The Real Deal?
Each and every week, I will perform a category by category review of five players who have drastically exceeded expectations this season in the hopes of determining if their success is legitimate or a fluke.
The five players for this week are Troy Glaus, Jhonny Peralta, Rick Ankiel, Hong-Chih Kuo and Mike Mussina.
Troy Glaus
HR: Glaus is hitting a HR once every 19.38 ABs, right around the 19.25 pace he had in an injury filled 2007. He's not hitting HRs as often as he did in '05 or '06, but he's at least staying healthy. Look for him to finish in the high 20's or low 30's.
R: Thanks to the play of Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols and Rick Ankiel, the Cardinals offense is surprisingly above-average. Scoring 4.78 runs per game, they're .28 runs above the league average. Glaus is hitting 5th without significant support behind him, so don't expect anything more than an average amount of runs scored.
RBI: Glaus ranks 13th in the National League in RBI, thanks in large part to hitting behind Ryan Ludwick [.370 OBP] and Albert Pujols [.472]. While the jury is still out on Ludwick, we all know Pujols will continue to provide Glaus with significant RBI opportunities.
SB: With only two steal attempts in the past 2 years, Glaus won't contribute much here.
AVG: For his career, Glaus has a .282 BABIP; this year, that mark sits at .299. If it regresses to his career average, Glaus' current .281 batting average could plummet to the high .260s. I wouldn't bet on him being a great source for batting average for the rest of the season.
Conclusion: Although regression should be expected in the batting average category, Glaus appears to be a solid bet to continue producing good numbers in the HR and RBI departments.
Jhonny Peralta
HR: Currently hitting a HR every 22.06 ABs, Peralta is flashing the best HR power from shortstops not named Hanley Ramirez. Entering his Age 26 season, it looks like Peralta is returning to the kind of power he showed back in '05.
R: The Tribe's offense has not been as advertised. Scoring just 4.57 runs per game, they're .05 runs per game worse than league average. Although he's bounced around, injuries to his teammates have put Peralta in the cleanup spot. There's not a ton of support behind him, but he's a much better source for runs as a cleanup hitter than he is as a 6 hitter.
RBI: Hitting cleanup, Peralta will likely be amongst the best shortstop sources for RBI. He's currently second in the category at his position, only trailing Michael Young by 2 RBI.
SB: With only a 38.89% success rate in 18 career attempts, Peralta isn't likely to push double digits. Expect a few more steals this season, if that.
AVG: Although his BABIP currently sits at .288, it sits at .320 for his career. I'd expect his current .263 average to rise marginally to the .270 range.
Conclusion: Peralta is good for what he was expected to be good for - an above average power source for his position. I'd expect him to continue to produce as he has, with a marginal improvement in batting average.
Rick Ankiel
HR: After hitting a HR every 15.64 ABs in his brief MLB stint in '07, Ankiel is currently hitting one every 14.73 ABs this year. His mark was at 13.13 in the minors, so he's clearly a legitimate source for dingers.
R: Although he's batted around in the lineup, Ankiel has been mostly hitting out of the cleanup spot. Troy Glaus has provided decent protection behind him. He's currently ranked in the top 25 of run scorers amongst outfielders, and he should continue to be around that level.
RBI: Everyone wishes they could hit behind Albert Pujols. Ankiel ranks around #20 for RBI by an outfielder, a decent mark that he should be able to keep up with.
SB: Ankiel isn't likely to be anything more than a guy who swipes a few bases each year. With 2 on the season, he's not likely to swipe too many more.
AVG: Not the greatest hitter for average, Ankiel's current .278 average rests on a .295 BABIP. That's a fairly reasonable mark, so I'd expect his average to hover around the .280 range.
Conclusion: Those who drafted Ankiel are pretty much getting what they expected. He's a great source for power that most people picked up at the end of their drafts.
Hong-Chih Kuo
W: Pitching out of the bullpen, Kuo's opportunities for Ws are far too difficult to predict. He's not likely to pick up more than a few more.
SV: With Takashi Saito going down, Jonathan Broxton is clearly the guy for saves. If an injury were to occur to Broxton, Kuo would have to be in consideration for the closer's gig.
K: Before this season, Kuo was good for a 10.20 K/9 in his 95.3 major league IP. This season, the mark rests at 10.90, an excellent rate that is in line with his career marks. He had a 12.65 K/9 in 150.1 minor league IP, so he's obviously a great source for strikeouts.
ERA: With a 1.63 ERA on the season, Kuo has taken a drastic step forward from his previous stints in the bigs when he had a 7.42 ERA in '07 and a 4.22 ERA in '06. Although his strikeout rate and walk rates are strong, his GB% indicates his ERA is likely to rise. He should remain a decent source for ERA, though.
WHIP: With a 2.28 BB/9, Kuo has certainly flashed much better control this year. He had a 4.91 BB/9 prior to '08. His BABIP sits at a decent .280; he could start to allow a few more hits, but he's likely to continue a WHIP around the 1.00 mark.
Conclusion: Kuo is clearly having a breakout season. He's always been a great source for strikeouts, but this year he is cutting down on his walks and putting things together. I'd look for him to continue to be a great rate stat source.
Mike Mussina
W: Moose has benefited from Lady Luck, logging 12 Ws when he should only have 7.9. The Yankees have a below average offense, scoring 4.58 runs per game [.04 lower than league average]. I wouldn't expect his luck to continue.
K: He's not the strikeout pitcher he occasionally was. In his Age 39 season, Moose is only striking 5.88 batter per nine. Don't expect him to push that tally too much higher.
ERA: With a 3.49 ERA, Mussina has been a pleasant surprise this season. His peripherals indicate a 4.18 ERA would be more in line, largely due to a lack of strikeouts.
WHIP: Mussina has a phenomenal 1.27 BB/9, even better than his 1.99 career mark. Mussina's BABIP has actually been a touch high at .314, so 1.24 WHIP could actually fall a few points to the high 1.10's.
Conclusion: With his K rate, I wouldn't expect him to keep up this value all season long, but he's certainly a solid play in AL-only leagues.
The five players for this week are Troy Glaus, Jhonny Peralta, Rick Ankiel, Hong-Chih Kuo and Mike Mussina.
Troy Glaus
HR: Glaus is hitting a HR once every 19.38 ABs, right around the 19.25 pace he had in an injury filled 2007. He's not hitting HRs as often as he did in '05 or '06, but he's at least staying healthy. Look for him to finish in the high 20's or low 30's.
R: Thanks to the play of Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols and Rick Ankiel, the Cardinals offense is surprisingly above-average. Scoring 4.78 runs per game, they're .28 runs above the league average. Glaus is hitting 5th without significant support behind him, so don't expect anything more than an average amount of runs scored.
RBI: Glaus ranks 13th in the National League in RBI, thanks in large part to hitting behind Ryan Ludwick [.370 OBP] and Albert Pujols [.472]. While the jury is still out on Ludwick, we all know Pujols will continue to provide Glaus with significant RBI opportunities.
SB: With only two steal attempts in the past 2 years, Glaus won't contribute much here.
AVG: For his career, Glaus has a .282 BABIP; this year, that mark sits at .299. If it regresses to his career average, Glaus' current .281 batting average could plummet to the high .260s. I wouldn't bet on him being a great source for batting average for the rest of the season.
Conclusion: Although regression should be expected in the batting average category, Glaus appears to be a solid bet to continue producing good numbers in the HR and RBI departments.
Jhonny Peralta
HR: Currently hitting a HR every 22.06 ABs, Peralta is flashing the best HR power from shortstops not named Hanley Ramirez. Entering his Age 26 season, it looks like Peralta is returning to the kind of power he showed back in '05.
R: The Tribe's offense has not been as advertised. Scoring just 4.57 runs per game, they're .05 runs per game worse than league average. Although he's bounced around, injuries to his teammates have put Peralta in the cleanup spot. There's not a ton of support behind him, but he's a much better source for runs as a cleanup hitter than he is as a 6 hitter.
RBI: Hitting cleanup, Peralta will likely be amongst the best shortstop sources for RBI. He's currently second in the category at his position, only trailing Michael Young by 2 RBI.
SB: With only a 38.89% success rate in 18 career attempts, Peralta isn't likely to push double digits. Expect a few more steals this season, if that.
AVG: Although his BABIP currently sits at .288, it sits at .320 for his career. I'd expect his current .263 average to rise marginally to the .270 range.
Conclusion: Peralta is good for what he was expected to be good for - an above average power source for his position. I'd expect him to continue to produce as he has, with a marginal improvement in batting average.
Rick Ankiel
HR: After hitting a HR every 15.64 ABs in his brief MLB stint in '07, Ankiel is currently hitting one every 14.73 ABs this year. His mark was at 13.13 in the minors, so he's clearly a legitimate source for dingers.
R: Although he's batted around in the lineup, Ankiel has been mostly hitting out of the cleanup spot. Troy Glaus has provided decent protection behind him. He's currently ranked in the top 25 of run scorers amongst outfielders, and he should continue to be around that level.
RBI: Everyone wishes they could hit behind Albert Pujols. Ankiel ranks around #20 for RBI by an outfielder, a decent mark that he should be able to keep up with.
SB: Ankiel isn't likely to be anything more than a guy who swipes a few bases each year. With 2 on the season, he's not likely to swipe too many more.
AVG: Not the greatest hitter for average, Ankiel's current .278 average rests on a .295 BABIP. That's a fairly reasonable mark, so I'd expect his average to hover around the .280 range.
Conclusion: Those who drafted Ankiel are pretty much getting what they expected. He's a great source for power that most people picked up at the end of their drafts.
Hong-Chih Kuo
W: Pitching out of the bullpen, Kuo's opportunities for Ws are far too difficult to predict. He's not likely to pick up more than a few more.
SV: With Takashi Saito going down, Jonathan Broxton is clearly the guy for saves. If an injury were to occur to Broxton, Kuo would have to be in consideration for the closer's gig.
K: Before this season, Kuo was good for a 10.20 K/9 in his 95.3 major league IP. This season, the mark rests at 10.90, an excellent rate that is in line with his career marks. He had a 12.65 K/9 in 150.1 minor league IP, so he's obviously a great source for strikeouts.
ERA: With a 1.63 ERA on the season, Kuo has taken a drastic step forward from his previous stints in the bigs when he had a 7.42 ERA in '07 and a 4.22 ERA in '06. Although his strikeout rate and walk rates are strong, his GB% indicates his ERA is likely to rise. He should remain a decent source for ERA, though.
WHIP: With a 2.28 BB/9, Kuo has certainly flashed much better control this year. He had a 4.91 BB/9 prior to '08. His BABIP sits at a decent .280; he could start to allow a few more hits, but he's likely to continue a WHIP around the 1.00 mark.
Conclusion: Kuo is clearly having a breakout season. He's always been a great source for strikeouts, but this year he is cutting down on his walks and putting things together. I'd look for him to continue to be a great rate stat source.
Mike Mussina
W: Moose has benefited from Lady Luck, logging 12 Ws when he should only have 7.9. The Yankees have a below average offense, scoring 4.58 runs per game [.04 lower than league average]. I wouldn't expect his luck to continue.
K: He's not the strikeout pitcher he occasionally was. In his Age 39 season, Moose is only striking 5.88 batter per nine. Don't expect him to push that tally too much higher.
ERA: With a 3.49 ERA, Mussina has been a pleasant surprise this season. His peripherals indicate a 4.18 ERA would be more in line, largely due to a lack of strikeouts.
WHIP: Mussina has a phenomenal 1.27 BB/9, even better than his 1.99 career mark. Mussina's BABIP has actually been a touch high at .314, so 1.24 WHIP could actually fall a few points to the high 1.10's.
Conclusion: With his K rate, I wouldn't expect him to keep up this value all season long, but he's certainly a solid play in AL-only leagues.
