The Real Deal - 11/17/08
Each week I will pick 5 hot players from the previous week and review if their hot week will continue or if the are playing over their heads. I will try to find out who is real and who is not in fantasy baseball
I have given some time for some news to really get going. Not all of these guys are unknowns and most are the big names, but lets see if any of the off season happenings will affect their Real Deal Status for next year.
1) Nick Swisher
Swisher has been a favorite of mine and I expected a big breakout in 2008 in Chicago. That did not happen and the .219 average was a big let down. Now in NY how can we approach Swisher in 2009 drafts. Swisher is not an average guy and is in more of a Jack Cust mold where he will walk, strikeout or homer, but not at the Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard power level. He doesn't even seem to have Jack Cust power except in 2006 when he hit 35. Other than that year he has 3 seasons in the low 20's. I expect his average to be higher since he had a BABIP of .250, but don't expect it to be very good. He is a much better player in OBP leagues, but in 5x5 leagues he is more of a long shot and won't be worth the hype now that he is a Yankee.
2) Matt Holliday
Matt is definately losing in the help he will get from his home park. I still think he will be a valuable player, but if he drops to 30 or less homers will he still be worth the first or second round pick he will cost this year. I wouldn't look for Holliday unless he falls to the third round or the A's make a few moves to put more OBP guys in front of him.
3) Francisco Rodriguez
This is going to be one of the larger disappointments in 2009. I expect many teams will select him as the number one closer and way to early for a single category player. Did he have a great year? Of course. Can you look for another 60+ saves? Absolutely Not. Even if he ends up on a very good team like the Mets you can't predict a record season like that. So if he gets 40-45 saves with 70+ strikeouts is he worth any more than Papelbon, Soria, Lidge or Rivera? I am not a big fan of early closers picks anyway and I suggest caution in going for guys who only help in one category.
4) Randy Johnson
How many teams could take a one year player with a 3.93 K/BB and a FIP of 3.76. Bill James expects his ERA will be 3.40 in 2009. Whatever team takes him Randy should be your health risk for 2009. This is probably his last go round, but he should get around 12 wins and could get 200 strikeouts with a little luck on health. I would expect 170 to be a minimum. The most recent report has the Cubs inquiring which would be great for his wins.
Gonna try to keep you up on any trade or free agent dealings and what to change for your 2009 draft rankings. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
I have given some time for some news to really get going. Not all of these guys are unknowns and most are the big names, but lets see if any of the off season happenings will affect their Real Deal Status for next year.
1) Nick Swisher
Swisher has been a favorite of mine and I expected a big breakout in 2008 in Chicago. That did not happen and the .219 average was a big let down. Now in NY how can we approach Swisher in 2009 drafts. Swisher is not an average guy and is in more of a Jack Cust mold where he will walk, strikeout or homer, but not at the Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard power level. He doesn't even seem to have Jack Cust power except in 2006 when he hit 35. Other than that year he has 3 seasons in the low 20's. I expect his average to be higher since he had a BABIP of .250, but don't expect it to be very good. He is a much better player in OBP leagues, but in 5x5 leagues he is more of a long shot and won't be worth the hype now that he is a Yankee.
2) Matt Holliday
Matt is definately losing in the help he will get from his home park. I still think he will be a valuable player, but if he drops to 30 or less homers will he still be worth the first or second round pick he will cost this year. I wouldn't look for Holliday unless he falls to the third round or the A's make a few moves to put more OBP guys in front of him.
3) Francisco Rodriguez
This is going to be one of the larger disappointments in 2009. I expect many teams will select him as the number one closer and way to early for a single category player. Did he have a great year? Of course. Can you look for another 60+ saves? Absolutely Not. Even if he ends up on a very good team like the Mets you can't predict a record season like that. So if he gets 40-45 saves with 70+ strikeouts is he worth any more than Papelbon, Soria, Lidge or Rivera? I am not a big fan of early closers picks anyway and I suggest caution in going for guys who only help in one category.
4) Randy Johnson
How many teams could take a one year player with a 3.93 K/BB and a FIP of 3.76. Bill James expects his ERA will be 3.40 in 2009. Whatever team takes him Randy should be your health risk for 2009. This is probably his last go round, but he should get around 12 wins and could get 200 strikeouts with a little luck on health. I would expect 170 to be a minimum. The most recent report has the Cubs inquiring which would be great for his wins.
Gonna try to keep you up on any trade or free agent dealings and what to change for your 2009 draft rankings. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
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