K/9 vs. K%
For the edition of Outside the Box two weeks ago, I took a deeper look into Johan Santana. Instead of using the widely popular K/9, or strikeouts per 9 innings (formula below), I used what I called K/BF, or strikeouts per batters faced. I also told you I would give some context for the stat in the future. Well, the future is now.
I will start off by saying that K/BF was slightly stupid. There is an stat already established that is the exact same thing, just only in a much more presentable format. It's called K%. It's the exact same formula (below again) but you take the decimal produced from the division of the K's into the BF and make it a percentage by multiplying it by 100.
Really, the difference between the two, K/9 and K%, is very slight. Dividing by Innings Pitched or Batters Faced is what some would call nitpicking. Let me give you a situation that exaggerates the problem with K/9. You have two pitchers, Pitcher A and Pitcher B with the following stats:
Both pitchers have the same number of strikeouts and innings pitched, thus they have the same K/9. However, Pitcher A has faced a significantly more batters in the 100 innings he's thrown because he allows 1.5 baserunners an inning, vs. just the 1 Pitcher B faces. Assuming neither pitcher gets a double play, Pitcher A would face 450 batters and Pitcher B 400, as shown in the table. Obviously that makes Pitcher B's K% better, because he strikes out a higher percentage of batters that he faces.
Read that last line again, "he strikes out a higher percentage of batters that he faces. " Isn't that the purpose of K/9? To show not just the amount of strikeouts, but the efficiency that a pitcher gets them. Obviously a pitcher who strikes out 25% of his batters is better at striking out batters than one who only gets K's 22.2 percent of the time. However, K/9 doesn't show that difference. To K/9, these two pitchers are the same.
So when you're evaluating to pitchers for a trade in your league, K% is clearly the stat to use, if you can find it. Although the flaw in K/9 was apparent in my handpicked example, let's see how different the K/9 and K%'s are for actual pitchers this season. I made the list from pitchers who have at least 125 strikeouts this season, so that is why it ends at the seemingly random number of 43.
As you can see, there certainly is a difference between the order of pitchers based on their K/9 and K% numbers. The best example is probably Gil Meche. When I saw his name before Scott Kazmir's I thought "no way Meche is a better strikeout pitcher than Kazmir." Sure enough, when I took a look over at the K% column, Meche fell 7 spots down, and Kaz went up 3, showing Kazmir is clearly the better strikeout pitcher even though K/9 thinks otherwise.
Yes, I know what you may be thinking. Besides the Kazmir/Meche example, most of the pitchers are only 1 or 2 spots away in ranking for each stat. Though if K% is better, we should be using it, right? Still, most sites show K/9, something I hope will start to change soon. Even if it is just a "marginal revolution", a revolution it still is.
The last thing you'll probably want is the context for each stat, so here it is. League average K% is 17.01%, and K/9 is 6.93.
If you enjoyed this article, let me know!
Read that last line again, "he strikes out a higher percentage of batters that he faces. " Isn't that the purpose of K/9? To show not just the amount of strikeouts, but the efficiency that a pitcher gets them. Obviously a pitcher who strikes out 25% of his batters is better at striking out batters than one who only gets K's 22.2 percent of the time. However, K/9 doesn't show that difference. To K/9, these two pitchers are the same.
So when you're evaluating to pitchers for a trade in your league, K% is clearly the stat to use, if you can find it. Although the flaw in K/9 was apparent in my handpicked example, let's see how different the K/9 and K%'s are for actual pitchers this season. I made the list from pitchers who have at least 125 strikeouts this season, so that is why it ends at the seemingly random number of 43.
Name Rank K/9 Rank K%
Tim Lincecum 1 10.23 1 27.7%
A.J. Burnett 2 10.02 2 26.6%
Ervin Santana 3 9.37 5 23.9%
Roy Halladay 4 9.21 6 23.9%
Dan Haren 5 9.11 3 24.9%
Chad Billingsley 6 9.09 8 23.6%
Javier Vasquez 7 9.00 9 23.4%
Edison Volquez 8 8.95 4 24.4%
Cole Hamels 9 8.88 7 23.7%
Johan Santana 10 8.81 11 22.7%
Ryan Dempster 11 8.64 12 22.5%
Matt Cain 12 8.48 15 21.6%
Ted Lilly 13 8.43 10 22.9%
Brandon Webb 14 8.22 19 21.2%
Zack Greinke 15 8.20 13 21.9%
Ricky Nolasco 16 8.13 17 21.3%
Felix Hernandez 17 8.09 23 20.8%
Randy Johnson 18 8.07 16 21.3%
Jake Peavy 19 8.06 20 21.0%
Josh Beckett 20 7.97 25 20.3%
Oliver Perez 21 7.88 24 20.5%
Cliff Lee 22 7.85 26 20.3%
Gil Meche 23 7.81 30 19.6%
Scott Kazmir 24 7.77 21 21.0%
Andy Pettitte 25 7.76 22 21.0%
Johnny Cueto 26 7.71 14 21.6%
Justin Verlander 27 7.64 18 21.2%
Ben Sheets 28 7.53 28 19.9%
Brett Myers 29 7.50 27 20.1%
Bronson Arroyo 30 7.44 35 18.9%
Ubaldo Jiminez 31 7.44 33 19.5%
James Shields 32 7.43 36 18.7%
Jonathen Sanchez 33 7.34 32 19.6%
Roy Oswalt 34 7.32 37 18.6%
John Danks 35 7.24 29 19.8%
Jered Weaver 36 7.21 34 18.9%
Manny Parra 27 6.99 39 18.1%
Derek Lowe 28 6.91 31 19.6%
Aaron Harang 39 6.84 38 18.5%
Daisuke Matsuzaka 40 6.67 41 17.1%
Jon Lester 41 6.41 42 17.0%
Jair Jurrjens 42 6.31 40 17.3%
Paul Maholm 43 6.28 43 16.9%
As you can see, there certainly is a difference between the order of pitchers based on their K/9 and K% numbers. The best example is probably Gil Meche. When I saw his name before Scott Kazmir's I thought "no way Meche is a better strikeout pitcher than Kazmir." Sure enough, when I took a look over at the K% column, Meche fell 7 spots down, and Kaz went up 3, showing Kazmir is clearly the better strikeout pitcher even though K/9 thinks otherwise.
Yes, I know what you may be thinking. Besides the Kazmir/Meche example, most of the pitchers are only 1 or 2 spots away in ranking for each stat. Though if K% is better, we should be using it, right? Still, most sites show K/9, something I hope will start to change soon. Even if it is just a "marginal revolution", a revolution it still is.
The last thing you'll probably want is the context for each stat, so here it is. League average K% is 17.01%, and K/9 is 6.93.
If you enjoyed this article, let me know!

