The Real Deal - 1/19/09
Each week I will pick 5 hot players from the previous week and review if their hot week will continue or if the are playing over their heads. I will try to find out who is real and who is not in fantasy baseball.
1) Felix Pie - OF - Baltimore Orioles
Pie has struggled for playing time in Chicago and seemed to have a good shot at time this year with the ever fragile Bradley playing there. Baltimore has a full OF right now, but the team could decide to play Pie in LF and move Aubrey Huff to 1B and make Luke Scott a full time DH. Pie doesn't look to have a huge ceiling in the majors though. His average and OBP are low, but does have about 15/20 type talent in full-time AB's. He is the real deal, but don't expect an elite talent.
2) Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
Elvis is in the building, but again may not have full time AB's right away. The Rangers have gotten Michael Young to agree to move to third, but have made inquiries for Omar Vizquel to teach and share time with Elvis. His bat still needs work and he isn't going to have much power, but with 54 steals in AA this year he has great speed. He is the real deal if you need runs and steals, but he isn't worth drafting yet.
3) Garrett Olsen - SP - Chicago Cubs
Seems like a poor return for a player like Felix Pie. He has an average K/BB, but also a very poor GB%. This leads to a very high HR rate and many extra runs. His FIP in 2008 was 5.13 and he he dropped his K/9 dramatically this season. He did have some good numbers in the minors with a solid K/BB, but so far this has not shown at all in the majors. He is not the real deal, but still has some potential long term.
4) Todd Wellemeyer - SP - St Louis Cardinals
He had an impressive 2008 and was signed before arbitration by the Cardinals, but Wellemeyer was very lucky to have an ERA below 4. His FIP was 4.51 and in 2009 he will regress to an above 4 ERA pitcher. I would avoid him in drafts as he is not the real deal.
5) Alex Gonzalez - SS - Cincinnati Reds
He lost all of 2008 and you can't tell if the knee injury will ever let him be the same again, but after having a very impressive start to 2007 he finished with 16 homers at SS. He won't be drafted, but makes a good option of the waiver if your SS or MI gets injured. His average is likely to be poor though, so I don't think he is the real deal.
Make sure to see my other writing at RotoSavants.com
1) Felix Pie - OF - Baltimore Orioles
Pie has struggled for playing time in Chicago and seemed to have a good shot at time this year with the ever fragile Bradley playing there. Baltimore has a full OF right now, but the team could decide to play Pie in LF and move Aubrey Huff to 1B and make Luke Scott a full time DH. Pie doesn't look to have a huge ceiling in the majors though. His average and OBP are low, but does have about 15/20 type talent in full-time AB's. He is the real deal, but don't expect an elite talent.
2) Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
Elvis is in the building, but again may not have full time AB's right away. The Rangers have gotten Michael Young to agree to move to third, but have made inquiries for Omar Vizquel to teach and share time with Elvis. His bat still needs work and he isn't going to have much power, but with 54 steals in AA this year he has great speed. He is the real deal if you need runs and steals, but he isn't worth drafting yet.
3) Garrett Olsen - SP - Chicago Cubs
Seems like a poor return for a player like Felix Pie. He has an average K/BB, but also a very poor GB%. This leads to a very high HR rate and many extra runs. His FIP in 2008 was 5.13 and he he dropped his K/9 dramatically this season. He did have some good numbers in the minors with a solid K/BB, but so far this has not shown at all in the majors. He is not the real deal, but still has some potential long term.
4) Todd Wellemeyer - SP - St Louis Cardinals
He had an impressive 2008 and was signed before arbitration by the Cardinals, but Wellemeyer was very lucky to have an ERA below 4. His FIP was 4.51 and in 2009 he will regress to an above 4 ERA pitcher. I would avoid him in drafts as he is not the real deal.
5) Alex Gonzalez - SS - Cincinnati Reds
He lost all of 2008 and you can't tell if the knee injury will ever let him be the same again, but after having a very impressive start to 2007 he finished with 16 homers at SS. He won't be drafted, but makes a good option of the waiver if your SS or MI gets injured. His average is likely to be poor though, so I don't think he is the real deal.
Make sure to see my other writing at RotoSavants.com
Labels: Alex Gonzalez, Elvis Andrus, Felix Pie, Scott Olsen, Todd Wellemeyer
