Saturday, January 24, 2009

Confidence Is Key

In case you are not aware, the MLB Front Office Dynasty League Inaugural Draft is underway. Bestowed upon me was the second overall pick. With the obvious choice in Hanley taken first, I was left with some interesting options. I could go with the conventional hitter--the one that would go second overall in a normal league such as Pujols or Alex Rodriguez; or even Wright or Reyes--but I chose instead a more, for lack of a better term, unconventional approach by selecting Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum certainly has his obvious good points: he is young, salary controlled for the next five years or so, and is dominant. While it was not completely unexpected, it was far from what was expected. It was a surprise.

Many times in a draft you will be forced to decide either to pick with conventional standings or with your own. Depending on the situation, sometimes I will make the "safe" selection, and other times I'll reach for my guy.

In this particular instance, the advantage I had was time. Pressured by a ticking clock I probably would have taken someone like David Wright, but with time I became convinced Lincecum is the best pick for my team, for my general strategy for this league.

In league with as many custom settings as this one, it is much easier to make that surprise selection. In a 5X5 roto league, however oftentimes you hesitate before taking the guy you want. And instead of taking Kevin Youkilis you wind up with Paul Konerko.

The key to being able to make surprise picks is confidence. You cannot be afraid of being criticized after the pick, and you have to know that the confidence stems from you doing your homework pre-draft. Confidence based on nothing is not the same.

I did my homework, and even though the pick brought out some warranted noise, I feel good about it. Without giving away of my strategy for the rest of this awesome draft, Tiny Tim allows me to keep many options open for later picks.

When you are in your draft this year and you are deciding between reaching for the player you want now, or taking a safe pick now and hoping your guy falls to the next round, in most instances I say reach for your player, but only if you are confident, and only you can know if you truly are.

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