Since the beginning of May, he's thrown all but one quality start, while walking no more than three batters (and only three batters in all of June combined). I've added him to our pitcher rankings.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Midseason Rankings: Closers

On to the next position, and I'll be honest, this was the most challenging I've drafted so far. Closers so frequently lose their jobs to poor performance or injury that projecting them usually proves impossible; just ask anyone who paid dearly for J.J. Putz. Because this isn't an easy task, please comment where you see fit (last rankings' fifteen posts was a record for our site, but one we hope to break regularly).

Tier One:

• Jonathon Papelbon
• Francisco Rodriguez
• Joe Nathan
• Mariano Rivera

Truth is, I don't trust Rivera in that tier, but his numbers are just insane. Since 2003, he hasn't had an ERA above 2.00 save but one year. Of course, since that year was last, many of us "experts" had written him off. While K-Rod has ten more saves than Papelbon, the latter has 10 more strikeouts in fewer innings, while posting significantly better WHIP and K/BB numbers. In fact, I'm more confident that Papelbon will be the better bet going forward than I am in Nathan providing more value than Rivera.

Tier Two:

• Brad Lidge
• Kerry Wood
• Billy Wagner
• Joakim Soria

These are the names we recommended targeting on draft day, and we did not fail you (picking sleeper closers is probably my sixth sense). I'm a Cubs fan so it seems wrong not having Kerry Wood at the top of this list, because he will probably get more saves than the other three names. All these teams look to be buyers at the break with the exception of the Royals, who don't plan on giving up the kind of impact bat that has been keeping them in games.

Tier Three:

• Takashi Saito
• Bobby Jenks

Shortest tier probably ever. While Saito has only blown three saves, he has only been handed 16 save opportunities (you do the math). Jenks isn't a strikeout machine, but has solid peripherals and is on a pretty good team. Since its strikeouts that make a fantasy closer elite, and since you depend on saves from this position alone, these guys don't make tier two, but have fewer question marks than tier four.

Tier Four:

• Francisco Cordero
• Jason Isringhausen
• Huston Street
• Salomon Torres
• B. J. Ryan
• Kevin Gregg
• Jon Rauch
• Jose Valverde
• Mike Gonzalez

Cordero almost makes tier three, but the Reds are going to be sellers and that offense could struggle without Dunn and Griffey, even if both have been underperforming. After Isringhausen broke down (insert any adverb), he has been lights out in June on a solid team. Torres and Gonzalez will have to perform to hold their jobs, but are the better options over their injury-prone counterparts and have been solid thus far (Torres's ERA since taking over? A tad over 1.50, but his K's haven't been there). Street is on a good team that will hand him opportunities, which he will gladly blow until the A's trade him, a fate much more likely for Jon Rauch.

Tier Five:

• Brandon Morrow
• George Sherrill
• Troy Percival
• Trevor Hoffman
• Brian Wilson
• Brian Fuentes
• Todd Jones
• Brandon Lyon
• C. J. Wilson
• Damaso Marte
• Joe Borowski

Here's how I look at these guys... Poor Performance: Hoffman, Wilson, Jones, Lyon, Wilson, Borowski (with Zumaya, Pena, and Betancourt/Kobayashi ready to step in for some). Likely Traded: Sherrill, Fuentes, Marte. Injury Concerns: Percival. Morrow is the only guy not tainted on this list, but at some point the M's have to hand the job back to Putz; I think it will be later than you'd expect.

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

Starting the fourth of July, this will be the last spot starting article until after the All Star Break. As the Rays try to hold onto a win over the Red Sox, capping a three game sweep of the defending champions, one must wonder what the future holds. At the very least, we should be able to designate most teams as buyers or sellers for the deadline, and the rumors should start flying. I guess I shouldn't get ahead of myself...

Friday: Jonathon Sanchez shouldn't be owned in your league, but if he is his matchup against Joe Torre's Dodgers should be a pretty one. On the other side of that matchup is Derek Lowe, who also shouldn't be available was was when I checked my shallowest league. To be sure, I promptly added him. That's it for the kickoff of the weekend, as everyone else is a huge risk.

Saturday: I like Kevin Slowey, but as a righty his matchup vs. Cleveland is iffy. In very deep leagues, Eric Hurley should complement Slowey as pitchers with great names. Also a righty, Hurley should succeed against Baltimore, though I don't particularly trust young pitchers on the road. Its really not a great weekend for spot starting.

Sunday: Aaron Cook is here weekly, because he's only worth having if he's going to win, which he does way more frequently than his skill set would predict. I don't think he'll beat Florida at home, because they crush the ball against righties and the box score could look more like a gas bill. Jesse Litsch against the Angels is nice, especially since they can't seem to hit the ball while playing at home. Eric Stults, the new edition of the Dodgers rotation, will face San Francisco, where he's worth a look. Jeff Suppan of the BrewCrew faces the Pirates, so he should get the win.

The Day in Review

Well guys, it's a sad day in Pittsburgh, as Marian Hossa spurned the Pens for the team that just beat them in the Cup Finals. I, for one, am angry. 

I'm sorry for the consistent hockey talk. You have to understand that the Pirates are so bad, I can't focus on them for more than 35 seconds without fits of anger. On to the rest of baseball...

Injury News

• Well, actually, I'm starting in Pittsburgh. Closer Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with bursitis in his right shoulder. Is this why he's been pitching poorly lately, or because? I'm always suspicious. Either way, he's out 8 weeks. Damaso Marte is the recommended add if you need saves, but he's a risk to be dealt, so monitor the situation. 
• Troy Percival officially hit the Tampa DL. Dan Wheeler could grab some cheap saves while he's out.
• Jeff Francis is on the DL for Colorado. He hasn't been nearly as effective this year as he was in 2007, and maybe this shoulder inflammation has something to do with it.

Notable Performances

• The Yankees put up 18(!) on Texas. Jason Giambi had a HR and drove in 6, while A-Rod had a homer, scored 4, and drove in 3. Josh Hamilton drove in 2 for Texas to bring his RBI total to 82.
• Xavier Nady and Jay Bruce each had two homers, but Pittsburgh bested Cincinnati. 
• Tampa came back against Boston on the strength of Evan Longoria's 3-hit, 3-RBI night.
• Daniel Cabrera threw his second complete game against Kansas City this season, getting the win but striking out only two. He didn't have a great June, but of course his talent level is maddening.
• Garrett Atkins homered and drove in 4 for Colorado today. 

So I know it's early, I'll update based on late games if needed. The only other news is Clayton Kershaw was sent down by LA. We'll see when he re-surfaces next. Finally, keep an eye on the site, as we should have closer rankings up in the near future. Closers are pretty tough to rank, so we'll look for all the input we can get.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Trendspotting: Adam LaRoche, Justin Morneau

Okay, okay. I know this isn't groundbreaking news, but it's nearly the All-Star Break, so it's time to bring up a couple names with dramatic first/second half splits. These two first basemen top the charts - Morneau is the classic first-half player, while LaRoche is the ultimate second-half guy. Let's talk for a moment about each in 2008.

Adam LaRoche: The Pirate first baseman has finally found his stroke. As the Bucco announcers pointed out when he hit a scorcher down the first base-line that was just fair... "In April and May, those [types of hits] were going foul. Now that it's July, they are fair balls that drive in runs." Post-Break numbers, career: .893 OPS (compare to .756 in the first half), .296 average (.249 first half), and 46 HR (48 first half in 120 more games!!). Granted, he shouldn't take the place of an elite player on your roster. But if you're struggling to recover from a David Ortiz injury, or drafting Travis Hafner or Paul Konerko, you ought to take a chance on LaRoche. He's only owned in 14.4% of ESPN standard leagues - I'm sorry, but that's just silly. Grab him while you still can, and if you have an elite, look to make a move to upgrade a weakness (try to pick up Jake Peavy or Johan Santana to give yourself an ace for the stretch run, if their owners are looking to trade their underperforming studs). 

Justin Morneau: I'd love to say something new about Morneau, like "this is the year he's going to have a killer second half, so you should grab him from the nervous owner who wants to deal him," but the numbers unfortunately do not support such a sentiment. For those unfamiliar with his splits, Morneau's career OPS drops nearly a hundred points and his batting average drops 25 points after the break. His homers generally decrease as well, although he hasn't been hitting the ball out of the ballpark as well this year. I can pretty much guarantee that he'll have a similar letdown this season, not because of his past, but because his BABIP this year is 50 points above his career average (.345, as compared to a .296 career figure). His numbers so far, in a mediocre year, have been as much about good luck as anything else. This just isn't the year for the Minnesota slugger, and if you have him, I'd advise you to move him for whatever you can.

The Day in Review

How bout those Rays? Now up two and a half games over Boston, I might have to agree with Skip Bayliss that they may complete the sweep. And I hate agreeing with Skip, he projected John Maine as the ace of the Mets after the Santana acquisition. I guess if you make really controversial remarks, and get the occasional correct, you can run ESPN talk shows?

Injury News:

• Felix Hernandez didn't expect to miss a single start, but now sits on the DL with a sprained ankle. Rest off for slight injury like this is normally beneficial to overall performance.
• Troy Percival will probably hit the DL after arguing to pitch through a hamstring issue. 
• Chipper Jones won't hit the DL, and instead batted today, going 1-3 which of course lowers his batting average.
• Brett Myers, who it felt wrong not ranking (along with Rich Hill, both of which I loved heading into the season) accepted a minor league assignment and won't be around for awhile.

Notable Performances:

• Aaron Cook shut out the Padres, requiring only 79 pitches to get through the complete game. It is because of this efficiency that he'd be such an asset to a contender, but the Rockies won't move him.
• Ian Kinsler stole three bases, bringing his total to 23. I think he'll steal 40 bags this season.
• Hanley Ramirez hit his twentieth homerun and accumulated five ribbies on the night.
• Russell Martin, who as a catcher is supposed to be slowing down around now, hit his ninth homer and stole his eighth base, going 3-5 on the night.
• J.J. Hardy has two homeruns on the night, while Cory Hart has 2 steals. The Diamondbacks are just flailing.
• Randy Johnson was tagged for seven runs and no longer has fantasy relevance as far as I'm concerned.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Wisdom of Crowds: WE WANT YOUR COMMENTS

So, a couple of weeks ago, I wrote this article trying to explain the modern economic idea of the wisdom of crowds. I don't know how well I did, but in brief, here's what I was getting at:

A large group of people is consistently smarter than any of its individual members. This phenomenon occurs because everyone has information, some public and some private, some good and some bad. When you get a large enough group of people (and one that's fairly diverse - this is extremely important), everyone's bad information begins to cancel out, and you are left with only the good information. Think of it like this. I am a teacher having a jelly-bean counting contest. The people who under-guess and the people who over-guess even each other out, so if I add up everyone's guesses and take an average, it will be closer than the guess of any individual, including the kid who knows the volume of the can and the size of each jelly bean and builds a spatial model. This may seem intuitive, it may not; either way, it works consistently in the real world. Check it out if you don't believe me.

Anyway, I write that trying to encourage you to comment, especially now that we are trying to make a good set of positional rankings. Why? As smart as Zach and I are (we're the nerds measuring the volume of the jelly-bean jar), we only know so much. You, dear readers, have information that can help us. More importantly, it will help every other reader of this blog, who will in turn help you. Brandon Funston's Big Board is fun, but it's only one man's opinion. We're trying to make a board that takes every man's thoughts, because we believe such a board will give a better indication of who will do what for the rest of the season. If you'd like (let us know by commenting), we will figure out a way to track our performances against Funston's, to test the theory that many men are smarter than one.

Also, I mentioned that diversity was very important. I want to close by saying that, in my jelly bean example, the only reason a group of people gets an accurate guess is because some people under-guess while others over-guess. It is because of differing opinions that we get an accurate result. So if you disagree - if you're the one person who expects Justin Verlander to strike out 120 batters the rest of the year - say it! Tell us why! As much as we love people telling us we're right, it won't change our rankings at all. So tell us when we're wrong, have a little back-and-forth (we may have some information you didn't think about, as we saw with Pedro Martinez), or you may have a thought we didn't. Just remember, it's you that makes our rankings better for everyone by sharing your opinion with us. Keep the comments rolling and good luck as we start the second half.