Saturday, September 27, 2008

No Longer the "Short"-Stops

Back in the year 2000, there were basically 3-4 great hitting shortstops that carried the position into offensive respectability. Specifically Alex Rodriguez of the Mariners, Nomar Garciaparra of the Red Sox, and Derek Jeter of the Yankees. A-Rod hit 41 home runs that year, Nomar batted .372, and Jeter eclipsed the 200 hit mark with 201 (hits). Miguel Tejada of the Oakland Athletics would be the number four of that list with a solid 30 home runs, but he was clearly a notch below the top three because his WPA/LI was more than 2.00 points lower.

Over the next few years Nomar would inevitably get injured, Jeter would see a slight regression in his performance that brought him from elite to good, and A-Rod would move to third base in 2004. That year, 2004, only Miguel Tejada would break the 3.00 barrier in WPA/LI and in 2005 no short-stop did. The position had regressed to a weak position offensively speaking and fell into the class of second baseman and catchers.

Average SS OPS 
Year OPS

2000 0.773
2001 0.746
2002 0.737
2003 0.740
2004 0.750
2005 0.751
2006 0.756
2007 0.755
2008 0.764
In 2006 some of the old, familiar faces filled the top of the short-stop ranks. Derek Jeter, Carlos Guillen, and Tejada being the three. But 2006 also saw the emergence of the future elite. In his second full season, Jose Reyes would post a .841 OPS after just a .687 OPS the year before. Although already established as a quick runner with gap-power, in 2006 Jimmy Rollins would also establish himself as a deep-power threat, doubling his home run total to 25. And after being traded from the Red Sox to the Marlins as part of the Beckett-Lowell deal, Hanley Ramirez, in his first full season, would blast onto the major league scene with a .292/.353/.480 slash line.

In 2007 all three short-stops would tally impressive numbers and bring the position back to the respectability it had 6-7 years ago. This led to, in 2008, the triumvirate of short-stops being taken on average in the first round of fantasy drafts. Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins was the pecking order, and after that Derek Jeter and Colorado's Troy Tulo were the next short-stops taken - albeit with a few rounds of gap in between.

Jumping now to the end of 2008, Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins remain the top three short-stops in the game. They rank in the same order as they were drafted, but obviously a lot has changed. While Hanley and Reyes advanced their game, Rollins saw a huge drop in his production due mostly to a severe power outage. However, despite how much of a disappointment Rollins has been this year, he still was the third best short-stop and if you remember that he missed time early in the year with an ankle injury, his numbers don't look too far off from Reyes' comparatively.

Fantasy-wise, Rollins was still the third best short-stop in the game, helped mostly by his career-high 47 steals, but he wasn't ahead of a few other short-stops who will see their ADP (average draft position) rise significantly next year. The names with their ADP for 2008 in parentheses: J.J. Hardy (139), Jhonny Peralta (173), and Stephen Drew (210). I'm not going to give you their whole life story, but just a quick look at their past and what I expect from them next year.

Starting with J.J. Hardy, he was a 2nd round pick in the 2001 draft out of high school. He had a pretty steady path to the majors, which debuted in, in 2005. His 2006 was limited by a severe ankle sprain that kept him out most of the year, but finally in 2007 he was able to flash his talent. Hardy blasted 26 home runs in 2007, good for 4th of major league short-stops, and posted a respectable .786 OPS. Coming into 2008 however, there were still doubters of his ability and as a result he was the 12th SS taken in drafts. After a surprisingly good 2008, in which Hardy once again flexed his power muscles blasting 24 home runs, he also, more importantly, raised his batting average and OBP to .285 and .345 respectively. Any doubts remaining about Hardy were erased and I expect Hardy's 2009 season to be as good as his 2008 season, if not better.

Jhonny Peralta is very similar to Hardy in that in 2007, Peralta also kind of came out of nowhere to post a decent average and surprising 21 home runs. Coming into 2008, again similar to Hardy, most people weren't sure if 2007 was just a flash in the pan year for Peralta or if he was the "real deal". I probably should mention that in 2005, Peralta really experienced his breakout season, batting .292 with 24 home runs. Then came a down 2006, and then the solid 2007. As indicated by the 176 ADP previously mentioned, people still did not not believe in Peralta's .275 average, 20+ home run potential. That disbelief was unwarranted because in 2008 Peralta has performed admirably, and has been the 4th best SS in the game (fantasy-wise), just behind Rollins. Nothing about Peralta's game really blows you away, but I'll take a .275 batting, 22 home run mashing, and potentially 100 Run and RBI hitting short-stop in the 15th round of any draft. Do not expect to be able to take Peralta that late in 2009 drafts, as he won't be overlooked any longer.

Lastly, we'll take a look at Stephen Drew of the Diamondbacks. Drew is a left-handed batting short-stop (he throws righty), who was drafted 15th overall in the 2004 draft. His ascension to the majors was very quick, he took just 2 years, and was probably a bit rushed. Drew's first year in the majors was 2006 and in 225 major league PAs he performed spectacularly for a rookie with a .861 OPS. Because of that success, Drew was given the D'backs starting SS job for 2007. He. Played. Terribly. In 619(!) plate appearances, Drew hit .238 with 12 home runs and 60 Runs/RBI a piece. Talk about sophomore slumps. I believe this was the result of him being rushed to quickly to the majors, but that's just my opinion. Obviously after such an uninspiring season as 2007, there were many doubters heading into 2008. Everyone knew of his great talent and high ceiling, but people were afraid 2007 hurt his confidence. People were wrong. Maybe the D'backs brainwashed Drew to make him forget 2007, I don't know, but he has had one helluva 2008 season. Drew has posted 21 home runs, 91 runs and 65 RBI with a .292 average batting mostly lead off for a Arizona offense one would call lackluster. The talent and potential was realized into actual results and there should be no looking back for Drew in 2009.

So there you have it. In addition to the Big three of Ramirez (25) , Reyes (25), and ehhh yea I'll still include him, Rollins you have Hardy (26), Peralta (26), and Drew (25) establishing themselves as offensive forces in lineups. Not to mention Jeter is still playing, Michael Young had another solid season, and a player I briefly mentioned before, Troy Tulowitzki (24) looks to rebound from his abysmal 2008 and return to 2007 form. If you haven't figured out already, those numbers in the parentheses are the players' ages, so as you can see, the short-stop position has a wealth of young talent that figures to be around for quite some time.

References and Resources: I used a bunch of sites to get the stats for this article. Fangraphs was for the WPA/LI, and I also used their Leaderboards to look at the short-stops from year-to-year. I used Yahoo for the ADPs and also for some general player stats. For a quick check at minor league numbers I used The Baseball Cube.

Note: Just because the season is ending, does not mean my column will as well. Look forward to continued content throughout the entire offseason, every week. No, I don't get bored of this.
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