Putting Bad To Good Use
You step into the batter's box. Lay the bat down on the plate and adjust your batting gloves. Then you pick up the bat over your shoulder and slowly turn your head and face the pitcher. Jonathan Papelbon is staring back at you, his eyes just below the flat, pulled-down brim of his cap. Your grip on the bat tightens up as he starts his motion, you time his delivery perfectly taking a step as the ball releases and swinging immediately after. Your head jerks and your body rotates unnaturally after a swing that was two seconds too early since Papelbon threw a slider, not a fastball. That's strike one. Two pitches later and your walking back to the dugout after making a fool of yourself in front of 40,000+ people whom you've never met.
You step into the batter box. Pick up a yellow plastic bat between fingers and waggle the bat over your back should while simultaneously tapping your front foot in the freshly cut grass. Looking out you see your 11-year old son holding a big white wiffle ball in his hand. He begins his windup and throws you a meatball of a pitch, which you easily smash high into the air and over the bush that was designated beforehand as the home run marker. As you trot around the bases, to him, you appear the greatest ball player to ever walk the Earth.
Okay, my over-dramatic relativity example is over. But keep it in mind as I change the subject over towards streaming pitchers. Well not exactly streaming pitchers since that implies continued adding and dropping of pitchers, I'm talking more about getting a spot-start from a guy. Let's say its Saturday (today), your in a H2H league and you and your opponent are tied in wins. After checking his team, you see he has 3 total pitchers starting Saturday and Sunday and you have only a combined 2. Right now, odds are you are not going to win the Wins category. It's the perfect time to drop an expendable player from your team and add a pitcher simply because they are starting.
Using a real-time example, let's say this week (H2H league) your in a really close wins week. It's the perfect time to add a pitcher just because he's starting. Looking at your options you got the following: (note: these are the actual starting pitchers for Sunday so if you need a spot-start tomorrow, follow along closely)
These four pitchers are our lovely choices. Despite how bad their numbers look, one of these pitchers is going to be starting for you tomorrow. Based on those numbers you could go with Miner's ERA or Washburn's experience and recent success, but the astute reader knows there are three more things to look at. First is the opposing teams' batting ability, second is the opposing pitcher's pitching ability, and last is the pitcher's own team's hitting ability. Remember that we are looking for a win so all of these factors beyond the pitcher's control do affect the ability for him to get a win. To determine the opposing team's ability to hit I simply used Runs/Game numbers courtesy of the Hardball Times. Here is that chart:
Much like the activity series of metals, do not pay too much attention to small differences such as the difference between St. Louis and Baltimore. If one pitcher was facing Toronto and another facing the White Sox however, the difference in R/G between them, .74 R/G, is significant enough to decide not to spot-start the pitcher facing the White Sox. Looking back at our four possible candidates that puts a serious black-eye on Miner and Wolf, who are both facing significantly better offenses than Washburn and Bergman. Still, I would not eliminate anyone just yet because we have yet to look at the opposing pitchers. The matchups are as follows:
Miner vs J Vazquez - 4.57 ERA
Bergmann vs C Kershaw - 5.18 ERA
Wolf vs J Suppan - 4.65 ERA
Washburn vs S Marcum - 3.05 ERA
Obviously ERA does not tell you the whole story when it comes to a pitcher, since Marcum is not as dominant looking after getting rocked in his first start off the DL. Now in his second start off, who knows if Marcum can regain his pre-injury form. The one thing to note about all of the opposing pitchers is that none of them are doing well, so there is a good chance one of the pitchers we want to add is going to get the win. That is our goal.
As I previously stated, the last thing to look at is the pitcher's team's R/G. Simply refer back to the original chart we used for opposing team's hitting ability and we find that Miner gets a distinct edge from this with Detroit fourth in runs per game and anybody who has been watching baseball lately knows that the Tigers have been red-hot. Washington, Seattle, and Houston are 2nd, 3rd, and 9th worst respectively at scoring runs so that turns me away from those pitchers. Taking all three factors into account, I would pick up Miner for a spot start tomorrow if I was looking for a win mostly because of how dominating the Tigers offense has been lately.
Keep in mind that this system is only for spot-starting wins. If I was in a close ERA or K race, the pitcher's team's R/G would not matter and neither would the opposing pitcher. The opposing team's batting ability should still be taken into account though because obviously some teams are easier to hold to less runs and some teams have a tendency for striking out.
If you are worried about the ethics of streaming or spot-starting, worry not. There are simple league adjustments that could have been made pre-season that make streaming not valuable. If your league was not smart enough to make those adjustments, I say do whatever helps you win. Spot-starting requires you to have the roster spot available, and thus spot-starting is the result of wise strategy and good roster management, not cheating or taking advantage of the league. If anyone in your league calls you out for spot-starting, tell them Paul Singman said it was okay.
You step into the batter box. Pick up a yellow plastic bat between fingers and waggle the bat over your back should while simultaneously tapping your front foot in the freshly cut grass. Looking out you see your 11-year old son holding a big white wiffle ball in his hand. He begins his windup and throws you a meatball of a pitch, which you easily smash high into the air and over the bush that was designated beforehand as the home run marker. As you trot around the bases, to him, you appear the greatest ball player to ever walk the Earth.
Okay, my over-dramatic relativity example is over. But keep it in mind as I change the subject over towards streaming pitchers. Well not exactly streaming pitchers since that implies continued adding and dropping of pitchers, I'm talking more about getting a spot-start from a guy. Let's say its Saturday (today), your in a H2H league and you and your opponent are tied in wins. After checking his team, you see he has 3 total pitchers starting Saturday and Sunday and you have only a combined 2. Right now, odds are you are not going to win the Wins category. It's the perfect time to drop an expendable player from your team and add a pitcher simply because they are starting.
Using a real-time example, let's say this week (H2H league) your in a really close wins week. It's the perfect time to add a pitcher just because he's starting. Looking at your options you got the following: (note: these are the actual starting pitchers for Sunday so if you need a spot-start tomorrow, follow along closely)
| Zach Miner | 4 | 3.73 | CWS |
| Jason Bergmann | 1 | 4.21 | LAD |
| Randy Wolf | 6 | 4.74 | MIL |
| Jarrod Washburn | 4 | 4.75 | TOR |
These four pitchers are our lovely choices. Despite how bad their numbers look, one of these pitchers is going to be starting for you tomorrow. Based on those numbers you could go with Miner's ERA or Washburn's experience and recent success, but the astute reader knows there are three more things to look at. First is the opposing teams' batting ability, second is the opposing pitcher's pitching ability, and last is the pitcher's own team's hitting ability. Remember that we are looking for a win so all of these factors beyond the pitcher's control do affect the ability for him to get a win. To determine the opposing team's ability to hit I simply used Runs/Game numbers courtesy of the Hardball Times. Here is that chart:
| Team | R/G |
| SD | 3.76 |
| Was | 3.82 |
| Sea | 3.91 |
| SF | 4.04 |
| KC | 4.17 |
| OAK | 4.22 |
| LAD | 4.22 |
| TOR | 4.24 |
| HOU | 4.28 |
| LAA | 4.44 |
| ATL | 4.45 |
| CIN | 4.45 |
| ARI | 4.48 |
| TB | 4.54 |
| COL | 4.58 |
| CLE | 4.61 |
| NYY | 4.69 |
| STL | 4.70 |
| MIL | 4.72 |
| BAL | 4.75 |
| FLA | 4.79 |
| MIN | 4.86 |
| NYM | 4.88 |
| PIT | 4.89 |
| CWS | 4.98 |
| PHI | 4.98 |
| DET | 5.02 |
| BOS | 5.02 |
| CHC | 5.25 |
| TEX | 5.46 |
Much like the activity series of metals, do not pay too much attention to small differences such as the difference between St. Louis and Baltimore. If one pitcher was facing Toronto and another facing the White Sox however, the difference in R/G between them, .74 R/G, is significant enough to decide not to spot-start the pitcher facing the White Sox. Looking back at our four possible candidates that puts a serious black-eye on Miner and Wolf, who are both facing significantly better offenses than Washburn and Bergman. Still, I would not eliminate anyone just yet because we have yet to look at the opposing pitchers. The matchups are as follows:
Miner vs J Vazquez - 4.57 ERA
Bergmann vs C Kershaw - 5.18 ERA
Wolf vs J Suppan - 4.65 ERA
Washburn vs S Marcum - 3.05 ERA
Obviously ERA does not tell you the whole story when it comes to a pitcher, since Marcum is not as dominant looking after getting rocked in his first start off the DL. Now in his second start off, who knows if Marcum can regain his pre-injury form. The one thing to note about all of the opposing pitchers is that none of them are doing well, so there is a good chance one of the pitchers we want to add is going to get the win. That is our goal.
As I previously stated, the last thing to look at is the pitcher's team's R/G. Simply refer back to the original chart we used for opposing team's hitting ability and we find that Miner gets a distinct edge from this with Detroit fourth in runs per game and anybody who has been watching baseball lately knows that the Tigers have been red-hot. Washington, Seattle, and Houston are 2nd, 3rd, and 9th worst respectively at scoring runs so that turns me away from those pitchers. Taking all three factors into account, I would pick up Miner for a spot start tomorrow if I was looking for a win mostly because of how dominating the Tigers offense has been lately.
Keep in mind that this system is only for spot-starting wins. If I was in a close ERA or K race, the pitcher's team's R/G would not matter and neither would the opposing pitcher. The opposing team's batting ability should still be taken into account though because obviously some teams are easier to hold to less runs and some teams have a tendency for striking out.
If you are worried about the ethics of streaming or spot-starting, worry not. There are simple league adjustments that could have been made pre-season that make streaming not valuable. If your league was not smart enough to make those adjustments, I say do whatever helps you win. Spot-starting requires you to have the roster spot available, and thus spot-starting is the result of wise strategy and good roster management, not cheating or taking advantage of the league. If anyone in your league calls you out for spot-starting, tell them Paul Singman said it was okay.
