Monday, September 15, 2008

The Real Deal - 9/15/08

Each week I will pick 5 hot players from the previous week and review if their hot week will continue or if the are playing over their heads. I will try to find out who is real and who is not in fantasy baseball.

This week we have a few good weeks out of some young players. These might be players to target for next year so lets see if they are The Real Deal.

1) Oscar Salazar - 4/3/8/0/.357

Salazar went on a major tear this week and was near the top in homers. Looking through his minor league stats though I don't see how he can keep this up. His most homers in the minors were 22 in AA. He has spent 13 years in the minors and never showed this power. He also has a quite impressive 1.40 BB/K, but that is also unmatched in the minors and he will likely fall back under 1. I don't expect him to be in a starting role next year so his value is limited as a 30 year old rookie. I don't think he is The Real Deal.

2) Ryan Shealy - 4/3/7/0/.438

Shealy was a favorite of mine when he left Colorado as he had a K% around 15 and 30-35 homer potential, but he has been nothing short of a disappointment in the majors. His K% has pushed to 25% and his walk percent has been under 10. His power has up until this week failed to show in the majors. Hopefully he is finally turning this around, because he is reaching 500 career AB's and his ratio's are not impressive. He needs to push his BB% over 10 and bring his K% down to 20% or lower. He also needs to raise his HR/FB ratio. I still think he can do this if again trusted with full time AB's next year. I still think he is The Real Deal.

3) Kelly Shoppach - 7/3/7/0/.500

Another player with 3 homers this week and still getting good number of AB's. He had yet to show the power many had seen in him when he hit 26 homers in AAA in only 371 AB's. He is getting a good share of AB's this year and has 20 homers now. Not sure how Cleveland will handle him going into next year or if they will try to move him, but he deserves a full time job. He strikes out as much as Ryan Howard with a 35.9% strikeout rate this year, but also has a 22% HR/FB rate at the catcher position. Being a catcher I label him The Real Deal.

4) Alfredo Aceves - 1/2/0/1.29/0.71

Looking through Aceves minor league numbers I love his splits this year in the minors. He has had a K/BB over 3.2 at all three levels. His BB% jumped a bit at AAA, but still held a strong K/BB. It will take a few more games to see if his ratios hold up in the majors, but I think he is worth a flyer now and see what the Yankees do with him next year. He is due for two starts this week as well. Not going to call him The Real Deal yet. Although I do find it entertaining he wears #91 in a tribute to Dennis Rodman.

5) Brad Ziegler - 3/5/1/0.00/1.38

The WHIP is a bit concerning this week and I have had my concerns about Ziegler. He only strikes out 4.50 batters per 9 innings and his K/BB is a poor 1.35. He is getting a very lucky .228 BABIP and leaving 93.0% of batters on base. How much of a regression can a reliever get in just another few games though? The only comparison I can see is Chad Bradford although most years Chad had a better K/BB. I see these two as very close in numbers including GB% and a decreased HR/FB. Even with my doubts I like the Bradford comparison and think he could be someone who breaks the league in HR/FB and I would consider him The Real Deal.

That's all for this week. Check in next week for another 5 players.
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