Run Percentage, Run: Part II
Back in September, I wrote an article about runs and basically created my own statistic, one that measures the ratio of how many times a player scored to the times he was on base. Today I am going to release the numbers-- not that you could not calculate them on your own--so you can peruse them yourself.
www.mlbfrontoffice.com/outsidethebox.htm/run_percentage/run%20percentage.xls
There is the file; click, download, and save if you wish.
I will admit that Run Percentage is not tremendously useful in its barest form as I have it now. Just looking at the player with the highest R%, Nick Swisher, will tell you why. While naturally you would expect a regression back to the average R% next year, you cannot expect that anymore because he is a Yankee.
Finding team average R% would help make this statistic more useful, especially for players that switch teams in the off season.
Most statistics in baseball have other statistics that attempt to quantify luck involved in the first statistic. ERA has LIPS ERA and FIP. Batting average has BABIP, Line Drive Percentage, and Contact Percentage. Runs has no such statistic.
Runs, however, are dependent on the other fantasy statistics like Batting Average and Home Runs. So even if Nick Swisher's Run Percentage is likely to regress in the future, I am still expecting his Run total to increase in 2009 because most people agree he was unlucky in the Batting Average and to a lesser extent the Home Run department. And, also because of the move to New York I mentioned before.
Run Percentage should be something to consider if you do try and predict run totals for next season, though. One of many.
www.mlbfrontoffice.com/outsidethebox.htm/run_percentage/run%20percentage.xls
There is the file; click, download, and save if you wish.
I will admit that Run Percentage is not tremendously useful in its barest form as I have it now. Just looking at the player with the highest R%, Nick Swisher, will tell you why. While naturally you would expect a regression back to the average R% next year, you cannot expect that anymore because he is a Yankee.
Finding team average R% would help make this statistic more useful, especially for players that switch teams in the off season.
Most statistics in baseball have other statistics that attempt to quantify luck involved in the first statistic. ERA has LIPS ERA and FIP. Batting average has BABIP, Line Drive Percentage, and Contact Percentage. Runs has no such statistic.
Runs, however, are dependent on the other fantasy statistics like Batting Average and Home Runs. So even if Nick Swisher's Run Percentage is likely to regress in the future, I am still expecting his Run total to increase in 2009 because most people agree he was unlucky in the Batting Average and to a lesser extent the Home Run department. And, also because of the move to New York I mentioned before.
Run Percentage should be something to consider if you do try and predict run totals for next season, though. One of many.
