Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

At least in my ESPN league, this is the last week of regular seeding. The top three make the playoffs, and if memory serves me, I've clinched the top spot and a first round bye. For those of you less fortunate, this may be the most important week of your season, so consider these options carefully and opt for a no-holds-barred approach with regard to pickups.

Monday: My only "^" is Gil Meche, and he faces the Rangers which is a no go. However, after perusing the days probable's, Jeff Francis is a good bet provided he is unowned against San Fran. That's about it though.

Tuesday: Derek Lowe at Washington and Scott Olsen at Atlanta are a pair of those guys I consider among my "extended roster". Lowe is one of the best spot starts of the week, posting a gem the last time he faced the Nats (8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). Most of the other pitchers getting the nod are up against tough offenses, though Greg Smith has a career 2.70 ERA against the Angels and last time they faced the young lefty went the distance, surrendering only one run. 

Wednesday: Greg Maddux has a career 2.44 ERA against Washington, which is absolutely meaningly considering the last time they faced was 2005, and I doubt more than two players on the roster are the same. Still, they represent a marginal pitcher vs. anemic offense that is always worth considering. Considering it is the only worthwhile start of the day, I like the pick.

Thursday: Clayton Kershaw is the final Dodgers' starter I'd spot, as he shut them down over six innings a few outings ago. Nick Blackburn went eight innings the last time he faced Oakland, giving up three runs. Not the worst line, but its likely to improve when he faces them at home where his ERA has been more than a point and a half better. Dana Eveland is on the other end of that match, and looked sharp in his first return post-demotion if you want to hedge your bets.

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

Again, we have another delay. The following week looks to be hectic as both Pete and I are in the "moving in" process. Also, I will warn that I don't expect a "day-in-review" tomorrow night since we will be busy playing a gig. Yes, blogging and pretending you rockstars isn't mutually exclusive (yet).

Friday: Dave Bush gets Pittsburgh at home, and I bet he'll get the win. He has a nice 3.15 home ERA compared to an ERA on the wrong side of five when he's away from Milwaukee. Gio Gonzalez is just a cool name to me right now, and I don't trust him unless you are desperate going against Seattle. 

Saturday: Jon Garland faces Minnesota at home and is a great option. Jeff Suppan faces Pittsburgh, which as you might have figured out, is always a good thing. Kyle Lohse heads to Atlanta, though he has pretty ugly numbers against the team.

Sunday: Joe Blanton and Ubaldo Jimenez are really the only decent options, though they are both playing at launching pads.

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

I've changed my plans in order to attend the Mets-Pirates game today, and I have a question for you guys. Has Santana lost his dominance? I'm going to the game simply to see who I've considered the best pitcher of my fantasy baseball (and Major League baseball) interest, though it occurred to me that his title could change as soon as next year. Which pitcher should go off the board first next season? Here's a list of which pitchers should come off the free agency list first this week.

Sunday: Mike Mussina at Kansas City is your standard spot start, so hopefully those who missed out on the last segment recognized him early (Is he owned in all leagues, by the way?). Gio Gonzalez faces the team from which he was nurtured, and since it's in Oakland he has a chance to make them regret the move. Clayton Kershaw, the other fantasy phenom, goes up againstthe  Milwaukee free swingers, and he'll face non-ace Jeff Suppan, the lesser option in the matchup.

Monday: Nick Blackburn, one of my favorite, goes up against Oakland in a good start to the week. Jon Garland faces the races, who are twentieth in team offense when facing a righty. Mark Buehrle against Seattle in a conventional plug.

Tuesday: Joe Blanton against Washington - conventional plug. So is Ricky Nolasco against the Giants and Kevin Slowey against the A's. Slowey will get Sean Gallagher, and so I'm not sure who to expect the win from. I'm hesitant to recommend starting both because I've seen game between young talents to keep pace with eachother, so you'll either get 14 innings of 3 run ball of 14 innings of 10 run ball. Darrell Rasner against the Blue Jays is an option in deeper leagues, though his career numbers against the team aren't lights out.

Wednesday: Scott Olsen gets San Francisco, and is a guy who could help down the stretch who might be available. Manny Parra at home against Houston is a good bet, though they were the first team he had lost to at Wrigley North (take that, Brewer fans). He's been shaky lately and the 1.49 WHIP is a lot uglier than you'd want, so I still consider him a spot starter.

Thursday: There is not one option. This hasn't happened before, but not one of my "spot starter" watch list is the probable to pitch. Any suggestions?

Schedules: Rounding out 2008

In a head-to-head league, the last two weeks can make or break an outstanding season. A bad match-up here, a poor game there, and the work of an entire summer can go wasted. How can you ensure that this won't happen to you? Be proactive in examing match-ups. Move hitters that are stuck facing good pitching in the second and third week of September. Trade for pitchers facing the likes of Washington and San Francisco during those last weeks. Here are a few players I'd seek out if I had the opportunity to make a trade.

Mets pitchers: If you can get Johan Santana, more power to you. But even if you can't, someone like John Maine (about to come off the DL) might be available for a modest sum. The Mets have six games with the Nats in mid-September, and a couple of starts against Washington (lowest OPS in MLB this year) would be mighty helpful during championship week.

Astros hitters: Houston plays 7 games in Pittsburgh (second-highest WHIP in MLB this year) during the second and third week of September. They do have to face the Cubs (fourth-lowest WHIP) and Marlins (eighth-highest WHIP) in between, but the match-ups with Pittsburgh should yield plenty of good stats. The Dodgers hitters also benefit from four games against the hapless Pirates.

Diamondbacks pitchers: Okay, I know it's probably impossible to get Webb and Haren. But Brandon Lyon should be available; Jon Rauch could pad your stats as a middle reliever, and Randy Johnson or Doug Davis may be free agents. With seven games in two weeks against the Giants offense, this group is in great shape to win a fantasy championship.

Finally, I recommend that you DUMP Boston hitters. David Ortiz has been abysmal since he returned from his injury. Players such as Youkilis, Bay, Lowell, Drew and Pedroia should all command some trade value. In the second and third week of September, Boston plays six with Tampa (second-lowest WHIP in MLB) and six more with Toronto (third-lowest WHIP in MLB). It's hard to imagine anyone from that lineup closing out the season with big stats while facing the likes of Kazmir and Halladay this September.

These groups have the match-ups that seemed most obviously good (or bad) to me, but there may be some individual players worth examing, as well. Ortiz, for example, has good career numbers against Tampa. Check your team now and try to swing one last deal - don't let a bad match-up ruin the work of an entire year.

Addendum: I wrote this post Tuesday before the Boston game. Their 17-run outburst nonwithstanding, I still believe the Sox will struggle during championship week. If you think you can win it all without a big week from the likes of Big Papi, though, hold on to your Boston hitters by all means.

Adam Dunn's New Home

So I was looking over some fallout from the Adam Dunn trade to see how it would affect me the rest of the season, and I decided I'd throw up the info for everyone to enjoy. Let me know if you think I'm crazy.

His schedule for the rest of the season plays out with exactly 22 games remaining at home (which is now Chase Field) and 22 games on the road (including 3 at his former home, Great American Ballpark). Dunn's splits favor Great American; his OPS is 60 points higher and he has more HR and RBI at home than on the road.

The Cincy slugger, however, will probably suffer from the move to Chase Field, if his past numbers there are any indication. It's a small sample size, for sure, but in 16 games there he has an OPS under .600 and only 3 home runs. Is some of that a function of having to face the Arizona pitching staff, which has been consistently good? His owners certainly hope so.

His road match-ups look better. He has six games in Colorado, four in St. Louis and three in San Diego, in addition to his three game homecoming in Cincy; his OPS is near or above 1.000 in all four stadiums. Unfortunately, during the fantasy playoffs in September, he has an ugly 7 of 10 games against San Francisco, and his numbers in AT&T Park are about as bad as his numbers at Chase Field. Dunn may provide some help getting you to your fantasy championship, but in H2H leagues I wouldn't count on him to put you over the top. Hopefully, not facing the D-Backs pitching staff will help him beef up those career numbers at Chase Field for this season, and we'll keep our eyes on where the free agent-to-be may be heading at season's end.

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

I've been trying to compose a list of "go to" guys when it comes to spot starting, though I feel it is so different depending on the league you are in. I'm not even referring to league size; I have two leagues with an equal number of players owned in each where the free agent starting pitchers are completely different. That said, certain players (Tim Wakefield being the only one that comes to mind) does come up frequently in these discussions, and I will try to note any others who I consider an extension of my roster with an asterick.

Monday: Dave Bush against Washington should be good though I'm optimistic that the Brewers won't win their sixth straight (entirely based on superstition and wishful thinking). Derek Lowe* against Philly is, at the very least, not in Philly. 

Tuesday: Mike Mussina is a guy I should consider more often, I mean his stats this year are ridiculous. A start at Minnesota should be good for his sixteenth win (last start against the Twins: 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 K). Jon Garland* faces Seattle at home, and should get the win. Clayton Kershaw has an ERA beneath two since being recalled, going 6 or more innings in his last three starts. He will need at least three runs of support, but I could see him earning that third win against Philly (Editor's Note: Commenter Wesley Warren pointed out Kershaw's risk, which led to the discovery he shouldn't be started as a lefty vs. Philadelphia). Garrett Olsen faces an Indians team that struggles (third worst) against southpaws, though the Orioles don't score too many runs away from home to back him up. Ubaldo Jimenez* faces Arizona at home, and while some of my peers never start a pitcher at Coors, Jimenez has a 3.10 ERA at his home park and a 2.77 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. Jeff Suppan pitches with Petco at his back, although the Friars have been putting up unbelievable offensive numbers over the past couple of days. Gio Gonzalez earned his picture in the strategic edition, though his start at TB presents a tough defense. Still, at home and against a middle-of-the-pack offense vs. lefties and bottom-third offense away from home, he's a high-risk, high-reward option. I would literally consider starting as many of these guys as you can fit in your roster in a H2H matchup as it will give you a huge advantage in quantitative stats while hedging your bets in peripherals.

Wednesday: I was wrong about Andy Sonnanstine last week, and facing Oakland at Oakland shouldn't be too much of a challenge (though he does face Justin Duchscherer, who is doomed to explode soon). Mark Buehrle faces KC, so it's a pretty traditional spot start. Joe Blanton at the Dodgers gives the Phillies a good chance to avoid falling 0-3 at the hands of the Dodgers in the purely fantasty world I've predicted.

Thursday: None of the Marlin's pitchers have done well against St. Louis in the past, though Scott Olsen has pitched well enough at home to warrant some consideration. Greg Maddux would need the Padres to extend their hitting ways further than I'd expect, though against the swing-free Brewers lineup he only needs to limit his own mistakes, which he's the master of. 

Free Agent Checklist

I'm going to try a new segment here on Rotonomics and you guys can tell me what you think. Basically, I'll check out the free agent batters list as provided by ESPN, and after browsing the Percent Owned travesties, I'll throw out a few names for discussion. The key word in that sentence is "discussion" with "travesties" coming in at a close second because it doesn't look right.

Chris Davis: I'm complained about him not being owned before, and while 83% isn't too shabby, I still think half the leagues that don't own him probably should. The guy has 11 bombs in 142 AB and he plays in Texas. Twenty-five percent of his fly balls have been homeruns! Sure, the average isn't real, but given the likelihood of another 142 ABs this season, he should easily reach 20 HRs. The average should decline given his low LD%, but he could be the difference in homeruns or RBIs.

Alex Gordon: At 68% owned, more teams are playing Casey Blake than Alex Gordon. Gordon came on strong last season, smacking eight of his fifteen homers in August and September. The Royals offense is a work in progress, but given the talent that progress could come pretty quickly, and I like Gordon to be at the center of it.

Lastings Milledge: Milledge has hit .293 over the past 30 days, and is batting .419 in August with four dingers so far. He's a poor man's Matt Kemp, representing a toolsy outfielder. However, he's owned in only 39% of leagues, and isn't getting the respect he deserves.

Adam Lind: Lind batting cleanup is all you need to know. His OPS in the last thirty days sits at .961, and he's hit .348 since being recalled from Triple A. Once Vernon Wells returns he will probably moved down a spot, but that offense could click quickly and Lind should be owned in more than the current 32% of league.

Billy Butler: Butler (23%) represents exactly what Davis does; cheap homerun potential on a developing offense. If the Royals were close to the Rangers, I would probably like Butler more due to his savant-like nature with a bat. Still, he's barely owned and should be considered.

And I'll toss up a few more names worth considering: Jim Edmonds, if only for all the games at Wrigley he will see in August, and Jesus Flores, if only for the scarcity of backstops this season.

Strategic Spot Starters: Strategy Edition

Yes, the title of this joke is a testament to my sense of humor rather than my poor titling skills. Ideally, this would have been a short post, but after further thought it's obvious that spot starting can make or break a week and deserves at least some serious contemplation. So lets get right to it, in a format that you might recognize...

Monday: You could make a very good argument that spot starting doesn't make sense on the first day of the week. That's true if you reserve the technique to playing catchup, which for some matchups is a fair reservation. How can you tell if your current week is one of those weeks?

• It doesn't need to be Friday before you know you've fallen back. Look at your matchups, and then look at your opponents. Sure, most league's don't let you look at future lineups of your opponent, but you should at least respect them enough to assume they won't miss a start. If they have a total of 12 GS and you're looking at 7, you're already playing catchup.
• Are their pitchers simply better than yours? A lot of researchers (such as yourself, as designated by simply reading a blog on your pastime) abide by the "offense first" rule of drafting. For some teams--like Pete's, just ask him--you simply have a ramshackle pitching core. If you're only prayer is to win quantitative stats such as W's and K's, you might as well throw out as many pitchers as possible.
• If you're facing a team you're most likely going to beat, don't bother. It's not worth the add nor the risk. It's easier to predict victories based on offense, so just compare your starting lineups.
• Then again, if the matchup looks like its going to be close, be prepared to add early. An early lead in wins and K's puts pressure on your opponent to make hasty decisions; just where you want him. And if it's an important matchup for your season, it's better to overplay than underplay. Winning almost every category could be devastating, while losing ERA and WHIP isn't going to cost you the league.

So what additions make sense? Guys that have a good chance to win are probably the best bets. Most guys with decent strikeout rates are owned unless their peripherals are so bad that they aren't worth the risk, neither to own or to stream. The Tim Wakefield's and Aaron Cook's of the world win this day, and the next.

Tuesday: Yes, Tuesday and Monday are pretty much the same deal, especially given the limited gameplay on Mondays. I think the only important distinction about Tuesday is that you cannot worry about the current score in H2H weekly matchups. I've been down 2-12 and eventually won 12-2, it's simply not the end of the world.

Wednesday and Thursday: Here is where everything comes together. I would add a pitcher out of desperation as soon as Wednesday, but would also continue to pressure my opponent if I had a lead. Wednesdays, and Thursdays for that matter, give you an opportunity to win or lose the week. Before this, you cannot win (but would struggle outright losing), while afterward it's going to take some brilliance to win while losing is probably a sunk cost. Consider everyone available and weigh their possible contributions.

Friday: Peripherals, except in very heated matchups, don't change much once the real weekend starts. Friday is probably your last chance to make a move on ERA and WHIP. Don't hesitate to steal a strong option from your opponent, as the gain is doubled by their lost opportunity. And if you've fallen behind, start streaming for W's and K's to salvage close to half the conventional pitching categories. Sure, New York at Detroit has an over-under combined score of twenty, but if you think Mike Mussina will give up seven to Verlander's eight, it's better than nothing.

Saturday and Sunday: If you've given up on peripherals, nothing changes. But if you have leads in most pitching categories, you have to watch your opponent. In the average week a pitching category was decided by three or four starts, and if they pick out three great ones on the weekend while you're ace chose an inopportune time to blow up, the tides have turned. On weekends and during important matchups, I never let my opponent start more than one additional pitcher each day than I am, they just have too much upside. That said, you have to have been the one to strike first, getting the ideal spot starter and leaving them to choose between John Lannan or Homer Bailey. 

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

So, we won some and we lost some in the last segment, which you'll have. I'm interested to see how Sonnanstine does tonight, since a couple of you guys thought he might be a decent option. I'll guess his line at 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H/3 BB/3 K. In the meantime, I'll look ahead and see what's coming up. Also, tomorrow I plan on writing a short post on Spot Start Strategy since it's in demand.

Friday: Ricky Nolasco struck out 8 Mets in 6 innings two starts ago, and faces them at Shea tomorrow. In his most recent outing, he fanned lucky thirteen, so this is an intriguing NL East showdown. Jeremy Guthrie is coming off a string of solid starts, and his 3.69 home ERA could suppress the frightening Texas offense. As a rule, I never start anyone at the Ballpark at Arlington, but back at Camden Yards Guthrie has some upside. Kevin Slowey has one complete game shutout sandwiched between four terrible outings, and while KC is a nice spot start team, I don't trust the youngster on the road.

Saturday: Hiroki Kuroda at San Francisco would be a lot more appealing if he hadn't been rocked by them the last time the two faced, though I don't think that offense can get the better of him twice in a row. Scott Olsen against the Mets is worth considering if Nolasco proves that the Fish know how to pitch in New York; otherwise I'd shy away.

Sunday: Manny Parra has a couple reasons to pitch well at home against Washington, but the most compelling is probably avoiding the wrathful appetite of Prince Fielder. You'd think he'd be owned, but he's still available in two of my leagues...

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

Based on the referendum so far on The Day in Review, it is currently discontinued unless we hear from you guys in exchange for definite "Editorial" or "Tool" type posts every day. I think that Rotonomics offers some of the best innovative ideas on a regular basis of any Fantasy Baseball site, and feel that we have compromised a bit of our quality for quantity. Because of this, it will be tough to get frequent "2+ a day viewers", so if you guys have leagues with message boards please recommend the site. Also, COMMENT!. I don't know about you, but checking back for responses brings me back to the same site regularly, and you won't get "Washburned" (loved the pun).

Monday: Greg Smith dominated the Jays last time out, but it's a risky move given his recent struggles. Parra is also on probation for me, and Great American Ballpark isn't the best field to get your footing. Truthfully, Chris Carpenter is the only player available in any of my leagues that's worth starting, but he shouldn't be available in yours (if he is, grab him now or forever hold your peace).

Tuesday: I love Sean Gallagher, but will I start him against Toronto? Yep. Jon Garland facing Baltimore ain't too shabby, as the orange birds are patchy on the road.

Wednesday: Ubaldo Jimenez and Derek Lowe ought to be owned, but if not, pick up both for their starts against Washington and St. Louis. At least one of those games should deliver the W while neither should get blown out. Nick Blackburn at Seattle and Tim Wakefield at Kansas City are traditional "marginal pitcher against team filled with marginal players" matchups that I like.

Thursday: I like Clayton Kershaw as that upside add who could strike out seven if he'd only pitch five or more innings. Unfortunately, he goes up against Kyle Lohse, who hasn't been flashy but gets the job done (7-1 at home this year, sub-3.00 ERA). Since there is no one else available, you could try both, but the risk versus frustration of not getting the win in such arrangements is a slight deterrent. 

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

First, I'd like to ask all readers to comment on the usefulness of these posts. I could continue them, or instead come up with something else, but the scarce resource is time so its a bit of a balancing act. I have not found a comparable tool on other blogs, so figured it fit a nice niche, but was curious if you agreed. Let me know, and in the meantime, I'll look at some matchups...

Friday: Jeff Suppan isn't my favorite pitcher, but he faces off against a Teixeira-less and Chipper-less Braves who should struggle offensively from here on out. Nick Blackburn's last start against the Indians? Well, it was actually his most recent start, where he went seven innings of one-run ball. Homer Bailey is a pretty big risk, as the "homer" in "homer friendly Great American Ballpark" certainly doesn't express any fondness for the righty. Still, facing the Nationals away from the park is a rare opportunity for a quality start. Tim Wakefield faces Justin Duchscherer, who recently showed that he is mortal, giving the Red Sox a good chance for a win and Wakefield a young lineup to feast on. Clayton Kershaw and Garrett Olsen also have good matchups, facing Arizona at home and Seattle on the road.

Saturday: Ricky Nolasco knows how to pitch against Colorado (career .93 ERA), and gets to face them at home backed by a streaking offense. Jeremy Guthrie should have some luck against Seattle, but basically doesn't need it. Kevin Slowey, coming off the complete game shutout, hasn't exactly impressed against Cleveland so far this season.

Sunday: As you probably guessed, Sunday is slow based on the plethora of early weekend options. Daniel Cabrera, like his teammates, should do decently at Safeco. I'd rather start Greg Maddux though, facing SF at home.

Strategic Spot Starters: Special Edition

You've all been waiting for this--the "special edition" of our Strategic Spot Starters segment. Granted, it is only special because it runs Thursday through Sunday, so yes, the word "special" was blatant pandering to try to accumulate viewers. I'd like to blame CNN for infecting my vocabulary with the word pandering.

Thursday: Kyle Lohse gets San Diego at home, and they are pretty much my favorite spot start opponent. Two notes though; first, I personally would never play any of the Cardinals; Second, San Diego is the only team whose entire starting lineup I cannot name position-by-position. They are that un-noteworthy. Ubaldo Jimenez is a risky start against Pittsburgh at Coors, but is worth the nod if you are in head-to-head leagues and your opponent lucked into a stacked short week.

Friday: Mike Mussina is having a solid bounceback season, and I like his chances at home against Oakland. Another veteran, Greg Maddux, is nothing if not an intelligent pitcher, and probably knows how to pitch to the Cardinals after 56 career starts (26-20, with a 2.74 ERA). Hiroki Kuroda pitched decently against Arizona the last time they faced, and since he's been hot lately is worth a look. 

Saturday: Greg Smith against New York is an interesting spot start, since ordinarily the Yankees aren't your ideal "roll-over-and-die" opponent. However, their problems with lefty pitchers are so great they are seriously considering adding Richie Sexson, so... Gavin Floyd against the Royals is a traditional start, and he might be available in some leagues due to the recent inflation of his ERA.

Sunday: Andrew Miller dominated the Phillies the last time they faced, and as long as the game is in Florida I trust him to have some K-upside and decent peripherals. San Francisco is another traditional spot start opponent, but Manny Parra's road woes are a concern of mine. Career numbers of Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield also ward me away from their starts at Arizona and Anaheim, respectively. 

Strategic Spot Starting: Weekend Edition

Well, the start I'll be most interested in is Rich Harden's, though I agree with some of the responses on MLBTradeRumors.com that Harden should be rested through the break and Marshall should be given that additional start. But since Harden shouldn't be available on your waiver wire (and if so you need a far more competitive league), who might fill your start spotter cravings?

Friday: Manny Parra, he of the 2.70 home ERA, faces Cincinnati for the first time in his career. I think the Reds will struggle with the young starter, so there is a lot of upside in the start. Jon Garland is coming off a complete-game, one run win over Toronto, and faces Oakland (his second most recent start was against them, where he struck out six while giving up two earned). On the other end of this match is Sean Gallagher in his first start wearing green. I think he will be great in Oakland, if not this year then next, and he should be added while he tests out the Even-More-Pitcher-Friendly Confines. I think he'll get the win and those strikeouts are encouraging. Kyle Lohse has a career ERA of 2.51 against Pittsburgh, though their lineup has been decent as of late so I don't consider them the automatic W. Somewhat surprisingly, Aaron Cook has faced the Mets already twice this year, and faired pretty well though his stuff isn't the kind that should breeze through that lineup nine times.

Saturday: Gil Meche faces his former team when he goes up against Seattle, who struggles with righties this year. Tim Wakefield against Baltimore is a solid start, as he's been solid at Fenway thus far. Hiroki Kuroda, while on a roll, doesn't have a great matchup against the fish, who hit well on the road and against righties. Jesse Litsch (Yankees) and Dana Eveland (Angels) are always good risks, but they face great offenses.

Sunday: Don't start Andrew Miller or Nick Blackburn; just start your All Star Break a little early, and hopefully with a good chance of winning your league.

Strategic Spot Starting: Week Edition

I have been helping out with a blog for my "real" job, so I'm a bit swamped and haven't been able to post position rankings. I have done most of the work for all the infield positions, so I'll leave it to you guys when it comes to which position to start with. I'd prefer to do a "Middle Infield" or a "Corner Infield" week, so what's your pick? In the meantime, lets look at some spot starters...

Monday: I'm going to assume that Matt Garza is now owned by all, but if not please add him against the Royals. Dana Eveland looks solid pitching at SafeCo, and is one of my favorite spot starters. With a 3-4 punch of switch hitters, Atlanta isn't weak against either a LHP or a RHP, though I don't mind starting Hiroki Kuroda at home against them, especially after his brilliant return from the DL last start. San Diego is weaker against lefty, so the righty Ricky Nolasco is a shaky start, though better than most with Petco behind him. If you didn't notice, I've started listing players in order of their "startability"

Tuesday: Once again, I'll start with a name that should be owned: Jair Jurrjens. His start against the Dodgers should be a good one as they struggle with righties. Possibly better, but in the long run not as worthy of owning, is Adam Miller against the Padres. Jose Contreras might also be owned, but has good career numbers against Kansas City, who also struggle with RHPs. Manny Parra probably won't get his scheduled start tomorrow due to the introduction of C.C. Sabathia, though if he faces Colorado at home ever, he should be owned.

Wendesday: Seattle is awful against righties, but they will face one in Joe Blanton, who might find himself traded with a couple hot starts. Scott Olsen is the third fish to be profiled, due primarily to the upside of pitching in San Diego, against a team team he's had success against. I'm unsure on Micah Owings and Garrett Olsen, who on paper seem to have good starts but there are question marks (bad career numbers for both, plus Owings pitched in relief since his last start, which can disrupt rhythm). 

Thursday: Kevin Slowey shut down the Tigers last time they faced, though I'd temper expectations for too similar of a performance. Darrell Rasner was my spot starter of the edition last time he faced the Pirates, but blew it with a seven runs in five innings implosion. If you need a starter though, I just can't see the Pirates pulling that off again. While Eveland profiles well against Seattle, Greg Smith as a southpaw might not have such luck. 

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

Starting the fourth of July, this will be the last spot starting article until after the All Star Break. As the Rays try to hold onto a win over the Red Sox, capping a three game sweep of the defending champions, one must wonder what the future holds. At the very least, we should be able to designate most teams as buyers or sellers for the deadline, and the rumors should start flying. I guess I shouldn't get ahead of myself...

Friday: Jonathon Sanchez shouldn't be owned in your league, but if he is his matchup against Joe Torre's Dodgers should be a pretty one. On the other side of that matchup is Derek Lowe, who also shouldn't be available was was when I checked my shallowest league. To be sure, I promptly added him. That's it for the kickoff of the weekend, as everyone else is a huge risk.

Saturday: I like Kevin Slowey, but as a righty his matchup vs. Cleveland is iffy. In very deep leagues, Eric Hurley should complement Slowey as pitchers with great names. Also a righty, Hurley should succeed against Baltimore, though I don't particularly trust young pitchers on the road. Its really not a great weekend for spot starting.

Sunday: Aaron Cook is here weekly, because he's only worth having if he's going to win, which he does way more frequently than his skill set would predict. I don't think he'll beat Florida at home, because they crush the ball against righties and the box score could look more like a gas bill. Jesse Litsch against the Angels is nice, especially since they can't seem to hit the ball while playing at home. Eric Stults, the new edition of the Dodgers rotation, will face San Francisco, where he's worth a look. Jeff Suppan of the BrewCrew faces the Pirates, so he should get the win.

Strategic Spot Starters: Week Edition

Well, this is a tool that fits just perfectly into our Pitchers Week. The Weekend Edition was just terrible, with the exception of only a few pitchers (Kevin Slowey, Jonathon Sanchez, maybe a handful others). Hopefully I will have better luck through Thursday...

Monday: The first day of the week doesn't have a lot of options, though one game offers two. Jon Garland has pitch best on the road, while Greg Smith does worlds better in Oakland, so of course their game is in Anaheim. There is really no one else worth considering, so you are better off waiting until later in the week to start someone.

Tuesday: I've given in, and now consider Matt Garza worth considering despite his matchup. While pitching at home he has a 2.51 ERA, though I still don't love him going against Boston. Jesse Litsch at Seattle is a much better option, and in leagues where one is available, the other might be too. Aaron Cook against San Diego is a decent option even at Coors Stadium.

Wednesday: Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched to the tune of a sub-3.00 ERA at home, so against San Diego he is a good start. Gil Meche against Baltimore is a decent option, though they rocked him the last outing. Daniel Cabrera should be a good option in the same game, but I don't trust him against an improving Royals offense.

Thursday: Sean Gallagher should do fine against the anemic San Fran offense. And its a good thing he's probably available, because he's the only guy worth considering.

Second Half Hitters - The Hot Corners

We've done a lot with splits so far this year, but it always bears repeating. This is the time of year to unload certain players and target others in return - sell high and buy low, remember? It's going to be a lot easier to do this in the next week or so, because Matthew Berry at ESPN has already written about first and second half splits. Once the major fantasy analysts pick it up, the other owners in your league won't be nearly as willing to talk trades. So here a few names to start with:

First Basemen: Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder have already been documented as guys to buy for the second half. Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau are the two ultimate sell guys - both are notorious weak second-half hitters. But did you know that in 100 fewer games post-All-Star Break, Lance Berkman has 50 fewer HR and 165 fewer RBI? His average generally holds but the power slows down as the season drags on. And I know he's hurt, but last season, Carlos Pena hit 26 of his HR after the All-Star Break. Over his career, his OPS goes up over 100 points in the season's second half. He's been such a disappointment that he could be worth stashing and prove to be a valuable player for both Tampa and you.

Third Basemen: On the other side of the diamond, the underwhelming David Wright is probably worth buying. He had a .364 second half last season. More importantly, the Met schedule for July, August, and September includes a lot of Pittsburgh and Washington. I'm at a loss to explain Jorge Cantu or Ramon Vazquez, and really can't advocate keeping either one for a second half. Neither has a track record of success, and though both are on good teams, I just see too much risk in holding on to them. And Aramis Ramirez, who's been hot recently, has 118 homers before the All-Star Break, and another 118 after... in 150 fewer games. 

Check back for the middle infield and the rest of the diamond, and look for a second half pitchers report down the road. And of course, we'll continue to highlight individuals with Trendspottings. So good luck on your mid-season maneuvering!

Strategic Spot Starting: Week Edition

This is going to be a bit more analytical than most Spot Starting Tools. I'd like to look at some team hitting, and profile the worst OPS (here approximating run generation) in the splits. So first, let's look at "vs. LHP" and "vs. RHP" across the majors (data gathered here):

• Six teams have an OPS under seven hundred against LHP - Toronto (worst at .641), Oakland, Minnesota, Washington, Florida, and San Diego. Cleveland just beats the mark at .701. This provides two news teams worth streaming against, Florida and Cleveland, as long as the pitcher is a southpaw.
• Four teams have an OPS on the wrong side of that mark against righties - Seattle (.663), Washington, Kansas City, and the L.A. Dodgers. Cincinnati and San Diego just beat the mark at .701. I would say that the Dodgers and the Reds are additions to the list.
• Against lefties, San Francisco, Colorado, and Baltimore are among the top ten, with Baltimore posting an OPS of .800 as a team. Against righties, Florida is killing the ball, so their splits are pretty drastic. Needless to say, these matchups shouldn't be targeted.

Another important split for team hitting is Home vs. Away. A lot of this can be summed up by park biases, which we normally include intuitively, but the numbers provide some additional insight.

• Only two teams post a sub-.700 OPS at home, which isn't much of a surprise. However, one of those teams is the Angels, who provide an additional option. No one else in the bottom ten is much of a surprise.
• A full third of the league hits below .700 on the road, with notable teams including Houston (.669), Arizona (.679), and Detroit (.685). Somehow, Pittsburgh is killing the ball on the road, as well as Florida and St. Louis.

So on to this week's options. Take that data with a grain of salt, because most factors overlap and may disguise or exaggerate team batting weaknesses. Still, it's better to be aware of what might be than start RHPs against the Marlins.

Monday: Brian Bannister is the only worthy spot starter, pitching at home against Colorado. He has been the Ervin Santana of years past, posting a 2.80 ERA at home compared to a 7.78 ERA away from home. Bannister is a righty and the Rockies have been predictably bad away from Coors, so I'd use him despite his recent struggles.

Tuesday: Weekly favorite Justin Masterson goes up against the Diamondbacks at Fenway. Darrell Rasner faces the Pirates at PNC Park, so that should be a gem and a likely win. Kevin Slowey gets the safety of Petco and the anemia of the Padres, so I like his chances their also. And the addition our stats would indicate is Jonathon Sanchez, the southpaw, against Cleveland. Jon Garland ain't to shabby on the road against Washington (the other team with a home OPS under .700), where he will also provide a likely win.

Wednesday: Wakefield at Fenway is always good, and against the Diamondbacks should be better. Greg Maddux at home is usually safe, and while the splits don't point to the Twins as an especially favorable matchup, it is at a pitchers park.

Thursday: Mike Mussina is a good bet against the Pirates, while the righty Jesse Litsch should succeed against the Reds away from the Great American Ballpark. Beware of other seemingly ideal matchups such as Garza against the Fish, because it doesn't look like a sunny forecast.

Strategic Spot Starting - Weekend Edition

There is a reason I do this series rather than Pete. As I mentioned, we are playing only are second head-to-head series in an ESPN league, and right now, we are dead tied at seven categories a piece. While he is narrowly beating me in every offensive category (the loss of Soriano is missed), I have taken significant leads in each pitching category. So who should he pick up to have a chance?

Friday: Mike Mussina against Cincinnati should be good for a win, as the Yankees have been on fire lately. Suppan against Baltimore and Millwood at Washington are the only matchups I'd otherwise consider, as the Tim Wakefield-St. Louis matchup scares me a little. Of those two, Suppan has been the better pitcher as of late with an ERA below two while pitching at home.

Saturday: Gil Meche at San Francisco seems obvious, but he has struggled at home and everyone must come to terms with the unexpected decency of San Francisco hitters. Jesse Litsch against the Pirates is a similar story, though I like the latter's stuff enough to warrant a start. Hopefully, Dana Eveland is owned, but if not I'd consider playing him against Florida since a home game should limit the Fish Fire Power. Finally, Nick Blackburn at home is always a good matchup, and going up against the Diamondbacks offense is no exception. Coincidently, I like each of these starts in the reverse order that they were presented.

Sunday: Just as Dana Eveland should be owned, and will benefit from Oakland's ballpark, so should Andrew Miller. He's facing Duchscherer, so the win isn't probable, but strikeouts and quality innings should be there. Manny Parra faces off against Garrett Olson, and both are worthy of a pick up although Parra looks best with that 2.47 home ERA. 

Need Help?

Sigh. Soriano went down. I know this happened a few days ago now, but I really thought that his hand would miraculously heal, he would be back in the lineup, and he would continue the pace that warranted an early second round pick. All the while, the Cubs would acquire A.J. Burnett, dominate every game against the Cardinals, and undo 100 years of misery. But since this didn't happen, I thought I'd look at some options to replace an underperforming 2008 outfield class...

30% or less available: First off, I figure I should explain that I looked at these guys as a function of their ownership. Shallow leagues might have a few of the following names, while each increase in percent available reflects a different size league. Brad Hawpe is one interesting consideration. He's available in only fifteen percent of leagues (ESPN used for this stat) but has hit four homeruns since returning from the DL. Jeremy Hermida is a bit more available (23%) and could begin hitting for more power as his HR/FB comes closer to last season's number as it should be a younger player. As Holliday regains his form and Tulowitzki soon returns, he could be a force down the line. Nick Swisher, Delmon Young, and Willy Taveras are also available in shallow leagues, but I'm optimistic about none of them. The BABIP isn't far out of line with their career numbers and while Taveras will steal a ton of bases, he offers little else.

70% or less available: Lastings Milledge and Melky Cabrera, who I like to think of as the same player, offer the kind of production I like from a fill-in, balanced across the board. Both should see their averages increase while the BABIP come closer to league average. Luke Scott was a bit of a sleeper of mine heading into the season, and could see his RBIs increase once the Orioles ship him off. While its tough to predict his homers, the eleven so far this year has not been an anomaly and his splits are right in line with previous seasons. I like any of them more than Cuddyer or Mathews Jr., who have more name recognition but have some injury concerns. Andre Ethier, although a good producer while not platooning, is a bit overrated in my opinion and isn't as good as some of the names to follow.

Deep Leagues: These guys are owned in less than 20% of the leagues, and many are snubbed in circles as well read as our fantasy blogger league (12 players, expanded rosters). The first name that stands out is David DeJesus. He was a favorite of both Pete and myself heading into last season, but disappointed owners. This year, his late start has already yielded seven homers and five steals, and he could easily add ten to each category by the end of the season while contributing a .290ish average and solid run production. Jason Kubel also deserves a look, mostly due to his solid second half last season during which his OPS sat at .891. Jim Edmonds has three straight multi-hit games and has hit over three hundred since joining the Cubs. At Wrigley that average is .360, so he's enjoying the friendly confines while picking up RBIs.

Are there any other names that interest you? I'd love to run to some numbers to add to this list.

Strategic Spot Starting - Week Edition

I get to play Pete this week in our head-to-head league, and he desperately needs a good outing for a playoff run (I, on the other hand, appear to have my spot surely with half a season to go). Unfortunately, I don't idolize Pete Rose, so hopefully these names will be as much use to me as they will to you.

Monday: Andrew Miller pitcher to the tune of 2.43 ERA in May, but hasn't panned out so far in June. His outing at Safeco should be a return to his sunnier days. No one else should be used; I even dropped Bartolo Colon in lieu of his start at Philadelphia. 

Tuesday: Garrett Olson has an ERA under three at home, but I'm apprehensive about his start versus the Astros. With about a .1 HR/IP, it's not a terrible matchup. Jonathan Sanchez against Detroit could work, since Clayton Kershaw piloted the "young strikeout pitcher" to the tune of four scoreless innings. Like Olson, Manny Parra has been lights out at home, and his matchup against Toronto might be the best start of the bunch.

Wednesday: Hiroki Kuroda was successful against the Reds in his last start, though he's truly a risk given his past three starts. (6 ER in 2.2 IP, complete game shutout, 6 ER in 2.1 IP). Darrell Rasner against the Padres is appealing as is Kevin Slower against the Nationals. Both should give quality innings but offer little in the way of strikeouts. 

Thursday: Sean Gallagher and Shawn Hill are risky starts at TB and MIN respectively. Hill really hasn't played well enough to warrant pickups though. Greg Smith at Arizona worries me a bit despite my touting of him.

Strategic Spot Starting - Weekend Edition

This is an ominous weekend upcoming, starting with a Friday the 13th. Now I'm not superstitious, though I didn't touch a razor for the entire Stanley Cup Playoffs...

Friday: The surprisingly effective Justin Masterson faces Cincinnati at Great American Ballpark. That lineup, with Bruce, Phillips, Dunn, Votto, Griffey, etc., makes for a difficult match-up, but the Boston lineup could well get him a victory anyhow if you're desperate for wins. Greg Smith against San Francisco and Jon Garland in Atlanta are much better match-ups and should produce good stats and victories. 

Saturday: Masterson's teammate, Tim Wakefield, is also a decent pickup against Cincy. Jeff Suppan against Minnesota and Tim Redding at Seattle are also decent match-ups. I would normally recommend Matt Garza, but not against Florida, and I can't in good conscience recommend Mike Mussina in Houston, even though he pitched well his last start.

Sunday: Finally, some match-ups worth playing. Micah Owings against the always-mediocre Kansas City Royals and Greg Maddux against a Cleveland lineup that just has no punch this season are both excellent starts. I'm okay with Daniel Cabrera against Pittsburgh, because you can count on the Pirates to rack up the strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw seems to be settling in to the big leagues, but against Detroit probably isn't the best place for him to progress. 

So overall, there aren't too many stellar options this weekend. Depending on your needs, though, there is - as always - plenty of potential for break out performances. Best of luck in your match-ups this weekend.

Strategic Spot Starting - Weekend Edition

First, I'd like to recommend our home site, MLBFrontOffice, for live blogging of the baseball draft. It should be interesting, especially if the Pirates fail to take Pedro Alvarez and I lose all faith in my home team. But our post is about pitchers, and pitchers we shall look...

Friday: I'm not a huge fan of Joe Blanton, but his matchup in Anaheim isn't too shabby (career ERA 3.56, likely lack of Guerrero in addition to Figgins). On the other side of town, Sean Gallagher goes up against the Dodgers, who have been lackluster and play in a pitchers park. Darrell Rasner against KC is a fairly safe bet, alongside Bartolo Colon in Seattle. Both should be good for solid peripherals and the win. Andrew Miller is an okay option in deep leagues, facing the Reds. Miller pitched well against high power, low OBP teams like Arizona, so he could be worth using there. 

Saturday: Tim Wakefield against Seattle: He is the poster child for spot starts (last start against Seattle, 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks). With four straight games of giving up 2 ER in 6+ IP, Jonathon Sanchez will likely do just that against Washington. Shawn Hill is his opponent, and offers decent value in the start, but not as much as Sanchez. Yahoo constantly reminds me that Greg Smith has been dropped in eighty-five millions leagues, but Texas was clearly a bad matchup and the Angels aren't nearly as rough.

Sunday: Masterson, like all of the Red Sox pitchers, is worth using against Seattle. Garza at Texas is Greg Smith at Texas (read above: Spoiler - won't be pretty).

Strategic Spot Starting - Week Edition

As our viewership increased, I realized that many reader's might actually come to Rotonomics for more than the editorials. This is good, but I don't think we've been providing the overall assistance such a circumstance demands. Hence, this is our version of "Waiver Wired"--but focusing on spot starters over the course of a week. Unfortunately, I didn't think of this until today, but in the future it will be up Sunday for those of you in weekly leagues.

Monday

Don't be fooled by Wilfredo Ledezma's ridiculous name or low ERA, his WHIP and walk rate paint an entirely different pitcher. I don't mind the home matchup, but at this point in the week there is no use being desperate. Jon Lester is a subpar start against the Royals, despite the latter representing the worst offense in baseball. If you're desperate, he's your man, but I wouldn't take the risk.

Tuesday

There are a lot of options on the second day of the week. Justin Masterson is spot starting for the BoSox and is must add in keeper leagues. Mike Mussina has a nice matchup at home against the O's and has been solid his past three starts. Aaron Cook, Greg Smith, and Manny Parra are all decent adds and I'd consider any of them. If Greg Maddux isn't owned, his home stats have been solid and I expect success against one-time division rival the Cardinals.

Wednesday

Ubaldo Jimenez faces the Giants, but has a career ERA against the team of 4.35. Hopefully someone has picked up Dana Eveland in your league, but his home matchup against the Rays could be a gem. Darrell Rasner is worth a look against the Orioles, but isn't nearly as good as any of the Tuesday slots. I'm not a huge Bartolo Colon believer, but his first three starts would include Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore if he holds his every fifth day spot. 

Thursday

Last time Vincente Padilla played the Twins, he tossed a complete game shutout. Against the meager offense in Minnesota, he is a pretty safe bet with a career ERA of 2.81.

Check back Thursday for a look at the spot starts over the weekend. Things could change before then, so it's easier just to post closer to the point.