The Real Deal?
Each and every week, I will perform a category by category review of five players who have drastically exceeded expectations this season in the hopes of determining if their success is legitimate or a fluke.
The five players for this week are Evan Longoria, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, Gavin Floyd and John Danks.
Evan Longoria
HR: Longoria was expected to be a good power prospect, but did anyone really expect he'd hit a dinger in 5.69% of his ABs? His .256 ISO is over 100 points better than the average .153. The slugging percentage comes in at .537, just 3 points over what he slugged in his minor league career. The dude is a legit slugger.
R: The Rays are #4 in the AL at scoring runs, averaging 4.83 runs per game. Longoria has typically hit 5th in the order, with Cliff Floyd, Dioner Navarro, Gabe Gross and Eric Hinske in the mix behind him. He's not scoring runs at a Kinslerian level, but he's no slouch either.
RBI: Longoria is typically hitting behind B.J. Upton [.391 OBP] and Carlos Pena [.339], which has resulted in 52 RBI so far. Pena has a career .349 OBP, so its feasible that Longoria could get more RBI opportunities if Pena raises his OBP towards his career average.
SB: With 6 steals already, Longoria has far eclipsed the 4 bases he swiped in the minors in 2006 and 2007. Tampa Bay leads the AL with 98 SBs, a testament to both the speed of the Rays and the philosophy of Joe Maddon. Double digits certainly seems feasible for Longoria, providing a boost to his fantasy value.
AVG: The .313 BABIP isn't too obscene for his .281 average. Although his 74.73% contact rate isn't the greatest, he's really cut back on the strikeouts recently. He was a career .301 hitter in the minors, a mark he should come close to by season's end.
Conclusion: Ladies and Gentlemen, I hereby declare Evan Longoria as the Ryan Braun [minus 10 steals] of 2008.
Dan Uggla
HR: Uggla was always a good power source, but 23 dingers with a week before the All-Star break? Wow. The .331 ISO is obscene, as is the .620 slugging. He is 28 years old, so perhaps he's just hitting his stride. Regardless, 40 HR cetainly seems possible.
R: Ranking 3rd in the NL with 4.99 runs scored per game, the Marlins offense is surprsingly elite. Could you imagine if they still had Miguel Cabrera in the lineup? Uggla is typically hitting 5th in the order, with a decent cast backing him up.
RBI: With no truly elite OBP guys besides Han-Ram in the lineup, don't expect Uggla to put up Josh Hamilton RBI numbers. Regardless, he drives himself in a lot with 23 HRs. He's a pretty good source of RBI for his position, as expected.
SB: With 4 SB thus far, he should end up around his typical 6 by season's end.
AVG: Uggla's .341 BABIP is a big red flag. So is his 68.29% contact rate. Expect his batting average to plummet towards his .268 career average.
Conclusion: Even with a decrease in batting average, Uggla is going to massively exceed expectations for this season.
Mark DeRosa
HR: With 11 HRs already, DeRosa is nearing his career high of 13. His .174 ISO and .465 SLG are both respectable, but not obscene. He slugged .456 back in '06, so it's not like he was Juan Pierre in the power department in the past.
R: The Cubs have the best offense in the NL, averaging 5.34 runs per game. Even with DeRosa hitting 7th or 8th mostly, he'll still score a respectable amount of runs.
RBI: The Cubs' .359 team OBP is the best in the NL. Alfonso Soriano and Reed Johnson are the only guys in the lineup who aren't excellent sources of OBP. Although he won't be anything special, DeRosa certainly won't be a RBI liability.
SB: With 3 SBs thus far, DeRosa is marginally overachieving. Expect him to be around 5-6 by seasons end.
AVG: DeRosa hit .296 in '06 and .293 in '07, so his .292 in '08 isn't out of left field. The .338 BABIP is a bit of a red flag, though, as is the 77.08% contact rate. He should marginally decline in the batting average department.
Conclusion: Hitting in the Cubs' lineup is a good place to be. DeRosa should end up being a steal this season.
Gavin Floyd
W: The White Sox score an average of 4.80 runs per game, .21 better than the AL average. Floyd has been a beneficiary of that offense, logging 10 wins. His expected win stat would have him at 6.6 wins, so don't expect his luck to continue.
K: His 6.03 K/9 is a bit lower than his 7.14 career minor league K/9. I'd expect him to remain in the 6-6.5 range for the remainder of the season. He's not the greatest source for Ks.
ERA: Floyd has been significantly outpitching his peripherals. His 4.90 QERA is much higher than his actual 3.22 ERA. Don't bank on his luck to continue.
WHIP: The .218 BABIP is a big red flag, so expect the hits to drop eventually. The 3.30 BB/9 seems in line with what he's done over the course of his career.
Conclusion: With Floyd obviously benefitting from Lady Luck, this one screams fluke.
John Danks
W: With only 6 wins, Danks hasn't gotten as many wins as his performance has deserved. He should have around 8.6 Ws, so I'd expect an upturn in production in this category.
K: Danks struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors. At the big league level, he's settled in around the 7 mark, logging a 7.23 K/9. He's no Lincecum, but he's no slouch either.
ERA: Danks currently has a 2.52 ERA, one of the best marks in the AL. His peripherals suggest a 3.94 ERA would be in order, so expect regression here.
WHIP: Danks' .282 BABIP is right around his team's average, so he looks fine in the hits allowed department. His 2.61 BB/9 has been one of the reasons for his success. If he keeps his control, the 1.17 WHIP should continue.
Conclusion: Minus the expected regression in ERA, Danks appears to be legit.
The five players for this week are Evan Longoria, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, Gavin Floyd and John Danks.
Evan Longoria
HR: Longoria was expected to be a good power prospect, but did anyone really expect he'd hit a dinger in 5.69% of his ABs? His .256 ISO is over 100 points better than the average .153. The slugging percentage comes in at .537, just 3 points over what he slugged in his minor league career. The dude is a legit slugger.
R: The Rays are #4 in the AL at scoring runs, averaging 4.83 runs per game. Longoria has typically hit 5th in the order, with Cliff Floyd, Dioner Navarro, Gabe Gross and Eric Hinske in the mix behind him. He's not scoring runs at a Kinslerian level, but he's no slouch either.
RBI: Longoria is typically hitting behind B.J. Upton [.391 OBP] and Carlos Pena [.339], which has resulted in 52 RBI so far. Pena has a career .349 OBP, so its feasible that Longoria could get more RBI opportunities if Pena raises his OBP towards his career average.
SB: With 6 steals already, Longoria has far eclipsed the 4 bases he swiped in the minors in 2006 and 2007. Tampa Bay leads the AL with 98 SBs, a testament to both the speed of the Rays and the philosophy of Joe Maddon. Double digits certainly seems feasible for Longoria, providing a boost to his fantasy value.
AVG: The .313 BABIP isn't too obscene for his .281 average. Although his 74.73% contact rate isn't the greatest, he's really cut back on the strikeouts recently. He was a career .301 hitter in the minors, a mark he should come close to by season's end.
Conclusion: Ladies and Gentlemen, I hereby declare Evan Longoria as the Ryan Braun [minus 10 steals] of 2008.
Dan Uggla
HR: Uggla was always a good power source, but 23 dingers with a week before the All-Star break? Wow. The .331 ISO is obscene, as is the .620 slugging. He is 28 years old, so perhaps he's just hitting his stride. Regardless, 40 HR cetainly seems possible.
R: Ranking 3rd in the NL with 4.99 runs scored per game, the Marlins offense is surprsingly elite. Could you imagine if they still had Miguel Cabrera in the lineup? Uggla is typically hitting 5th in the order, with a decent cast backing him up.
RBI: With no truly elite OBP guys besides Han-Ram in the lineup, don't expect Uggla to put up Josh Hamilton RBI numbers. Regardless, he drives himself in a lot with 23 HRs. He's a pretty good source of RBI for his position, as expected.
SB: With 4 SB thus far, he should end up around his typical 6 by season's end.
AVG: Uggla's .341 BABIP is a big red flag. So is his 68.29% contact rate. Expect his batting average to plummet towards his .268 career average.
Conclusion: Even with a decrease in batting average, Uggla is going to massively exceed expectations for this season.
Mark DeRosa
HR: With 11 HRs already, DeRosa is nearing his career high of 13. His .174 ISO and .465 SLG are both respectable, but not obscene. He slugged .456 back in '06, so it's not like he was Juan Pierre in the power department in the past.
R: The Cubs have the best offense in the NL, averaging 5.34 runs per game. Even with DeRosa hitting 7th or 8th mostly, he'll still score a respectable amount of runs.
RBI: The Cubs' .359 team OBP is the best in the NL. Alfonso Soriano and Reed Johnson are the only guys in the lineup who aren't excellent sources of OBP. Although he won't be anything special, DeRosa certainly won't be a RBI liability.
SB: With 3 SBs thus far, DeRosa is marginally overachieving. Expect him to be around 5-6 by seasons end.
AVG: DeRosa hit .296 in '06 and .293 in '07, so his .292 in '08 isn't out of left field. The .338 BABIP is a bit of a red flag, though, as is the 77.08% contact rate. He should marginally decline in the batting average department.
Conclusion: Hitting in the Cubs' lineup is a good place to be. DeRosa should end up being a steal this season.
Gavin Floyd
W: The White Sox score an average of 4.80 runs per game, .21 better than the AL average. Floyd has been a beneficiary of that offense, logging 10 wins. His expected win stat would have him at 6.6 wins, so don't expect his luck to continue.
K: His 6.03 K/9 is a bit lower than his 7.14 career minor league K/9. I'd expect him to remain in the 6-6.5 range for the remainder of the season. He's not the greatest source for Ks.
ERA: Floyd has been significantly outpitching his peripherals. His 4.90 QERA is much higher than his actual 3.22 ERA. Don't bank on his luck to continue.
WHIP: The .218 BABIP is a big red flag, so expect the hits to drop eventually. The 3.30 BB/9 seems in line with what he's done over the course of his career.
Conclusion: With Floyd obviously benefitting from Lady Luck, this one screams fluke.
John Danks
W: With only 6 wins, Danks hasn't gotten as many wins as his performance has deserved. He should have around 8.6 Ws, so I'd expect an upturn in production in this category.
K: Danks struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors. At the big league level, he's settled in around the 7 mark, logging a 7.23 K/9. He's no Lincecum, but he's no slouch either.
ERA: Danks currently has a 2.52 ERA, one of the best marks in the AL. His peripherals suggest a 3.94 ERA would be in order, so expect regression here.
WHIP: Danks' .282 BABIP is right around his team's average, so he looks fine in the hits allowed department. His 2.61 BB/9 has been one of the reasons for his success. If he keeps his control, the 1.17 WHIP should continue.
Conclusion: Minus the expected regression in ERA, Danks appears to be legit.
