The Real Deal - 9/1/08
Each week I will pick 5 hot players from the previous week and review if their hot week will continue or if the are playing over their heads. I will try to find out who is real and who is not in fantasy baseball.
1) Chris Dickerson - 6/2/5/.304/.407
Chris is a bit of a free swinger and his MLB K% is similar right now to his minor league number which is around 30%. Take into account his .425 BABIP and think Ryan Howard in average. So if you are then hopping for a big bopper with the 2 homers this week and me mentioning Ryan Howard you will probably be disappointed. His high was 13 homers in 352 minor league AB's. This year in the minors was the first time he has had a OPS over .800. Expect a drop in power and also a drop in average. This should limit his value in most leagues. He maybe playable but as a game changer he is not the Real Deal.
2) Jayson Werth - 7/3/6/1/.417
Werth was having a great season in part time duty, but is now getting full time starts and responding with weeks like this. His xBABIP is .360, so a BABIP of .329 is a bit low. I don't expect an average near .300 though since he has a K% also near 30%. He has shown power like this before in 2004 he hit 16 in a few less games. He still hits lefty pitching better, but his OPS is .804 against Righties. He should continue to play through September and could draw interest for a full time job next year. He is the Real Deal.
3) Dustin Pedroia - 10/2/7/2/.500
We all know how good Pedroia is, but this week needed some recognition. He even has 14 steals now with the 2 steals this week. That many steals pushes him to arguably a 4 category player at 2B. He has 106/15/68/14/.327 which gives him value at R, HR, SB and AVE. His power and average seem on track with his splits and the steals should continue as he has put effort in the offseason into adding that part to his game. He is the Real Deal and better than most think.
4) Dallas Braden - 1/2/1.38/1.23
He had 2 starts this week making those stats deceiving. He only had 2 strikeouts in 11 IP, which does not predict good things. His K/BB is only 1.71 and he has a FIP of 4.49 compared to his ERA of 3.88. He is a little lucky and does not predict much of the same from this week. He may get some lucky games pitching in OAK, but he does not even get a good GB% to limit homers. He is not the Real Deal.
5) Joel Hanrahan - 3/3/0.00/0.80
Hanrahan has been closing since the end of July and has 7 saves all earned in August. That is only 2 off the leader in the last 28 days. You really can never count out a closer even on a horrible team. Any wins they get should be close and require a save. Hanrahan is probably in line for a homer or two to bring up his HR/FB, but predicting Relievers luck based on only 60+ innings is tough. I think he is a good reliever with a high 3 ERA, but as long as he is closing he is the Real Deal.
That's all for this week. Check in next week for another 5 players.
1) Chris Dickerson - 6/2/5/.304/.407
Chris is a bit of a free swinger and his MLB K% is similar right now to his minor league number which is around 30%. Take into account his .425 BABIP and think Ryan Howard in average. So if you are then hopping for a big bopper with the 2 homers this week and me mentioning Ryan Howard you will probably be disappointed. His high was 13 homers in 352 minor league AB's. This year in the minors was the first time he has had a OPS over .800. Expect a drop in power and also a drop in average. This should limit his value in most leagues. He maybe playable but as a game changer he is not the Real Deal.
2) Jayson Werth - 7/3/6/1/.417
Werth was having a great season in part time duty, but is now getting full time starts and responding with weeks like this. His xBABIP is .360, so a BABIP of .329 is a bit low. I don't expect an average near .300 though since he has a K% also near 30%. He has shown power like this before in 2004 he hit 16 in a few less games. He still hits lefty pitching better, but his OPS is .804 against Righties. He should continue to play through September and could draw interest for a full time job next year. He is the Real Deal.
3) Dustin Pedroia - 10/2/7/2/.500
We all know how good Pedroia is, but this week needed some recognition. He even has 14 steals now with the 2 steals this week. That many steals pushes him to arguably a 4 category player at 2B. He has 106/15/68/14/.327 which gives him value at R, HR, SB and AVE. His power and average seem on track with his splits and the steals should continue as he has put effort in the offseason into adding that part to his game. He is the Real Deal and better than most think.
4) Dallas Braden - 1/2/1.38/1.23
He had 2 starts this week making those stats deceiving. He only had 2 strikeouts in 11 IP, which does not predict good things. His K/BB is only 1.71 and he has a FIP of 4.49 compared to his ERA of 3.88. He is a little lucky and does not predict much of the same from this week. He may get some lucky games pitching in OAK, but he does not even get a good GB% to limit homers. He is not the Real Deal.
5) Joel Hanrahan - 3/3/0.00/0.80
Hanrahan has been closing since the end of July and has 7 saves all earned in August. That is only 2 off the leader in the last 28 days. You really can never count out a closer even on a horrible team. Any wins they get should be close and require a save. Hanrahan is probably in line for a homer or two to bring up his HR/FB, but predicting Relievers luck based on only 60+ innings is tough. I think he is a good reliever with a high 3 ERA, but as long as he is closing he is the Real Deal.
That's all for this week. Check in next week for another 5 players.
