Saturday, September 6, 2008

K/9 vs. K%

For the edition of Outside the Box two weeks ago, I took a deeper look into Johan Santana. Instead of using the widely popular K/9, or strikeouts per 9 innings (formula below), I used what I called K/BF, or strikeouts per batters faced. I also told you I would give some context for the stat in the future. Well, the future is now.I will start off by saying that K/BF was slightly stupid. There is an stat already established that is the exact same thing, just only in a much more presentable format. It's called K%. It's the exact same formula (below again) but you take the decimal produced from the division of the K's into the BF and make it a percentage by multiplying it by 100.Really, the difference between the two, K/9 and K%, is very slight. Dividing by Innings Pitched or Batters Faced is what some would call nitpicking. Let me give you a situation that exaggerates the problem with K/9. You have two pitchers, Pitcher A and Pitcher B with the following stats:

Both pitchers have the same number of strikeouts and innings pitched, thus they have the same K/9. However, Pitcher A has faced a significantly more batters in the 100 innings he's thrown because he allows 1.5 baserunners an inning, vs. just the 1 Pitcher B faces. Assuming neither pitcher gets a double play, Pitcher A would face 450 batters and Pitcher B 400, as shown in the table. Obviously that makes Pitcher B's K% better, because he strikes out a higher percentage of batters that he faces.

Read that last line again, "he strikes out a higher percentage of batters that he faces. " Isn't that the purpose of K/9? To show not just the amount of strikeouts, but the efficiency that a pitcher gets them. Obviously a pitcher who strikes out 25% of his batters is better at striking out batters than one who only gets K's 22.2 percent of the time. However, K/9 doesn't show that difference. To K/9, these two pitchers are the same.

So when you're evaluating to pitchers for a trade in your league, K% is clearly the stat to use, if you can find it. Although the flaw in K/9 was apparent in my handpicked example, let's see how different the K/9 and K%'s are for actual pitchers this season. I made the list from pitchers who have at least 125 strikeouts this season, so that is why it ends at the seemingly random number of 43.

Name                Rank    K/9  Rank     K%
Tim Lincecum 1 10.23 1 27.7%
A.J. Burnett 2 10.02 2 26.6%
Ervin Santana 3 9.37 5 23.9%
Roy Halladay 4 9.21 6 23.9%
Dan Haren 5 9.11 3 24.9%
Chad Billingsley 6 9.09 8 23.6%
Javier Vasquez 7 9.00 9 23.4%
Edison Volquez 8 8.95 4 24.4%
Cole Hamels 9 8.88 7 23.7%
Johan Santana 10 8.81 11 22.7%
Ryan Dempster 11 8.64 12 22.5%
Matt Cain 12 8.48 15 21.6%
Ted Lilly 13 8.43 10 22.9%
Brandon Webb 14 8.22 19 21.2%
Zack Greinke 15 8.20 13 21.9%
Ricky Nolasco 16 8.13 17 21.3%
Felix Hernandez 17 8.09 23 20.8%
Randy Johnson 18 8.07 16 21.3%
Jake Peavy 19 8.06 20 21.0%
Josh Beckett 20 7.97 25 20.3%
Oliver Perez 21 7.88 24 20.5%
Cliff Lee 22 7.85 26 20.3%
Gil Meche 23 7.81 30 19.6%
Scott Kazmir 24 7.77 21 21.0%
Andy Pettitte 25 7.76 22 21.0%
Johnny Cueto 26 7.71 14 21.6%
Justin Verlander 27 7.64 18 21.2%
Ben Sheets 28 7.53 28 19.9%
Brett Myers 29 7.50 27 20.1%
Bronson Arroyo 30 7.44 35 18.9%
Ubaldo Jiminez 31 7.44 33 19.5%
James Shields 32 7.43 36 18.7%
Jonathen Sanchez 33 7.34 32 19.6%
Roy Oswalt 34 7.32 37 18.6%
John Danks 35 7.24 29 19.8%
Jered Weaver 36 7.21 34 18.9%
Manny Parra 27 6.99 39 18.1%
Derek Lowe 28 6.91 31 19.6%
Aaron Harang 39 6.84 38 18.5%
Daisuke Matsuzaka 40 6.67 41 17.1%
Jon Lester 41 6.41 42 17.0%
Jair Jurrjens 42 6.31 40 17.3%
Paul Maholm 43 6.28 43 16.9%

As you can see, there certainly is a difference between the order of pitchers based on their K/9 and K% numbers. The best example is probably Gil Meche. When I saw his name before Scott Kazmir's I thought "no way Meche is a better strikeout pitcher than Kazmir." Sure enough, when I took a look over at the K% column, Meche fell 7 spots down, and Kaz went up 3, showing Kazmir is clearly the better strikeout pitcher even though K/9 thinks otherwise.

Yes, I know what you may be thinking. Besides the Kazmir/Meche example, most of the pitchers are only 1 or 2 spots away in ranking for each stat. Though if K% is better, we should be using it, right? Still, most sites show K/9, something I hope will start to change soon. Even if it is just a "marginal revolution", a revolution it still is.

The last thing you'll probably want is the context for each stat, so here it is. League average K% is 17.01%, and K/9 is 6.93.

If you enjoyed this article, let me know!
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