Extra Innings

RotoGuide '09 Sneak Preview: How To Play Fantasy Baseball

2009-01-18T12:13:00.003-05:00

Fantasy baseball began as a solution to one of the most often uttered phrases a sports fan will ever say: “What are the (insert favorite team here) thinking? I’d be a better manager!” Before fantasy baseball, such a proclamation could only lead to drunken bar fights, but in the late 1970s fantasy baseball was born to remedy the problem. The roots of fantasy baseball are fairly well documented in the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker. The details include grown men scampering to the newsstand every day to check box scores from the previous night’s game. One can imagine the pain a New Yorker would feel if his star player was playing on the west coast and his stats weren’t even in the local paper because the game was on past when the paper went to print!

Then, along came the internet—it was a match made in fantasy heaven. Today, the constant stream of information make following baseball, or any other sport, extremely easy. Fantasy sports now attract over 20 million players each year, according to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association. If you’ve never played fantasy baseball before, the easiest way is to join a league online, but before you do there are some basics you should know.

The most basic league format consists of selecting a group of players based on a salary cap and attempting to accumulate the most points based on a standard set of rules (1 point for a single, 2 for a double etc.). Usually, you are competing against thousands of players to win a small set of prizes. More advanced games of this type often consist of an entry fee or fees for transactions. In this case, the winner would receive a larger prize at the end and there may even be weekly prizes for high scores.

If you’re looking for a slightly more advanced version of fantasy baseball, there are two basic league types. You can either grab a group of friends or engage in the frivolity with strangers over the internet. If you’ve never played before, you might want to start with the strangers before putting your reputation on the line with people you actually know.

The second thing you will have to decide is which scoring format you want to use. There are four scoring formats, but the rotisserie format is the traditional method. In the rotisserie format, or “roto” for short, each category is weighted equally. When one of your players contributes in that category (i.e. hits a home run), you get one unit—for lack of a better term—towards that category. If there are 12 teams in your league, the person with the most units in a category receives 12points, the next highest receives 11 and so on. Therefore, there are a finite amount of points actually available, and the amount can be calculated by multiplying the number of teams by the number of categories. The team with the most points at the end of the season wins.

The other three types are less popular but fun nonetheless. If you’ve played fantasy football before, you’ve probably had experience with the points format. In this league type, each category is worth a predetermined amount of points (i.e. hitting a homerun is worth four points, hitting a single is worth 1). The points are cumulative throughout the whole season and the person with the most points at the end of the year wins. The other two formats are head to head. Each week is considered one game. In roto head to head, each category is weighted equally and you are competing against one team in the league. If you beat that team in the category for the week, you receive one point. Points are then tabulated for the entire year and a winner is decided upon. In points head to head, each team has an opponent every week and whichever team has the most points between you and your opponent earns the win. Whichever team has the most wins at the end of the year is the winner, regardless of overall point totals.

After you’ve decided on a scoring format, there are a couple more decisions you have to make. First, you need to decide what categories you will score in. The traditional 5x5 categories are hits, runs, homeruns, stolen bases, and batting average (for the offensive players), and wins, saves, strikeouts, earned run average, and walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) for the pitchers. Other categories that are often included include holds and on base percentage.

Next, you will need to decide if your league will consist of players from the entire MLB or just the NL or AL. For beginners the entire MLB is preferable, but as you become more advanced, limiting players to only the NL or AL can add a more challenging dimension.

You will then need to decide how many teams there will be in the league and how many players (and what positions) each team will draft. Most leagues have a roster size of 26 to 28 players with three to five reserve players and 23 “active” players who accumulate points on a daily basis. Traditionally, these 23 active players include nine pitchers, two catchers, one of each infield position, one additional middle infielder (2B or SS), one additional corner infielder (1B or 3B), five outfielders, and one utility player (any offensive position).

Next, you will need to make the tedious decision of how many games played at a position it takes to qualify for that position in fantasy baseball. Some leagues choose one game played, but this makes many players eligible at many positions and takes some skill out of the game. Standard rules are twenty games played in the previous year or five in the current year, but rules vary by league.

After those decisions have been made, the fun begins. If you’re in a league with friends, you will need to decide on a commissioner to make sure everything runs smoothly and set up a league homepage online (this can be done for free through various websites). The commissioner will also help settle any trade disputes or any other problems that arise.

Then there is the daunting task of deciding on a draft format. There are three formats available. The simplest, but also least strategic, is a random draft where the computer assigns players to teams. Unless you want your season to be largely determined by luck, don’t use this format. The two more acceptable formats are a Snake Draft and an Auction Draft. Snake drafts consist of a randomly assigned order (1 through the number of teams) where the first team selects a player and then the second team and so on. The order then reverses in the second round with the last team selecting first. An auction draft is exactly what it sounds like—an auction for the players. Each team starts with a certain number of imaginary dollars ($260 is standard) and each team bids on each of the players. High bid wins the player.

After that, you’re set for the season. You can add and drop players through free agency through out the year, and although there are a number of rules you can add to make the game more challenging and complex, simple is best for beginners. Once you have some experience, you can create “keeper leagues” or “dynasty leagues”, but that’s another article. Have fun!

The Year That Changed Baseball

2008-11-16T13:21:00.004-05:00

Being a sports fan in November can be a bit overwhelming. Everything is happening, but nothing is actually being resolved. To be a sports writer with absolute freedom over your work in November is enough to make Stephen A. Smith blush.

The NFL is in the heart of the season, but far from the playoffs. College Football is gearing up for the bowl games but still lost in a format deprived of a playoff system. The NBA and NHL have just begun their seasons with nothing of consequence decided yet and baseball free agency is in full swing, but the best is yet to come at the winter meetings. There is one sport reaching its finish line, however. NASCAR’s Jimmy Johnson is bearing down on his third consecutive championship, but there’s no need to worry: I don’t plan on switching my attention to NASCAR—this is a baseball website after all.

But, this article is about none of the above. This article is about a topic that has been almost fully exhausted in print and for which I have no reason to write about. But, after all, it’s November and I have absolute freedom to write about whatever strikes me. The story of this article begins back in 1998.

Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire (feature left in a SI cover) were in a dead heat for the single season homerun title. All eyes, whether of baseball fans or not, eagerly flipped to the sports section every morning to see who had hit a homerun last night. The fact that two men were chasing the decades old record in the same year was the best coincidence to ever happen to baseball. But, as we know now, it wasn’t really a coincidence. Sports fans, media, and executives conveniently looked past Sosa’s and McGuire’s godly muscles and rather focused on the result. They even were named “Sportsmen of the Year” by Sports Illustrated. No one suspected foul play and everyone realized that the homerun race and revitalized baseball. The race was the best thing to happen to baseball in recent memory.

Years later….

BALCO
Barry Bonds
Human Growth Hormones
Drug Testing
Anabolic Steroids
The Mitchell Report

Now we know.

Or do we? How much does the public really know about steroids? The common perception is that there are two results if a baseball player chooses to take steroids: (a) The steroids shrink his testicles to the size of two small marbles and (b) The player’s muscles grow inversely proportionately to his testicles. Only one of which is true—and unfortunately for users, A is true. Anabolic Steroids do not swell muscles. You don’t simply pop a needle in your behind and watch as your muscles double in mass. It’s not nearly that easy.

What steroids do is make it possible for players to work out longer and harder. By punishing those with massive muscles (who took steroids) the MLB is, in effect, punishing those who worked the hardest at their job. Should those who work harder, and are willing to do what it takes to be the best they can be, really be punished for it?

There’s no doubt that players using steroids need to be punished. Steroids are, after all, illegal. I’m not arguing for steroids. What I am arguing, however, is that steroids have been good for baseball. Without steroids the 1998 homerun race could have never happened and countless profit since then would have been lost. Although steroids are often touted as “ruining” baseball, I’m sure that behind the scenes, the executives in charge of the budget in the MLB Front Office are grinning their way to the bank. After all, they know better than anyone how much money the MLB has made because of steroids. I’d be willing to bet it’s more than most think.

When Sosa and McGuire juiced up and started smashing homeruns, they did so for completely selfish reasons. I’m sure they never comprehended how they would change baseball. It’s well documented that Barry Bonds first began taking steroids after seeing McGuire and desiring the media coverage he received. McGuire and Sosa popularized various performance enhancing drugs and in doing so, revolutionized baseball training. The whole steroid mess can be summarized succinctly:

Sosa and McGuire cheated as they chased the homerun record, and I’m sure the MLB couldn’t be happier.

Harvesting Hope

2008-11-12T12:33:00.001-05:00

We’ve all heard the anecdotes about Billy Beane: managers afraid to make trades with him, finding gems hidden in his minor league system, bringing a written-off submarine pitcher to near stardom. Beane just has that way about him. He can take any minor league player, bring them to the majors, and turn them into a household name. The Athletics have been relatively dry on talent lately, but just having Billy Beane is enough to make a fan believe. Beane just has that ability to harvest hope by harvesting talent.

Or, at least I thought he did.

Has the world has caught up with Billy Beane? Admittedly, he was the first manager to take a statistics heavy approach to baseball, and for that he will always be remembered. But Beane’s lost his statistical edge. No longer is he the be all and end all of player scouting. Beane blends in. This became increasingly clear with the announcement that the A’s would trade away Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Houston Street for Matt Holliday. The Athletics, who had dealt away every significant piece of their franchise besides Street, traded away their last remaining valuable asset to get one of the highest valued hitters on the market—and an overvalued one at that.

If Beane honestly thinks he can compete in 2009 with Holliday, he needs to take another look at his franchise because last season he traded away Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Chad Gaudin for various prospects. And none of that came as a surprise, because stealing minor league talent from other teams is one of Beane’s greatest strengths—perhaps this is even a strategy he finds laughable as he steals future stars from unsuspecting teams. But trading away young talent for an established star is not Beane’s forte. Especially given that the established talent’s statistics don’t support his success.

Matt Holliday is the king of Coors Field. He played half his games in a stadium that has earned a reputation for creating offensive stars and ruining promising pitchers. Holliday’s home/road splits are so profound they’re enough to make even Ed Wade cringe—and that’s saying something. Over the past three years, Holliday has hit .065 points worse at home and he’s hit almost twice as many homeruns at Coors (62 at home to 33 on the road). It doesn’t take Bill James to figure out something is awry here.

I’ve been trying to find someone, anyone, who was willing to question Beane’s move, but everyone seems to think he has something up his sleeve. He is, after all, Billy Beane and this isn’t the first time he’s defied common baseball logic to make everyone else involved look silly. Then again, the A’s haven’t exactly been a baseball powerhouse recently. However, no matter how this trade turns out for the A’s one thing is clear: everyone is still afraid to question Billy Beane. Beane’s ability to harvest hope is very much still intact.

What, then, is Beane’s angle? I’ve heard this trade compared to a not-so-similar deal the Marlin’s made in 1998 when they brought in Piazza, only to trade him away a few weeks later. That isn’t going to happen with Holliday, but I believe this is Beane’s angle. Beane’s taking a calculated risk: slightly more risky than bringing in Piazza, as the Marlins did, and only slightly less risky than buying a lottery ticket. But, it’s a calculated risk nonetheless, and we know one thing: Beane is the king of calculations. Most likely, Beane sees Holliday as an investment. The A’s will owe Holliday $13.5 million over the next season at which point Beane will have a decision. He can either trade Holliday at the trade deadline and bring in a nice package of players, or he can let Holliday walk at the end of the year and take the two compensatory draft picks.

Beane’s ahead of the curve once again. Clearly he believes that the package Holliday will bring in at the end of the next year, in addition to the additional ticket sales and revenue that Holliday will provide during the season, will outweigh the package he’s giving to Colorado. The only question now is: how well can Holliday perform outside of Coors Field? If you trust his home/road splits, Holliday looks like a .300 hitter with decent power, but not the stud he was at Coors. Just how then does Beane believe that Holliday will be worth more in a year than he is right now?

Either way, this trade could revolutionize the way teams look at rental players. The A’s don’t fit the stereotypical profile of a team looking to rent a player. They aren’t in contention for the playoffs and this isn’t the trade deadline, but Beane’s new method isn’t about making the playoffs. It’s about rebuilding by renting a player, not for the stretch run, but for the first half of the season. A trade for a player with such pronounced home/road splits may not seem logical, but then again, Billy Beane is used to being criticized. He’s made his career out of going against traditional logic and he’s revolutionized the game along the way.

Understanding Statistics: Batting Average

2008-10-12T23:30:00.002-04:00

Over the course of the next few months, MLB teams will spend more money than most people make in their entire life. Their moves will be scrutinized and examined under a microscope by journalists everywhere. The professionals who make the signings spend hours deciding which players to pursue. What criteria do they use and what criteria should we use to examine the signings?

Last week I introduced the idea of statistical regression analysis in this article. This week, let’s apply the same concept to determine which statistics are the best indicators of success. The first, and most important, concept to understand is that all statistics are flawed. All statistics have inherent errors that make them imperfect indicators of a player’s success. Still, statistics are the best piece of insight we have into a player’s success. MLB players live and die by their statistics. The difference between a .280 batting average and a .300 batting average can cost a player millions of dollars. But, should batting average really have such a strong sway?

Batting average is the standard barometer of a player’s success. Every baseball fan understands that a .300 average is very good, a .270 average is decent, and a .250 average is fairly poor. Because fans understand the concept of batting average so well, it is commonly used to measure a player’s skill level; however, the statistic of batting average is extremely flawed. Batting average takes the number of hits and divides it by the number of at bats. The statistics measures each and every hit as exactly equal. A homerun is worth the same amount as a single. Clearly, there is a big problem in this unjust measured equality.

We know batting average is flawed, but teams continue to use the metric as a measure of a player’s skill. When you look up on the scoreboard, you commonly see a player’s batting average. All of the hype surrounding batting average begs the question: how strongly does a team’s batting average determine the number of wins a team earns? The following graph represents the correlation between batting average and wins. The graph is followed by the correlation statistics I discussed last week.

r: 0.337001
r squared: .113569

As you can see from the r score, there is a moderately weak correlation between a team’s batting average and the number of wins they had in 2008. In fact, only about 11% of a teams wins can be attributed to their batting average. Why should fans of the MLB place so much weight in a player’s batting average, when there is little correlation between batting average and a team’s overall success? There must be other statistics we can use, right?

I’m glad you asked. Indeed, there are. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be analyzing a number of other statistics using the same methods in order to determine which statistic is the best indicator of a team’s overall success and of a player’s true skill, but keep one thing in mind: all statistics are inherently flawed.

An Introduction To Statistical Regresion Analysis

2008-10-05T01:02:00.003-04:00

For some, October means playoff baseball. For others, October means its time for football. For even fewer, October means its time to start preparing for the next baseball season. Such is the life of a baseball analyst. Therefore, I’d like to kick off my 2009 analysis with an introduction to some statistical methodology I may reference over the coming months. I’d like to introduce you to a friend of mine: statistical regression analysis. Essentially, a statistical regression analysis allows us to determine the exact relationship between two sets of data. In many cases, determining this relationship will allow us to predict future performance. There are two key terms you need to know in order to understand the analysis that follows.

The first is Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient (there will be a quiz on this later), or more commonly referred to as r. r is the statistical measure of the correlation between two sets of data. In other words, r calculates the degree to which two variables are related. A strong r value is close to 1 or -1, a weak r value is close to 0, and an r value between +/- .3 and +/- .7 is considered moderate. Therefore, if two sets of data have an r value of -.9, they are strongly associated with a negative correlation. R is calculated using the following formula:

The second statistic is the square of r. The square of r is conventionally used as a measure of the association between X and Y. For example, if r squared is 0.50, then 50% of the variance of Y can be "accounted for" by changes in X and the linear relationship between X and Y. r squared is an especially important statistic due to the fact that just because two statistics have a seemingly linear relationship, does not necessarily mean they have the relationship due to actual variance in the two sets of data.

Hopefully I’ve explained these concepts thoroughly enough for you to understand the following example. After I’ve demonstrated these statistics in action, we can apply the statistics to a more pressing issue. First, let’s take a look at the relationship between wins and expected wins. Expected wins is a formula calculated as RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82)), where RS represents runs scored and RA represents runs against. The formula is calculated after the games have been played; it does not predict future performance. Clearly, there should be a strong, positive correlation between wins and expected wins. This would indicate that the formula is effective. The following analysis is for the 2008 season:

As you can see from the graph, there appears to be a fairly strong, positive correlation (i.e. the data slopes upward in a relatively linear pattern). Using the statistics mentioned earlier, the relationship is quantified as:

r: .920993
r squared: .848228

Clearly there is a strong linear relationship between wins and expected wins, as quantified by an r value of approximately .92. The r squared value of approximately .85 indicates that approximately 85% of the change in the expected wins can be accounted for by the change in wins. In other words, expected wins predicted wins in 2008 with approximately 85% accuracy.

The strong linear relationship in the above example was to be expected because the formula for expected wins was devised to predict wins. Now, let’s apply the same statistics to a different set of data. This time, let’s compare 2008 payrolls to 2008 wins. In this instance, an r value close to 1 would indicate that there is a strong correlation between the amount of money a team spends and how many wins they earn and vice versa. The following graph displays the relationship between the two sets of data:

As you can see in the graph, there appears to be a slight positive correlation; however, for the most part, the data appears to be random. This seems to indicate that there is only a slight correlation between how much money a team spends and how many wins they earn. Statistically, the relationship is as such:

r: .323286
r squared: .104514

The r value of .323286 indicates that there is a moderately weak correlation between 2008 payrolls and 2008 wins. Furthermore, the r squared value of approximately .10 indicates that only 10% of how many wins a team accumulates can be attributed to how much money they spend. Teams such as the Rays have proven that you can win without spending a large sum of money. Clearly, other teams such as the Yankees need a crash course in statistics.

A larger study of the historical correlation between payrolls and wins would be needed to illuminate any long-term patterns; however, for our purposes, this is quite an informative study. With the above statistics, we can begin to dissect the 2008 season and discover quite a few patterns that can help you while preparing for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.

Out With The Old And In With The New

2008-09-21T15:50:00.001-04:00

Baseball fans across the country shed a communal tear Sunday as Yankee Stadium closed its doors one last time. Fans who were in attendance witnessed a seven to three victory over the Baltimore Orioles—the Yankees 4,113rd win in the stadium (62.8 W%). As the stadium closes its doors and the franchise ushers in a new, high-tech stadium, it was fitting that Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees rising star, pitched part of the seventh and eight before handing off to Yankee mainstay star Mariano Rivera who seems to have been around almost as long as Yankee Stadium itself. Soon, much like the Yankees have closed the doors on Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be forced to close the door on their longtime closer Rivera and pass the torch to Chamberlain or another up and coming star.

Clearly, the current trend in the MLB is “out with the old and in with the new.” Fittingly then, the Rays also clinched a playoff berth over the weekend and the Yankees will be spending this October watching two division rivals in the playoffs. Even the Yankees, who often appear stubbornly set in their ways, seem to understand that gone are the days where trading the farm and paying for talent leads directly to the World Series. As the Rays have demonstrated, while playing cheap and homegrown talent, it is possible to win without an influx of cash. Perhaps the Yankees should spend less on player contracts and more on their scouting department.

Still, it seems the Rays may be ahead of their time. The past two off-seasons have seen huge inflation of contracts for star players. Players who have recently been signed to huge contracts include Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano, Torri Hunter, Juan Pierre, J.D. Drew and others. These contracts almost always spell trouble for the signing teams; however, the market has dictated that a lot of years and a lot of money are required to sign players of that caliber. Until teams recognize, as the Rays have, that there are other ways to win, player prices will continue to inflate to an unsustainable rate. With so much money locked up long term to aging players, the future of clubs such as the Cubs, Yankees, and other big-market teams looks bleak.

On the other hand, there will be a point at which the Rays can no longer afford their homegrown talent and the Yankees, or another clubs, will be happy to pay for the talent. At some point, however, the market will catch up with everyone and prices will have to deflate. Regardless of the long-term implications of the contracts, however, teams will again shell out large contracts this off-season. There are many high-caliber players set to hit the open market. Who could end up with a new team next year? Among others, Mark Teixeira, Rafael Furcal, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes, and Francisco Rodriguez are set for huge contracts.

The MLB off-season is the most exciting off-seasons of all professional sports. Ignoring baseball during the “off” months is a huge mistake if you want to have a successful 2009 fantasy baseball season. Here at MLB Front Office, we recognize the importance of the off-season. Unlike a number of major fantasy outlets who have already moved on from baseball to football, we continue our baseball coverage all year long in order to give you a head start on your competition. Over the course of the off-season we will come out with rankings, strategies, and more to help you for 2009. Be sure to continue checking MLB Front Office all off-season to make sure you don’t miss out on anything we have to offer!

The Ten Commandments of Keeper Leagues

2008-09-14T23:51:00.001-04:00

It’s about this time every year when teams are out of contention, but fantasy owner’s minds are still on fantasy baseball, that our advice inbox at MLB Front Office gets flooded with keeper questions. While I’m fully confident that our staff here at MLB Front Office is capable of providing you with answers to all of your questions, we—like the rest of the United States—can hire much cheaper labor in other parts of the world. Therefore, following the precedent set by corporations much larger than our own, we have decided to outsource our keeper advice. However, unlike corporations who are foolish enough to actually pay their outsourced employees in Asia, we’ve found an even more economically friendly way to outsource. Without further ado, I present to you the Ten Commandments of Keeper Leagues straight from our newest (and most geographically challenged) employee: God.

As it was spoken:

I am the Lord your God, who brought you out of the bottom of the standings, out of the ridicule of thy neighbor. You shall have no other Gods before me. You shall not read Mathew Berry for I am a jealous God, punishing those who listen to false gods. You shall listen to thy word and be rewarded for I am a merciful God, but do not make misuse of thy information for the Lord will not acquit those who misuse thy advice. For six months you shall labor and study my teachings and upon the sixth moon you shall be rewarded with a successful harvest of players. Listen to the Lord, for I will impart my ten commandments unto you:

10. Thou shalt not listen to the New York media whom covets thy own players more than any others.

9. Thou shall covet thy neighbor’s players and attempt to trade two players for one better player upon or prior to the completion of the season during the year 2008 AD.

8. Thou shall not covet your home team’s players more than those of thine enemy.

7. Thou shall understand thy neighbor’s intentions before choosing thine players.

6. Thou shall realistically understand if thy team has a chance of competing and if not thou
shall make a sacrificial lamb out of your star player and receive, in return, a young laborer with much upside.

5. Thou shalt not keep players whom possess much injury risk.

4. Thou shalt never, under any circumstances, keep a relief pitcher.

3. Thou shall show steadfast love to (and keep) mostly batters whom possess multiple tools.

2. Thou shalt not spend too much of thine budget (if applicable) on thou keepers.

1. Thou shalt not covet risky players at the risk of forfeiting thine best players to thou neighbor.

…And God said unto you, go and select your keepers, and so it was done and there was much rejoicing in the following harvest when those who had been faithful to God were rewarded.

Or, if all else fails, shoot us an email at advice@mlbfrontoffice.com and the staff who hasn’t been outsourced yet (Orris you’re next) will be happy to assist you in your fantasy baseball endeavors.

Hindsight is 20/20: A Look At Our Top Prospects For 2008

2008-09-07T21:57:00.002-04:00

Conor Gillaspie (3B – SF) was the first player to be called up from this summer’s first year player’s draft. We had the report over at Major League Report. So far in the minors, in just rookie ball and short season, he has hit .269 with zero home runs and 15 RBI in 24 games. He hasn’t done anything to deserve a call-up, but the Giants don’t have anything to lose. Regardless, his call-up got me thinking about prospects and I figured there was no better time than the present to take a look at our pre-season top prospects and see how they’ve played this season. You can find all of the analysis on them here.

1. Jay Bruce (OF, CIN)

Bruce came up at the end of May and was electric, but has settled down since then. Still, he’s had a solid rookie campaign. He has a .259 BA with 16 HR to this point.

2. Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

Despite a stint on the DL, Longoria has played quite well in the majors this year. He has a .278 BA with 22 HR to this point.

3. Cameron Maybin (OF, FLA)

Maybin hasn’t played well in the majors in 22 games this year, but he did hit .277 with 12 HR and 21 SB in AAA.

4. Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD)

In 18 games in the majors Kershaw has a 4.60 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 90 innings. He hasn’t played poorly for a rookie, but he hasn’t been electric either. He’s still only 20.

5. Joba Chamberlain (P, NYY)

He’s spent time in the bullpen, rotation, and on the DL, but however you spin it, he’s had a successful year. He currently has a 2.67 ERA with 105 strikeouts in 91 IP. He’s started 12 games.

6. Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS)

Buchholz has only started 15 games in the majors this year, and he didn’t play very well. He has a 6.75 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 76 IP this year. The K/9 ratio is good so the ERA will likely be better next year.

7. Colby Rasmus (OF, STL)

Rasmus hasn’t played in the majors this year and hasn’t played well in the minors. He’ll get his chance at some point, but the Cardinals OF has played well and he hasn’t, therefore, his stock has probably dropped some this year.

8. Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)

McCutchen has played pretty well in AAA this year. He’s batting .283 with 9 HR and 34 SB. Look for McCutchen to make an impact in the majors next year.

9. Homer Bailey (SP, CIN)

Bailey has been absolutely awful in the majors this year; however, don’t give up on him yet. He’ll slip a bit in the prospect rankings next year, but he still has the talent.

10. Adam Miller (SP, CLE)

Miller didn’t play much this season as he battled injuries, but when he did play he was electric in AAA. He has a 1.88 ERA in 6 games.

Those were our top 10 players. You can see the rest of the top 50 in our 2008 draft guide. As is always the case with prospects, some panned out and some didn’t. Most of these guys will make an impact at some point in their career, the question is simply when. By the way, #11 on our list was David Price. For continual updates on David Price, check out Major League Report’s “David ‘Price Check”

Blacks And Fantasy: Roto-Bias

2008-08-31T15:09:00.005-04:00

As a consumer of sports media and a writer myself, I often find myself digging a little bit deeper into articles than the average reader. Immediately after receiving the NFL preview issue of ESPN the magazine, one headline jumped off the page at me. The normal reader might first notice Mario Williams shattering the ESPN logo on the front page, or the fact that ESPN predicted the Texans to make the playoffs, or the ranking of the top bullpens in the major leagues; those headlines pale in comparison to the one tucked in the right-hand corner almost as if they hope no one will notice it: “Why Black Fans Don’t Play Fantasy.”

I half heartedly searched for the article, afraid of what I was going to find. The white majority in fantasy sports is not a new revelation—the FSTA (Fantasy Sports Trade Association) estimated 93% of fantasy players are white. Still, the subject is a little controversial in fantasy circles. No one knows exactly why black people don’t play fantasy sports (and let me foreshadow: the article doesn’t tell you either), but honestly, I don’t think the big companies really care. Here’s today’s typical fantasy baseball player: a mid-30s, college educated, white male with an average income of $75,000. That’s a pretty sweet target for advertisers. As we know, fantasy baseball is a multi-million dollar industry and, as the saying goes, don’t fix what isn’t broken.

Still, I hesitantly turned the page to the article. Of course, with such a controversial topic, ESPN had to find the most controversial writer they could: Stephen A. Smith. A little taken aback that he still has a job, I began perusing through the article. Smith writes:

"I’m not surprised to learn that so few blacks are among the 30 million people who participate in fantasy sports. I’ve always thought that a lot of these guys (and 96% of them are guys) are nerds desperately in need of more sociable leisure-time activities."

That right there is great unbiased reporting. If I sound offended by what Smith had to say, you’ve slightly misinterpreted my sentiment. I just don’t think Stephen A. Smith has ever done an ounce of unbiased reporting in his entire career (which, by the way, is far overdue to end). The Philadelphia Inquirer fired Smith earlier this year, and ESPN needs to follow suit. However, regardless of Smith’s bias, the article could be useful to us after all. If you read well into the article, there’s one interesting tidbit of information—from (whom else?) Mathew Berry:

“The people who play fantasy are more into sports, more hard-core than the average fan,” Berry says. “The reason the NFL embraced fantasy in such a big way is that it found that fantasy players watch three hours more football a week than the average football fan.”

In other words, a fantasy football player is likely to watch his home town team play, and the team of his star running back (or QB, WR etc.). In baseball terms, a fantasy baseball player will not only watch his home town team, but might actually watch a Marlins game just to see Hanley Ramirez swipe a bag.

There’s problem number one. The moment you turn on that Marlins game, Hanley Ramirez jumps from numbers on a piece of paper to a player on the base path. In turn, you attach yourself to the adrenaline rush you receive while watching Ramirez slide into second. No longer are you rooting for Ramirez to steal a base, but you’re rooting for Hanley Ramirez. You’ve left the realm of objective decision making and entered a realm that Stephen A. Smith knows all too well: you’ve just developed a bias.

Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying. You should watch baseball: it’s good for your soul. However, you need to remove as much emotion as you can from fantasy baseball. As we move down the homestretch, this idea becomes extremely important. Hanley Ramirez has been on your team the entire year. You’ve watched and cheered as he hit homeruns and stole bases. But now, you’re well up in all of the offensive categories and slightly trailing in strikeouts and wins—time to trade Ramirez. The owners that will have success down the stretch are those who can objectively look at their roster and recognize their weaknesses. Then, objectively trade the players they’ve become attached to because it’s what’s right for the team.

Success, in fantasy baseball, is not measured by emotion; it’s measured by statistics. Fantasy baseball is an entirely objective hobby that far too often is mistaken for a subjective one. Just as ESPN prides itself on objective journalism, you also need to pride yourself on objective team management. In your case it might mean trading away your favorite player. In the case of ESPN, it means firing Stephen A. Smith or at least taking away his column. Please?

Patience Is A Virtue

2008-06-16T00:25:00.002-04:00

Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, "Adopt the pace of nature; her seceret is patience." There are a lot of things in life worth waiting for. For example, waiting for that perfect someone or for the pie to come out of the oven. Either way, the reward can be spectacular. You may not always agree with the first one (if you're married), but the pie example is flawless.

In fantasy baseball, it's not always as easy to wait. It's a heck of a lot more fun to blow up your team with trades and start all over again. Watching your team at the bottom of the standings can be painfully hard. However, in the end, waiting can pay off if you drafted well and your team climbs the standings (as mine currently is in Pros v. Joes--knock on wood).

Today, I again ask for your patience. Extra Innings will be taking a short hiatus until the first week in August. At that point, EI will return in full strength. The rest of MLB Front Office will continue to operate at full capacity; however, Extra Innings will be taking a short break. Although I can't promise every reader a slice of pie, I promise it will be worth the wait.

Thank you for your patience,

Brad Stewart
Founder and Editor
MLB Front Office
Front Office Sports Enterprise

Recapping The Draft

2008-06-08T21:43:00.004-04:00

This week saw the MLB partake in one of the most under-publicized events of the baseball season: the MLB draft. Among the players drafted this year are some of the stars of the future? Who has star-potential and what teams picked a bust? I’ve got you covered because, in the information age we live in, knowing players before they reach the majors is essential to success in fantasy baseball. Without further ado, my player analysis from this Thursday’s first round:

1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin (Ga.) HS

Tim Beckham is perhaps the best talent in this years draft. He has five-tool potential and projects to be an eventual 2 or 3 hitter. He has a good, but not great, glove at SS, but a position switch to 3B, 2B, or CF would make him a plus glove. He has shown flashes of power which should become more consistent as he becomes older. He's an extremely polished hitter for a high schooler and one of the bright spots of a mediocre draft class.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Alvarez is one of the top power-hitting prospects in the draft this year. He turned down a high six-figure offer in the 2005 draft. He has a very quick bat and plus power to all fields. However, he has had trouble with left-handed hitters. In the field, Alvarez has an above-average arm at third, but may end up at first by the middle of his career. The biggest problem is his agent, Scott Boras.

3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

Eric Hosmer has a tremendous amount of power for a high school player. He struggles with inside pitches, but otherwise is an extremely complete hitter who hits for average as well as power. Hosmer could play right field, but projects as a plus glove at first base where he'll likely play in the majors. He touches 94 with a fastball in relief, but won't be used there. He's the top pure high school hitter in the draft, but is also demanding a lot of money.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Brian Matusz is an unconventional high round pick which will scare some teams away. Unlike Crow he has an average fastball and great breaking stuff. Due to this, he could have injury trouble down the road. Matusz's delivery is rough with jerky movements, but that's what keeps him alive. I'd be scared to draft him. Despite all of this, he's an elite pitcher in this draft and projects as a number 2 start in the bigs.

5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Posey is a converted infielder who has now found success behind the plate. Posey is a plus defender behind the plate and has good offensive talent as well. Together, they form one of the top talents in the draft. He doesn't project to hit for great power, but catchers rarely do. He has the upside of a number 2 or 3 hitter and is an extremely safe pick. He'll hit for a ton of doubles and a good average. 15-20 homeruns seems possible as well. Overall, his defense and good offense prospects make him a good bet to start in the majors for a long time.

6. Florida Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Rubidoux, Calif.

Skipworth is pretty big for a catcher, but with size comes some power. Skipworth is solid from the left side of the plate hitting for both average and power. Defensively, Skipworth has a strong arm but his accuracy and blocking skills are below par. Scouts believe that over time his defense will improve. As a catcher, his speed is naturally lacking.

7. Cincinnati Reds: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami

Alonso has shown great hitting ability with potential to hit 30 home runs in the big leagues some day. Alonso brings a big frame to the table, which slows down his speed but helps out his defense and power potential. The one thing slowing Alonso down is his weakness against left handed pitching.

8. Chicago White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Gordon Beckham's approach at the plate is a bit unconventional. He has good raw power for a small player and he has a solid approach at the plate. His defense, however, is good. He has a great feel for the game and good instincts at short stop. He has slightly limited range, but the pluses far outweigh the negatives and he should be able to stay at shortstop in the majors. He's very polished, but likely won't develop extremely farther than he already is. He'll eventually be a top of the order hitter with solid defense.

9. Washington Nationals: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Aaron Crow can touch 97 on occasion. He usually sits in the 90 to 94 range with okay secondary stuff. If his secondary stuff can develop a little bit, he could become a number 2 pitcher in the major leagues. His mechanics are solid but not spectacular. With a little work he can become very good. Overall, he's a great power pitcher and arguably the best pitcher in the draft.

10. Houston Astros: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

Jason Castro has a smooth swing and makes contact a lot. He has good bat speed and should hit for average at the major league level. However, his hitting mechanics lend themselves to his lower power totals. If he adjusted his swing, he'd likely loose the average so they probably won't tinker with it in the minors. He plays average to slightly above average in all facets of his defense and has a great chance of making the majors, at the very least as a backup. Unless, he can develop more power, he probably won't ever be an all-star, but he can be a major league average starting backstop.

11. Texas Rangers: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Justin Smoak is a switch hitting first baseman with a ton of power. He has good patience at the plate and good defense as well. It's a stretch to compare him to any player in the majors already. He's unique in that he has a ton of power from both sides of the plate and good defense as well. It's hard to compare him to a switch-hitting Albert Pujols, but that's how good he could be. In the field, he has a below average arm, but he'll be limited to first base anyhow.

12. Oakland Athletics: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami

If you know anything about Rickie Weeks (MIL) you know a lot about Jemile. Jemile is a speedy switch-hitter with a quick bat. He also has a better glove at second than his brother. Jemile's main problem is he wants to hit for power and it's evident in his swing. He'd be much better off trying to hit doubles than homeruns. He'll likely fix his approach in the minors and become a top of the order hitter in the majors.

13. St. Louis Cardinals: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

Brett Wallace might be the best pure hitter in the draft. He has a good swing and pitch recognition with good pull power as well. Wallace is a below average third baseman and might have to move to first base. Even at first, his bat is good enough that he can be a solid full-time player at the major league level.

14. Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS, Long Beach

Hicks has shown flashes of major league power, but currently is more of a gap hitter. Both his defense and speed are a big plus to Hicks’ stock. Hicks’ pitched in high school as well throwing in the 90’s which proves that his arm is strong enough to handle the outfield.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga.

Martin brings a tremendous low to mid 90’s mph four seam fastball with movement to the table. He often uses his hard curve as his strikeout pitch against both right and left handed batters. Martin may only weight 195 pounds but he is a big strong pitcher that is very competitive. One downside to Martin is his goofy windup, which some believe will need to be fixed in order for him to have success in the majors.

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Lawrie, 3B/C, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.

Brett Lawrie should make plenty of contact at the big league level and hit for average to above-average power, but he doesn't really have a position to play in the field. He could end up an offensive second baseman, but his bat doesn't play well enough at a corner infield spot. He currently plays catcher, but won't stay there. Solid bat, bad defense make a risky prospect.

17. Toronto Blue Jays: David Cooper, 1B, California

David Cooper has a smooth swing and some raw power, but has been largely overshadowed by other excellent infield power bats. He projects as a bottom of the order hitter who hits for more doubles than homeruns. He's a good defensive first baseman, but not good enough to move elsewhere. Overall, Cooper should turn into an everday player with a good average and limited power production.

18. New York Mets: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State

Ike Davis has excellent raw power, but struggles making contact with the ball because of poor plate mechanics. He could easily hit 30 homeruns in the majors if he can make more contact with the ball. Davis will need more work at firstbase, but has the raw talent to succeed there. Davis also pitches between 92 and 94 MPH, but his secondary pitches are lacking and he'll go pro as a position player.

19. Chicago Cubs: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

Andrew Cashner has an electric fastball which tops out around 98 MPH and a hard slider. Those two pitchs make him one of, if not the best reliever in the draft. He has a good build for a pitcher and could be used as a starter because he has three pitchs. However, his dominance as a relief pitcher will likely cause him to stay in relief and become a dominant closer.

20. Seattle Mariners: Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia

Fields has been touted as a dominant closer that could be working for a team out of their major league bullpen by the end of 2008. Some reports have his velocity topping out at 97, but many others have only seen him hit 95. Fields has a strong closers mentality and has shown the ability to pitch on a day-to-day basis.

21. Detroit Tigers: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona

Ryan Perry has some of the best stuff of all of the closers in the draft; however, he often locates his pitches too high in the zone which makes him hitable. Perry has good raw stuff, but won't make it as moer than a setup man if he can't work lower in the zone. If he can, he could become a good closer.

22. New York Mets: Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

Havens is a mediocre shortstop who may be moved to a different position in the minors; however, his bat plays very well at short. He should have average power and a good average. He does struggle against left handed pitching, but this is largely due to his approach at the plate which can be tinkered with in the minors. Overall, Havens is a bottom of the order major league player.

23. San Diego Padres: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

Allan Dykstra is a power hitting first-baseman whose defensive ability is limited. His bat might not even play at first-base in the long run and he may end up a DH. Overall, Dykstra is a decent prospect with good power potential, but he lacks a true niche in the field.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury (Conn.) School

Anthony Hewitt has plus defense potential in the outfield and offensive upside. He could end up a five-tool player who bats in the middle of the lineup. He currently plays SS, but will almost cetainly move to the outfield. Additionally, his offensive approach needs work. Hewitt has a ton of potential, but also needs a ton of work. He's committed to Vanderbilt and is expected to be hard to sign. A little time in college ball might do him well anyhow.

25. Colorado Rockies: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich’s fastball ranges between 88 and 92 mph, however his curveball can drop as low as 72 mph. His fastball and curve are his two best pitches, however, he compliments them with a changeup and cutter like pitch. His control is below par, but his stuff makes up for it. This strong throwing lefty could be a promising starter in the future, who some have compared to Joe Saunders.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona

Daniel Schlereth has a great fastball and breaking ball and honestly could be in the majors this year. However, his mechanics are sub-par and he's already had Tommy John surgery as a result. Schlereth will always have injury concerns but will likely pan out as a dominant left-handed specialist or set-up man in the majors.

27. Minnesota Twins: Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami

Gutierrez was a huge surprise this early in the draft. He has some injury concerns and has already had Tommy John surgery. He has good movement on his fastball and a decent slider that can develop. He can get guys out and could get to the majors quickly, but this pick was a big reach.

28. New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange (Calif.) Lutheran HS

Gerrit Cole is the best high school pitcher in the draft. He has a great fastball in the high-90s. However, his motion is a little unorthodox and his breaking ball is mediocre. Cole is commited to UCLA and signed with Boras so there are certainly signability issues. Minus the signability, he is one of the best arms in the draft.

29. Cleveland Indians: Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Pitt (N.C.) CC

Chisenhall is another big reach. He went to South Carolina before moving to community college. He has talent but has had off-field problems which is why he was forced to move to community college. He has first round talent, but the off-field problems are why he has been rated so lowly. This is a risky pick, but one that could pay big dividends.

30. Boston Red Sox: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota (Fla.) HS

Kelly has experience at both shortstop and from the mound, as well as at quarterback. If he can prove his hitting ability to be for real, he could blossom into an excellent baseball player. Kelly is strong defensively and has decent speed. His pitching abilities are above average, but he has little experience on the mound. The one big downside of Kelly is that he has a two-sport offer on the table from the University of Tennessee, and could go either way at this point.

If you’re interested in reading more about the draft, we covered the first round live over at Major League Report and the transcript from that event is available here. Does this group include the next fantasy-stud? Only time will tell, but at the least, this list will give you a place to begin.

Keys To Success: Closers

2008-05-31T15:51:00.001-04:00

What if there was one piece of fantasy baseball advice I could give you to guarantee success in your league? Like the holy grail of fantasy baseball, if you will. Well, there isn’t. However, there is an interesting feature on Yahoo! called Keys to Success. This is Yahoo!’s collection of the players that appear most often on the public top 500 teams in their database. Although many of the players on the list are obvious, such as Cliff Lee and Lance Berkman, there is one interesting pattern we can pull from the list.

The list is largely made up of breakout candidates such as Carlos Quentin and the aforementioned Cliff Lee; however, there are also a number of less significant players on the list. Namely, there are a number of relief pitchers on the list. Here are the relief pitchers that appear on the list along with their rank (as of May 31, 2008):

3. George Sherrill, BAL
5. Kerry Wood, CHC
6. Brandon Lyon, ARI
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR
25. Joakim Soria, KC
27. Jon Rauch, WAS
29. Brian Fuentes, COL
35. Troy Percival, TB
39. Kevin Gregg, FLA
41. C.J. Wilson, TEX
43. Houston Street, OAK
45. Matt Capps, PIT

What do these players have in common? Not a single one of them was drafted in the top 120 players in the Fantasy Baseball Expert League that I play in. In fact, only two of them—Street and Capps—were drafted before the thirteenth round, and those two are the last two players on the list. Soria went in the thirteenth round and then the next to be drafted was Kerry Wood in the 16th round. Eight closers were picked before Street and 20 relief pitchers were selected before George Sherrill—the top closer on the list.

Clearly we can see that the strategy of drafting a top tier closer is flawed in more ways than one, and we’re not talking about necessarily finding hidden closer gems. All of those players, with perhaps the exception of Brian Fuentes, were drafted in most drafts. In most cases being successful in fantasy baseball means finding a hidden gem or picking up a top prospect, but we can see here that staying away from top flight closers also significantly enhances your chances to finish well.

Waiting to select closers is beneficial for two reasons. First, closers are easily the most volatile position. Pitchers, in general, run a higher risk of injury than starters. Add the fact that closers lose their job at a higher frequency than any other position and you have a recipe for disaster. Waiting on closers minimizes the potential losses, but it also helps your team in another way. Waiting on closers means an extra pick higher in the draft to make your offense or pitching rotation more dynamic.

Imagine if instead of drafting Billy Wagner with your ninth round pick, you had selected James Shields or Alex Gordon. Dan Uggla was most likely available even later than that. My point is: you don’t need to find the breakout star late in the draft if you’ve created a solid offense and pitching staff early in the draft. In essence, just by ignoring closers for the first half of the draft, you gain an extra pick to spend on starting pitching or hitting that the rest of your opponents don’t have. Chances are the closers they’re selecting at that point may lose their job by the end of the season anyway.

Arguing with Duchscherer

2008-05-25T20:47:00.003-04:00

“After Saturday’s near-no hitter, there’s really no way to argue against adding A’s hurler Justin Duchscherer”

That was the sub-headline on the Yahoo! Fantasy Sports homepage recently. No reasons to argue against Justin Duchscherer? I can think of a few. Let’s break this statement down a little:

“After Saturday’s near no-hitter,”

I think this is the ultimate example of abusing a small sample size.

“there’s really no way to argue…”

Actually I’m about to do just that.

"…against adding A’s hurler Justin Duchscherer”

12,741 drops. That’s the number that was sitting next to Duchscherer’s name in the latest Buzz Index on Yahoo! So yes, I’d say people can argue against adding him.

Now onto the responsible reporting…

Despite Duchscherer’s red hot start during which he sports a 2.16 ERA with a WHIP of 0.98, the numbers are stacked against him. The first red flag should be the fact that Duchscherer, prior to this year, hadn’t started a game in the majors since 2003. If that isn’t enough you merely need to look at last seasons when he had an ERA of 4.96. And, if that’s still not enough then his age, 30, should be a good indicator that the success isn’t meant to last. Most pitchers break out around 26 or 27. Therefore, at age 30, he should be beginning to decline, not breakout.

Here’s my advice: If Duchscherer is still available in your league add him.

What?!? You just ripped the guy for almost a page. Wait…it gets better.

Hold onto the guy for the next start or two. If he pitches well, trade him right away. If he pitches poorly, take it as a failed experiment and drop him. Remember Brian Bannister’s hot start? If he’s still on your team, you held onto him too long and ended up losing out on a top notch player you could have received in return for him in a trade. Don’t let the same fate befall you with Duchscherer.

Here are a couple more sell-high opportunities:

Lance Berkman: Berkman may have appeared to have a relative down year last year, but if you look at the numbers it was really only a slow first half that hindered him. Now, he’s back stronger than ever. So strong, there’s no way he can maintain his pace. He’s a big enough name to bring in a huge bounty so trade him while he’s hot.

Chipper Jones: Kevin Orris might have a heart attack when he reads this, but yes, I am still proposing you trade Jones right now. Jones is bound to get injured at some point and he can’t maintain his ridiculous batting average even if he stays healthy.

Dan Uggla: We all knew Uggla had a lot of power for a second baseman, but this is getting ridiculous. Uggla will be solid for the rest of the season, but he can’t maintain his current pace or batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: Where did he come from? Before this season many fantasy players had never heard of him, let alone considered drafting him. He’s now ranked #8 in Yahoo!’s player rankings. That just reeks of sell high material.

Honorable Mention: Nate McClouth, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Church, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez.

Is The NL Primed To Become The Dominant League?

2008-05-17T12:13:00.000-04:00

As one of our readers pointed out, the latest Playing With Fire column featured only one NL position player (two if you include DH) in Kevin Orris’ list of “the best of the best” players so far this season. That information alone begs the question: is the dominance in the MLB shifting from the AL to the NL? Fox Sports ran an article on this a couple of days ago. If you click that link and read the article, you will see why clearly this topic needs to be explored further. Dayn Perry did a nice job dissecting absolutely nothing to make anything but a definitive judgment. However, making a definitive judgment at this point is quite impossible. If you want to know the answer you’ll have to wait a couple of years, but I’m going to take my best shot at answering the question with some actual numbers and sound logic.

As Perry pointed out in his article, the AL is 99 games over .500 in interleague play since 2004 and clearly has been the dominant league for quite some time now. However, even with the DH in the AL, the NL has clearly been getting more production out of their offenses this season. David Pinto broke down the stats over at Sporting News and concluded that the reason the NL has been getting more production is because they’re giving more at bats to better, younger players. He wrote:

This bodes well for the Senior Circuit in the long term. Not only are their hitters producing at a higher rate, but their ages are in the range where we can still expect them to maintain or improve their performances. Meanwhile, AL teams keep signing older players such as Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Torii Hunter to long-term contracts. Over the next few seasons, we may see some AL clubs do what the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies have done recently. Tearing teams down to watch young talent develop resulted in a high scoring National League, even without a designated hitter.

The point he makes is valid. The NL does have many more young players with talent than the AL. Although Perry’s article is incredibly inaccurate, the article did do a mildly adequate job of displaying this. However, what neither articles take into account is the idea that many of the young players who are currently in the NL will sign with AL teams. AL teams have been much more willing to shell out big contracts recently. Pinto makes these contracts seem like negatives, but in actuality, the contracts are what have kept the AL ahead of the NL.

However, there is hope for the NL. The recent patterns suggest that the NL teams are going to be a little more open to signing their young stars to big contracts. Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez have been some of the more memorable recent contracts. The Marlins did ship out one of their best stars, Miguel Cabrera, to an AL team but quickly signed Ramirez long-term after that. Furthermore, the Mets won the Santana sweepstakes this past offseason which took the best pitcher in the AL over to the NL.

Overall, although fans don’t like to admit it, baseball is a business. As the clichéd phrase goes: you need to spend money to make money. Perhaps the NL teams are finally learning this. That’s the only way for the NL to take control back from the AL. In the 1960s the NL was dominant because they integrated quicker than the AL. Now in the economic world we live in today, the AL is stronger because they shelled out more money. Once NL teams start shelling out the money, as the Cubs and Mets have begun to do, perhaps finally the NL will equal or surpass the AL’s dominance. Until that day, we are left to speculate on exactly the impact the DH has on the AL and how teams such as the Blue Jays would bode in the NL. The one thing we do know is: money makes the MLB go ‘round.

1918 World Series: The World May Never Know

2008-04-26T10:20:00.002-04:00

There’s another baseball scandal in Chicago, and this time it doesn’t involve the White Sox. However, the scandal does involve fixing a World Series. Should the Cubs’ World Series drought really only be ninety years long? That’s what Eddie Cicotte theorizes in a recently opened affidavit. Cicotte was a pitcher, and one of players banned from baseball, for the Chicago White Sox during the 1919 Black Sox scandal. In the affidavit, which now resides with a collection of documents from the scandal in the Chicago Historical Society, Cicotte goes as far as to say that the White Sox were inspired by the Cubs to throw the 1919 World Series. As the story goes, the White Sox were on a train to New York and the team was discussing the previous year’s World Series, which had been fixed. Some members of the Sox tried to calculate how many players it would take to throw the series, and just like that, a scandal was born.

While there’s no proof that gamblers actually got to the 1918 Chicago Cubs team, Cicotte is not alone in suggesting that something was awry during that years World Series. Harry Grabiner allegedly indicated in his diaries, which are now lost, that the series was fixed and Hugh Fullerton, a baseball columnist, suggested the same. If Cicotte and numerous other baseball figures are correct, the Cubs should actually be going on ninety years without a ring, rather than one-hundred. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves: Perhaps throwing the series has caused the drought.

Still, figures such as Cicotte remain in the minority on the issue. "What you are not going to find is something definitive that says who was innocent and who was guilty,” says Peter Alter, the Chicago Historical Society curator. The documents still refer mostly to the 1919 Black Sox scandal; the 1918 World Series is just a minor aside. Yet, the notes are an important aside.

Some people have gone as far as to suggest that many series prior to the 1919 Black Sox scandal were fixed, yet the 1918 series stands out because the statistics support the idea that it was fixed. The decisive game six was lost by a score of 2-1 on an error by Cubs right fielder Max Flack. During the series, the Cubs were picked off three times including twice during game six. Back during game four, the game was tied 2-2 before pitcher Phil Douglas lost control. He gave up a single, threw a ball behind the catcher, and then another pass ball on a bunt attempt which allowed the winning run to score for the Red Sox.

Although, there are statistics from the series that indicate the series was played fairly, or at least that not all of the players were in on the scandal. Most significantly the fact that the Cubs two top pitchers, James “Hippo” Vaughn and Lefty Tyler, pitched fifty innings over six games and allowed only six earned runs. When the White Sox threw the 1918 World Series, their pitchers—Cicotte and Claude “Lefty” Williams—were surely involved. After all, Cicotte made two errors in the fifth inning of game four and Williams had a series ERA of 6.63. The question becomes: Could you throw a series without the help of your starting pitching?

To quote a classic ‘90s TV commercial for Tootsie Pops: “The World May Never Know.” Anyone with direct knowledge of the 1918 World Series has passed on and we are left to speculate about what could have or should have been. The 1918 World Series was the last time the Red Sox won a series before 2004 and the Cubs drought could have been going on ninety instead of one hundred. The entire affidavit is set to be released to the public sometime in the near future, Alter said. But, even after the release, many questions will still go unanswered.

Can you imagine Eight Men Out by Eliot Asinof referring to the Cubs rather than the White Sox? Can you imagine the 1918 Chicago Cubs appearing from the rows of corn instead of Shoeless Joe and the 1919 White Sox in Field of Dreams? Perhaps gambling in sports was a bigger problem in the early days of baseball than we ever suspected. Perhaps the 1908 World Series, the last time the Cubs won, was also fixed. Either way, Cubs’ fans are looking forward to a successful 2008 and hoping not to make it one hundred years without a World Series, and why not? With the game the way it is today, things can change faster than you can say Kosuke Fukudome.

And Behind Door Number One...Brian Bannister

2008-04-20T08:33:00.001-04:00

“Lets! Make! A Deal!” was a popular phrase during the ‘60s and ‘70s as Monty Hall gave away fabulous prizes simply for picking the door with the prize behind it. Sounds easy right? Imagine this scenario: Your shown three doors and told that a prize lies behind one and nothing lies behind the other two. You are asked to select a door. After you do so, one door containing nothing (and that you didn’t choose) is opened. You now have two closed doors. You are asked if you would like to keep your door or switch doors. Which would you choose?

Most would choose to keep their door, either out of fear of switching away from the correct door or because of the assumption that the remaining odds were 50/50. Are they right? Two doors, one with a prize and one without, of course it’s a 50/50 chance. But, its not: The chance of originally choosing the prize is 1/3 (one prize and three doors) this equals the overall chance of choosing the prize if you stick with the door you originally chose. On the other hand, the chance of initially choosing a door without a prize is 2/3, and a participant who originally chooses a door without a prize always wins by switching their door. In either case, the host must reveal one door without a prize. In the case where the participant originally chooses a door without a prize (2/3 probability) the host must reveal the other door without a prize, thus leaving only the door with the prize to switch to. This leads us to three possible outcomes:

1. The player originally picked the door with the prize. The game host has shown one of the two doors without a prize.
2. The player originally chooses Door A which contains no prize. The game host has shown the other door with no prize.
3. The player originally chooses Door B which contains no prize. The game host has shown the other door with no prize.

If the player chooses to switch, the prize is won in that last two circumstances. If
he chooses to keep his door, he wins only in the first circumstance. Thus, you have a better chance of winning by switching rather than keeping your door. In other words, players who switch will win the prize two out of three times.

And behind door number one we have Brian Bannister. He’s the guy you took a flier on in that late rounds of the draft and has worked out better than you could ever imagine. Naturally, you want to hold onto him because, after all, how could you forgive yourself if you traded him now and he played that well all year? While the Monty Hall problem doesn’t exactly apply here, it segues well into the idea of selling high on your players even after you’ve fallen in love with them.

Don’t deny it! A man crush is nothing to be ashamed of. It happens to the best of us. I’ll admit it: I’m in love with Zach Greinke! But, too many times owners pass up great offers for their overachieving sleepers because they overrate them. Naturally you appreciate the talent of the players you drafted a little more than the others. After all, if you didn’t, you would have never drafted them in the first place. However, you must realize this and trade players at their peak, not after they’ve already crashed. Brian Bannister isn’t going to have a 2.42 ERA all season. Trade him while his value is at it’s absolute highest. That would be NOW. What are you waiting for?

GO!

Other Things You Should Know:

Sell High Candidates:

Chipper Jones: Kevin Orris talked about him here. As long as he plays he’s great but…he likely won’t be healthy much longer.

Raul Ibanez: Ibanez was ranked 140 by Yahoo! prior to the season and that was generous. He’s now ranked nineteenth in their system. He is the perfect sell high candidate.

Nate McLouth: McLouth had a lot of upside going into the season, but he won’t be hitting .384 all season.

Joe Crede: He’s great with the glove and inconsistent with the bat. On top of that, he’s had injury troubles for the past couple years.

Buy Low Candidates:

Jose Reyes: Most Reyes owners aren’t quite ready to give up on him and rightfully so. Still, they’ll likely be willing to sell him below the value they drafted him for.

Price Fielder: Prince finally hit his first homerun. He probably won’t be a buy low candidate for much longer. Act fast!

David Ortiz: A .141 batting average and two homeruns is not like Big Papi. Even if he doesn’t perform as well as in the past (which is likely) he’s still likely to improve.

Hunter Pence: He’s struggled thus far, but he proved he can play last season in the bigs. He’s got a boatload of talent and the season is young.

Does Spring Training Matter?

2008-03-30T21:23:00.002-04:00

With the regular season upon us and Spring Training a thing of the past, fans everywhere are asking the question: “What do the Spring Training results mean?” To the average fan, Spring Training stats don’t mean very much. The best record in Spring Training last year belonged to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the New York Mets. Did that predict in-season success? No. However, that doesn’t mean spring training should be outright dismissed. A couple of year’s ago John Dewan gave use this little tidbit of information:
A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.

As a fantasy owner this is extremely important. When you’re looking for sleepers at the end of the draft this is an important idea to keep in mind. The players in the chart below (click to enlarge) are those who fit the profile from the above statement.

However, looking back at previous years, we find that this rule is only effective to a marginal degree. We find that there is about a 50% correlation between spring training success (as defined by John Dewan) and regular season success. While certainly better than a shot in the dark, the rule is still not all that helpful. However, off special interest is the discovery that there is a higher correlation for success among younger players than older players. So, what players from the above chart are poised for success? It’s hard to tell, but here’s a couple who look primed for some sort of improvement:

Chris Snyder, C, Diamondbacks – Snyder has always had the talent, but he hasn’t always had the opportunity. This year he should earn a significant amount of playing time and can be a valuable #2 catcher on fantasy teams. In a standard format (2 Catchers) if he’s still on the waiver wire, he’s worth a look.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland – Sizemore has talent, no one’s denying that. However, some believe he hasn’t shown enough power to warrant a high draft pick in fantasy leagues. Sizemore has always hit for a large amount of doubles. If he can translate those doubles into homeruns (as many players do as they get older), he can become a fantasy baseball stud.

B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay – Many fantasy owners have written off Upton as primed to regress a little in his second full season, but the numbers say otherwise. He’ll no longer have to worry about which position he’ll be playing in the field which means a bigger focus on his hitting. He’s primed for a big season.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit – Many fantasy owners are shying away from him due to his recent injury. However, the injury represents a great buy-low opportunity. He already broke out last year, but the numbers suggest his best season is yet to come.

Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City - By now you have probably read a lot about Butler. Yahoo! did a huge feature on him not long ago. What’s important to realize about Butler is that unless he earns eligibility at another position, he’ll need a huge season in order to provide value from your UTIL position. Luckily for his owners, the numbers point towards a huge season.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas – Everyone knows Hamilton’s story. This isn’t the first time I’ve written about him and it probably won’t be the last. A number of experts are down on Hamilton saying he won’t be able to live up to the hype, but the numbers say otherwise. Hamilton makes a great third or fourth outfielder.

Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles NL – Ethier has two things going for him: 1) He finally has the opportunity. 2) He has the numbers in his favor. Ethier was recently awarded the right field job over Juan Pierre and he’s having an excellent spring. He could still be a free agent in your league. If he is, give him a spot.

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York AL – Cano’s power numbers have been trending up ever since he broke into the majors. He had 19 homeruns last year and is likely to top 20this year. Make Cano your second baseman this year and you won’t be disappointed.

As with most fantasy baseball rules there are always exceptions. This rule is just another guideline for finding sleepers. Keep in mind that this is in no way a guarantee for greatness, but it certainly improves a player’s chances.

Three-Pronged Attacks

2008-03-23T19:05:00.003-04:00

After Napoleon’s defeat in May of 1814 thousands of battle tested British ships were available for an attack on the United States. Their first offensive was via Lake Champlain which ended in September 1814. At the same time, the British were attacking through Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake Bay campaign was thwarted by the successful defense of Fort McHenry. Meanwhile, on the gulf coast, the British launched a third campaign to capture New Orleans. If the British could capture the key port city, they could control the Mississippi River Valley which would be a major bargaining chip in the war. On January 18th, the British retreated to Lake Borgne ending the Louisiana campaign. The Battle of New Orleans was the last major battle in the War of 1812. Ironically, the battle was fought after the two sides had already negotiated a peace treaty because word of the treaty had yet to reach Louisiana. The fabled three-pronged attack had failed. Nonetheless, the three-pronged attack remains a legitimate war tactic and today I bring to you another three-pronged effort: The Three-Pronged Attack on Fantasy Baseball.

We’ve reached the point in the fantasy baseball season where you’ve likely already drafted your team and are now thinking: What Next? Be patient my young Padawan Learner. We will get to that. As we have learned: History repeats itself. There is a lot we can learn from history. So, how did the United States defeat Britain’s three-pronged attack? On the night of December 23, United States Major General Andrew Jackson personally led an attack on the British camp that lasted into the early hours of December 24. Not only did he lead one attack, but he led three attacks. The United States defeated Britain’s three-pronged attack with, of course, a three-pronged attack.

The time between your draft and before you have a big enough sample size to truly analyze ability is a dangerous time for fantasy owners.

“Sample size, huh?”

I’ll get to that. Just understand that you’re as vulnerable as the British right now and your plan for victory is the three-pronged attack. And that brings me to the first step of our three-pronged attack:

PATIENCE

Every year fantasy owners get antsy when their stars are underperforming after the first week of the draft. Every league has one owner that drops a star player because he’s underperforming and if you’ve ever been lucky enough to be the first to the waiver wire, you understand that these stars usually bounce back and contribute the rest of the year for another team. Here’s where sample size comes into play. You can’t get a true feeling for a player until after about 75-100 at bats. Anything less than that and the statistics could just be an aberration. Consider the following:

Player A has 56 at bats over the course of 14 games to start the year. In each of the games he gets one hit. His batting average for the first 14 games of the year is .250. Player B also has 56 at bats over the course of 14 games. In 12 out of the 14 games he gets one hit. In the other two games he gets three hits each. Over the course of the first 14 games of the year Player B has a batting average of .321. Player B now has an exceptional average while Player A is looking like any player you can find on the waiver wire. In 12 out of the 14 games, these players brought identical value, yet one player is looking like an All-Star and the other like a bench warmer.

In one of Player A’s at bats the count was 2-2 and player A swung, but the third base umpire ruled that he checked the swing. He went on to get a hit on the next pitch. What if the umpire had ruled that he had swung and struck out? He’s now staring the Mendoza line square in the eyes with an average of .232. That’s right: One pitch was an 18 point difference in his batting average.

I think you understand the point: Wait until there’s a solid sample size before deciding what to do with your star players. You spent a long time preparing your draft strategy; don’t throw it away with one click of your mouse.

And that brings us to our second prong:

RESEARCH

Contrary to popular belief, the research does not end once the draft ends. Knowing how your players are performing is not enough. You need to know each of your opponent’s rosters as well as you know your own roster. Which owner is short on saves? Who has an excess of steals? Which players are expendable to which owners? When Ben Sheets gets injured (and you know he will!) who has an excess starter to trade to you? When you need to make a trade, knowing your opponents needs is the most important factor in finding a good trade partner.

Too many owners make the mistake of trading for the sake of “mixing up the roster” when they start performing poorly. When you make a trade there must always be a target in mind. Don’t trade to simply upgrade a position. Trade because you need to add speed, or you’re one power hitter away from competing. The most common questions I get from fantasy owners involve questions such as, “should I trade player A for player B?” My answer is always: It depends on you’re team needs.

Imagine that you’re planning for a camping trip. You go to the store to buy supplies and you purchase a tent. Once you’ve bought your tent you go home and a week later, right before you’re going to leave, you realize you need to buy fire wood. You return to the store only to find that they don’t have any firewood. Instead, you decide to buy another tent. You head out into the woods and once you get there you have two tents, but one sits unused. Meanwhile you are still freezing because you have no fire wood. Fantasy Baseball is the same way.

“Huh?”

Must I explain everything? The idea of excess is relevant to all walks of life. There is no point in owning two tents when you still need firewood just like there is no point to, in fantasy baseball, having more power than you need if you still don’t have any speed. Hopefully you can follow my strange anecdote because the underlying idea is supremely important.

ACTION

Action is defined as an act that one consciously wills and that may be characterized by physical or mental activity. As in: I’m hoping for constructive action by my landlord. In this case, you are the landlord and your players are your tenants. Letting your building (team) rot towards the bottom of the league (I don’t have a clever representation for this) is no one’s fault but your own. Action is required to maintain your team. It’s as simple as that. You must check your team as often as possible. Being the first to the waiver wire on the day that a star prospect gets called up can make all the difference. Many of my league-mates found that out last year—the hard way—the day that Ryan Braun was called up.

The third prong, action, may seem unimportant, but it is necessary for victory. Minor team maintenance can make a world of a difference. Leaving an injured player on your active roster is equivalent to forfeiting a pick in the middle of your draft. Would you ever pass on your eight round pick? I don’t think so. Yet, every year many owners make that exact mistake.

Each prong in this attack is equally important. What would a three-prong attack be with only two prongs? Many owners interest tails off after the draft, especially once football preparation begins, but remember all that time you spent preparing for the draft and ask yourself: Why would I waste all that effort with one simple mistake. Following this three pronged attack will not only help you avoid the mistakes, but it will also lead you to victory. If it worked for future president Andrew Jackson, it can work for you to.

Note To Barry:

2008-03-17T11:56:00.001-04:00

Sometimes there is sports news so important that it crosses the boundary of its sport. Sometimes there is sports news so important that it isn’t even really about sports at all. So important, the news is more of a humanitarian issue.

Brett Favre, we will miss you.

Favre retires with 61,655 passing yards, 442 touchdown passes, 160 career wins, and 253 games started. These statistics make Favre the record holder in each of their individual categories for quarterbacks and make him a definite first ballot hall of famer. However, Favre’s career can not be summed up with statistics. Favre’s departure means that not only does the NFL lose one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but they lose a great ambassador. 1991 was a long time ago; there are 16 years of NFL fans who have never known the Packers without Brett Favre. What happened over the last 16 years was magic. Before our eyes Favre transformed from the gun-slinging college boy to a gray haired – gunslinger. Brett Favre is what is right about professional sports in a world with so much wrong. Shaun Powell of Newsday recently went on a tirade saying:

Whenever [athletes] get busted for using performance-enhancing drugs or misbehavior or whatever, they come groveling to the public for forgiveness and manage to follow the same tired and transparent script. First comes the apology. Then they admit to making mistakes. And it's all a bunch of bull.

Truthfully? They're not sorry for what they did. They're sorry they got caught.

And they didn't make a mistake. That's what a third-grader does in math. They made a choice. There's a difference.

Brett Favre made a choice too. His choice was that no matter what the NFL was turning into, he was going to stay the same. Brett, we all owe you a thank you. Athletes everywhere could learn a lot from you. Perhaps what NFL fans really lost was a friend. Favre’s down to earth manner made you feel like anything could happen – and not just on the football field where he lead comeback after comeback. It’s fitting that the Packers franchise made such a great comeback in Favre’s last year. After all, it all started with a comeback back in 1992 when Don Majkowski went down with an injury and in came Brett Favre. He led the team to a fourth quarter comeback victory and hasn’t missed a start since. That is, until the first game of next season.

Brett Favre we will miss you because you showed us that not all athletes fit Shaun Powell’s profile. Brett Favre played because he loved the game. He would never do anything to hurt the game or his team. That Monday night in Oakland after his father died he proved to the world why he was so much more than a player with good stats. He proved to the world what football meant to him. And, he played a hell of a game too.

Kids everywhere aspire to “Be like Mike.” Well, Barry, I have just one thing to say to you: “Be like Brett.” If you were half the man Favre is (or had half the size testicles) you would never had taken steroids. They say that if Favre threw a baseball with the same force he threw a football it would go over 100 miles per hour. And he did that without steroids. Roger Clemens, take note: “Be Like Brett.”

Favre will be missed. He may not take the field as the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers ever again, but his spirit will live on in all those who play the game the way it is meant to be played. Those who are great are remembered. #4 has become synonymous with Favre just as #23 has become synonymous with Jordan. Barry what do you have, a ball with an asterisk on it?

Congratulations. Here’s a hint to those who want to be remembered: “Be Like Brett.”

In Their Minds

2008-03-02T11:49:00.002-05:00

Last week the MLB Front Office writers (well, 5 of us) invited a number of experts to participate in an expert mock draft. The draft was held on mockdraftcentral.com and was a standard 12-team snake draft. The draft results are now available in the draft guide. After the draft I asked the owners 3 questions regarding their draft. Below you will find (most of) the answers.

Cory Humes – Seamless Baseball

Your first two picks of the draft were spent on Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun. Had this been a real league do you think you would have been more hesitant to clog up the corner infield spot so early? What caused you to draft Braun here?

If this had been a real league, I think I would've hesitated even less in acquiring Braun---because in 20 games, if all goes according to plan, he'll be a fantasy outfielder. I wasn't concerned with positions at this point. David Ortiz is still a top-20 talent, and he's stuck at utility. I felt that I needed to get maximum value out of the pick, and to me, Braun provided that. My gut says he'll put up top 10 numbers in 2008, and to get that production at pick No. 24 is a boon. Power, average, running: What's not to like?

Was there a strategy behind drafting both Russell Martin (Rd 3) and Joe Mauer (Rd 6)?

It wasn't as much a strategy as the same sort of common-sense thinking that landed me both A-Rod and Braun: I saw a player at a valuable position who was still on the board later than I thought he should be, and so I snatched him up. In two-catcher leagues, the backstops going in the last few rounds are the true dregs of society. A second catcher’s spot counts the same as a starting first baseman or third closer does. I want to maximize value in each lineup position, and I think it’s easier, relatively speaking, to find quality contributions in the infield, outfield and on the pitching staff than behind the plate.

You drafted three straight closers from round 7-9, but didn’t draft your first starting pitcher until round 12. What was the thinking behind this and do you like the results?

My thinking was that you can always stream starting pitching, but there is a finite number of closer roles to be filled. After those 30 arms are off the board, you're left waiting for the first job vacancy during the season. My starting staff has a lot of upside, and if we were playing this league out, I'd be confident going into battle with Ben Sheets as my ace. I'd add and drop SP based on daily match-ups, hope that the relief corps holds down the ratios, and count on my offense to be as productive as projected. I'm confident I'd have a chance to succeed.

Brad Stewart – MLB Front Office (Questions asked by Cory Humes)

You drafted offense with your first six picks, but none of your position players will contribute much batting average. Did you make a conscious decision to punt that category, or was that sacrifice simply a byproduct of targeting power and steals?

The answer to this question is two-fold. I never recommend punting a category to anybody. That being said, sometimes drafting for power and average comes at the expense of average. I realized that this was occurring while I was drafting, and therefore, waited to grab Freddy Sanchez as my 2B. Obviously, one player can not rescue a lost category, but hopefully he can help. With that in mind, I think that drafting players whose stock falls because of a poor average can be an interesting strategy. If you are willing to sacrifice average, for example, Adam Dunn’s 40 homeruns can be a steal. That wasn’t my intention here, but that’s kind of how it worked out.

Your starting pitchers all have a significant amount of upside: How does the risk-reward dichotomy sit in your mind? Did you consider targeting a more established ace as an anchor for your staff?

As a general rule, I wait to take pitchers. And then, when I think it looks like time to take a pitcher, I wait some more. Pitchers are so volatile that spending a high round pick on a pitcher is more risk than I’m willing to take in the first half of the draft. That being said, after round 10, my whole strategy is about taking risks. Drafting high-upside pitchers has always been my strategy. That being said, I was aiming to take a more reliable starter at the top. Given the choice between Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay, though, I will opt for Hernandez every time.

Your catchers, J.R. Towles and Kurt Suzuki, have proven little at the major-league level. Where is the value in heading into 2008 with two rookie backstops in your starting lineup?

The value in heading into 2008 with unproven catchers is that I didn’t have to spend a high round pick on a catcher. Catchers contribute so little to fantasy baseball (with the exception of a few) that it is a pick better spent to wait and find a catcher that won’t HURT you, rather than spend a pick on a catcher that will help you a little bit. Towles and Suzuki are two catchers that I am targeting this year in the later rounds because both seemed poised for break out year. And, if they don’t breakout, they are easily replaceable.

Shane Huff – Fantasy Insider Online

One of your apparent needs is for more saves. What is your strategy regarding drafting closers this year?

The lack of closers, and as a result saves, was done by design. More so than any other category, saves can be picked up as the season goes on. Of course, this strategy relies heavily on getting information as soon as it is available, but often in a season a closer can either get injured or simply lose his job, leaving to door open for the setup man to take over. Utilizing this strategy correctly allows you to focus on other positions in early to mid rounds of the draft.

You drafted Hanley Ramirez with your first round selection and then sat back and didn’t draft much more speed. Do you foresee a problem with having all of your speed locked up in one player – especially one who is coming off an injury?

Yes and No. It's always a risk when you count on one player to fill the stolen base category, especially a player coming off an injury. If Hanley goes down, it's likely that the stolen base category will be lost with him. However, I wouldn't totally agree that I sat back on speed and don't have compensation were Ramirez to miss time. I expect Derek Lee to hit double-digit steals, Ian Kinsler to reach 30 with a full season of play, Nick Markakis swiped 18 last year and stands to do it again this year and Mark Teahen is a solid candidate for mid-teens in stolen bases. While none of those players are in the upper echelon of base stealers, they all will contribute to the category.

Your rotation is based primarily off of high upside players with a bunch of young guys and Johnson who is returning from an injury. Are there certain pitchers you are targeting at the end of drafts?

Absolutely. There is a whole list of guys to target late, you just have to decide whether you want to target #4 or #5 starters, or if you want to target #2, #3 starters who have lots of potential but also have health concerns. In this draft, I targeted players with high upside who also have a greater chance of getting injured. Take Randy Johnson for example. If Johnson pitches at 80 percent, that's likely going to be better than any four or five starter out there. Of course, you have to use your high risk/high reward picks sparingly, because taking too many such players can leave you in a world of trouble and at the bottom of your league.

Eric J. Seidman – MLB Front Office

You essentially threw saves by drafting only Jones and Pena. What is your strategy for drafting closers?

Though some may disagree my strategy for drafting closers is not to draft them. There is so much shifting in the position and, other than Wagner, Hoffman, Rivera, and Isringhausen, you are never assured of a certain set of results. There are always some up and coming guys that may end up with a high number of saves but why risk a pick on an unknown? I am not a huge fan of projections but rather a combination of what has happened and what I see - and I watch a lot of baseball. I want innings. Those with the highest amount of innings, save for Livan Hernandez, will generally have better ERA's and WHIP's. They are out there the longest because they are the most effective. The higher opportunity also allows them more opportunities to record wins and strikeouts. A starter can supremely help a team in the categories of W, K, WHIP, and ERA (4/5). A closer can really only help in Saves, with maybe ERA and WHIP (1/5 min, 3/5 max). The latter two stats are also ridiculous for a closer because they can balloon quite frequently. If a closer pitches 9 straight games, for 1.0 IP each game, goes the first 7 appearances without giving up a run, but then gives up a solo HR in game 8, and a three-run homer in game 9, he has an ERA of 4.00 even though he did his job 78% of the time. I want the guys who can help me in the most categories and closers are not them.

Despite needing five outfielders, you waited to draft you first outfielder until the 11th round. Was this your strategy going into the draft? Are you pleased with the results?

To quickly answer those two questions, no, and no. My strategy is always to get a 2B very early, as I did with Utley, because there are far less great players at that. After that I really just wanted to go with the flow and take what could help me the most at that specific time. I'm a huge pitchers guy and so I lost out on some outfielders by taking pitchers early on. I always wanted Pat Burrell and was glad to get him, though I feel I could have done a better job drafting them. When I began drafting outfielders I noticed that I did not have many steals and so I went for McLouth and Cabrera. Willingham and Diaz are two very scary players that may be better examples of good baseball players than good fantasy players but I strongly feel if Diaz plays an entire season he would hit around .315/.395/.470 with close to 20 HR and a lot of doubles. Other than a few positions, I generally like to take the approach that the contributions from some very reliable starters can outweigh mediocre contributions from the outfield. But, all told, if I had to do it again I would have waited on a 3B until later and drafted an OF in round three.

You reached for pitchers early and drafted pitchers in the 4th-7th rounds. What is your strategy concerning starting pitching this year?

My strategy concerning starting pitchers is the same every year - give me the reliable ones. I looked at every other team in our draft and I cannot find any that legitimately have a better starting rotation than mine. As mentioned in the answer involving not drafting closers, I want the guys who are going to be out there the most because, other than Livan, these are most often the guys that perform the best. My top five starters are CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Andy Pettitte. People can say all they want about Pettitte's psyche after these hearings but I am willing to bet money Pettitte wins 14+ games this year with 175+ IP and an ERA between 3.70 and 4.30. Rounding out my rotation are Dustin McGowan and Shawn Hill who have the potential to have very good seasons this year. Hill's achilles heel is health. Last year, he had one of the highest effectiveness pts/gm scores but his overall effectiveness points was not very high because he was not out there as often. I always see the key to starting pitching success as the guys who are out there the most. With the five pitchers in my starting rotation mentioned above I put myself in the best possible position to win pitching categories. It hurts in some other areas but I tend to think the opposite from what most will say - I feel that getting extremely reliable pitchers is something you cannot do in later rounds or on the waiver wire, whereas it will be easier to find outfield production later on down the road from some guys we've never heard of before.

Adam Cohen – MLB Front Office

Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 8th round seems like a little bit of a stretch. What do you foresee for him this year?

Yeah, I’ll agree it was a bit early. However, I really feel like he could have a nice season. I see him ending up around 15-18 HR, and probably 70-80 RBI. I wanted to build this team around offense and at that moment I felt I needed to have a solid catcher in place as to not boot a position.

Your starting pitching looks very solid at the top, but there are a couple of huge question marks at the bottom. What are your opinions on the pitchers you drafted from Willis down?

The pitchers I drafted after Willis would be Rich Harden, Hideki Okajima, and Andrew Miller. With Harden everything I have read said he was healthy and was not feeling any soreness after his bullpen sessions. He is listed as the #2 starter for Oakland this year and I felt that might help take some of the pressure off. I know he has an injury plagued history, but I made this pick as a high risk high/reward type move. Okajima I drafted to help lower my ERA and WHIP some while providing some good Ks. He is also the next in line to close should anything happen and with him pitching late in games on a great offensive team, the chance for 5-10 wins is there as well. Miller was drafted for Ks. I think in Florida he will be able to settle in. He is going to be in the middle of their rotation and therefore will not have added pressure. He has always been a good K guy, so that was the main purpose in me drafting him. I do think in that monster sized ball park he will end up with an era under 4 or one just slightly over.

Your first two picks were both players that were combo speed and power players. Was there a strategy behind this or did it just work out this way?

It is definitely a strategy of mine to always try and draft five tool players. They contribute in all categories so that always helps. However, this was more based on the fact that they were both there during my draft positions. Getting power hitters who can contribute in SB allows you to not have to waste a roster spot on speed specialist.

Tim McLeod – RotoRob

Looking at your starting pitching, none of them play for very good teams. Do you foresee wins being a problem for this squad?

My starting pitching definitely looks to be a tad light in the wins category. When you draft starting pitching from Toronto, San Francisco, St. Louis and Pittsburgh those wins could most certainly be a struggle. I generally don't place that much emphasis on the "wins" category when drafting a team. I look for pitchers that I believe to be relatively low injury risks, have reasonable upsides and the potential to post decent ERA,WHIP and K rates. The draft is simply the beginning or starting point and without a doubt were this mock to be played out I would attempt to build in at least two to three starting pitchers to my bench. By carefully using your bench and scouring the waiver wire one can create a situation where the 10-12 win pitcher does and can carry a very good value.

You drafted outfielders with four of your first five picks. I know this is a strategy that you employ often. What are the benefits of this strategy? Do you see any weaknesses?

Since back in December I've been experimenting with what I like to call "My all Outfield, All the time Strategy". In a standard format, five outfielders are required and heading into the 2008 season the outfield is most certainly not overly deep. I've found that by shoring up the outfield early the opportunities are most certainly there to provide for what I believe is a solid and balanced team. In this draft, I drafted four of my first five picks as outfielders and still managed to have a solid first base in Carlos Pena, my middle infield consists of Mark Ellis and Kelly Johnson, with Adrian Beltre and Garrett Atkins at the corners. My pitching is relatively high risk, but at the same time should at least with the 3 closers be a mid-level staff and with the offense provide a good opportunity to be a contending team. The biggest potential problem that I believe can occur is over-reaching to fill the position. It is fine to work on developing a strategy, but one also has to be flexible enough within one's plans to be able to recognize better options when they become available.

Carlos Pena in round 6 could be a great value. What signs do you see that he can repeat/not repeat last year?

Going back to those early years as a Detroit Tiger, there have been few doubts as to the power potential of Carlos Pena. It was the low batting average that limited his potential playing time. Whether Pena will bat 280 with 40+ homeruns in 2008 certainly carries its fair share of concern, but he did show the ability to perform at that level in 2007. My personal take is that a 35 homerun, 250 batting average for 2008 is more likely. By surrounding Pena with the likes of my first five picks, Crawford,Ichiro,Atkins,Granderson and Hart, even a regression into the 250 batting average range has a rather diminished effect on my team batting average and those potential homerun's could be a huge plus. In this scenario a more than decent gamble.

Knox Bardeen – Crooked Pitch

The first thing that jumps out is that you only have five starting pitchers and three of them probably won’t accumulate a ton of strikeouts. Was this planned or a late round “oh shit”?

I wanted to jump out and grab a few studs to anchor my staff. After that I planned on taking a LIMA approach. During the season, if this league played out I would be very active on the waiver wire for more LIMA options. Hopefully, I’d be able to keep my ERA and WHIP low with middle relievers while still racking up wins. I surely won’t finish at the top of the K’s category, but I won’t do to poorly in the other four pitching stats.

Your team has an elite amount of power, but could struggle in the speed department. If we were playing this league out what moves would you make to balance this out?

The easy answer is trades. I imagine it would be quite easy to trade some of my power for speed later on. My draft strategy going in was to build a team based on power and to really master the outfield position. That strategy doesn’t come without shortcomings though, as I know I’ll have to use transactions to balance my team starting around mid-season.

You had drafted your entire outfield by round 11. Were there any players after round 11 that you wish you could have drafted had you had an available spot?

As I said earlier, it was my plan to grab outfielders early. Taking a look at what happened in the outfield position after the 11th round there are a few guys who I wouldn’t mind having on my team. Michel Bourne in the 13th round strikes me first. His speed and run scoring numbers will be great this season as he bats leadoff for the Astros. Jeremy Hermida in the 14th, while an injury risk, has a bunch of upside and could very well break out this season. I’ve been targeting him in a number of my other drafts. Willy Tavaras in the 16th would have been nice for the exact same reasons as Bourne would have been. With as much power as I drafted it would have been very easy to take a Bourne or a Tavaras who will only help in stolen bases and runs scored.

Kelly Pfleiger – Fantasy Gameday

Your rotation is very high risk/high reward with Lincecum, Burnett, and Bonderman. What do you expect from these three players? We’re you happy with your rotation?

Yes, I do have a high risk/high reward type of starting staff with Hamels, Lincecum, Burnett, Bonderman, and Arroyo. I firmly believe in chasing strikeouts and not wins. So I expect my staff to pile up strikeouts while not killing me in other areas. I do anticipate Lincecum being the best pitcher out of the ones that I selected. I am also expecting Burnett to be hurt at some point during the year, but provide solid performances when healthy. I am also anticipating Bonderman to not be as awful as he was last year, and an ERA closer to 4.00 is more likely then not. Yes I am happy with my staff, but would be looking towards some younger pitchers possibly getting a chance this year.

You drafted Joba Chamberlain in the 17th round. What are your expectations for Joba in 2008? How long do you think the Yankees will keep him in the bullpen?

How could I pass on such a high strikeout rate pitcher in the 17th round? Regardless of if he stays in middle relief all year, his high strikeout rate can help any team. I personally think that Joba will remain in the bullpen all year and replace Rivera at some point this season, or at the very least, pick up 5-10 saves spelling him during the year. Those would be cheap saves to acquire from a pitcher that will boost other areas of your pitching staff.

Kevin Youkilis is your starting first baseman (Rd 16). Was it your plan to wait this long to draft a first baseman? What was the strategy behind this?

No, I was not planning on waiting until round 16 to take my first baseman. Drafting Kevin Youkilis as my starting first baseman was an “oh crap” moment. I lost Derrek Lee, Nick Swisher, and Todd Helton along the way, but did not worry. Ryan Garko was taken way ahead of what I was willing to pay, and Adam LaRoche was taken the pick in front of me. I also missed out on Conor Jackson by one pick in the 21st round. So throughout the draft I was using plan B, C, D, and then the Oh Crap I better take someone plan.

Kevin Orris – MLB Front Office

There were many other options in the outfield available when you drafted Manny Ramirez (Round 4 Pick 2). Do you regret this pick? What lead you to draft him here?

Approaching this pick I was really thinking about Byrnes. I had quickly made a few changes to the MDC rankings before the draft and only had time to move a few players. I wanted to stick to the list as close as possible, which is the reasoning behind quite a few of my picks. Looking back I should have taken Byrnes, but I didn't do so. The Manny pick ended up killing the rest of my draft, at least how I see it. I am not a big fan of drafting towards the back this year, unless it’s with everyday people.

Between Roberts, Soriano, Pence, and Ellsbury you have plenty of speed. Do you feel you still have enough power? If we were going to play this league out what moves do you think you would make?

I'm not the biggest Howard fan, but since he fell to me at 11, I had to do it. I think I have enough power, but I could use more. It's definitely something I would look to add to during this season though. Thankfully this was only a mock draft. As far as drafting the speedy guys, Soriano is lethal in Wrigley in the current Cubs lineup and any player that can steal a few bases always helps. Roberts is a guy I really like playing 2B, especially if he is moved to Chicago. I love Pence this year with the Houston lineup, and he is good for a few steals, but some people overrate his speed. Ellsbury has outbreak potential, and if he did so, I would look into trading him during the season to add more power.

You didn’t draft your starting 3B until round 21. Are you satisfied with Blake as your starting 3B?

I love Chipper Jones in this years draft and really wanted him, but thought it might have been a little to early. Looking back, I should have taken him in the 4th round, but that didn't happen. Blake is okay at 3B, but there are a lot of better guys. 3B is pretty deep this year, and I needed power in the later rounds. Blake seemed like a good fit to help add some home runs.

Hopefully this will provide good insight into what the experts were thinking while they were making the picks. ADP is great, but understanding why a player was taken where he was is even more important. We’ll have a similar wrap-up from our Expert Auction Mock Draft in the next week or two.

Life Is Like A... You Know The Rest

2008-02-17T11:45:00.001-05:00

Here’s a little glimpse into the life of yours truly; see if you can imagine it: At my desk sits my computer (I have a HP Pavilion Laptop for those of you who were wondering). On the left of my laptop sits a stack of old ESPN and Sports Illustrated Magazines which date back to the stone age and on the right of my laptop sits my phone, some old take out food, and a heart. This heart is the best kind of heart: It’s filled with chocolate from Valentine’s Day. As I reached into the box to grab another chocolate, I began to think. Fantasy Baseball is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re going to get.

Please excuse the terrible cliché, but the sentiment rings true. Therefore, today, I thought I would take a look back at the top 25 ranked players from pre-season 2007. There are a number of things we can learn from this list.

The players within the top 25 haven’t actually changed that dramatically. However, placement within the top 25 has moved pretty significantly which is to be expected. Baseball is not an exact science; fluctuation is bound to occur. Let’s take a look at those who moved the most and try to understand why they were valued so much higher last year.

Albert Pujols is the first person to pop out. He was the unanimous first selection last year and there was almost no risk in selecting him. Then, he had a down year which was marked by an injury. Recently, even more negative news has come out about his injury which has led to a sharp drop in his value. Fantasy owners tend to overreact. This was the case with Alex Rodriguez last year and Carlos Beltran a few years ago. Nevertheless, when it comes to an injury, you can never be too certain. The first couple rounds of the draft are about minimizing the risk, so you can make riskier picks later on. Drafting an injury prone star is not a good way to start.

Alfonso Soriano was extremely highly touted last season after his superb 2006 campaign. He could have almost lived up to the hype too, if he hadn’t been injured. Expect a nice rebound season from Soriano. I wouldn’t put 40 stolen bases and 35 homeruns out of the realm of possibility.

Perhaps the biggest lesson fantasy owners learned last year was not to overvalue starting pitching. Johan Santana takes a dive in this year’s top 25 because owners now realize how easy it is to fill out your roster with later round pitching and still succeed. Perhaps fantasy owners also learned, from Chris Carpenter, how risky it can be to draft a pitcher in the early rounds. Pitchers are extremely injury prone, more so than a batter, which makes them risky anytime before the mid-rounds of the draft.

One might think that fantasy owners would have learned from Alex Rodriguez not to get down on a stud after one “off year.” However, this doesn’t appear to be the case. Travis Hafner has dropped very significantly in the rankings this year due to his bad year last year. If you can snag Hafner around his ADP, you have yourself a very nice value.

Derek Jeter being drafted so high last year was a result of overestimating the value of consistency. Jeter’s consistency makes for a low risk pick in the beginning of the draft, but you also sacrifice a significant amount of upside. Jeter’s skill set just simply doesn’t play in the top 25 and he has been downgraded accordingly this year.

Overall, we can learn a number of things from last year’s top 25. Perhaps most important is that drafting pitchers and high upside/high risk players in the first couple rounds is just simply a bad idea. Take this exercise one step further and analyze your leagues draft from last year. What trends can you find? What can you learn? The results can really help you make the draft a much more efficient experience.

Predicting Saves? Good Luck!

2008-02-10T11:23:00.005-05:00

“The two most important things in life are good friends and a strong bullpen."
– Bob Lemon (SP Cleveland Indians, 1946-58)
The volatility of major league bullpens is an issue that will forever haunt fantasy baseball players. It takes approximately 100 saves to win the category in your average fantasy baseball league. This means that you will need 3 full-time closers to even have a chance of winning the category. While drafting three closers will have a negative effect on your strikeout and win totals, closers will help in the other three pitching categories (Saves, ERA, WHIP). When drafting closers one must take into account all factors, not just the number of saves they amass. However, closers most significant contribution is to the saves category. The question becomes, can we accurately predict how many saves a closer will have?

It is widely agreed by most experts that saves are the hardest category to predict. This has led to the exclusion of saves in some prediction systems, such as ZiPS. Other systems that do predict saves, simply take a three year weighted average. From 2006 to 2007, the correlation between saves (using the top 32 closers from both years) was approximately 45%. In other words, if you were to base your saves predictions off of 2006, on average, you could predict the number of saves a player will earn with 45% accuracy. Clearly this is not nearly accurate enough.

Because predicting saves with methods like the one above is so inaccurate, players often attempt to over compensate by finding patterns that really do not exist. The most common of these is assuming that a closer on a good team will have more save opportunities. The chart below highlights the records and save opportunities of the 30 ball clubs from 2007.

As you can see, there is little correlation between team record and saves opportunities. If we take a look farther back (I’ll spare you the graphs) this non-existent pattern remains, well -- non-existent. One theory that seems to make slightly more sense concerns teams run differentials. A team that loses or wins by more than three runs can not, because of the definition of a save, earn a save during that game. For this reason, one might conclude that a team with a low (positive) run differential would earn more save opportunities. I’ve now incorporated run differential into the chart you saw above:

Pretty much the only correlation we see in the above chart is between run differential and record, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks which is just a stunning anomaly. Regardless, there is no correlation between the amount of runs a team scores and the amount of save opportunities a team gets.

However, save opportunities isn’t a completely useless statistic. In fact, there is a lot that can be done with save opportunities. Because save opportunities inexplicably vary so much from year to year, we can conclude two things:

1 Teams that have more save opportunities than average can be expected to regress towards the mean the following year.

2) Teams that have less save opportunities than average can be expected to progress towards the mean the following year.

The following chart contains SvOp data from 2006 and 2007 in order to demonstrate this phenomenon:

The fourth column is the most important one. As you can see, only four teams that had an above average amount of save opportunities in 2006 did not show some sort of regression in 2007. Likewise, only five teams that had a below average amount of save opportunities in 2006 did not show some sort of progression in 2007. While predicting the amount of progression/regression is still quite hard, understanding the concept is incredibly important.

With this information in hand, the most important data to look at is not saves, but rather save %. In other words, not how many saves a player earns, but rather what percentage of save opportunities the player converts. This is calculated using a very simple formula:

I will be discussing the various uses of Sv% over the coming weeks. However, what is important to glean from this article is that SvOp and likewise SVs, while not connected to the overall performance of a team are not random. The regression and progression shown in the above chart demonstrate that there is a pattern, even if it exists only in the arbitrariness of the data.

To conclude, it is important to realize the significance that this information has on projecting closers. Closers that amass a large amount of saves with a large amount of save opportunities are likely to show regression the following year. On the other hand, closers that convert a large amount of their saves, but have a limited amount of save opportunities, are likely to show progression the following year. The save category, like many traditional baseball statistics, is an incredibly poor indicator of performance. With this information in hand, Sv% will become a much more efficient way to project closers.

What Seek Ye?

2008-01-20T11:22:00.000-05:00

A soccer coach of mine once told me, “Church? Who needs church? This field is my god damn church and this ball is my holy grail.” Church is defined as a body of people who hold and worship a particular belief. In that sense, any group of people who hold a conviction about something can be considered a church, more or less. Today I ask you to consider a question posed by Jesus to the apostle Andrew, “What seek ye?” I ask you to consider this question because in the many fantasy baseball drafts I’ve completed over the past couple years, it seems people do not consider the effects of their draft picks. The fantasy baseball community is so obsessed with player rankings that often times the underlying skill gets completely overlooked. Player rankings are only good until the point at which they are useless. Finding this point is much trickier than one might imagine.

The question becomes: At what point do you stop taking the best overall player and start filling team needs? Some people will tell you to take the best available player for the first three or four rounds. However, this is not the most efficient way to spend your money/picks. For example, if you draft Jose Reyes in the first round and Carl Crawford is the highest ranked player left at your pick in the second round, you need to consider the consequences of drafting him. Yes, you’ll be done with stolen bases for the rest of the draft, but how many true power hitters will be left in the third and fourth rounds?

This is not to say you can’t or shouldn’t draft Reyes and Crawford in the first and second rounds, but understand the consequences of your actions. What you’ll have between Reyes and Crawford is a very good average and a lot of stolen bases. How can you compliment them in the later rounds? The first name that should pop to mind is Adam Dunn. He’ll give you a low average, but a lot of homeruns.

The same strategy applies to the later rounds of the draft, possibly even more so. Towards the end of the draft you are simply filling your holes. Draft sheets are essentially tossed out the window. For example, if you need power you may choose to draft Khalil Greene over Orlando Cabrera despite the fact that, in a vacuum, Cabrera is worth more.

This essential strategy is what separates rotisserie fantasy baseball from points based fantasy baseball. In a points based league, you attempt to get the most points you can in any way you can. Rotisserie fantasy baseball requires much more strategy and draft preparation. This is also what makes points based leagues so much easier to create dollar values for. While experts attempt to put a dollar figure on all players, remember to take these dollar figures with a grain of salt. The Dollar values published in magazines are created in a vacuum. That is to say, they only apply to standard 5x5 leagues, don’t take into account league type or league size, and certainly don’t consider your positional needs.

Living by these dollar values or rankings sheets can kill your draft. The MLB Front Office Draft Guide has Juan Pierre worth $16. What this really means is that, depending on team needs among other things, Pierre can be worth anywhere between $11 and $21. One other reason these dollar values should be taken purely as a suggestion is because even the most advanced projection systems are less than 70% accurate. Even if you can maximize your projection system, the system is worth nothing unless you can improve the efficiency of your draft. The best way to do this is by understanding what each player brings to the table.

This idea is exactly what makes a draft guide like the MLB Front Office Draft Guide more valuable than the many projection only guides out there. Our 150+ pages (and growing) are not only filled with projections, but with player analysis from both The Fantasy Man of FantasyBaseballExpress.com and I. While I don’t suggest that you bring the whole 300 page draft guide to your draft, it is important to do your research and understand what each player brings to the table. Remember, you need to have a good base of knowledge before you arrive at your draft, if you don’t, you will be extremely overwhelmed by the whole experience. Draft day is the most fun day of the whole year, don’t ruin it by being under prepared and don’t rely too heavily on your rankings.

Mocking The Expert

2008-01-13T11:21:00.000-05:00

We recently completed our second expert mock draft for the draft guide, this time it was an auction draft. As promised, my results of the draft follow. A couple points of note before I begin, this was my first mock auction draft of the year and I clearly didn’t spend enough money at the top of the draft. I ended the draft with an excess of money. However, I also ran out of spots to fill towards the end of the draft despite there being players available I was still targeting. This leads me to believe that when I draft again, I should spend more money in less players at the top of the draft. Also, it is important to note that Kevin Correia was drafted by mistake when the time on my draft clock ran out and shouldn’t be touched in actual drafts (that mistake also accounts for why I only have two closers).

C: Geovany Soto – $3
C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $4
1B: Adrian Gonzalez - $23
2B: Freddy Sanchez - $3
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff - $2
SS: Troy Tulowitzki - $19
CI: Alex Gordon - $3
MI: Khalil Greene - $1
OF: Eric Byrnes - $26
OF: Alfonso Soriano - $34
OF: Adam Dunn - $20
OF: Alex Rios - $24
OF: Josh Fields - $3
UTIL: Billy Butler - $1
P: Tim Lincecum - $12
P: Justin Verlander - $18
P: Chad Billingsley - $10
P: Rich Hill - $12
P: Brett Myers - $4
P: Zack Greinke – $5
P: Kevin Correia - $1
P: Joe Nathan - $15
P: Jason Isringhausen - $8

Remaining Salary: $9
Total Salary: $251

I think the team I compiled here can certainly be a competitive team. I’ll talk on each player, going down the list. I was happy to grab Soto and Salty late in the draft for almost nothing. At first base, I probably paid a bit more for Adrian Gonzalez than he’s worth. In fact, I think the person bidding against me may have been driving the price up knowing I was desperate for a first baseman. I waited to the point where there were really no other reasonable starting 1B left. At 2B, I drafted Sanchez because he is a cheap option to help offset poor averages from Greene, Dunn and Fields. At third base I found Kouzmanoff and Gordon for almost nothing. Both will be good options next year. Kouzmanoff can repeat his numbers from last year and Gordon will certainly improve upon his. At SS I ended up with Tulowitzki and Greene. I was happy with Tulo at $19 considering Jeter went for $21. I value Tulowitzki higher than Jeter this year and he could end up hitting 30 homeruns next year based on his second half numbers. Where I spend my big money on offense was in the outfield. There a bunch of guys I’m targeting this year that will produce both homeruns and stolen bases and I grabbed a bunch of them. I also grabbed Josh Fields cheap. As I’ve mentioned before, he could hit 30 homeruns. A $1 Billy Butler is a great value late in the draft.

I was very happy with my pitching staff with the exception of obviously, Kevin Correia who I didn’t mean to draft. Correia’s spot would have been used, along with my other $9 to draft a third decent closer. As my starters go, the only person I think I overpaid for was Chad Billinglsey. However, that is not to say that I don’t think Billingsley can produce numbers worth $10. I just think I could have gotten a comparable option for less later in the draft, such as Adam Wainwright who went for $3.

Overall, my team has plenty of speed and a decent amount of power. The rotation should be able to compete with the best of them. The only major flaw is the lack of a third closer (see Kevin Correia). That's all for now. Remember: You can view the complete results in the draft guide.

Analyzing The Expert

2008-01-06T11:20:00.000-05:00

We recently completed our January Snake Expert Mock Draft here at MLB Front Office. You can find the complete results in the draft guide. We had two participants from MLB Front Office in the draft, Adam Cohen and I. Mock Draft Central was kind enough to host the draft for us. Make sure you check them out! My team follows (I picked 9th), with the round the player was taken in parentheses:

C: Geovany Soto (13)
C: Chris Snyder (22)
1B: Ryan Howard (1)
2B: Yunel Escobar (19)
3B: Troy Glaus (21)
SS: Michael Young (6)
MI: Stephen Drew (17)
CI: Josh Fields (16)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Eric Byrnes (3)
OF: Chone Figgins (4)
OF: Corey Hart (5)
OF: Matt Kemp (12)
UTIL: Frank Thomas (18)

P: John Smoltz (7)
P: Kelvim Escobar (8)
P: Roy Halladay (9)
P: Trevor Hoffman (10)
P: Jason Isringhausen (11)
P: Dustin McGowan (14)
P: Rafael Soriano (15)
P: Zack Greinke (20)
P: Micah Owings (23)

As you can see, I got of to a nice start and a good balance of speed and power with Howard and Crawford. I was happy to see Crawford fall to me early in the 2nd with guys like Johan Santana and Grady Sizemore going higher than I expected. Over the next two rounds I loaded up on speed. I was hoping to nab Tulowitzki with my fourth round pick, but he went slightly before I picked and I had to settle for Figgins. Having missed out on Tulowitzki in the fourth, I grabbed Young in the 6th.

Clearly, in this draft I decided to focus on hitting first and spent my first six picks on hitters. In retrospect I probably should have gone with a power hitter in the fourth round instead of Figgins and I ended up with not quite enough power coming out of the top six rounds.

In round seven, I grabbed my first pitcher in John Smoltz. He provided a nice solid anchor to a rotation of youngsters I anticipated on drafting. The less risk you take at the top, the more you can take at the bottom. At this point, I was satisfied enough with my offense to spend rounds eight through eleven drafting pitchers. I grabbed two guys to round out the top of my rotation and two good closers. With pitching as deep as it is this year, I think this strategy works well. You can get three top rotation guys in the 7th through 9th rounds and round out the rest of the rotation with high upside guys a little later.

In rounds 12 through 14, I grabbed three youngsters that I’m very high on this season. The best pick of my draft came probably came in round 12 when I nabbed Matt Kemp. This is a kid who can be a 20/20 player, but has gone relatively un-hyped in fantasy so far. Last year all the hype surrounded Rocco Baldelli’s potential to hit 20/20 and it vaulted him up into the upper rounds. This year, you can get Kemp lower and with less risk. I then grabbed Geovany Soto in round 13. I absolutely love him, but this is probably a little bit early. Then in round 14, I selected Dustin McGowan. McGowan has the potential to post an ERA below 3.60 this year.

Realizing my clear deficiency in HR and RBI, I spent the latter rounds of the draft on guys such as Frank Thomas, Josh Fields and Troy Glaus to add a little pop. In the end, I think my best pick was Matt Kemp in round 12 and my worst was Chone Figgins in round 4, especially considering I ended up using him at OF and not 3B. All in all, I am fairly satisfied with the team; although, it is still short on power. Next week, we’ll have some analysis of the Expert Auction Mock Draft.