So, I know this is a little later than I had anticipated, but here are my top "overrated" players from this season.
SP: I'm going to start where everyone started this off-season when discussing pitchers:
Johan Santana of the New York Mets. Santana has been a very good pitcher this year, with an ERA of 2.64 and 153 strikeouts. But he hasn't been the fantasy force most expected, and he only has 12 wins (the Mets offense hasn't exactly done him any favors). Pitchers simply don't belong in the middle of the first round, no matter how good. Santana owners have learned that lesson the hard way this year.
SP: I wanted to call out Brett Myers, who I don't think should be owned in 90% of ESPN standard leagues, but he's been good lately and I understand people stocking up for the playoffs.
Pedro Martinez gets the honor in his stead. His ERA this year is over 5.00 and his WHIP is approaching 1.50. His best days are clearly behind him and he is somehow still owned in over half of ESPN standard leagues.
SP: What's in a name? A lot, if you're Cleveland's
Fausto Carmona. I assume that his name is the biggest reason he's still owned in 90% of ESPN standard leagues. WHIP of 1.60? Come on. It's not like Cleveland is winning a bunch of games and so you're trading peripherals for wins and strikeouts. He has fallen with his team and I'm sure the injury hurt a lot, but he definitely belongs in a list of the overrated.
RP: I'm not big on drafting any closers early, but I had to laugh when I saw
Jose Valverde heading into this season as the 8th overall closer taken. I understand that not every closer can be lights out, but his numbers two years ago were absolutely atrocious. The biggest reason he was valuable last year was the quantity of saves he accumulated, but his move to Houston didn't put him in a position to improve upon those numbers. I definitely want no part of Jose Valverde on any of my fantasy teams.
RP: How
Todd Jones was drafted ahead of Brad Lidge & Joakim Soria is a complete mystery to me. Detroit has been doing its best to replace Jones for years, and with Rodney and Zumaya it seems to have the suitors lined up. Jones offers saves only; while most closers help with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, he really can't be counted on in any category. I know he's been injured, but I look at Jones as a very overrated fantasy closer.
C: I have a tie here, between
Victor Martinez and
Jorge Posada. I don't know how much of Martinez's homerless season can be explained away by his injury, but the guy was going too high regardless of how he performed this season. He is at best a 4-cat player (who will never steal a base) and isn't dominant enough in any one category to merit picks in the third round. I know he plays at a tough position, but I'm never an advocate of drafting catchers early because it means you'll have a weak player at another position. I tried to call out Posada heading into this year. Age is simply a fact of life most catchers cannot overcome, and Posada was no exception to the rule. Injuries took their toll on a guy whose ADP in ESPN leagues was 93.7. Honorable mention here goes to
Kenji Johjima, who has also been awful this season.
1B: Gotta be Tampa's
Carlos Pena. I picked up the guy off of waivers recently and he's been hot, but his ADP was six points ahead of Derrek Lee in ESPN. That's unbelievable to me. When you look at Pena's track record, the only thing he has done consistently is bounce around. It's reasonable to expect him to provide power, but putting him ahead of D-Lee was nonsense. It involved too much risk and left him no ceiling; i.e., the best he could do was live up to that draft position.
2B: Zach will definitely laugh at me for this, but I think the most overrated second baseman in fantasy has to be LA's
Howie Kendrick. I love his potential and I think his high average is so valuable - it allows you to play someone like Ryan Howard at first or Adam Dunn in your outfield without worrying about having a team batting average of .225. Nonetheless, in 84 games this season, he has only 35 R, 39 RBI, and 11 SB. If you double those numbers and call that full season production, he offers you only 70 runs and 80 RBI. An average above .300 and 20 steals sounds great from your second baseman, but with those numbers he needs to be a 100-run player. Until he reaches that threshold, he is overrated.
3B: I don't think Zach and I have given enough publicity to our disdain for
Miguel Cabrera this season, but he definitely tops my list of overrated third basemen. He does have 100 RBI, but he's scored only 65 runs. His .291 average and 28 home runs are middle-of-the-road numbers. Basically, that means he's been a three-category producer this year. Not everyone can be a 5-cat stud, but if you're consistenly taken in the middle of the first round, you should produce consistently in four categories and be dominant in one. A-Rod, H-Ram, Sizemore and Soriano are 5-cat studs; Fielder, Howard, and others ensure that you'll have plenty of HRs. Cabrera doesn't belong in either category and doesn't belong in the first round of fantasy drafts.
SS: I can't pick on the injured Troy Tulowitzki, and I think I'm going to have to call out
Jimmy Rollins here. The Phillie shortstop was placed in a category with Reyes and H-Ram when he really didn't quite belong, and that's shown this year. He missed time for injury, which might account for his unexciting HR/RBI/R totals, but his .260 average can't be explained away by time off. His numbers had been rising since 2003, but he has had a decline across the board this year. It could be an aberration or he could be getting old, but I think consistent 30/30 production is more than we can expect from J-Rol, and he's going to be overrated heading into next year.
OF: I've been saying for a long time that
Carl Crawford is not a first-round fantasy talent, and I think after this season people will finally believe it. He has been taken in the first round largely on the
potential that his power will develop, and he will tack 20-25 HR onto a .300+ average and 40 or more steals. It would be great if it happened, but drafting first round picks based on potential is never a sound strategy.
OF:
Bobby Abreu was a little overrated going into this season, in my opinion. He was going ahead of Corey Hart and Matt Kemp consistently; I look to both of them as five-category producers with more potential for a big season than Abreu. He was also going ahead of Adam Dunn - whatever negatives you want to say about Dunn, he provides a big boost in HR, RBI, and R. The days of big power are in Abreu's past, and while he's still a safe bet for production from a second OF, Kemp and Hart have proven they were worth the risk and belonged ahead of him.
OF: Time for the annual stat-geek rant about LA's
Juan Pierre, one of the most overrated players in the history of all of baseball. I used to defend him as a consistent source of steals, but his total of 25 RBI is simply pathetic. The fact that he's scored only 40 runs is also a joke. It doesn't matter how many bases you steal; if you can't contribute in any other category, you are too one-dimensional to be a fantasy outfielder. LA shouldn't even be playing him with the other guys they have.
Please cut me some slack on Rollins, I know he's been hot lately. Still, I think he was drafted expecting another season with 30 HR, and that was never a realistic possibility. Who are your most overrated, and where am I wrong today?
