Each and every week, I will perform a category by category review of five players who have drastically exceeded expectations this season in the hopes of determining if their success is legitimate or a fluke.

The five players for this week are Jorge Cantu, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Chad Billingsley and Ricky Nolasco.

Jorge Cantu
HR: Cantu has been hitting a HR every 20.44 ABs, showing power he had back in 2005 when he hit a HR every 21.36 ABs. Just entering his age 26 season, Cantu is making 2006 and 2007 look like the fluke seasons.
R: The Marlins are 4th in the NL at scoring runs, and Cantu tends to hit 3rd in the lineup. Josh Willingham [.506 SLG] and Dan Uggla [.605] are backing him up in the lineup.
RBI: Having Han-Ram in the lineup does wonderful things for a player's RBI totals. Han-Ram gets on base at a .391 pace, while #2 hitter Jeremy Hermida is only getting on base at a .326 pace.
SB: Cantu has attempted to swipe a base five times this season, two more than his previous career high. He's succeeded three times, which isn't too shabby given his previous track record [career 43% success rate in the minors].
AVG: Cantu's .283 AVG is being done with a .298 BABIP, which is only .001 above the average for non-pitchers. He's not walking much [6%], but making good contact [82.34%]. He's not a stud in average, but he's a solid bet to keep up an average in the mid .280s.
Conclusion: There doesn't seem to be too much fluke here. He is what he is - not a gamechanger, but a useful resource who will continue to pay dividends for his fantasy owners.

Dustin Pedroia
HR: Pedroia's slugging percentage hasn't changed that much from 2007, up to .458 [+.016 from '07] in his age 24 season. Last year, he hit a HR every 65 ABs - this year, he's hitting one every 43.88 ABs.
R: As one of the spark plugs for the #2 ranked offense in the AL, Pedroia has scored the 8th most runs in MLB this season. He's getting on base at a .357 pace, down from his .380 mark in '07. Even without Big Papi, Pedroia still has Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell backing him up in the lineup.
RBI: Hitting 2nd in the lineup, Pedroia won't be an Uggla/Utley type of RBI source, but he's certainly holding his own with 47 RBI thus far [7th among 2B].
SB: Pedroia is running much more than anticipated, swiping 9 bases already. He should end up in the 15-20 range by season's end, a small but significant difference.
AVG: A .308 career hitter in the minor leagues, Pedroia has always been a great hitter. He's currently riding a .324 BABIP, which is a touch high. At the worst, he'll regress to the .290-.300 range.
Conclusion: With more HR and SB already than he had in '07, Pedroia has already exceeded expectations. While he probably won't push 20/20 this year, he's going to prove to be a bargain 5 category contributor.

Jason Bay
HR: With a HR every 17.95 AB, Bay is showing the power we saw in his '05 and '06 seasons, when he hit a HR every 17.45 AB. 2007 is looking like the anomaly in Bay's career.
R: The Pirates' offense has been strangely good, averaging 4.89 runs per game. Bay has been hitting mostly 3rd or 4th, with the overachieving Xavier Nady and others hitting behind him.
RBI: With Nate McLouth and Freddy Sanchez mostly hitting in front of him, Bay has shown decent RBI production, ranking 3rd on the Pirates. He'll flirt with triple digits, much like he did in '05 and '06.
SB: Although Bay is not likely to swipe 21 bases like he did in 2005, he's certainly showing that he's capable of double digits. Expect him to end up in the 10-12 range by season's end.
AVG: Bay is currently riding a .319 BABIP, which is 22 points higher than league average, but he does have a .329 BABIP for his career. His average could regress to the .270-.275 range, but he appears to be a safe bet for a .280-.285 AVG.
Conclusion: I don't think the Pirates' offense is this good, so I'd expect some regression in the team dependent stats. The subject of many trade rumors, Bay's situation may have to be revisited if he's dealt by the July 31st trade deadline.

Chad Billingsley
W: The pride of Defiance, Ohio has won 9 games thus far. That's merely one more than his expected wins stat states, so there's not too much to worry about here.
K: Currently sporting a 9.91 K/9, Billingsley has been absurd. Even if he regresses to the 8.63 K/9 he sported last season, he'll still be a fantasy asset in Ks.
ERA: With a 3.25 ERA thus far, he's right around the 3.31 he had last year. His peripherals indicate a 4.00 ERA would be appropriate, largely given his 3.87 BB/9. Expect slight regression in this category.
WHIP: Billingsley's .310 BABIP is right around league average, so his hits allowed are fairly legitimate. If he gets his walk rate down, he's capable of putting up a WHIP in the low 1.20's.
Conclusion: Just 23 years old, Billingsley is going to be a valuable fantasy asset for years to come. If he gets his walk rate under control, he could eventually become a fantasy ace.

Ricky Nolasco
W: Nolasco leads the Marlins pitching staff with 10 Ws thus far. Buyer beware, however - his expected wins stat says that he's only deserved 7.1 Ws. Don't expect the luck to continue.
K: His 6.79 K/9 seems to be accurate, as he sported a similar mark in 2006. He struck out a batter an inning in the minors, so it wouldn't surprise me if he increased his K rate eventually.
ERA: Currently sporting a 3.70 ERA, his peripherals indicate a 4.56 ERA would be more appropriate. His 27.55% GB rate is largely to blame - league average is 33.21%.
WHIP: Although he sports a great 2.31 BB/9, he's been a bit of a BABIP beneficiary, riding a .271 mark. Expect regression in that category that will send his 1.19 WHIP up into the mid-high 1.20's.
Conclusion: Nolasco appears to be outperforming his expectations, but don't expect that to last for too long.