Mythbusters: Paying For Closers

You've heard it, and so have we. The perennial advice of every draft strategy article campaigns against the early drafting of closers. "Just don't do it," they warn, "you'll regret it for the rest of your life." This may be a little extreme, but if you read those articles, you'll realize that its pretty close to reality. And if you read our articles, you'll realize we dislike this strategy. In Rotonomics preseason analysis, we recommended drafting upwards of five closers, building an early lead in saves, and selling high on as many as you can spare once teams get prematurely desperate for saves. So who was right in their suggestion? Enter Rotonomics vs. The Fantasy Baseball World...

So how shall we look at this myth? Well, since I'm poor I can't do what I had wanted to do, which is to compare end season Yahoo! rankings in 2007 with preseason MockDraftCentral ADP (included only in the premium membership) for the year. Instead, we will have to settle for the same strategy, applied during the current 2008 season. I know, you're probably bummed settling for more relevant information far more statistically volatile.

So looking at it by Tier, the ADP had the first tier of Papelbon, Putz, Rodriguez, and Nathan with an average of 51. Obviously, Putz has been a complete bust thus far, so lets consider the first tier with a bust rate of 25%. The average current rankings of these players is one round higher, at 61. Not one of the four players beat their draft pick, suggesting they were all overrated.

What about the rest of the draft board? Looking at the middle tiers (all but the last) it gets a bit more interesting. The ADP of the middle tiers was about 88, but their average performance was 116, more than two rounds higher. I can't even pinpoint a definitive bust, though Jose Valverde, Huston Street, and Trevor Hoffman all painfully underperformed their draft position. The only player to beat their draft position was Mariano Rivera.

Historically, how have closers been by year's end? Well, in 2007, only two closers should have gone in the first four round (with year end rank below 48), while two more would have gone in the round after that. In 2006, five closers should have gone in those first four rounds, while three more would have gone in the fifth. In other words, the fourth round is fine value for the best closers, provided you choose the right ones. So far it's not looking that way this year, but I expect the rankings will come around.

Finally, how bout those bottom tier closers? Of the seventeen closers not already taken, six have been complete busts, either spending much of the year injured or outright losing their job. The rest? Most (64%) have beat out their draft position, some by as many as three rounds, with Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, and Troy Percival being some of the best buys. And in place of many of those busts, quality arms have risen to the occasion to be picked off of the waiver wire, such as Jon Rauch, Brandon Morrow, and Salomon Torres.

So the verdict? You are only overpaying for saves if you pick a player who busts. Unfortunately, this is usually the result of an unpredictable injury, as is the case with J.J. Putz this season. But at a bust rate of 25%, its the same as top round players, so bust rate shouldn't be the concern. However, I still don't advise taking top tier closers. Because it is such a small tier, and the demand is so high, the "price" is inflated. It isn't until the bottom tier where the best value can be had. No scarcity means every manager is content just waiting for a late round run, and so grabbing those guys comes at pretty much no cost (ironically, starting a closer run where almost every pick in the round is a closer means you got your guy while that position player you hoped would come around has a very good chance of doing just that). And if you look at the numbers, guys like Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood are easy targets. Plus you can always fall back on the waiver wire or trading for someone's surplus.

The Day in Review

Hey all, hope you had a great Fourth! Here's the news from the baseball world if you didn't get to enjoy any games.

Injury News

• There are some names, but no big ones. Johnny Damon has a bum shoulder and could hit the DL. The Rockies just put Todd Helton on the DL. And Jeff Francoeur has been sent to Double-A to try to break out of a slump - to me, this is not too different from a DL stint for him.

Notable Performances

• Boy, what an offensive explosion in Colorado. Matt Holliday had two HR, one of which was a grand slam, to pace last year's World Series loser.
• Andre Ethier's 3-RBI game led the Dodgers, Delmon Young had 4 RBI for Minnesota, Adam Jones drove in a couple for Baltimore, and Carlos Pena drove in 5 for Tampa as six teams scored double digits. 
• Carlos Zambrano is back, and he struck out five Cardinals in six innings for a victory. 

That's what you need to know about the day.

The Day in Review

I thought I'd start with a topic of interest - C.C. Sabathia rumors. My personal feelings for where he will end up look like this: Dodgers (most likely), Brewers, Rays, Cubs. The Dodgers were interested in Santana in the offseason, and have to look at the N.L. West as anyone's for the taking. The Brewers are conservative with their talent, smartly opting to hold onto starting pitching that was once considered a surplus, but know that a complement to Sheets is a necessity. The Rays should make the deal, but I believe they recognize that their system is working and that major rental acquisitions runs counter to that. The Cubs will pay everything, but only if these teams fail to pay first. As a Sabathia owner, you should root for him to end up in L.A. (but if you are a true baseball fan, a team could better use the pitcher to end a 100 year drought).

Injury News:

• Rafael Furcal needed back surgery after a setback and will be out until around September. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets shut down for the season, though I'm not sure the pending free agent would be happy with that plan.
• Luis Castillo hit the DL, which means very little right now since everyone will be out a week for the All Star Break.

Notable Performances:

• After I touted him in our closer rankings, Salomon Torres contribute to Arizona's comeback six run ninth. Two of those runs were earned against the current closer, while Gagne pitched a perfect eighth.
• Brandon Webb gave up the five runs that the Diamondbacks waited until the last moment to overcome. He struck out six, which is encouraging, and is worth trying to buy.
• Jon Lester threw a complete game shutout against the Yankees. Since the beginning of May, he's thrown all but one quality start, while walking no more than three batters (and only three batters in all of June combined). I've added him to our pitcher rankings.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Midseason Rankings: Closers

On to the next position, and I'll be honest, this was the most challenging I've drafted so far. Closers so frequently lose their jobs to poor performance or injury that projecting them usually proves impossible; just ask anyone who paid dearly for J.J. Putz. Because this isn't an easy task, please comment where you see fit (last rankings' fifteen posts was a record for our site, but one we hope to break regularly).

Tier One:

• Jonathon Papelbon
• Francisco Rodriguez
• Joe Nathan
• Mariano Rivera

Truth is, I don't trust Rivera in that tier, but his numbers are just insane. Since 2003, he hasn't had an ERA above 2.00 save but one year. Of course, since that year was last, many of us "experts" had written him off. While K-Rod has ten more saves than Papelbon, the latter has 10 more strikeouts in fewer innings, while posting significantly better WHIP and K/BB numbers. In fact, I'm more confident that Papelbon will be the better bet going forward than I am in Nathan providing more value than Rivera.

Tier Two:

• Brad Lidge
• Kerry Wood
• Billy Wagner
• Joakim Soria

These are the names we recommended targeting on draft day, and we did not fail you (picking sleeper closers is probably my sixth sense). I'm a Cubs fan so it seems wrong not having Kerry Wood at the top of this list, because he will probably get more saves than the other three names. All these teams look to be buyers at the break with the exception of the Royals, who don't plan on giving up the kind of impact bat that has been keeping them in games.

Tier Three:

• Takashi Saito
• Bobby Jenks

Shortest tier probably ever. While Saito has only blown three saves, he has only been handed 16 save opportunities (you do the math). Jenks isn't a strikeout machine, but has solid peripherals and is on a pretty good team. Since its strikeouts that make a fantasy closer elite, and since you depend on saves from this position alone, these guys don't make tier two, but have fewer question marks than tier four.

Tier Four:

• Francisco Cordero
• Jason Isringhausen
• Huston Street
• Salomon Torres
• B. J. Ryan
• Kevin Gregg
• Jon Rauch
• Jose Valverde
• Mike Gonzalez

Cordero almost makes tier three, but the Reds are going to be sellers and that offense could struggle without Dunn and Griffey, even if both have been underperforming. After Isringhausen broke down (insert any adverb), he has been lights out in June on a solid team. Torres and Gonzalez will have to perform to hold their jobs, but are the better options over their injury-prone counterparts and have been solid thus far (Torres's ERA since taking over? A tad over 1.50, but his K's haven't been there). Street is on a good team that will hand him opportunities, which he will gladly blow until the A's trade him, a fate much more likely for Jon Rauch.

Tier Five:

• Brandon Morrow
• George Sherrill
• Troy Percival
• Trevor Hoffman
• Brian Wilson
• Brian Fuentes
• Todd Jones
• Brandon Lyon
• C. J. Wilson
• Damaso Marte
• Joe Borowski

Here's how I look at these guys... Poor Performance: Hoffman, Wilson, Jones, Lyon, Wilson, Borowski (with Zumaya, Pena, and Betancourt/Kobayashi ready to step in for some). Likely Traded: Sherrill, Fuentes, Marte. Injury Concerns: Percival. Morrow is the only guy not tainted on this list, but at some point the M's have to hand the job back to Putz; I think it will be later than you'd expect.

Strategic Spot Starters: Weekend Edition

Starting the fourth of July, this will be the last spot starting article until after the All Star Break. As the Rays try to hold onto a win over the Red Sox, capping a three game sweep of the defending champions, one must wonder what the future holds. At the very least, we should be able to designate most teams as buyers or sellers for the deadline, and the rumors should start flying. I guess I shouldn't get ahead of myself...

Friday: Jonathon Sanchez shouldn't be owned in your league, but if he is his matchup against Joe Torre's Dodgers should be a pretty one. On the other side of that matchup is Derek Lowe, who also shouldn't be available was was when I checked my shallowest league. To be sure, I promptly added him. That's it for the kickoff of the weekend, as everyone else is a huge risk.

Saturday: I like Kevin Slowey, but as a righty his matchup vs. Cleveland is iffy. In very deep leagues, Eric Hurley should complement Slowey as pitchers with great names. Also a righty, Hurley should succeed against Baltimore, though I don't particularly trust young pitchers on the road. Its really not a great weekend for spot starting.

Sunday: Aaron Cook is here weekly, because he's only worth having if he's going to win, which he does way more frequently than his skill set would predict. I don't think he'll beat Florida at home, because they crush the ball against righties and the box score could look more like a gas bill. Jesse Litsch against the Angels is nice, especially since they can't seem to hit the ball while playing at home. Eric Stults, the new edition of the Dodgers rotation, will face San Francisco, where he's worth a look. Jeff Suppan of the BrewCrew faces the Pirates, so he should get the win.

The Day in Review

Well guys, it's a sad day in Pittsburgh, as Marian Hossa spurned the Pens for the team that just beat them in the Cup Finals. I, for one, am angry. 

I'm sorry for the consistent hockey talk. You have to understand that the Pirates are so bad, I can't focus on them for more than 35 seconds without fits of anger. On to the rest of baseball...

Injury News

• Well, actually, I'm starting in Pittsburgh. Closer Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with bursitis in his right shoulder. Is this why he's been pitching poorly lately, or because? I'm always suspicious. Either way, he's out 8 weeks. Damaso Marte is the recommended add if you need saves, but he's a risk to be dealt, so monitor the situation. 
• Troy Percival officially hit the Tampa DL. Dan Wheeler could grab some cheap saves while he's out.
• Jeff Francis is on the DL for Colorado. He hasn't been nearly as effective this year as he was in 2007, and maybe this shoulder inflammation has something to do with it.

Notable Performances

• The Yankees put up 18(!) on Texas. Jason Giambi had a HR and drove in 6, while A-Rod had a homer, scored 4, and drove in 3. Josh Hamilton drove in 2 for Texas to bring his RBI total to 82.
• Xavier Nady and Jay Bruce each had two homers, but Pittsburgh bested Cincinnati. 
• Tampa came back against Boston on the strength of Evan Longoria's 3-hit, 3-RBI night.
• Daniel Cabrera threw his second complete game against Kansas City this season, getting the win but striking out only two. He didn't have a great June, but of course his talent level is maddening.
• Garrett Atkins homered and drove in 4 for Colorado today. 

So I know it's early, I'll update based on late games if needed. The only other news is Clayton Kershaw was sent down by LA. We'll see when he re-surfaces next. Finally, keep an eye on the site, as we should have closer rankings up in the near future. Closers are pretty tough to rank, so we'll look for all the input we can get.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Trendspotting: Adam LaRoche, Justin Morneau

Okay, okay. I know this isn't groundbreaking news, but it's nearly the All-Star Break, so it's time to bring up a couple names with dramatic first/second half splits. These two first basemen top the charts - Morneau is the classic first-half player, while LaRoche is the ultimate second-half guy. Let's talk for a moment about each in 2008.

Adam LaRoche: The Pirate first baseman has finally found his stroke. As the Bucco announcers pointed out when he hit a scorcher down the first base-line that was just fair... "In April and May, those [types of hits] were going foul. Now that it's July, they are fair balls that drive in runs." Post-Break numbers, career: .893 OPS (compare to .756 in the first half), .296 average (.249 first half), and 46 HR (48 first half in 120 more games!!). Granted, he shouldn't take the place of an elite player on your roster. But if you're struggling to recover from a David Ortiz injury, or drafting Travis Hafner or Paul Konerko, you ought to take a chance on LaRoche. He's only owned in 14.4% of ESPN standard leagues - I'm sorry, but that's just silly. Grab him while you still can, and if you have an elite, look to make a move to upgrade a weakness (try to pick up Jake Peavy or Johan Santana to give yourself an ace for the stretch run, if their owners are looking to trade their underperforming studs). 

Justin Morneau: I'd love to say something new about Morneau, like "this is the year he's going to have a killer second half, so you should grab him from the nervous owner who wants to deal him," but the numbers unfortunately do not support such a sentiment. For those unfamiliar with his splits, Morneau's career OPS drops nearly a hundred points and his batting average drops 25 points after the break. His homers generally decrease as well, although he hasn't been hitting the ball out of the ballpark as well this year. I can pretty much guarantee that he'll have a similar letdown this season, not because of his past, but because his BABIP this year is 50 points above his career average (.345, as compared to a .296 career figure). His numbers so far, in a mediocre year, have been as much about good luck as anything else. This just isn't the year for the Minnesota slugger, and if you have him, I'd advise you to move him for whatever you can.

The Day in Review

How bout those Rays? Now up two and a half games over Boston, I might have to agree with Skip Bayliss that they may complete the sweep. And I hate agreeing with Skip, he projected John Maine as the ace of the Mets after the Santana acquisition. I guess if you make really controversial remarks, and get the occasional correct, you can run ESPN talk shows?

Injury News:

• Felix Hernandez didn't expect to miss a single start, but now sits on the DL with a sprained ankle. Rest off for slight injury like this is normally beneficial to overall performance.
• Troy Percival will probably hit the DL after arguing to pitch through a hamstring issue. 
• Chipper Jones won't hit the DL, and instead batted today, going 1-3 which of course lowers his batting average.
• Brett Myers, who it felt wrong not ranking (along with Rich Hill, both of which I loved heading into the season) accepted a minor league assignment and won't be around for awhile.

Notable Performances:

• Aaron Cook shut out the Padres, requiring only 79 pitches to get through the complete game. It is because of this efficiency that he'd be such an asset to a contender, but the Rockies won't move him.
• Ian Kinsler stole three bases, bringing his total to 23. I think he'll steal 40 bags this season.
• Hanley Ramirez hit his twentieth homerun and accumulated five ribbies on the night.
• Russell Martin, who as a catcher is supposed to be slowing down around now, hit his ninth homer and stole his eighth base, going 3-5 on the night.
• J.J. Hardy has two homeruns on the night, while Cory Hart has 2 steals. The Diamondbacks are just flailing.
• Randy Johnson was tagged for seven runs and no longer has fantasy relevance as far as I'm concerned.

That's what you need to know about the day.

Wisdom of Crowds: WE WANT YOUR COMMENTS

So, a couple of weeks ago, I wrote this article trying to explain the modern economic idea of the wisdom of crowds. I don't know how well I did, but in brief, here's what I was getting at:

A large group of people is consistently smarter than any of its individual members. This phenomenon occurs because everyone has information, some public and some private, some good and some bad. When you get a large enough group of people (and one that's fairly diverse - this is extremely important), everyone's bad information begins to cancel out, and you are left with only the good information. Think of it like this. I am a teacher having a jelly-bean counting contest. The people who under-guess and the people who over-guess even each other out, so if I add up everyone's guesses and take an average, it will be closer than the guess of any individual, including the kid who knows the volume of the can and the size of each jelly bean and builds a spatial model. This may seem intuitive, it may not; either way, it works consistently in the real world. Check it out if you don't believe me.

Anyway, I write that trying to encourage you to comment, especially now that we are trying to make a good set of positional rankings. Why? As smart as Zach and I are (we're the nerds measuring the volume of the jelly-bean jar), we only know so much. You, dear readers, have information that can help us. More importantly, it will help every other reader of this blog, who will in turn help you. Brandon Funston's Big Board is fun, but it's only one man's opinion. We're trying to make a board that takes every man's thoughts, because we believe such a board will give a better indication of who will do what for the rest of the season. If you'd like (let us know by commenting), we will figure out a way to track our performances against Funston's, to test the theory that many men are smarter than one.

Also, I mentioned that diversity was very important. I want to close by saying that, in my jelly bean example, the only reason a group of people gets an accurate guess is because some people under-guess while others over-guess. It is because of differing opinions that we get an accurate result. So if you disagree - if you're the one person who expects Justin Verlander to strike out 120 batters the rest of the year - say it! Tell us why! As much as we love people telling us we're right, it won't change our rankings at all. So tell us when we're wrong, have a little back-and-forth (we may have some information you didn't think about, as we saw with Pedro Martinez), or you may have a thought we didn't. Just remember, it's you that makes our rankings better for everyone by sharing your opinion with us. Keep the comments rolling and good luck as we start the second half. 

The Day in Review

June is officially ending and the All-Star Break looms on the horizon. As it gets closer, keep in mind that injured players may get time off through the three-day vacation so they'll have "extra" recovery time. Today's victims include:

Injury News

• Troy Percival has tweaked his left hamstring again. Look for Dan Wheeler to pick up a couple saves in his absence - I sorta doubt he will pitch before the break.
• Roy Oswalt strained his hip and is day-to-day. He is no longer the force he was, though, and should be fairly replaceable in many formats.
• Eric Byrnes has yet another problem with his hamstring. I'd like to see the D-Backs pick up some offense to support Brandon Webb, but we'll see how they reshuffle their lineup if Byrnes continues to miss time.
• Aramis Ramirez has family problems and will miss a few games, Chipper Jones is probably going on the DL one of these days, Juan Pierre will miss a while, and Chad Cordero is done for the year (congrats to everyone that has held on to Jon Rauch!).

Notable Performances

• A-Rod had a HR and a SB while Josh Hamilton drove in his 80th run of the season. Wow.
• Ken Griffey, Jr hit a walk-off home run to spoil a 3-RBI night by Adam LaRoche. By the way, LaRoche is a career .300 hitter who slugs around .900 for his career after the All-Star Break. Just saying.
• Josh Willingham hit two HR including a walk-off. Mark DeRosa had 2 HR for the Cubs in a big offensive night. Nick Swisher, though, had the top night, with a grand slam and a solo shot. 
• Roy Halladay had a CG shutout of the Mariners, while Greg Smith gave up one run while going the distance against the Angels.

Keep up the comments, everyone - that's why we do this! That's what you need to know about the day.